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  • #7,121
  • Apr 13, 2012 3:05am Apr 13, 2012 3:05am
Quoting arasheed
I hope so. I will put a 20 Pip Trailing Stop when it moves further and later if possible remove TP.
It looks better to wait 1.3100-20 to go long . I was in too but closed small profit to protect.
  • #7,122
  • Apr 13, 2012 4:45am Apr 13, 2012 4:45am
Quoting rehepapp
It looks better to wait 1.3100-20 to go long . I was in too but closed small profit to protect.

Hi ALL,

with 2 very bullish D candles, I would expect some retracement before deciding to jump in long.
also H4 show a bearish setup with after the first 4hour of Tokyo session.
we saw how the last fwe days market traded when FFM and LON markets open. Price got driven down and up during the 2 hours overlap of Tokyo and London sessions.
So I be more cautious when LO these days. So better look at higher TF charts.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,123
  • Apr 13, 2012 4:53am Apr 13, 2012 4:53am
guys look at gbp/usd. if the price keep like this, it will forming a nice pullback candle i think, and not to mention the price just pullback from 200 ema. is the retracement finished ? well. i would watch how this price doing further. it would be great if its time for bull to make appearance
after it nearly hit my SL
  • #7,124
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:05am Apr 13, 2012 6:05am
I wonder how profitable most people are using this system?

I know Phx62 normally posts results, but he appears to be one of the few that can make this method hit anywhere near the 1000 pips mark per month.

Dont get me wrong I love the system and have made small gains myself but wonder whether on the 1hr time frame whether the system is too discretioary to be consistanty profitable.
We're all just one trade away from humility.
  • #7,125
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:26am Apr 13, 2012 6:26am
Hi,

what looks like a bullish setup to me.
the risk I see is that the time now is near to NYO.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H1 13 Apr setup 13-4-2012 7-03-36 PM.png Size: 56 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,126
  • Apr 13, 2012 7:20am Apr 13, 2012 7:20am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

what looks like a bullish setup to me.
the risk I see is that the time now is near to NYO.
just now it pullback. not a good sign + with news coming soon. well. i already gone long from long ago. so i am just hoping that the news support me.
  • #7,127
  • Apr 13, 2012 9:30am Apr 13, 2012 9:30am
wow, price fall off.. spain trouble havent sattle yet.. no trade for me today, dislike the market..

nice to hear from X-man again.. =D

hope when you find something new you can teach us sifu Xman..
  • #7,128
  • Apr 13, 2012 10:29am Apr 13, 2012 10:29am
I took this trade, because the channel was hit, bounced from EMA200, divergence. But this trade hit SL.
What are your opinions about this trade? Was it something wrong?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #7,129
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:01am Apr 13, 2012 11:01am
Quoting IenDzi
I took this trade, because the channel was hit, bounced from EMA200, divergence. But this trade hit SL.
What are your opinions about this trade? Was it something wrong?
My opinion (worth price charged) - This appears to be an ok, but not great, trade opportunity. I looked at the same trade. But there were enough opposing factors to keep me out. Such as:

- TDI was pretty flat at the cross
- No confirmed break of the blue bands (not always necessary if everything else lines up)
- Trading directly into the DPV
- Trading into an area of S/R that has caused congestion and price indecision in the past
- Only about 50 pips or so away from the next daily resistance on my charts. This area also coincides with the 60EMA. Not terrible, but I usually prefer more room to run.

Also, I fail to see any significant divergence here. So, you had a channel touch (not always reliable by itself) and a possible bounce forming from the 200 EMA with the 60 EMA about 50 pips away. I would have (and did) pass and look/wait for better opportunities. Hope this helps.
  • #7,130
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:17am Apr 13, 2012 11:17am
Quoting nGoldenm
My opinion (worth price charged) - This appears to be an ok, but not great, trade opportunity. I looked at the same trade. But there were enough opposing factors to keep me out. Such as:

- TDI was pretty flat at the cross
- No confirmed break of the blue bands (not always necessary if everything else lines up)
- Trading directly into the DPV
- Trading into an area of S/R that has caused congestion and price indecision in the past
- Only about 50 pips or so away from the next daily resistance on my charts. This area also coincides with the...
Thanks for your opinion.
I don't like trading against trend (formed lower low), but this time I saw nice channel, so I take the trade, next time I will know, what to do.
  • #7,131
  • Apr 13, 2012 11:33am Apr 13, 2012 11:33am
Out for the weekend. Choppy market conditions this week has made for tough trading. I grabbed a total of another +103 pips using a different method to add to my 42 from earlier this week.

Total of +42 pips from the H4 method for the week.

3 week running total from H4 method is +530 pips.

Have a good weekend everyone.
  • #7,132
  • Apr 13, 2012 12:39pm Apr 13, 2012 12:39pm
...good job!!!

How many trades in that 3-week period?
and.....are you "demo" or live?

THX - C..101

Quoting nGoldenm
Out for the weekend. Choppy market conditions this week has made for tough trading. I grabbed a total of another +103 pips using a different method to add to my 42 from earlier this week.

Total of +42 pips from the H4 method for the week.

3 week running total from H4 method is +530 pips.

Have a good weekend everyone.
  • #7,133
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:27pm Apr 13, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting Coast101
...good job!!!

How many trades in that 3-week period?
and.....are you "demo" or live?

THX - C..101
12 total using this method.
8 winners, 1 BE, and 3 losers.

All were documented here on this thread in my posts. I have a larger bucket of pips that I got after I became pretty proficient with the system but before I started posting here, as well as one with a hole in it where there are no pips to be seen from my feeble "This looks easy, I can do this" initial steps into the market.

Keep in mind that on 2 of the losers, I was stopped out due to short lived news spikes. I still thought I was on the correct side, so I re-entered when I saw the opportunity and turned them into winners that far outweighed the losses. One loss was just way too early of an entry. Had to wait a few days for the move to actually happen, and then jumped on the train.

Still have work to do on my exits in order to maximize the amount of pips I harvest. The 42 pips I took this week should have been 300-350, but I exited too early due to fear and not objectively analyzing the market. But, hindsight is always 20/20.

I'm still trading on demo (approaching 3 months of experience), but I have the ability to "trick my mind" into feeling as if it is real money. My stomach will sink if I see large losses, even though it's only "play money". SO, I feel as if it is giving me a chance to hone my skills before playing the real game. Once I feel I have a good strategy in place to manage my exits, I will move to live trading. This shouldn't be too much longer, as I'm working extremely diligently in backtesting different exit strategies right now.
  • #7,134
  • Edited 5:55pm Apr 13, 2012 5:53pm | Edited 5:55pm
Quoting IenDzi
I took this trade, because the channel was hit, bounced from EMA200, divergence. But this trade hit SL.
What are your opinions about this trade? Was it something wrong?

Hi IenDzi

I am not sure if you made your trade entry on H4 TF.
I usually look at higher TF - D and W candlestick patterns when I trade H4 swing method. Both candle pattern on D and W look bearish. Therefore this is the risk I see.

Also, I would draw channel or use parallel trendlines on H4 using recent swing highs and lows. This help me to see possible breakouts and also to see where price projections can potentially go to.

As an exercise, I used your chart and drew a channel on H4 using recent swing points. Let's observe how price will move next week and see if will follow the projection using the H4 channel. If that does not work out, price may bounce back into the SHI channel which you have on your chart.

Have a good weekend.
Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,135
  • Apr 13, 2012 6:04pm Apr 13, 2012 6:04pm
Haven't posted lately......been very busy with running the family business, trading and building a new house.......was blessed with a very good trading week.....would just like to share my trades for the week....6 London session trades (all taken on TDI crosses).....2-20 pip scalp trades and 2 pullback/breakout Asian session trades.....
Good trading to everyone.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012.4.13 eu week.jpg Size: 143 KB
  • #7,136
  • Apr 14, 2012 3:31am Apr 14, 2012 3:31am
Quoting nGoldenm
I grabbed a total of another +103 pips using a different method to add to my 42 from earlier this week.
So along with the 4 hr method what other method were you using?
  • #7,137
  • Apr 14, 2012 4:52am Apr 14, 2012 4:52am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi IenDzi

I am not sure if you made your trade entry on H4 TF.
I usually look at higher TF - D and W candlestick patterns when I trade H4 swing method. Both candle pattern on D and W look bearish. Therefore this is the risk I see.

Also, I would draw channel or use parallel trendlines on H4 using recent swing highs and lows. This help me to see possible breakouts and also to see where price projections can potentially go to.

As an exercise, I used your chart and drew a channel on H4 using recent swing points. Let's observe how price will move...
Hi, emmanuel7788

What do you looking for at higher TF? I saw that most time D1 shows going up, and after day you see a pullback candle, which goes down, but then it's too late to go on H4 trade, you must recognize it before this happen.
Thanks for you answers
  • #7,138
  • Apr 14, 2012 5:07am Apr 14, 2012 5:07am
Quoting Phx62
....6 London session trades (all taken on TDI crosses..
Dear Phx62,
thank you for posting your analysis! I really missed your charts.

I am still struggling with the TDI crosses. You explained this in detail in post #6882 (I printed it and read it every day), but I still don't get it.

In hindsight your entries perfectly make sense. But when I jump in right at the cross, most of the time it turns out that the cross was a fake on the next candle (TDI repaints). How do you know when NOT to enter? I don't understand how you miraculously never miss a true cross and never enter a fake cross.

- E.g. why didn't you enter the bearish cross when the 2nd red candle broke the low of the 1st red candle on April 9th?
- On April 10th you entered all three trades even before the TDI crosses and before PA confirmation (break of HH, LL).
- And on April 13th there were two fake bullish TDI crosses before the sell-off started. I took both, you didn't.

Meanwhile I have logged hundreds of backtesting hours, but I think I am still missing someting when I study your charts.

Thank you for you ongoing valuable support!

gary
  • #7,139
  • Apr 14, 2012 5:32am Apr 14, 2012 5:32am
This week gave just a very few (2 signals) for me on H4. I show an example of a winning trade of EURCAD (67 pips) and a loosing one (33 pips) of GBPAUD.

The EURCAD was a very nice setup because the price took short direction after bouncing from the resistance zone (grey shaded rectangle). I closed 70% of that trade and the rest is let to ride.

Both trades met my entry criterias. According to my exit rules I scaled out the GBPAUD so I had just moderate loss.

For me the key is to exit loosing trades when they are not developing in the direction of the entry.


Take care, thrax
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD_H4_strategy name_20120413235959.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUD_H4_strategy name_20120413235959.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #7,140
  • Apr 14, 2012 8:34am Apr 14, 2012 8:34am
Quoting usdtrader
So along with the 4 hr method what other method were you using?
It was just experiments that I was doing, which this time happened to pay off. Most of the time they don't (which is why I would not trade them live as of yet). Essentially, it has to do with S/R areas, and areas that are bounded in a range. It is more of a scalp type system trying to complement this H4 system for use in ranging markets, but it is far from being refined enough to share. This could have been a fluke.

I only wanted to point out by sharing it that when one particular method might not have worked for you in this particular week, it's always nice to have another to use.
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