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Extreme TMA System

  • #8,721
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:16am Apr 13, 2012 1:16am
Presento el nzdusd cual est u opinion Al estraia correcta mi vision de que seria short ? seria muy tarde la entrada ? es recomendable operar con el jen sabiendo lo falsete que es? .gracias
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,722
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:20am Apr 13, 2012 1:20am
Quoting Xabier
Presento el nzdusd cual est u opinion Al estraia correcta mi vision de que seria short ? seria muy tarde la entrada ? es recomendable operar con el jen sabiendo lo falsete que es? .gracias
Ya contesté en post 8717.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,723
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:21am Apr 13, 2012 1:21am
Quoting Alorente
I suggest you print out the previous points and use them for analysis in all future circumstances before you place your trade. Do this on H1, H4 and D1 charts. This is an excellent checklist to follow to stay out of trouble.
Thank you, Al! Your help is greatly appreciated...
To excel by continuous learning
  • #8,724
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:36am Apr 13, 2012 1:36am
Al en el nzd usd donde iria el tp ? en el 8235 o en el 8207 ?o donde lo colocarias y en que te basas para colocarlo .muchas gracias por sus enseñanzas .
  • #8,725
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:41am Apr 13, 2012 1:41am
Quoting Xabier
Al en el nzd usd donde iria el tp ? en el 8235 o en el 8207 ?o donde lo colocarias y en que te basas para colocarlo .muchas gracias por sus enseñanzas .
Target Price for NzdUsd will be the Coral on the H1 chart.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,726
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:44am Apr 13, 2012 1:44am
Quoting Alorente
Lucky, I agree with you. Can you please detail your analysis aside from the down trend line that I mentioned? I´d like to see what factors you work with, whether technical or fundamental. Thanks.

This is a very crude and simple daily chart i work off of for long term positions. I find it refreshing.

Fundamental Sentiment for me is a very weak Euro, as I believe that Germany is already considering an out. Spain will be the final straw imo.

The $ will remain bullish until around sept (pair perhaps after Germany bails) however soon after an intervention will take place.

Regarding the trend line position you've taken, well as I mentioned I agree because technically it was a near perfect 50% pullback and stops are being taken out. As hard it is was to wait for such a pull back with all the hype going on, it's going to pay off. IMO the hype for a Euro sell off is real, but that does not stop the market doing a classic pull back. And it could rally more tomorrow. I'm not concerned.

I will start taking profit on these positions starting next wed or so and through may. There will be a decent pullback at that point ( around support ) and I shall reload for more shorts over the remaining months. I will not be bullish on USD after Sept.
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USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #8,727
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:48am Apr 13, 2012 1:48am
Quoting LuckyLurker
This is a very crude and simple daily chart i work off of for long term positions. I find it refreshing.

Fundamental Sentiment for me is a very weak Euro, as I believe that Germany is already considering an out. Spain will be the final straw imo.

The $ will remain bullish until around sept (pair perhaps after Germany bails) however soon after an intervention will take place.

Regarding the trend line position you've taken, well as I mentioned I agree because technically it was a near perfect 50% pullback and stops are being taken out. As...
Thanks. We basically agree on all points. I´m not sure about Usd by Sept. That is light years away and many things can happen between now and then. I guess a lot will depend on what happens with the euro countries and european banks by then. Thanks for your analysis.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,728
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:55am Apr 13, 2012 1:55am
Here is the H1 chart again. As you can see, the RSI up trendline is now broken. The Trix continues very bearish. A critical point is about to happen. Price is approaching the Coral/200 MA. This will be tough to break. If it does, the next hurdle will be the H1 bottom band (I have mine set at 2.0 ATR Multiplier).

The H1 channel is still climbing and this bothers me. Price will have to turn it down before it heads for the neckline below (Blue line)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.jpg Size: 139 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,729
  • Apr 13, 2012 1:59am Apr 13, 2012 1:59am
Quoting Alorente
Thanks. We basically agree on all points. I´m not sure about Usd by Sept. That is light years away and many things can happen between now and then. I guess a lot will depend on what happens with the euro countries and european banks by then. Thanks for your analysis.
Ya, I try and stay a few months out on analysis. I can promise you this though, whichever direction its going, I'll be trading it.
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #8,730
  • Edited 2:38am Apr 13, 2012 2:27am | Edited 2:38am
After thoroughly testing the Extreme TMA system, I have made my final choice on the configuration I will be using from now on.

I have removed the 15 minute TMA from my charts since I will now be trading directly from the H1 chart. This will also relieve the processor from excess workload. I have 16 charts open plus 2 Dashboards and it was becoming a bit too much.

To compensate for not having the 15 min. TMA, I have changed the H1 ATR Multiplier to 2.0 for ALL pairs (Low and High ATR). This allows for about 80 pips band to band and price seems to like expanding that band width. I have left the H4 ATR Multiplier at 3.0 for ALL pairs (Low and High ATR).

I have replaced the Slope Indicator with RSI. I love the Slope Indi but I find myself half blind without my RSI and its trendlines. I will sporadically look at the Slope indi to check for divergences.

An added benefit of this configuration is less clutter, which is always a good thing.

Attached is the new updated template. I have added it to the packet.zip file.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl lorente large chart.tpl   40 KB | 701 downloads
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,731
  • Apr 13, 2012 2:40am Apr 13, 2012 2:40am
Thank you Al.

suggestion... as this thread gets longer and longer (thank goodness i found you a while ago! LOL), perhaps it would be helpful if when you update the packet on post #1, you also copy the post explaining the changes, with the date, into the bottom of post #1.

I think it gives people a chance to follow the evolution... i know we all say "read the thread" but there is so much of it...
  • #8,732
  • Apr 13, 2012 2:42am Apr 13, 2012 2:42am
Quoting Alorente
EurUsd H1 chart shows price trying to break the up trendline while respecting the down trendline that began on February 24th. The Trix is very bearish and the Coral and 200 MA have now reached each other. All we need is for price to break both averages to the downside to confirm a continuation of the drop that I have been anticipating. If it is going to happen, it should be today.
Hi Al, quick question.. Pls do excuse me if its silly or the answer is obvious ! In the EU 60m chart u posted, u correctly mentioned that the Coral line and the 200SMA lines were coming together. If they keep going in the respective directions, Coral will be above 200SMA line.. which would indicate bullish market right (as per your later post) ? However, you are of the opinion that the market will weaken and EU is expected to hit 1.26 levels which is contradicting to what the Coral / 200SMA behavior is telling us (bullish).. What am I missing ?

Darshana
  • #8,733
  • Apr 13, 2012 2:42am Apr 13, 2012 2:42am
Quoting Jikkie
Thank you Al.

suggestion... as this thread gets longer and longer (thank goodness i found you a while ago! LOL), perhaps it would be helpful if when you update the packet on post #1, you also copy the post explaining the changes, with the date, into the bottom of post #1.

I think it gives people a chance to follow the evolution... i know we all say "read the thread" but there is so much of it...
Good suggestion. I will add it right now.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,734
  • Apr 13, 2012 2:49am Apr 13, 2012 2:49am
Quoting Alorente
The Coral and 200 MA are strong support and resistance levels. The 200 MA is also a good indicator of the trend. Coral above 200MA indicates a bull market. Coral below the 200 MA shows a bear market.

The Coral is not a SMA. It is a triple exponential MA with a period of 60.
Hi Al, on H1 EurUsd Coral has crossed 200MA and now above it, but we expect drop down. Could you please clarify (sorry I'm still new)?
The price has bounced off Coral (1.3142), if it's not broken do you think it'll go back to yesterday high?
Many thanks
  • #8,735
  • Apr 13, 2012 2:50am Apr 13, 2012 2:50am
Quoting darshanag
Hi Al, quick question.. Pls do excuse me if its silly or the answer is obvious ! In the EU 60m chart u posted, u correctly mentioned that the Coral line and the 200SMA lines were coming together. If they keep going in the respective directions, Coral will be above 200SMA line.. which would indicate bullish market right (as per your later post) ? However, you are of the opinion that the market will weaken and EU is expected to hit 1.26 levels which is contradicting to what the Coral / 200SMA behavior is telling us (bullish).. What am I missing ?...
You are correct, however, it is normal for the Coral to temporarily cross the 200 MA. It is critical though that price crosses underneath both averages soon and starts to turn the Coral down and ultimately under the 200 MA. If it doesn´t and price heads higher again turning the 200 MA upward, I will have to reconsider my position. For now, everything is going as expected.

Another thing that is also critical is the break of the short term up trendline in H4 RSI. Both conditions should happen simultaneously.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,736
  • Apr 13, 2012 2:52am Apr 13, 2012 2:52am
Quoting ludivik
Hi Al, on H1 EurUsd Coral has crossed 200MA and now above it, but we expect drop down. Could you please clarify (sorry I'm still new)?
The price has bounced off Coral (1.3142), if it's not broken do you think it'll go back to yesterday high?
Many thanks
Question answered on post 8735.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,737
  • Apr 13, 2012 2:57am Apr 13, 2012 2:57am
Quoting Alorente
You are correct, however, it is normal for the Coral to temporarily cross the 200 MA. It is critical though that price crosses underneath both averages soon and starts to turn the Coral down and ultimately under the 200 MA. If it doesn´t and price heads higher again turning the 200 MA upward, I will have to reconsider my position. For now, everything is going as expected.

Another thing that is also critical is the break of the short term up trendline in H4 RSI. Both conditions should happen simultaneously.
Thanks for the clarification and extremely quick reply ! Lets wait and c how things develop.. Cheers !
  • #8,738
  • Apr 13, 2012 3:03am Apr 13, 2012 3:03am
Here is the actual H1 chart. As you can see, I have removed the previous uptrend line in RSI since it was already broken. I have placed a new short term down trendline which must not be broken if price is going to cross under the 2 averages. This process of eliminating the old trendline and replacing it with the new one is extremely important and if you follow it, will give you a lot of pips.

Also, as you can see, the Feb. 28th long term down trendline is still in place, since it has not been broken.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.jpg Size: 137 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,739
  • Apr 13, 2012 3:15am Apr 13, 2012 3:15am
Alorente, besides saving CPU what other reasone have you decided to trade off the H1 chart instead of the M15?

I too am finding my new PC struggling, I have 2 platforms each with 6-8 charts open at any one time, use the laptop to monitor others and when they get near a trade I transfer to the PC, when I close a position from the PC I close that chart and open it back up on the laptop.

Quite a coincidence because since last week I have had both H1 and H4 TMA 2.0 and 3.0 ATR multiplier for high and low ADR pairs on the M15 chart.

I have not tried trading off H1 as I assumed drawdown would be bigger and reversals before TP reached more common.

I really also like the slope indicator and find it invaluable especially to see if it is currently rising or falling.
  • #8,740
  • Apr 13, 2012 3:32am Apr 13, 2012 3:32am
I will now reveal a very important part of my Breathing system.

As I stated before, it is essential for the 200 MA to continue dropping at more or less the same angle that it is now, for the Bear view on EurUsd to continue. Well, how do you know what price has to do during the next hours for the 200 MA to continue dropping? The answer is right on the chart below. Look at the upper left of the chart. I have highlighted in blue 16 bars. The first thing you must know is that I always set my charts to show exactly 200 bars. Why? Because that will tell me what price has to do for the 200 MA to continue what it is doing. How? The new price bar, will replace the 200th bar on the chart which is the leftmost bar highlighted. By looking at these bars, you will see that the new bars have to go more or less sideways for the 200 MA to keep the same angle of descent. If price drops during the next 16 hours, the 200 MA will drop more than it is doing now. If price rises during those hours, the 200 MA will start leveling off which would be bad news for us shorts. After the first 16 hours, you see what should happen to price for the 200 MA to continue on its merry way down. It has to fall off a cliff. That would be a Monday event though.

I hope you realize how important this is. I use this system that I created 20 years ago to more or less foretell the probable future in price action.

By the way, the same process works for the Coral. I have a paper template that is pre measured to signal to me which is the 60th bar on my screen (Since the Coral is a 60 EMA). This way you can foretell how the Coral will move also.

As you practice using this system you will find it invaluable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.jpg Size: 136 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
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