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Fail Better

  • #3,261
  • Apr 17, 2012 2:21am Apr 17, 2012 2:21am
http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...ER17042012.jpg
  • #3,262
  • Edited 2:50am Apr 17, 2012 2:40am | Edited 2:50am
Had to post this one. Resistance level and SFP on the daily. Bounce on the 1hr.

Ignore the arrow, it's not meant to be there. It's a red herring for those who don't know the secret method

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-04-17_08-27 level retest EURJPY daily.jpg Size: 130 KB
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #3,263
  • Apr 17, 2012 2:54am Apr 17, 2012 2:54am
Quoting SimonK
Had to post this one. Resistance level and SFP on the daily. Bounce on the 1hr.

Ignore the arrow, it's not meant to be there. It's a red herring for those who don't know the secret method

Attachment
Also worth noting I guess, and a trade I missed, was the H1 SFP when price came down to the daily ppz and formed that pinbar....


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-igC8VVVa8g...Y_170412_1.png
  • #3,264
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:25am Apr 17, 2012 3:25am
Quoting globaljobber
Also worth noting I guess, and a trade I missed, was the H1 SFP when price came down to the daily ppz and formed that pinbar....


http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-igC8VVVa8g...Y_170412_1.png
Yes, I took that one too!
If it's too good to be true, it probably is.
  • #3,265
  • Apr 17, 2012 3:28am Apr 17, 2012 3:28am
Quoting SimonK
Yes, I took that one too!
Well done!
  • #3,266
  • Apr 17, 2012 4:42am Apr 17, 2012 4:42am
Quoting Atc
Hey Kal,

Nice trade Jim

If I may add to your comment....the news or gurus or services all weekend were pointing out what trouble the euro was in for this week many naming certain lows .....and many were pointing out the head and shoulder pattern that had formed last week which set up this fake out leaving one with a SFP(trapping traders/retail)...the story was supported with additional bars/signals/story/signs pointing higher after the SFP to keep one in the trade. R/R was worth it ...all of the above I beilieve Tom has addressed....
I got the EUR/USD SFP yesterday. What a beautiful trade!

When I checked the calendar here at Forex Factory the first thing that caught my eye was this:

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=354624

This didn't hurt either ;-)

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=354652
  • #3,267
  • Apr 17, 2012 4:48am Apr 17, 2012 4:48am
Quoting the_wizard
When I checked the calendar here at Forex Factory the first thing that caught my eye was this:

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=354624

This didn't hurt either ;-)

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=354652
I'm going to have to overcome my reservations about taking advantage of others less on the ball... Right, now that's sorted

KERCHING!
  • #3,268
  • Apr 17, 2012 2:03pm Apr 17, 2012 2:03pm
SFP short on S&P
  • #3,269
  • Apr 17, 2012 5:40pm Apr 17, 2012 5:40pm
Quoting BadgerMatt
SFP short on S&P

So far I've mainly concentrated on trading first time back retests. I've avoided SFPs because you can't use pre-set orders to trade them. When I have traded them it hasn't gone well. Until today my track record since January was 6 SFP trades, 4 losses and 2 B/Es. This statistic was not helped by some poor choices of SFP early on.

Today was my first winning SFP trade, and was on the S&P - this is how it went. I took half profit at the first FTA and exited at the second.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-04-17 s&p h1.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #3,270
  • Apr 18, 2012 12:36am Apr 18, 2012 12:36am
Well this trade I posted yesterday flopped. News out saw the Canadian $ drop quite quickly, and shot through my H1 First Time Back setup (rightmost chart). But, worth noting was the H4 SFP/pinbar setup cirlced in pink on the mddle chart - that would have been a nice trade if I caught it, but apart from the 60% fib retrace I couldn't find any other items of confluence or SR.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qm6GIGAzJZ...D_180412_2.png
  • #3,271
  • Apr 18, 2012 1:00am Apr 18, 2012 1:00am
Thought I'd post this NZDUSD which I think is nice example of H1 SWF at the daily confluence of previous lows/closes and ascending lower trend line. Wish I saw this yesterday!

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LDKhe6n-_k...D_180412_2.png
  • #3,272
  • Apr 18, 2012 1:56am Apr 18, 2012 1:56am
I'm a little unclear as to where best placement of a Stop Loss is for a SFP trade. I seemed to read it was a H1 close below/above the last swing low/high? Could anyone clarify that for me please?
Thanks
  • #3,273
  • Apr 18, 2012 2:19am Apr 18, 2012 2:19am
I have an order in to go long on a retest of the 81.14 level in USD/JPY
  • #3,274
  • Apr 18, 2012 2:30am Apr 18, 2012 2:30am
Quoting globaljobber
I'm a little unclear as to where best placement of a Stop Loss is for a SFP trade. I seemed to read it was a H1 close below/above the last swing low/high? Could anyone clarify that for me please?
Thanks
That's pretty much it. You should exit if the H1 (or whatever timeframe you are trading off) CLOSES beyond the tip of the SFP trigger candle. This requires careful monitoring every hour. It's probably sensible to have an emergency stop in place to protect you from volatile moves. You can set this based on the ATR but ideally you should never let this get hit.
  • #3,275
  • Apr 18, 2012 2:36am Apr 18, 2012 2:36am
Quoting BadgerMatt
That's pretty much it. You should exit if the H1 (or whatever timeframe you are trading off) CLOSES beyond the tip of the SFP trigger candle. This requires careful monitoring every hour. It's probably sensible to have an emergency stop in place to protect you from volatile moves. You can set this based on the ATR but ideally you should never let this get hit.
Thanks BadgerMatt. I wondered whether one waited for a close (for a long trade) below the low of the SFP trigger candle and then use that close location as a stop loss point, or the actual SFP low itself as you point out.
  • #3,276
  • Apr 18, 2012 3:54am Apr 18, 2012 3:54am
Quoting BadgerMatt
I have an order in to go long on a retest of the 81.14 level in USD/JPY
Nice call, looks like it's doing fine. Well done. Hope you caught it.
  • #3,277
  • Apr 18, 2012 4:59am Apr 18, 2012 4:59am
Will take these trades today
sure got burnt yesterday on usd/cad ( note to self, rate decision, stay out)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fx10 17.55 Wednesday, April 18, 2012.jpg Size: 176 KB
  • #3,278
  • Apr 18, 2012 7:48am Apr 18, 2012 7:48am
Quoting globaljobber
Thanks BadgerMatt. I wondered whether one waited for a close (for a long trade) below the low of the SFP trigger candle and then use that close location as a stop loss point, or the actual SFP low itself as you point out.
...it's at that point that the sfp is invalidated and therefore the trade is closed immediately.

USDCAD recent example:

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...IL18042012.jpg
  • #3,279
  • Apr 18, 2012 7:55am Apr 18, 2012 7:55am
Quoting Quidsey
...it's at that point that the sfp is invalidated and therefore the trade is closed immediately.

USDCAD recent example:

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...IL18042012.jpg
Thanks Quidsey.

So you actually wait for the next bar that closes below the SFP candle as in your example - and then get out? (Obviously using a slightly wider 'emergency' Stop Loss because you never know how far this candle will go before it closes)??
  • #3,280
  • Apr 18, 2012 8:18am Apr 18, 2012 8:18am
Hi batata

I am still a novice trader, so please treat any advice I give with caution.

But I think only fair that I tell you that, on a very quick view, I do not think that any of the setups that you posted above (except perhaps the final USD/CAD one) are good enough to trade, at least not on the basis of the methods set out in this thread. Perhaps more experienced traders can advise you. On some of them I think you are wanting to buy what was previous support and sell what was previous resistance. And remember that you only want to trade blind touches of the very best levels, where there the most recent consecutive touches are as support (if you are selling) or as resistance (if you are buying).

If I have got the wrong end of the stick, then I apologise.
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