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  • #10,961
  • Apr 14, 2012 7:28pm Apr 14, 2012 7:28pm
Quoting tradoholic
Hi Chilly,
Here are my charts for Au, EU and GU. I agree with you that the market is undecided. I have been watching S&P for a while and in many of my previous posts I have mentioned that I expect a huge pull back when the price hits median fork line in the chart. I Calculated the time to be around 15th May or so. If this continues then all EDU, AU, and GU should break the supports they are facing which is more like what I think. 1.55 for GU, 1.25 for EU and parity for AU are levels that I am expecting. For the moment I am not holding any trades....
Thank you sir! That kinda confirms what I had thought, as I value you view.. I just have to get the plan in my head ,right or wrong , and go with it but, I'm with you to sit back for a moment on any long term stuff....

I lost my butt last yr after convinced the S&P was goign sub 1000 and ramifications it would bring... So, one week at a time now...lol..GL! this week. I still have some studying to do I think..
  • #10,962
  • Edited 8:24pm Apr 14, 2012 7:56pm | Edited 8:24pm
here is a nice clean look at equity indexes from Fusion Research.......

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04...ew-for-492012/


for what it is worth i am on the same page as you, Chilly and your friend tradoholic (nice post - enjoyed the read, thank you).

Lee Adler is also looking to mid May for a possible sell off. Barry Ritholz thinks the market (S&P) is in a consolidation. Adler has had excellent insights into the bond markets and called the S&P run up from mid Dec. Ritholz has given excellent insight on NFP readings (imo)

i read an interesting article over leverage by the 2btf banks and Citi comes out looking decent while Deutshe is incredibly over levered so much so that it can bring down the German GDP if things get out of control..France's Agricole is right up there with Deutsche.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mark-g...ous-road-ahead

Chilly already knows my view;

i trade most of the European equity indexes like Spain and Italy which have gotten hit pretty hard recently......US indexes are definitely lagging the sell-offs over in the EZ and Japan too.

the thing that really worries me is the effect of LTRO 1 and 2 looks to have come off already and that is very short shelf life for a Trillion of stimulus.

the story will be told (imho) in the bond markets and if Spanish and Italian bond yields blow out then the shit will hit the fan big time and the Euro will be Fubared.

part of the problem with LTRO is that with things turning negative/shaky so quickly it makes the policy makers look stupid and to come back to the public for more bailouts so soon after i think is getting too close to the line and something has to give.

i think there are 2 things to drive the US dollar higher against counterparts;

# 1 is panic in the market so if Europe freaks that is a catalyst for a breakout (watching the Pound too because if the Euro sells below 1.30 the Pound will follow - mho

# 2 id US 10 year treasury yields which have backed off from recent highs around 2.30/2.40 (critical level) if rates break higher then the Yen is shit

overall my opinion is that the dollar has probably bottomed unless the FED brings another atomic money bomb. on that score i think the FED is gaming the market with a lot of verbal interventions like Yellen from last Wednesday and Bernanke dropping subtle hints and timely here and there.

PS........i am expecting more intervention as a bottom line, but maybe in the form of a surprise. i think there are other angles to work into this and one is the Treasury's consideration for Floating Rate Notes......

another is the policy makers have to be accutely aware of the risks of a stimulus failure,........ a coordinated policy response will rally the markets and sell the dollar (which is what Bernanke wants)...cannot rule it out. there is a lot at stake

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/if-195...-get-out-dodge
  • #10,963
  • Apr 15, 2012 8:06pm Apr 15, 2012 8:06pm
Quoting roro53
here is a nice clean look at equity indexes from Fusion Research.......

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04...ew-for-492012/
for what it is worth i am on the same page as you, Chilly and your friend tradoholic (nice post - enjoyed the read, thank you).
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/if-195...-get-out-dodge
Hi,
Thank you for your informative post. If we are talking fundamentals, then we should also bring in the China Factor, Iran Factor and Dubai Factor. Last week, the market had priced in an increase in China GDP, which backfired big times and hence AUD which is a proxy for China, dropped more than 150 pips. Also the announcement by the chinese govt to allow a bigger range for RMB fluctuation was taken negatively by the market as a hint for further growth negativity. The EU situation is still not under control and as you mentioned about the LTRO. The fact that Spain took a larger loan from the ECB in march than that of Feb ( about 45% more) shows concrens about the LTRO's liquidity. This was the news that Pushed the Spanish 10 year Yields to 5.92. The UK is also not doing too good with all new figures coming out missing estimates. Germany is also feeling the heat. US job reports of two weeks ago missed all estimates as well. On the brighter side, there seems to be a consensus that the Iran situation is getting under control and that chances of pre-emtive attacks by Israel or US are fading away. This is bound to remove downward pressure from the USD. Gold and OIL should also come down as external pressures will be taken off. Over the next month or so we will see Dubai coming back under spotlight with their massive debts. So all in all, I think the case for a downward pressure in the stocks is more than likely at this stage. This put together with the technical charts as I presented before, point to a higher value for USD and JPY. I hope this post has been as informative and Good Luck.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,964
  • Edited 11:02am Apr 17, 2012 10:38am | Edited 11:02am
Tring a few here and may add on the pull back. Hope your all still alive and well!

CAD/JPY Daily and USD/JPY 4hr Chart..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,965
  • Apr 17, 2012 10:54am Apr 17, 2012 10:54am
Quote
Original post by tradoholic
Hi,
Thank you for your informative post. If we are talking fundamentals, then we should also bring in the China Factor, Iran Factor and Dubai Factor...
thanks for the informed reply. Chilly knows i love to write about fundamentals so it is nice to get your insights and views.

did not know about Dubai

just bought USD/CAD at 0.9875 (modest size) but think for it to break support at 0.9850 will be difficult (improved US otlook makes more QE difficult, and weaker numbers hurt CAD)(Carney is a slippery dude imo)

just sold the DOW at 13,090 and very tempted to put on a short for the french index around 3280/90, but will probably wait to get aggressive.

i think there is a LOT to the repatriation of the Euro by european banks so that may be distorting the price of risk.

the bond auction last night pushed up short term rates by almost 1% so i really cannot see how that is constructive or positive for markets looking ahead.

Sarkozy is beating the 'weaker euro' is good for the EZ drum and no doubt Hollande will be pitching that angle also...the IMF called for a rate cut by the ECB so cut rates to ZIRP and follow up with LTRO 3, 4 , 5 and follow the FED

BuBa is saying NO

austerity is long term pain and no growth prospects so something has to give.

Last nights bond numbers;

Spanish T-Bill Auction Results

-Spain sells EUR 2.09bln 12-month T-Bills, bid/cover 2.90, Prev. 2.14 (yield 2.623%, Prev. 1.418%)
-Spain sells EUR 1.09bln 18-month T-Bills, bid/cover 3.77, Prev. 2.93 (yield 3.110%, Prev. 1.711%)

that implies (to me at least) that Spain is getting desperate and the funding costs for short term paper are reflecting rising risk of the costs rising in the longer more critical end of the bond market ie. 10 years

look at the yields!
  • #10,966
  • Apr 17, 2012 9:09pm Apr 17, 2012 9:09pm
Holy Moly!! Been busy without access to the internet. If anyone was trying to contact me please try again.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #10,967
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:43pm Apr 19, 2012 7:43pm
Just taken a few short trades that got hit last night. I am currently short in AU ( will close before NY as Carry trade may kick in), Short in Gu and waiting for my limit order to hit on EU to go short as well. I think the market will be very quiet before FOMC next week which will probably give it an electric shock to bring it back to life.
On the fundamental front, Spanish Auctions performed reasonably well with lots of takers, US job market fell short of estimates, so talks of QE3 may start to damage strenght of USD. There is a rumor that France is gonna get downgraded which initially sparked a sell off in EU, but recovered after official denial. I think the job market figures should be taken very seriously as its the second consecutive drop and well below expectation. This would point to a recession if occurred again. So any long trades in U/J or U/CHF, or short trades against CHF and JPY should be well thought before entering and should be taken as a short term trade only ( IMHO).
Ideal trades will be shorting Au/JPY or AU/CHF, I am looking at technical levels there to gain my entry.
Good Luck all,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu20312.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu20312.gif Size: 24 KB
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,968
  • Apr 19, 2012 7:50pm Apr 19, 2012 7:50pm
Just taken a few short trades that got hit last night. I am currently short in AU ( will close before NY as Carry trade may kick in), Short in Gu and waiting for my limit order to hit on EU to go short as well.
Good Luck all,[/quote]

Sorry wrong chart, for GU, I had posted this chart in march.
Here is the right one
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu20412.gif Size: 25 KB
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,969
  • Apr 22, 2012 7:14am Apr 22, 2012 7:14am
Quoting tradoholic
I think the market will be very quiet before FOMC next week which will probably give it an electric shock to bring it back to life. ........US job market fell short of estimates, so talks of QE3 may start to damage strenght of USD..........I think the job market figures should be taken very seriously as its the second consecutive drop and well below expectation.
Unemployment Claims print next week closer to 400k and QE talk will be in bloom imo

HLs for the Dow and a wedge formed with R right at the mar 13 J Diamon front run of the FED bank stress tests and followup mar 26 Bernanke speech inferring more QE for jobs.......took the Dow from 13,000 up to 13,250/75

Dow is leading other indexes higher or is the best short around........mo

nikki and european indexes already off from 5 to 20%.something has to give
  • #10,970
  • Apr 22, 2012 10:35pm Apr 22, 2012 10:35pm
Quoting roro53
Unemployment Claims print next week closer to 400k and QE talk will be in bloom imo

HLs for the Dow and a wedge formed with R right at the mar 13 J Diamon front run of the FED bank stress tests and followup mar 26 Bernanke speech inferring more QE for jobs.......took the Dow from 13,000 up to 13,250/75

Dow is leading other indexes higher or is the best short around........mo

nikki and european indexes already off from 5 to 20%.something has to give
Hi,
This week fundamentals will be around the FOMC, G20 outcome, and the French election. QE3 talks will definitely take center stage again shortly and that will push USD index lower. But we should be reminded that AUD is not a part of the index, and CHF and EU are locked in together as well.
There is a rumour that there wont be any more LTROs. If Sarkozy does not get re-elected then the lefties may hinder the EU Treaty. There are a few headlines about this going round.
I closed my AU short on Friday with 50 PIPS but am still short EU and GU. Both in Red. This morning I addded a short in AUD/JPY from 84.6 as well from 23% fib. Expecting 100 pips minimum.
good luck.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,971
  • Apr 22, 2012 11:15pm Apr 22, 2012 11:15pm
Hi guys & gals. At the moment I'm on the sideline of A/U as this descending triangle plays out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 99 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #10,972
  • Apr 23, 2012 12:29am Apr 23, 2012 12:29am
Quoting MarcVUM
Hi guys & gals. At the moment I'm on the sideline of A/U as this descending triangle plays out.
Hi Marc
Here are my two AU charts. Just cashed in my AUDJPY with about 50 pips. Will wait for re-entry on lower time frame. This one seems to be the safer one for shorts. Friday COTS showed an increase in AUD Longs as well.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy23412.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au23412.gif Size: 25 KB
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,973
  • Apr 23, 2012 7:29pm Apr 23, 2012 7:29pm
Hi All,
Euro was sold off yesterday on the news that the Dutch PM and his crew resigned unexpectedly sending shivers through the markets.
My shorts in EU and AUD/JPY hit my expected levels. EU dropped down to Fibo fan as seen seen in the following chart. I will be going short again on EU shortly.
GU's drop was held by the support. My trade is currently in the red.
Expecting continuation of market sell off today, but recovering tomorrow.
Silver H&S completed its pattern. Will wait for entry to go long in Silver for a long term investment.
Good Luck.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu24412.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: silver24412.gif Size: 21 KB
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,974
  • Apr 24, 2012 10:35am Apr 24, 2012 10:35am
GU limit hit
Let's see how this goes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.jpg Size: 161 KB
  • #10,975
  • Apr 24, 2012 11:26am Apr 24, 2012 11:26am
Quoting Saxon
GU limit hit
Let's see how this goes
With you on this one! Cable has been a bit slippery lately..I had a long last week and closed it for only 1/3 of the possible pips in hindsight, witch also made me view the EU wrong in some short play...

GU at Weekly R here as you know, with MM also having confluence with fib ext of last swing. We still have initial support around 6065 with doable target with breach at 5600. With everyone and their brother in this trade, it could be a rocky ride..GL!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu daily.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #10,976
  • Apr 24, 2012 11:11pm Apr 24, 2012 11:11pm
Quoting Chillypiper
With you on this one! Cable has been a bit slippery lately..I had a long last week and closed it for only 1/3 of the possible pips in hindsight, witch also made me view the EU wrong in some short play...

GU at Weekly R here as you know, with MM also having confluence with fib ext of last swing. We still have initial support around 6065 with doable target with breach at 5600. With everyone and their brother in this trade, it could be a rocky ride..GL!
MMM..evry one and his dog calling this.. is a worry
  • #10,977
  • Apr 25, 2012 2:21am Apr 25, 2012 2:21am
Quoting danc
MMM..evry one and his dog calling this.. is a worry
I'm still in it, we should have some interesting moves across the board pretty soon though.
  • #10,978
  • Apr 25, 2012 4:56pm Apr 25, 2012 4:56pm
Quoting Saxon
I'm still in it, we should have some interesting moves across the board pretty soon though.
I entered this trade some 80 pips too early. I am still in it although about 80 pips in the red. Will be a bumpy ride home, but considering considering the drop it is well worth the wait.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,979
  • Apr 26, 2012 5:02pm Apr 26, 2012 5:02pm
EU breaking ST LTL
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  • #10,980
  • Apr 26, 2012 5:03pm Apr 26, 2012 5:03pm
Quoting tradoholic
I entered this trade some 80 pips too early. I am still in it although about 80 pips in the red. Will be a bumpy ride home, but considering considering the drop it is well worth the wait.
Ya, i got pushed out. Thanks FOMC
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