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Extreme TMA System

  • #8,761
  • Apr 13, 2012 5:41am Apr 13, 2012 5:41am
Quoting maxryan9999
It started from post #xxx ?
I'm so glad I caught this thread right at the beginning
  • #8,762
  • Apr 13, 2012 5:42am Apr 13, 2012 5:42am
Quoting Alorente
Phew... I was worried that it wasnīt coming across to you.

The key to understand here is:

1- Once a drop or a long breakout begins, the 200 MA will establish itself on a specific angle of descent or ascent and will not change that substantially. If you know this, by looking at the 200th bar, you will know what the probable new bar will be (more or less).

2- The angle of ascent or descent of the 200 MA is usually very similar to past drops and falls, so by going back on the chart you can draw a trendline through the 200 and then bring...
So, the only one thing one must know is the fundamentals so to say. Eur is going down so 200 is supposed to continue move down. To do this the past 200 bars must be replicated(or more bearish for a steeper down 200ma).

On a side note, does this make sense?
coral=60 200ma= 200
200/3= ~60 , therefore 3 breaths which signal 1 complete move in the 200MA(perhaps before a significant change in angle of 200ma)
Sorry, i may have overcomplicated things a bit.
  • #8,763
  • Apr 13, 2012 5:46am Apr 13, 2012 5:46am
Quoting maxryan9999
It started from post #xxx ?
It started at Post # 8740
  • #8,764
  • Apr 13, 2012 5:50am Apr 13, 2012 5:50am
Quoting Alorente
Phew... I was worried that it wasnīt coming across to you.

The key to understand here is:

1- Once a drop or a long breakout begins, the 200 MA will establish itself on a specific angle of descent or ascent and will not change that substantially. If you know this, by looking at the 200th bar, you will know what the probable new bar will be (more or less).

2- The angle of ascent or descent of the 200 MA is usually very similar to past drops and falls, so by going back on the chart you can draw a trendline through the 200 and then bring it...
Great job AL, Your teachings and analysis are greatly appreciated. I understand what you are saying. This is what makes this thread among the best ever. You share your method and teach us a great deal on how to analysis the markets etc. The information is PRICELIST! You have gone way beyond the old saying "Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime"
Thanks for a lifetime of PIPS!
Barry
  • #8,765
  • Apr 13, 2012 5:52am Apr 13, 2012 5:52am
Quoting faxxion
Hello Alfredo,

I am trying to wrap my head around this, so please be patient with me.

If I understand correctly, you are saying that for the 200 MA to stay on it's current descent, the price bars that are dropping off the 200 MA must be replaced with current dropping price bars.

That explains PA in a trending market. How do you use your system to predict a trend change?

If I am completely misunderstanding, I apologize in advance.

Sincerely,


William
OK. Iīll give you an example: Letīs say the current bar closes at 1.3000 and the current bar replaced the 200th bar that was at 1.3300. This creates a drop on the 200 MA of a specific angle. Letīs say the 199th bar is at 1.3320. For the next future bar to keep the exact same angle on the 200 MA, itīs close must be approximately 1.3020. So if the 200 MA is going to remain dropping at the same angle as it usually does in a drop, by looking at the 198th, 197th, 196th , 195th bars you will get and idea of what the next 4 bars will be. Obviously, it doesnīt happen bar by bar, but the overall movement is most of the time predictable. The same applies to the Coral, understanding though, that the Coral waves in an out with relation to the 200, usually three times. To execute those waves and by looking at the 60th, 59th, 58th, etc. you know more or less what the next bars must do for the wave to happen.

With time, this becomes almost second nature. For me it is almost automatic. Thatīs what I refer as the chart "speaking" to me. I look at the chart and knowing this, I can more or less determine what the probable approximate price move will be. I have been able to predict major drops and bull runs on the daily chart and weekly chart using this method. Go back into history and apply this and you will begin to understand.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,766
  • Apr 13, 2012 5:57am Apr 13, 2012 5:57am
Quoting Alorente
OK. Iīll give you an example: Letīs say the current bar closes at 1.3000 and the current bar replaced the 200th bar that was at 1.3300. This creates a drop on the 200 MA of a specific angle. Letīs say the 199th bar is at 1.3320. For the next future bar to keep the exact same angle on the 200 MA, itīs close must be approximately 1.3020. So if the 200 MA is going to remain dropping at the same angle as it usually does in a drop, by looking at the 198th, 197th, 196th , 195th bars you will get and idea of what the next 4 bars will be. Obviously, it...
Thank you, Alfredo.

If I understand correctly, this assumes a continuation of the trend.

What would be your signal for a future price reversal?

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #8,767
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:01am Apr 13, 2012 6:01am
Quoting pixelboy
Favorite, I'm very surprised you are still posting on Al's thread. You have spent the last few days spamming and disrupting Calstar's work because you feel it in some way infringes the copyright of the Stairstep's thread. And yet you have clearly plagiarised Al's work here on some Russian forum:

http://ruforum.mt5.com/threads/17528-sistema-moderntma

I hope that you have explained to the people following the Russian thread that you are very inexperienced with this method and have very little trading experience at all. I hope they are...
I just love ForexFactory!

P.S. Al, as you can see, I keep becoming wiser and wiser!
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #8,768
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:02am Apr 13, 2012 6:02am
Quoting grechmar
So, the only one thing one must know is the fundamentals so to say. Eur is going down so 200 is supposed to continue move down. To do this the past 200 bars must be replicated(or more bearish for a steeper down 200ma).

On a side note, does this make sense?
coral=60 200ma= 200
200/3= ~60 , therefore 3 breaths which signal 1 complete move in the 200MA(perhaps before a significant change in angle of 200ma)
Sorry, i may have overcomplicated things a bit.
Yes. More or less the 60 will have to wave three times to match the 200 bars. Actually, the pattern is 1-2-3 and a test. You can apply the remaining 20 bars to the test to achieve the 200 bars.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,769
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:04am Apr 13, 2012 6:04am
Quoting Alorente
OK. Iīll give you an example: Letīs say the current bar closes at 1.3000 and the current bar replaced the 200th bar that was at 1.3300. This creates a drop on the 200 MA of a specific angle. Letīs say the 199th bar is at 1.3320. For the next future bar to keep the exact same angle on the 200 MA, itīs close must be approximately 1.3020. So if the 200 MA is going to remain dropping at the same angle as it usually does in a drop, by looking at the 198th, 197th, 196th , 195th bars you will get and idea of what the next 4 bars will be. Obviously, it...
Would it be possible to write an indicator to some how highlight the candle X number of bars back from the current candle? I have an indicator that highlights the hours that I trade by slightly changing the backround color which remains constant. It would awesome if say the 200th and 60th candles backround could be highlight and move as each candle closes. Because now the only way I know how to identify the candle either 60 or 200 back is to use the crosshair tool and drag it backwards.

I hope this makes sense and is also possible. I wish I knew how to code.

Robert
  • #8,770
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:05am Apr 13, 2012 6:05am
Quoting faxxion
Thank you, Alfredo.

If I understand correctly, this assumes a continuation of the trend.

What would be your signal for a future price reversal?

William
That goes back to the 1-2-3 and test pattern of movement followed by a consolidation base that varies in length. After the base you either get another 1-2-3 test continuation of trend or the same pattern in a reversal of the trend. Understand that this is on average. Sometimes you get 2 waves, sometimes 4, but most of the time it is 1-2-3 and test before the horizontal base.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,771
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:06am Apr 13, 2012 6:06am
Quoting Alorente
Yes. More or less the 60 will have to wave three times to match the 200 bars. Actually, the pattern is 1-2-3 and a test. You can apply the remaining 20 bars to the test to achieve the 200 bars.
Good, im glad I am on the right track.
  • #8,772
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:13am Apr 13, 2012 6:13am
Quoting Alorente
That goes back to the 1-2-3 and test pattern of movement followed by a consolidation base that varies in length. After the base you either get another 1-2-3 test continuation of trend or the same pattern in a reversal of the trend. Understand that this is on average. Sometimes you get 2 waves, sometimes 4, but most of the time it is 1-2-3 and test before the horizontal base.
On EurUsd H1 chart, we have completed breath or wave number one. We now can expect wave number two. Since we see by looking 200 bars back that there is a large drop due on Monday, the most probable occurrence will be a drop on Monday that will form the second breath (wave). If this doesnīt happen, the 200 MA will radically change direction. I expect it to happen and thus my major short position. If I see that it is not happening and the 200 begins to change direction, I will adjust my portfolio accordingly, but all within the planned and expected scheme of things. Even though I know all this, my frame of mind is not comfortably waiting for it to happen. Instead my frame of mind is searching like a hawk at what may be happening that will cause it not to happen. As long as I donīt find evidence to the contrary, I will prepare for it to happen and enjoy the ride, but never complacent and always skeptical.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,773
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:16am Apr 13, 2012 6:16am
Quoting Alorente
Phew... I was worried that it wasnīt coming across to you.

The key to understand here is:

1- Once a drop or a long breakout begins, the 200 MA will establish itself on a specific angle of descent or ascent and will not change that substantially. If you know this, by looking at the 200th bar, you will know what the probable new bar will be (more or less).

2- The angle of ascent or descent of the 200 MA is usually very similar to past drops and falls, so by going back on the chart you can draw a trendline through the 200 and then bring...
Never thought of it this way Al.. Thanks for the very valuable info. I will def continue to follow your thread v closely. Cheers !

Darshana.
  • #8,774
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:17am Apr 13, 2012 6:17am
Quoting Alorente
That goes back to the 1-2-3 and test pattern of movement followed by a consolidation base that varies in length. After the base you either get another 1-2-3 test continuation of trend or the same pattern in a reversal of the trend. Understand that this is on average. Sometimes you get 2 waves, sometimes 4, but most of the time it is 1-2-3 and test before the horizontal base.
Thank you, Alfredo. That makes perfect sense.
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #8,775
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:21am Apr 13, 2012 6:21am
Quoting Alorente
On EurUsd H1 chart, we have completed breath or wave number one. We now can expect wave number two. Since we see by looking 200 bars back that there is a large drop due on Monday, the most probable occurrence will be a drop on Monday that will form the second breath (wave). If this doesnīt happen, the 200 MA will radically change direction. I expect it to happen and thus my major short position. If I see that it is not happening and the 200 begins to change direction, I will adjust my portfolio accordingly, but all within the planned and expected...
Now, on top of this, add the H1 channel reaching the H4 and needing to turn down AND the H4 already dropping. Add to that the 200th and 199th bars on the Daily which shows a drop of 300 pips Monday and Tuesday. Add to that the 1600 pip drop predicted by the 200th to 170th bars on the weekly in the next 30 weeks. Add to that the predicted 350 pip drop on H4 next week, and so on and so on...

The surprising thing for me is if this DID NOT happen.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,776
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:23am Apr 13, 2012 6:23am
Alfredo

you are simply a genius and I admire you way of explaining and teaching all of us...

Remember to play some golf also, its Friday

Have a great weekend.

PC

Quoting Alorente
On EurUsd H1 chart, we have completed breath or wave number one. We now can expect wave number two. Since we see by looking 200 bars back that there is a large drop due on Monday, the most probable occurrence will be a drop on Monday that will form the second breath (wave). If this doesnīt happen, the 200 MA will radically change direction. I expect it to happen and thus my major short position. If I see that it is not happening and the 200 begins to change direction, I will adjust my portfolio accordingly, but all within the planned and expected...
Less is more...
  • #8,777
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:23am Apr 13, 2012 6:23am
Quoting Surfnomad
Would it be possible to write an indicator to some how highlight the candle X number of bars back from the current candle? I have an indicator that highlights the hours that I trade by slightly changing the backround color which remains constant. It would awesome if say the 200th and 60th candles backround could be highlight and move as each candle closes. Because now the only way I know how to identify the candle either 60 or 200 back is to use the crosshair tool and drag it backwards.

I hope this makes sense and is also possible. I wish...
I wrote that on Tradestation. It was really cool to see the bars highlighted. It was easy to code for Tradestation. I know nothing of MT4, even though Iīm sure that would not be too complicated.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,778
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:28am Apr 13, 2012 6:28am
Quoting Surfnomad
Would it be possible to write an indicator to some how highlight the candle X number of bars back from the current candle? I have an indicator that highlights the hours that I trade by slightly changing the backround color which remains constant. It would awesome if say the 200th and 60th candles backround could be highlight and move as each candle closes. Because now the only way I know how to identify the candle either 60 or 200 back is to use the crosshair tool and drag it backwards.

I hope this makes sense and is also possible. I wish...
I have set up my charts at 200 bars automatically. The template for the lorente large chart I include should show 200 bars on your charts at default zoom. For the 60 bars, I made a plastic template with two marks. One for current bar and one for the 60th bar. I just place it over the current bar and I see bar 60.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,779
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:30am Apr 13, 2012 6:30am
Quoting pipcruiser
Alfredo

you are simply a genius and I admire you way of explaining and teaching all of us...

Remember to play some golf also, its Friday

Have a great weekend.

PC
Thanks, Niels. You think too highly of me.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,780
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:35am Apr 13, 2012 6:35am
Quoting Alorente
No. You didnīt understand what I explained. The only reason I said 16 bars is because that is the number that happened to be in the highlighted box I drew on the upper left. The main point I am making is that the next future price bar replaces the 200th bar on the chart and how price acts in relation to the bar it replaces, will affect the 200 MA. So if the replaced bars happen to be going sideways and price continues sideways, the bars replacing them will not change the direction of the 200 MA. On Monday, we will replace the huge drop that occurred...
How do you setup the MT4 to display only 200 bars at any given time ? (I'm assuming there's a better way to do this than using the chart shift / zoom options ?
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