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AUD/USD

  • #42,941
  • Apr 11, 2012 11:21pm Apr 11, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting RRRulio
Any view on AUD/CAD? It seems to be even more overbought then AUDUSD.
IMHO short.
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  • #42,942
  • Apr 11, 2012 11:34pm Apr 11, 2012 11:34pm
Thanks, went short at 1.0395. I agree with your analysis.
  • #42,943
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:09am Apr 12, 2012 12:09am
First time posting a chart on here and im at uni limited tools to use on the platform im using at the moment! thoughts on going back down to 1.0252
?
added another short at 1.0380 tight stop at 1.0395

: It is looking pretty strong for another push though
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  • #42,944
  • Apr 12, 2012 12:55am Apr 12, 2012 12:55am
Glad to finally see a little upwards movement for those of us holding longs. It's been pretty hard work these last few weeks but I'm still standing as solid as a rock with a heavily long position.

There may be plenty more downside in the short term but even at the current price it seems like a great medium to long term buy particularly with that juicy swap.

Just a tip for tomorrow, I'm very confident of better than expected GDP numbers for China. Likely to see a very nice spike up in the Aussie tomorrow. Just before the announcement, I will jump in with a large long position. Good luck gents
  • #42,945
  • Apr 12, 2012 1:04am Apr 12, 2012 1:04am
I was just checking out the up coming usd data,
US Core PPI m/m is expected a 1% decrease-bad?
US Trade balance is expected to still be low at -51.9b from -52.6b-bad?
US is expected to have 2k less unemployment claims-measly gain
US Natural Gas storage is expected to be down 22b from 42b-bad?

Lets see how much damage it can do, havnt seen aud take out a high in a while so am in doubt, waiting it out, china should have a nicey tomorow

^_^
  • #42,946
  • Apr 12, 2012 1:34am Apr 12, 2012 1:34am
I've been quietly accumulating a position in AUD/USD and have an average of about 1.2880. Take a look at the first daily chart. It appears PA found some support on the down trend line that was broken to the upside in January. We've finally retested it while being enclosed in a down-trend channel since February.As you can see, we're potentially breaking out of that channel now. Also notice how the 61.8% fib retracement served as nice converging support zone with the down trend line I spoke of earlier.

Take a closer look at the 4H shows the potential break-out from the down-trend channel. My advice is to look to the fib zones for potential targets and pullbacks. Notice how the 50% fib served as a rejection zone for the first attempt to break higher just the other night. Well, we came back and made it through, but I'd still prefer to see a run up toward the 38.2% fib zone above 1.0450 at a minimum.

I think this is very doable and if AUD/USD can hold well above this down-trend channel, we could be entering into a new bull leg for the pair. If so, a fib extension based off the daily chart puts a target in the 1.1200 zone, but I won't hurt your heads too much talking about that yet ;-)
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check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #42,947
  • Apr 12, 2012 1:43am Apr 12, 2012 1:43am
Quoting diggo
Glad to finally see a little upwards movement for those of us holding longs. It's been pretty hard work these last few weeks but I'm still standing as solid as a rock with a heavily long position.

There may be plenty more downside in the short term but even at the current price it seems like a great medium to long term buy particularly with that juicy swap.

Just a tip for tomorrow, I'm very confident of better than expected GDP numbers for China. Likely to see a very nice spike up in the Aussie tomorrow. Just before the announcement, I will...
Nice going hanging in there, I know that last couple of weeks have been tough. Feels good to be holding long today, and with those numbers (44K) blowing past expectations it looks as if the rate cut is surely put on hold.

Shorts are probably still holding (in hope mode) right now. I do not know what to expect with the China GBP numbers tomorrow. Why are you so confident? Just a feeling or something a bit more concrete. Good numbers out of China tomorrow would send this pair up nicely.
  • #42,948
  • Apr 12, 2012 1:46am Apr 12, 2012 1:46am
Closed BUY NZD/USD on 0,82175 for 15,20 pips, I am out at the moment
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  • #42,949
  • Apr 12, 2012 1:48am Apr 12, 2012 1:48am
Quoting Intrepid32
Short 1.0373....SL 1.0407 Target 1.0170

*Daily Descending Trend Line Resistance
*23% Retracement off 2/29 high of 1.0853 to yesterdays low of 1.0225
*61% Retracement from 4/2 high of 1.0466 to yesterdays low of 1.0225
*Ascending Channel Resistance off 4Hr candles since 4/5
*200EMA Resistance on 4Hr
*Shooting Star Reversal Candle on 5M
Stop getting close
Shooting star on 5M not reliable than higher TF especially In Asia Session
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #42,950
  • Apr 12, 2012 1:48am Apr 12, 2012 1:48am
has not triggered it yet, not more valid
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  • #42,951
  • Apr 12, 2012 1:55am Apr 12, 2012 1:55am
Geppy, brilliant analysis! Many thanks.. I've had a yearly target in the 1.12 to 1.15 range myself for a while. It certainly does look like the tide is turning. For now we need to sit and wait for some important figures to be released, perhaps we will have a better price to long in the coming days.

Quoting prive
Nice going hanging in there, I know that last couple of weeks have been tough. Feels good to be holding long today, and with those numbers (44K) blowing past expectations it looks as if the rate cut is surely put on hold.

Shorts are probably still holding (in hope mode) right now. I do not know what to expect with the China GBP numbers tomorrow. Why are you so confident? Just a feeling or something a bit more concrete. Good numbers out of China tomorrow would send this pair up nicely.
Rate cut should still happen. Even a 50 basis point cut is a chance, albeit less likely now. Already priced in as a ~70% chance, a rate cut next month will cause some brief consolidation before a continuation of the up trend.
  • #42,952
  • Apr 12, 2012 2:09am Apr 12, 2012 2:09am
400 taken, wipe those smirks of the bears faces aud
  • #42,953
  • Apr 12, 2012 2:20am Apr 12, 2012 2:20am
Quoting Noobicle
400 taken, wipe those smirks of the bears faces aud
Finally us bulls get a break...
  • #42,954
  • Apr 12, 2012 2:40am Apr 12, 2012 2:40am
I've always wondered why one report is enuff to suddenly change everyone's bias on both AU and the IR.

May12 is at 95.95
Jun12 96.075
.
.
.
Nov12 96.505

  • #42,955
  • Apr 12, 2012 2:48am Apr 12, 2012 2:48am
Quoting johnnypocket
Finally us bulls get a break...
The 1.0225 bottom has to survive this upcoming usd session an good gdp from china tomorrow to confirm the bulls got this or atleast send it to a consolidation where itll most likely go up after its done
  • #42,956
  • Apr 12, 2012 2:52am Apr 12, 2012 2:52am
Quoting Eulogy
I've always wondered why one report is enuff to suddenly change everyone's bias on both AU and the IR.

May12 is at 95.95
Jun12 96.075
.
.
.
Nov12 96.505

I had a quick scan of the fundamentals at the beggining of the week an 'guessed 500 will be hit by the week-end (to lazy to find it an quote) was a little to high i think but who knows
  • #42,957
  • Apr 12, 2012 3:19am Apr 12, 2012 3:19am
Quoting Eulogy
I've always wondered why one report is enuff to suddenly change everyone's bias on both AU and the IR.

May12 is at 95.95
Jun12 96.075
.
.
.
Nov12 96.505

I doubt one report is enuff.It must be a lot of reports put together making this move and it is almost impossible to piece together a picture from them telling the right direction.At the same time,there are lots of secrets never disclosed at all,so it is God work.
  • #42,958
  • Apr 12, 2012 3:26am Apr 12, 2012 3:26am
Quoting Noobicle
The 1.0225 bottom has to survive this upcoming usd session an good gdp from china tomorrow to confirm the bulls got this or atleast send it to a consolidation where itll most likely go up after its done
Gold and Silver shall take AUD to a new high soon.
  • #42,959
  • Apr 12, 2012 4:24am Apr 12, 2012 4:24am
The Shocking Truth About Unemployment In America In One Chart

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...a-in-one-chart
  • #42,960
  • Apr 12, 2012 4:28am Apr 12, 2012 4:28am
Quoting FXMindset
Bullish setup

Waiting for TB to get in.
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
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