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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #110,301
  • Apr 16, 2012 6:06am Apr 16, 2012 6:06am
Hi there,

I am new to this thread. Thanks for all the excellent information. Keep up the good work.

I entered this EURUSD pin bar trade, FxPro feed, 4h TF. The pinbar is not ideal, but the location is what counts. However, there is a strong PPZ right above the pin bar.
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  • #110,302
  • Apr 16, 2012 6:34am Apr 16, 2012 6:34am
Quoting mtrader123
Hi there,

I am new to this thread. Thanks for all the excellent information. Keep up the good work.

I entered this EURUSD pin bar trade, FxPro feed, 4h TF. The pinbar is not ideal, but the location is what counts. However, there is a strong PPZ right above the pin bar.

Looks different for me. Same feed tho. You're fighting against a lot of downward momentum with this. I'd want a bigger and better formed pin to get me in this one. Might still work but i prefer more reasons to enter.

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Also, have a look on the higher TF and see if you can spot a huge reason why people are looking for shorts if/when 1.30 breaks down
  • #110,303
  • Apr 16, 2012 6:59am Apr 16, 2012 6:59am
Quoting beebolbod
Also, have a look on the higher TF and see if you can spot a huge reason why people are looking for shorts if/when 1.30 breaks down
Im looking but am not sure.

Will you reveal the mistery?
Thoughts are things
  • #110,304
  • Apr 16, 2012 7:10am Apr 16, 2012 7:10am
Quoting Quezoy
Im looking but am not sure.

Will you reveal the mistery?
Well its not clear cut tbh. there's a big bearish bar (DBHLC just about) on weekly and a H&S on Daily which if 1.30 breaks signifies (significant) break of the BEOUB and break of neckline. It's just looking pretty bearish right now and below 1.30 there doesn't look like much support down there for a little while.
  • #110,305
  • Apr 16, 2012 7:16am Apr 16, 2012 7:16am
Quoting willf
Just my view and I maybe wrong. I see the H&S which is a good indication that it may go lower but that whole area that created the H&S (consolidation) was a pull back of the overall downtrend.

If you put a fib retracement from the high back in October to the low in January you can see it that whole area was a pullback. I think the concensus is that the downtrend may resume if it breaks the BRN at 1.300

Something to watch either way. It could just as easily get rejected and go back up. Personally I would wait for a good bar setup.
Dude..... I was responding to the EUR GBP.....charts; havent had time to see if this is similar...I'm at work right now... thanks for the reply in any case.
  • #110,306
  • Apr 16, 2012 7:22am Apr 16, 2012 7:22am
Quoting beebolbod
Looks different for me. Same feed tho. You're fighting against a lot of downward momentum with this. I'd want a bigger and better formed pin to get me in this one. Might still work but i prefer more reasons to enter.

Attachment

Also, have a look on the higher TF and see if you can spot a huge reason why people are looking for shorts if/when 1.30 breaks down
Just wondering were you expecting the PPZ to act as support for the pinbar?

My take on this would be that it looks like the pinbar has worked in the sense that there has been an upward movement in price since the pinbar. However, it also looks like there has been a break of the PPZ you have drawn and now there will maybe be a retest from below where price will bounce off the PPZ which has now turned to resistance.
  • #110,307
  • Apr 16, 2012 7:23am Apr 16, 2012 7:23am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey G

It isn't that I know for sure that price is going down, what this gives me is a PRIME area to watch for further information. Until that neckline gives it is support, but based on that overall pattern I showed + the downtrend this level looks like it needs to break. And even if it breaks doesn't mean price has to go down. But the confluence at this area gives me prime location to watch for further PA or signals and use that confluence to execute a potential trade. The market looks heavy and I would not be surprised to see us retest the...
Helps a lot, thank you. I think this is part of the 'feel' you get from experience and reading the overall story. Whilst I'm profitable nowadays (err, moved back up a few time frames) my patience sometimes runs out and I'm prone to rash decisions. Nowhere near the level of a couple of years ago so there is progress and making improvements on looking at the story. All the credit goes to the good folks here, and my wife who tolerates the hours of screen time I put in...

Thanks all and keep up the good work.
  • #110,308
  • Apr 16, 2012 7:45am Apr 16, 2012 7:45am
Quoting beebolbod
Looks different for me. Same feed tho. You're fighting against a lot of downward momentum with this. I'd want a bigger and better formed pin to get me in this one. Might still work but i prefer more reasons to enter.

Attachment

Also, have a look on the higher TF and see if you can spot a huge reason why people are looking for shorts if/when 1.30 breaks down
Thank you for your response. I am a bit more worried about the PPZ right above the pinbar. This stresses me.
  • #110,309
  • Apr 16, 2012 7:54am Apr 16, 2012 7:54am
Quoting bfd
Just wondering were you expecting the PPZ to act as support for the pinbar?

My take on this would be that it looks like the pinbar has worked in the sense that there has been an upward movement in price since the pinbar. However, it also looks like there has been a break of the PPZ you have drawn and now there will maybe be a retest from below where price will bounce off the PPZ which has now turned to resistance.
no. the zone i've drawn is a FTA. I'm thinking this will turn back down at some point. maybe not at my zone. maybe not at all. I just dont get a clear enough picture to enter long from this pin.

It's not a pretty pin either tbh. check the size of it compared to the other bars in this TF. It's a baby.
  • #110,310
  • Apr 16, 2012 8:05am Apr 16, 2012 8:05am
Quoting mtrader123
Hi there,

I am new to this thread. Thanks for all the excellent information. Keep up the good work.

I entered this EURUSD pin bar trade, FxPro feed, 4h TF. The pinbar is not ideal, but the location is what counts. However, there is a strong PPZ right above the pin bar.
hei i too, put buystop order on last bar high..lets watch..what happens
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  • #110,311
  • Apr 16, 2012 8:15am Apr 16, 2012 8:15am
Quoting Grousman
Helps a lot, thank you. I think this is part of the 'feel' you get from experience and reading the overall story. Whilst I'm profitable nowadays (err, moved back up a few time frames) my patience sometimes runs out and I'm prone to rash decisions. Nowhere near the level of a couple of years ago so there is progress and making improvements on looking at the story. All the credit goes to the good folks here, and my wife who tolerates the hours of screen time I put in...

Thanks all and keep up the good work.
glad it helped I actually thought you asked about eur/usd I didn't read close enough the quoted post. Although it is very similar but I like the 1.3 to watch for PA on eur/usd much better

Best
Mike
  • #110,312
  • Apr 16, 2012 8:18am Apr 16, 2012 8:18am
This is an off topic but just a quick question for experience traders. I am new to trading, but I've been following the james16 thread for years. I've been observing news trading lately, however I do not trade on news releases I just avoid them totally. But Can anyone explain what is going on, maybe with a chart. I realized when things are released better than expected, the US has been going in the opposite direction than it should..in other words like this morning, mainly good news at 830am for US retail sales, yet the EUR gained like 30 pips on the US,since the release what is causing this? Its been happening many times of late even with the other US pairs.
Stop thinking like a retail trader
Forextrinitrader3.0 Profit This Month: na
  • #110,313
  • Apr 16, 2012 8:30am Apr 16, 2012 8:30am
Quoting forextrini1
This is an off topic but just a quick question for experience traders. I am new to trading, but I've been following the james16 thread for years. I've been observing news trading lately, however I do not trade on news releases I just avoid them totally. But Can anyone explain what is going on, maybe with a chart. I realized when things are released better than expected, the US has been going in the opposite direction than it should..in other words like this morning, mainly good news at 830am for US retail sales, yet the EUR gained like 30 pips on...
Hey trini

Any chart I would show personally would be in the same regards as any other chart. Meaning I personally ignore almost all news. By ignore I mean I don't pay attention to when or what is coming out , I simply trade the chart and make the assumption(after time and practice) that all the information I need is mostly built into the chart. I let news and other events simply help play out the flow of my correct or incorrect trades. It's super easy and cuts out more information to process. Most people try to take on the processing of more information which leads to more mistakes(since more information means more things you need to decipher). It is certainly not wrong to watch news or use news in a different way than myself or James and many here approach it, but I will say that I think most go about it only because they THINK that news has to be integrated in a more complicated or different way. As with anything only keep stuff that adds value to your trading.

Hope this helps!
Mike
  • #110,314
  • Apr 16, 2012 8:33am Apr 16, 2012 8:33am
GBPCHF break out from consolidation and then rejected to close back down below EMA and box consolidation (assuming the candle closes like this tomorrow)

Looks to me like a valid trade, i remember someone many pages back pointing out a similar trade.


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  • #110,315
  • Apr 16, 2012 8:38am Apr 16, 2012 8:38am
Quoting forextrini1
This is an off topic but just a quick question for experience traders. I am new to trading, but I've been following the james16 thread for years. I've been observing news trading lately, however I do not trade on news releases I just avoid them totally. But Can anyone explain what is going on, maybe with a chart. I realized when things are released better than expected, the US has been going in the opposite direction than it should..in other words like this morning, mainly good news at 830am for US retail sales, yet the EUR gained like 30 pips on...
Trading fundamentals can be more tricky than it at first seems. A strategy where you buy good news and sell bad news won't take you very far.

Problem lies with the asymmetric nature of market information. There are times when news will be "leaked" before the actual announcement and that can have very little to no effect (even the red news folders on your FF calender) that can leave a lot of traders scratching their heads that were expecting fireworks.

Besides a lot of traders have a lot of different ways of interpreting how well a particular economy is doing. A green number may not exactly be a good news if the vast majority was expecting the numbers to be more healthy than they turn out to be. Interestingly this can lead to their confidence shattering and their biases changing. Yes people can actually start selling on good news simply because it was not good enough.

Since I am not a fundamental trader nor have ever looked into finding a consistently tradable edge in this domain I can't go on to suggest anything though that would help you trade fundamentals better.

Still my 2 pips.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #110,316
  • Apr 16, 2012 8:59am Apr 16, 2012 8:59am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey trini

Any chart I would show personally would be in the same regards as any other chart. Meaning I personally ignore almost all news. By ignore I mean I don't pay attention to when or what is coming out , I simply trade the chart and make the assumption(after time and practice) that all the information I need is mostly built into the chart. I let news and other events simply help play out the flow of my correct or incorrect trades. It's super easy and cuts out more information to process. Most people try to take on the processing of more information...

I agree it makes sence what u say its just way too much to process..I guess my question is more like asking why the sky is blue or why the earth is round..who knows...I'll just stick with what works. Many thanks to you guys here...i took quite a few years off trading after i found this thread and took lots of advice from here, I'm still not where I wish to be (quit my job, retire and trade full time ), still consider myself a rookie and just be humble and learn. Some people in other forum threads act like they know everything and I wonder why they are even on here.
Stop thinking like a retail trader
Forextrinitrader3.0 Profit This Month: na
  • #110,317
  • Apr 16, 2012 9:02am Apr 16, 2012 9:02am
Quoting forextrini1
I agree it makes sence what u say its just way too much to process..I guess my question is more like asking why the sky is blue or why the earth is round..who knows...I'll just stick with what works. Many thanks to you guys here...i took quite a few years off trading after i found this thread and took lots of advice from here, I'm still not where I wish to be (quit my job, retire and trade full time ), still consider myself a rookie and just be humble and learn. Some people in other forum threads act like they know everything and I wonder why...
yep it's good to question everything. It's how we get answers of course. Lots of things happening during a news event depending on the scale of the event. Liquidity tends to dry up, markets become more volatile(less creates more) thus creating great short term opportunities since it's hard to keep price perfectly balanced(or at agreement) which is what the markets tries to do(as a whole). But like anything you have a large variety of traders/entities/etc all with their own motives at different times, including news. Just the simple answer to some of it

And the learning never stops, doing this over a decade and I am still learning every day too

Best
Mike
  • #110,318
  • Apr 16, 2012 9:19am Apr 16, 2012 9:19am
Quoting mbqb11
chart I am watching for the coming week
updated chart + entry

Dropped to the 1hr( I will generally watch 4hr from a daily pattern and one hour if I really like something).

Notice price broke out of the pattern stopped dead at the BRN of 1.3 no surprise why right. Now we pulled back to the former neckline which was support and its acting as resistance. I used the 1.3050 area to more closely see how price would close. The pin closed UNDER this which was the key. Now we just see if we can get another push to the BRN. I will not let this entry get out of hand as the scope is still from a one hour chart.

Just wanted to follow up with last weeks chart

Best
Mike
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  • #110,319
  • Apr 16, 2012 9:49am Apr 16, 2012 9:49am
placed two sell orders on EURUSD today which both hit sl.
1.30023 and 1.30438

my third sell order just triggered.
1.3030

really looking for a break of the round number 1.3000 as you can see..
or for a reason to go back to finishing my reading on Martin Pring Price Patterns lol..

its hard to read when I'm staring at charts.

I find it easier to learn new material when I can explain it, so, here's my reasoning:

the down trend line is definitely good, it dates back to 8.29.11, touched twice since then before a more recent whipsaw. the price whipsawed back under the tl because the tl held strong.

now, the up trend line was support, now turned resistance as shown from the price unable to break above it last week.

now it's just the FTA at BRN 1.300 that needs to be overcome for my sell to be profitable.. it might not be today.. so I should get back to reading.

why am i trading live? just because I can doesn't mean i should.. srsly.

reasons why I shouldn't be in this trade right now:
since Friday, price made a 200 pip dash to 1.300 FTA, so sellers need to catch a breath before they can break through
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  • #110,320
  • Apr 16, 2012 10:11am Apr 16, 2012 10:11am
Quoting forextrini1
This is an off topic but just a quick question for experience traders. I am new to trading, but I've been following the james16 thread for years. I've been observing news trading lately, however I do not trade on news releases I just avoid them totally. But Can anyone explain what is going on, maybe with a chart. I realized when things are released better than expected, the US has been going in the opposite direction than it should..in other words like this morning, mainly good news at 830am for US retail sales, yet the EUR gained like 30 pips on...


Hi Trini

I might not be the experienced one but i do some of the news trading from time to time and apart from low liquidity and high spreads the following aspect is very important.

Trading the numbers without understanding of the market expectations is bit like taking a pinbar without seeing the bars on the left, you cant trade the numbers without knowing the full context. I trade news/scenarios only when i have clear understanding of factors behind the PA. There are a lot of scenarios e.g.

1) Rumors of strong CPI numbers driving GBP higher just before the publication which usually ends in profit taking when the numbers are out.

2) Rally in eurchf while market is expecting change of the floor from 1.2 to 1.25

Basically it all comes down to expectations which are not always inline with the forecast numbers. > Buy the rumor , sell the fact .


How to gauge the current market sentiment? Observation of PA in relation to newsflow tells a lot about what the "market" is thinking.

Cheers!
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