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  • #7,161
  • Apr 16, 2012 12:51pm Apr 16, 2012 12:51pm
lol. i dont know it could reach that far. i close my trade on 3075 because i thought that the price would end up to 1.3100-1.3115 at best. but it reached up 1.3147 now!. anyone know what makes the price shoot up just now? it goes 1hours 45 minutes past London session.

i also trade on GBP/JPY but it doesnt move much like eur/usd pair at all. is it because eur winning over gbp or what?
  • #7,162
  • Apr 16, 2012 5:46pm Apr 16, 2012 5:46pm
Quoting Vantage
Whilst I see exactly why you bought (inside bars, divergence, support area clearly seen from D, RN) the London session pa was so anemic it gives me no confidence in move up.

I'm looking for reject and move lower or I'll just be happy to say this buy got away from me (won't be the 1st time and certainly won't be the last).

All the best on this one.
EU - I stayed out on this one as well, but as I trade the H4 timeframe, I had a slightly different viewpoint. The first blue candle close showed the following: sitting right at the DPV, the RN, a significant area of previous congestion on H4 and Daily, and Weekly and Daily overall trend still down (although slight). Way too many detractors here for me to feel comfortable taking a swing trade here against the trend. I would prefer to sit on the sidelines on these moves, as this is either the beginning of a reversal following strong rejection of the 1.3000 level or we are retracing upward before another downward test of this level. Time will tell.

However, if I traded the H1, I would have probably taken this trade as well, albeit with a smaller TP and SL than normal, as I have little confidence in the sustainability of this move. A quick reversal was pretty likely as well with the evidence against the move. More of a "scalp" move to me. Congrats to all who successfully traded it!

GU - Looking at my charts this morning showed strong rejection of the 1.5820 level on the first candle close, which was very near to other areas of congestion, DPV, opposing trend. Sounds familiar? I avoided this one as well.

I am eyeing AU very closely, as I smell a breakout coming, most likely to the downside. Stall at daily low of 4.02, slight divergence leading into D trend, very long upper wicks with a lower H just formed on my charts, D and W trend is down. Currently sitting at fairly weak W resistance level, which has me slightly concerned, but I will take the trade if the volume is there.
  • #7,163
  • Edited 8:01pm Apr 16, 2012 7:55pm | Edited 8:01pm
Hi,

How do you want to trade today seeing yesterday's BULLISH OUTSIDE BAR close.

Note*** I use GMT0 server time so NY Sunday is treated as one day on its own.

I'll use S3 EU H1 method and see if market will give use 2 trades ...say 50pips each.

Remember to mark the Tokyo 5H high low.

Good Trading!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 17 Apr D BUOB 17-4-2012 8-36-15 AM.png Size: 50 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,164
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:01am Apr 17, 2012 1:01am
Hi,

Anyone took the bouce trade yesterday?
Today is another good opportunity if you watch carefully the PA.
H4 down channel
D1 rising channel

which way to go? aussie is weaker?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD week 16 17 Apr H4 view 17-4-2012 1-54-54 PM.png Size: 48 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,165
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:12am Apr 17, 2012 1:12am
Hi,
Took a trade post Tokyo sushi time.
TDI cross down earlier but with low volatility several hours.
Small TP expectation ~40pips since trading inside the BUOB D bar.
Later look out for bullish reversal setup to see if today will break yesterday' high. Target the fib-e 127% if there is reversal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 17 Apr H1 trade 17-4-2012 2-03-09 PM.png Size: 28 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,166
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:15am Apr 17, 2012 1:15am
Eurusd has some big hurdles to overcome here. Just below the present price I see W pivot, Monthly S1 and DPV + the psychological level of 1.3100.
  • #7,167
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:28am Apr 17, 2012 1:28am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,
Took a trade post Tokyo sushi time.
TDI cross down earlier but with low volatility several hours.
Small TP expectation ~40pips since trading inside the BUOB D bar.
Later look out for bullish reversal setup to see if today will break yesterday' high. Target the fib-e 127% if there is reversal.
Great posts Emmanual, as we don't see much of X Man these days (appreciate he's developing more systems) your education is much appreciated. Can you tell me what settings you use for your Price Action Channel. I use Dean Malone's 5 MA settings which are good, but yours seem better?
Waverider
  • #7,168
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:41am Apr 17, 2012 1:41am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

Anyone took the bouce trade yesterday?
Today is another good opportunity if you watch carefully the PA.
H4 down channel
D1 rising channel

which way to go? aussie is weaker?
i took that down. since h4 shows good form to go down. and still have open trade. i think it is still good to go down. but like you said if it broke the yesterday high. it could go higher since daily shows a pullback candle?(* my chart didnt shows bullish engulfing. probably different time + you include sunday bar?) h1 shows a divergence though.
  • #7,169
  • Apr 17, 2012 1:50am Apr 17, 2012 1:50am
Quoting Noosaville
Great posts Emmanual, as we don't see much of X Man these days (appreciate he's developing more systems) your education is much appreciated. Can you tell me what settings you use for your Price Action Channel. I use Dean Malone's 5 MA settings which are good, but yours seem better?
Waverider
I use the MA 5 High and Low smoothed instead of the exponential.
But is a matter of personal preference how it is use for and more important is to use it consistently.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,170
  • Edited 2:57am Apr 17, 2012 2:36am | Edited 2:57am
Quoting Liberum
Eurusd has some big hurdles to overcome here. Just below the present price I see W pivot, Monthly S1 and DPV + the psychological level of 1.3100.
The levels held so far, see if it goes for another round. And Sarkozy's comments didn't help the downtrend either.
  • #7,171
  • Apr 18, 2012 2:03am Apr 18, 2012 2:03am
Hi,

Yesterday was a disappointment with a very narrow 81pips range. Took one loss trade yesterday.
Today can be the breakout after the narrow range trading yesterday.
On W see possibility of a inverted hammer reversal formation but since this week candle is still in progress, it is not wise to anticipate this.

I am neutral on EURUSD today as there is high impact news on GBP which will affect ERURGBP and this will have some impact on how EURUSD will move.

Just wait for PA to show the way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 18 Apr H1 view 18-4-2012 2-41-44 PM.png Size: 58 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,172
  • Apr 18, 2012 2:06am Apr 18, 2012 2:06am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

Yesterday was a disappointment with a very narrow 81pips range. Took one loss trade yesterday.
Today can be the breakout after the narrow range trading yesterday.
On W see possibility of a inverted hammer reversal formation but since this week candle is still in progress, it is not wise to anticipate this.

I am neutral on EURUSD today as there is high impact news on GBP which will affect ERURGBP and this will have some impact on how EURUSD will move.

Just wait for PA to show the way.
With a doji, upper TL and upper R level I would prefer if PA shows way as down.
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  • #7,173
  • Apr 18, 2012 3:41am Apr 18, 2012 3:41am
Did I pull the trigger too quickly?
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  • #7,174
  • Apr 18, 2012 3:50am Apr 18, 2012 3:50am
Quoting IBaim
Did I pull the trigger too quickly?
SL hit. What a bummer.
  • #7,175
  • Apr 18, 2012 3:56am Apr 18, 2012 3:56am
Quoting IBaim
Did I pull the trigger too quickly?
I think you saw the H1 pullback candle which was very tempting...but with the GBP news being pro-GBP, EU will be drag down by EG movement.

now you can average down and get a better average entry price.

or sit this one out. I think your SL is pretty safe.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,176
  • Apr 18, 2012 3:58am Apr 18, 2012 3:58am
Quoting emmanuel7788
I think you saw the H1 pullback candle which was very tempting...but with the GBP news being pro-GBP, EU will be drag down by EG movement.

now you can average down and get a better average entry price.

or sit this one out. I think your SL is pretty safe.
Ooops! spoke too soon on your SL being safe. saw the dotted line wrong.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,177
  • Apr 18, 2012 4:16am Apr 18, 2012 4:16am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Ooops! spoke too soon on your SL being safe. saw the dotted line wrong.
I think it was a mistake on my part to enter with purely based on the pullback without looking at the TDI.
  • #7,178
  • Apr 18, 2012 4:31am Apr 18, 2012 4:31am
Quoting IBaim
I think it was a mistake on my part to enter with purely based on the pullback without looking at the TDI.
that one was tricky.
reaction to the GBP news was quite something to watch how GBP went like a mad bull against all its pairs.

well for EU, what drove price down and pullback in one hour. Then drive it down again the next hour and now seem to hold.

let's wait and see if we find a buy opportunity later today.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,179
  • Apr 18, 2012 4:34am Apr 18, 2012 4:34am
Quoting IBaim
I think it was a mistake on my part to enter with purely based on the pullback without looking at the TDI.
Some of those will work some won't. A 1hr pullback candle is always best to return to trend and thats what is debatable. D is now showing LH's, LL's with the R and TL above as per my previous post so it isn't an uptrend.

Obviously there are some other good places counter trend eg after clear resistance hl/lh that same day (if I recall last Fri US session a good example) or after D divergence and some D candles to support that decision. Here I think the analysis from my above post still holds true.

Add into the mix the last COT report showed big boys adding EUR shorts (if I remember right) = sells likely. TWT.
  • #7,180
  • Edited 5:24am Apr 18, 2012 5:14am | Edited 5:24am
Quoting IBaim
I think it was a mistake on my part to enter with purely based on the pullback without looking at the TDI.
My 2c ...

It looked like a pullback but it still closed lower than it opened (just) ...

To have taken a buy at that stage, I would've waited until it went above the 3128 region, which it has bounced off twice today already during Asia.

Certainly it looked like it was time for a break out and it looked like the typical London fake and reverse might be happening ... but sometimes, it turns out to not be a fake.

FYI, I had a sell order trigger when it broke the 3102 region ... but I took the almost pullback as a sign to exit (overmanaging). Reentered a sell at 3079 based on going below the previous hitpoint and expecting there to be some good room below, but clearly there's some more support to break through first ...
1 pip at a time ... if the entries are strong, the rest will follow ...
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