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Extreme TMA System

  • #8,741
  • Apr 13, 2012 5:40am Apr 13, 2012 5:40am
Quoting normtold
Alorente, besides saving CPU what other reasone have you decided to trade off the H1 chart instead of the M15?

I too am finding my new PC struggling, I have 2 platforms each with 6-8 charts open at any one time, use the laptop to monitor others and when they get near a trade I transfer to the PC, when I close a position from the PC I close that chart and open it back up on the laptop.

Quite a coincidence because since last week I have had both H1 and H4 TMA 2.0 and 3.0 ATR multiplier for high and low ADR pairs on the M15 chart.

I have not...
I find that the H1 chart gives me a happy medium between short term and longer term price action. The key for me was lowering the ATR Multiplier to 2.0, which allowed me to eliminate the 15 min. TMA. During the day, I change the periodicity of my charts multiple times to take a peak at what the other time frames are doing. After looking at other TFs for a minute, I return to H1 for my analysis.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,742
  • Apr 13, 2012 5:49am Apr 13, 2012 5:49am
Quoting Alorente
I will now reveal a very important part of my Breathing system.

As I stated before, it is essential for the 200 MA to continue dropping at more or less the same angle that it is now, for the Bear view on EurUsd to continue. Well, how do you know what price has to do during the next hours for the 200 MA to continue dropping? The answer is right on the chart below. Look at the upper left of the chart. I have highlighted in blue 16 bars. The first thing you must know is that I always set my charts to show exactly 200 bars. Why? Because that...
To continue on this thought and if you count off 60 bars from the right, you will see that the next 16 bars after the 60th from the right, rapidly rise. So if price remains going sideways for the next 16 hours, the 200 MA will continue dropping with the same angle BUT the Coral will level off. Once the Coral levels off, on Monday price will be ready to drop off the cliff I mentioned before and the 200 MA will continue dropping with the same angle BUT the Coral will start falling fast, thus crossing the 200 MA pretty soon afterwards. This is exactly what I think will happen.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,743
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:10am Apr 13, 2012 6:10am
Quoting Alorente
Here is the actual H1 chart. As you can see, I have removed the previous uptrend line in RSI since it was already broken. I have placed a new short term down trendline which must not be broken if price is going to cross under the 2 averages. This process of eliminating the old trendline and replacing it with the new one is extremely important and if you follow it, will give you a lot of pips.

Also, as you can see, the Feb. 28th long term down trendline is still in place, since it has not been broken.
Al, you mentioned re-entering a trade from a test of the back of a trendline and getting in after the break. Isn't this a similar situation?
Regards.
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  • #8,744
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:17am Apr 13, 2012 6:17am
Quoting FocusedonFX
Al, you mentioned re-entering a trade from a test of the back of a trendline and getting in after the break. Isn't this a similar situation?
Regards.
Very good!! Yes. This is exactly that situation. As your name states, you are focused on this.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,745
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:20am Apr 13, 2012 6:20am
Quoting Alorente
Very good!! Yes. This is exactly that situation. As your name states, you are focused on this.
Thanks. You're an awesome trader and mentor .
  • #8,746
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:24am Apr 13, 2012 6:24am
Quoting FocusedonFX
Thanks. You're an awesome trader and mentor .
Thanks. As you may know, the previous up trendline now acts as resistance, so if it is not broken to the upside, it should cap price right around where it is. If you read my posts on the 200 MA and Coral, price may move sideways against that trendline for the next hours and then fall when it falls off the cliff. Nothing is certain in Forex, but that is the probable thing to happen.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,747
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:50am Apr 13, 2012 6:50am
Quoting Alorente
To continue on this thought and if you count off 60 bars from the right, you will see that the next 16 bars after the 60th from the right, rapidly rise. So if price remains going sideways for the next 16 hours, the 200 MA will continue dropping with the same angle BUT the Coral will level off. Once the Coral levels off, on Monday price will be ready to drop off the cliff I mentioned before and the 200 MA will continue dropping with the same angle BUT the Coral will start falling fast, thus crossing the 200 MA pretty soon afterwards....
Hi Al,

does this mean you look for the 16 bars after the 60th (Coral) or 200th (200MA) from the right and check how the influence of this 16 hour price action is on the angle of the Coral/200MA? And then adapt this angle change on the current coral/200MA angle to predict the further movement?
  • #8,748
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:03am Apr 13, 2012 7:03am
Quoting Olarion1975
Hi Al,

does this mean you look for the 16 bars after the 60th (Coral) or 200th (200MA) from the right and check how the influence of this 16 hour price action is on the angle of the Coral/200MA? And then adapt this angle change on the current coral/200MA angle?
No. You didnīt understand what I explained. The only reason I said 16 bars is because that is the number that happened to be in the highlighted box I drew on the upper left. The main point I am making is that the next future price bar replaces the 200th bar on the chart and how price acts in relation to the bar it replaces, will affect the 200 MA. So if the replaced bars happen to be going sideways and price continues sideways, the bars replacing them will not change the direction of the 200 MA. On Monday, we will replace the huge drop that occurred on April 3rd, so for the 200 MA to continue dropping with the same angle, price will have to drop the same amount to replace those bars.

The same concept applies with the Coral, but instead of 200 bars you count off 60 bars from the right. The 60th bar will be replaced by the next future bar of price action

Does anyone understand what I am explaining? Please, let me know. I know it is complicated, but when you become an expert with this process, you will realize that future price is predictable to a large extent. Believe me when I tell you that over the years I have been able to predict many price movements using this method.

By the way, it works equally well in all time frames. The longer the TF, the more accurate it is in its predictions.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,749
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:04am Apr 13, 2012 7:04am
AL pienso como tu que el cambio del slope por el rsi con lines de tendencia en este es mucho mas eficaz gracias
  • #8,750
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:13am Apr 13, 2012 7:13am
Yes, I understand, thank you Al.

200sma is an average of 200 numbers (values).... if you delete one of those 200 numbers (the oldest for our purpose), and replace it with a new number that happens to be the same.... the average is unchanged.

Arithimetic. Math for the Americans! LOL.
  • #8,751
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:14am Apr 13, 2012 7:14am
FocusedonFx, do you understand what I explained in the three posts about this method of price prediction? I am passing on to you my biggest and most valuable secret. It has been key for my trading over the years. It would be a pity if you guys donīt understand it.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,752
  • Edited 7:33am Apr 13, 2012 7:14am | Edited 7:33am
Quoting Alorente
No. You didnīt understand what I explained. The only reason I said 16 bars is because that is the number that happened to be in the highlighted box I drew on the upper left. The main point I am making is that the next future price bar replaces the 200th bar on the chart and how price acts in relation to the bar it replaces, will affect the 200 MA. So if the replaced bars happen to be going sideways and price continues sideways, the bars replacing them will not change the direction of the 200 MA. On Monday, we will replace the huge drop that occurred...
Yes, i may not understand 100% but it makes much more sense now. More often then not, i could see a sort of symmetry in PA but didn't know why or how. what you have revealed today explains a lot to me!

Edit: Symmetry as in repetition of moves.
  • #8,753
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:16am Apr 13, 2012 7:16am
Quoting Jikkie
Yes, I understand, thank you Al.

200sma is an average of 200 numbers (values).... if you delete one of those 200 numbers (the oldest for our purpose), and replace it with a new number that happens to be the same.... the average is unchanged.

Arithimetic. Math for the Americans! LOL.
Exactly. Applying it to both the Coral and the 200 MA and understanding how they interrelate, will help you to predict future price action.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,754
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:22am Apr 13, 2012 7:22am
i understand Al and its amazingly simple way to predict where ma's are going. Thanks so much, Steve
  • #8,755
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:28am Apr 13, 2012 7:28am
Quoting Alorente
No. You didnīt understand what I explained. The only reason I said 16 bars is because that is the number that happened to be in the highlighted box I drew on the upper left. The main point I am making is that the next future price bar replaces the 200th bar on the chart and how price acts in relation to the bar it replaces, will affect the 200 MA. So if the replaced bars happen to be going sideways and price continues sideways, the bars replacing them will not change the direction of the 200 MA. On Monday, we will replace the huge drop that occurred...
Hello Alfredo,

I am trying to wrap my head around this, so please be patient with me.

If I understand correctly, you are saying that for the 200 MA to stay on it's current descent, the price bars that are dropping off the 200 MA must be replaced with current dropping price bars.

That explains PA in a trending market. How do you use your system to predict a trend change?

If I am completely misunderstanding, I apologize in advance.

Sincerely,

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #8,756
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:28am Apr 13, 2012 7:28am
Quoting Alorente
No. You didnīt understand what I explained. The only reason I said 16 bars is because that is the number that happened to be in the highlighted box I drew on the upper left. The main point I am making is that the next future price bar replaces the 200th bar on the chart and how price acts in relation to the bar it replaces, will affect the 200 MA. So if the replaced bars happen to be going sideways and price continues sideways, the bars replacing them will not change the direction of the 200 MA. On Monday, we will replace the huge drop that occurred...
I understand it now, thanks for the additional explanations. This could be a very valuable piece in my trader's toolbox.
  • #8,757
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:33am Apr 13, 2012 7:33am
Quoting stevewide
i understand Al and its amazingly simple way to predict where ma's are going. Thanks so much, Steve
Phew... I was worried that it wasnīt coming across to you.

The key to understand here is:

1- Once a drop or a long breakout begins, the 200 MA will establish itself on a specific angle of descent or ascent and will not change that substantially. If you know this, by looking at the 200th bar, you will know what the probable new bar will be (more or less).

2- The angle of ascent or descent of the 200 MA is usually very similar to past drops and falls, so by going back on the chart you can draw a trendline through the 200 and then bring it forward to future price action and very often it will be a very similar angle.

3- The Coral usually makes three breaths around the 200 MA. On a bull move it will do the three breaths above the average and in a Bear move, below the average.

By understanding how the MAs are supposed to act and then looking at the 200th bar and the 60th bar, you get a great clue of what price will do. Not bar by bar, of course, but overall, you get a feel for what the most probable move will be.

For example, for the 200 to remain dropping at the angle it is today, the next 14 bars will move sideways, followed by a huge drop in 15 hours (approximately). If it doesnīt do exactly this, the 200 will change direction.

I hope this makes it all a bit clearer.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,758
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:33am Apr 13, 2012 7:33am
Quoting Alorente
FocusedonFx, do you understand what I explained in the three posts about this method of price prediction? I am passing on to you my biggest and most valuable secret. It has been key for my trading over the years. It would be a pity if you guys donīt understand it.
Al, I've bookmarked the page and I'll be studying this. None of your words are wasted on me.
  • #8,759
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:38am Apr 13, 2012 7:38am
Quoting Alorente
No. You didnīt understand what I explained. The only reason I said 16 bars is because that is the number that happened to be in the highlighted box I drew on the upper left. The main point I am making is that the next future price bar replaces the 200th bar on the chart and how price acts in relation to the bar it replaces, will affect the 200 MA. So if the replaced bars happen to be going sideways and price continues sideways, the bars replacing them will not change the direction of the 200 MA. On Monday, we will replace the huge drop that occurred...

Thank you Al for your valuable insight again. I understand and see how this will improve my trading.

Robert
  • #8,760
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:39am Apr 13, 2012 7:39am
Quoting FocusedonFX
Al, I've bookmarked the page and I'll be studying this. None of your words are wasted on me.
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