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Extreme TMA System

  • #8,941
  • Apr 15, 2012 12:07pm Apr 15, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting jayjonbeach
Al lamento escuchar la terrible noticia mis pensamientos y oraciones estan contigo y tu mama
Gracias amigo.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,942
  • Apr 15, 2012 12:13pm Apr 15, 2012 12:13pm
Quoting Alorente
For entries the same thing. Entries should never be executed too soon on very fast steep moves. You need to wait for a stall of 2 or 3 bars or a close of Fast Trix and HA. If not, you may get a temporary color change on a spike and then price continues moving in the same direction.

Another excellent way of entry is: As soon as you see a flash color change on Trix or HA, place a Sell Stop order one pip under the previous candle for a short or a Buy Stop order one pip above the previous candle for a long. Keep moving this Stop order as new candles...
Perfect, I like your way of explanations. They always fit like a missing piece in my trading puzzle. Thank you.
  • #8,943
  • Apr 15, 2012 12:48pm Apr 15, 2012 12:48pm
Quoting Bunker
Time for me to make a first post here. I have been following this Forum since the very beginning and I read every single thread. I feel like I know you all!! So don’t worry, I won’t ask you where I can find the Extreme_Spike indicator.
[size=3][font=Calibri]First, Al, just like all the members have done here, I would like to thank you for this excellent Forum. Not only you are one of the best teachers I know (or read) but the way that you have been managing this Forum is simply astonishing. Your personal qualities...
Thanks for your words. You did a reasonably good job BUT you have to realize that you are trying to find 3 Major breaths in what is simply a topping pattern (Head & Shoulders). In order to establish the three major breaths, you would have to look for them on the rally that lead from the bottom at 1.2620 to the Head & Shoulders top. The current move, will in fact be a major one composed of 3 Major Breaths and Test, each one composed of the three mini breaths and mini test. We have completed the first Breath as you indicate on your chart, complete with the three mini breaths and mini test. We have begun the second major breath (2), of which we have completed the first mini breath. The second one may be starting tonight.

I placed the 3 Major Breaths and mini breaths on the chart below. The "C" stands for consolidation. These can take the form of sideways bases or Fibonacci retracements (Usually 38.2% or 50%). Notice the RSI divergence "D" at each of the major Tests. With time, identifying Breaths and mini breaths will become second nature for you. Once you master it you will be able to tell how much of the move has already elapsed and how much more is still to come. You will even feel confident at trading each of the breaths as well as the divergences at the Major Tests.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.jpg Size: 154 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,944
  • Apr 15, 2012 1:24pm Apr 15, 2012 1:24pm
Quoting Alorente
Thanks for your words. You did a reasonably good job BUT you have to realize that you are trying to find 3 Major breaths in what is simply a topping pattern (Head & Shoulders). In order to establish the three major breaths, you would have to look for them on the rally that lead from the bottom at 1.2620 to the Head & Shoulders top. The current move, will in fact be a major one composed of 3 Major Breaths and Test, each one composed of the three mini breaths and mini test. We have completed the first Breath as you indicate on your chart, complete...
Another point I want to make regarding the Breathing system and there are many. It relates to the Coral. While Major Breaths are ocurring, you will notice that Price stays above the Coral for the most part, bouncing off it when it hits it. Consolidations on the other hand have either the Coral move through Price (Base) or above Price (Fibonacci retracements). By looking at Price in relation to the Coral, you know if you are still in a Major Breath or have started a Consolidation between Major Breaths.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,945
  • Apr 15, 2012 1:30pm Apr 15, 2012 1:30pm
Quoting Alorente
I agree. More focused threads on various aspects of this one would be very beneficial. I just don´t have the time for additional threads. My mother, who recently has quickly become blind from glaucoma, has moved to live with me since three weeks ago and tending to her absorbs a large part of my day. It would be great if some of you start spinoff threads that would focus more on specific aspects of what we are discussing here.
Al, I'm very sorry to hear about your mother. As far as I know some people fight glaucoma successfully, but probably your mother is too old for the surgery. It is a very trying time for you, Al, and my prayers are with you and your mother.

Yes, I think a spin-off thread for the conservative participants is a very good idea. I'm too busy with my Russian thread, but I hope one of the experienced participants can open this kind of a thread.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #8,946
  • Apr 15, 2012 1:34pm Apr 15, 2012 1:34pm
Quoting Alorente
Another point I want to make regarding the Breathing system and there are many. It relates to the Coral. While Major Breaths are ocurring, you will notice that Price stays above the Coral for the most part, bouncing off it when it hits it. Consolidations on the other hand have either the Coral move through Price (Base) or above Price (Fibonacci retracements). By looking at Price in relation to the Coral, you know if you are still in a Major Breath or have started a Consolidation between Major Breaths.
Another point I want to make. Consolidation patterns usually happen between the First and Second MB or between the Second and Third MB. It is normal after the Third Major Test to immediately begin with the First MB of the next Breathing pattern without a consolidation, especially on Reversal moves. The reason for this is Price Exhaustion. Sometimes you get a consolidation after the Third Major Test and more often than not this means the new Major move will be a Continuation of the Previous one.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,947
  • Apr 15, 2012 1:41pm Apr 15, 2012 1:41pm
Quoting Favorite
Al, I'm very sorry to hear about your mother. As far as I know some people fight glaucoma successfully, but probably your mother is too old for the surgery. It is a very trying time for you, Al, and my prayers are with you and your mother.

Yes, I think a spin-off thread for the conservative participants is a very good idea. I'm too busy with my Russian thread, but I hope one of the experienced participants can open this kind of a thread.
Thanks Mike. Aside from being my mother, she is my best friend, so for me it is a pleasure to spend time with her while I still have the chance. Indeed she is too old for surgery, being 84.

I agree with you that spin offs are a good idea. This thread is becoming more and more advanced as we move forward. Members that have been with me from the beginning are progressing very well. I know this from the many PMs and emails I receive from them. But newer members are being left behind unless they have the time and energy to catch up with a lot of extra work. Having access to more focused threads that detail specific areas would be beneficial for them.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,948
  • Apr 15, 2012 1:43pm Apr 15, 2012 1:43pm
Thank you for these explanations Al. These posts are keepers!!
You are extremely generous (especially when you have to take care of your mom).
Bunker
  • #8,949
  • Apr 15, 2012 1:46pm Apr 15, 2012 1:46pm
Quoting Alorente
EurUsd finished yesterday with a pattern that has been very reliable for me over the years. I call it the Italian Boot because of its similarity to the Italian peninsula (In reverse, of course). We had another instance recently as you can see in the upper left of the chart. Usually this pattern is a continuation of the previous move. Notice the similarity in Fast Trix, which turns green and rises, even though price falls. RSI is also in a similar place.

Don´t confuse this pattern with a double bottom, which is a much more vertical test. The Italian...
Hi Al, can u explain me the italian boot? i understund the pattern but after the pattern, like in eur/usd case the price, probabily, must drop or go up?
Thanks!
  • #8,950
  • Apr 15, 2012 1:54pm Apr 15, 2012 1:54pm
Quoting pierpaolo960
Hi Al, can u explain me the italian boot? i understund the pattern but after the pattern, like in eur/usd case the price, probabily, must drop or go up?
Thanks!
Normally in a double bottom, you get vertically accentuated moves with long tails in HA candles, especially on the bottom of them. Price then jumps suddenly as new buyers who are eager to get in jump into the ring. In the Italian boot you get the test of the bottom happening gradually with no tails on the tops of the candles and on low volume. What this tells you is there is an absence of buyers, or the buyers do not feel that price is low enough for them to jump in. As time elapses, more and more longs with positions get nervous that there is no bounce upcoming and start closing their positions. As the low is broken, stop losses are hit as well as new sell orders are triggered, causing a long candle downwards.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,951
  • Apr 15, 2012 2:12pm Apr 15, 2012 2:12pm
Quoting Alorente
Normally in a double bottom, you get vertically accentuated moves with long tails in HA candles, especially on the bottom of them. Price then jumps suddenly as new buyers who are eager to get in jump into the ring. In the Italian boot you get the test of the bottom happening gradually with no tails on the tops of the candles and on low volume. What this tells you is there is an absence of buyers, or the buyers do not feel that price is low enough for them to jump in. As time elapses, more and more longs with positions get nervous that there is no...
So, now we must see a new low, right?
  • #8,952
  • Apr 15, 2012 2:14pm Apr 15, 2012 2:14pm
Quoting pierpaolo960
So, now we must see a new low, right?
That is what I expect. A break of the head and shoulders neckline today.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,953
  • Apr 15, 2012 2:46pm Apr 15, 2012 2:46pm
Looks like you can draw a descending triangle on the daily EU - just wonder if price will move up and test that trendline.
  • #8,954
  • Apr 15, 2012 2:50pm Apr 15, 2012 2:50pm
Quoting handy148
Looks like you can draw a descending triangle on the daily EU - just wonder if price will move up and test that trendline.
Not likely since Price already tested the Coral twice unsuccessfully on Thursday and Friday. I think we will break the neckline, either in Japan´s session or London.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,955
  • Apr 15, 2012 3:08pm Apr 15, 2012 3:08pm
Al, I was reading your last few posts regarding your breathing system and that helped a tremendous amount. So I set out to look at the trades I am currently in , AUDUSD being one. I am currently shorting this pair due to the bad chinese GDP data (which I was told not to trust) and thinking of reconsidering my position after seeing the 1-2-3 completion on the down trend and beginning the uptrend. I could be totally wrong. Looking at the day chart since it bottomed in 2008 it seems we may have one more breath to go?

What are your thoughts?

PS: Sorry to hear about your mother, hope she gets better soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.jpg Size: 112 KB
  • #8,956
  • Apr 15, 2012 4:41pm Apr 15, 2012 4:41pm
Quoting Alorente
Matthew, below is a chart were I have marked the four instances where you could have entered a trade using RSI trendlines. Each trendline is matched in color by same color vertical line. All trades are entered on successful retest of the broken trendline. The Red trendline is invalid because the retest broke through the trendline and thus that trendline is no longer tradable. You should simply delete it.

Let me know if you have questions.
Thank you Al. I have been working with the RSI and trendlines this weekend, and I will have a few more questions for you. But I wanted to post this chart because the dashboard 1HR indicator just gave a buy signal. The 4HR TMA is down, the 1HR TMA is flat, and the 200SMA is down.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPY.jpg Size: 304 KB


Is the fact that the coral is just starting to turn down at the same time the RSI is being tested a good indication the trade will fail? If so, is that enough on its own for you to not take it, or do the other factors like the 4HR TMA and 200MA pointing down automatically make your decision regardless of the coral?

Matthew
  • #8,957
  • Apr 15, 2012 5:31pm Apr 15, 2012 5:31pm
Thanks Mike. Aside from being my mother, she is my best friend, so for me it is a pleasure to spend time with her while I still have the chance. Indeed she is too old for surgery, being 84.


Says a lot about your character.
  • #8,958
  • Apr 15, 2012 9:25pm Apr 15, 2012 9:25pm
Dear Al :

Pic attached of EURUSD, Since the 1-2-3 Breath system will never ending at Forex, does we can draw this 1-2-3 as my attached pic, so , we are going to view the next 3 wave before/after Europe session ??

Wish your mama have good health ~~ she may experience World war II according her ago is so senior than us.


SCOTT-ibm

~~~~~~~~~~
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_apr_16_afternoon_1-2-3_pat.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #8,959
  • Apr 15, 2012 9:47pm Apr 15, 2012 9:47pm
hello Al, and everyone, any good signal with this system ?
  • #8,960
  • Apr 15, 2012 9:59pm Apr 15, 2012 9:59pm
Quoting Peepo
hello Al, and everyone, any good signal with this system ?
I THINK MANY ARE SHORTING EU NOW, ITS STARTING TO DROP.... OR ARE WE IN FOR A SIDEWAYS MOVE HERE? ANY CHANCE IT WILL GO UP TO TEST THE R-LINE?
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