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  • #8,461
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:28am Apr 10, 2012 10:28am
Thank-you Alorente, Nanningbob and Ever E Man for your replies.

By the way look at M15 EurNzd if you have not already seen it.

Regards
  • #8,462
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:41am Apr 10, 2012 10:41am
Quoting Olarion1975
Hi Al,

do you mean the 200MA and Coral on a M15 chart?
Must it not be the other way round, D1 trend from the Coral and W1 trend from the 200MA?
No. The Coral is calculated with the last 60 bars and the 200 MA with the last 200. 60 weeks clearly indicates the trend. 200 days does also. You cannot determine the REAL trend with a 15 minute chart.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,463
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:46am Apr 10, 2012 10:46am
Price hitting D1 bottom band, so exited another position with 224 pips.
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #8,464
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:49am Apr 10, 2012 10:49am
Quoting DrDave
Price hitting D1 bottom band, so exited another position with 224 pips.
Excellent work.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,465
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:56am Apr 10, 2012 10:56am
EurUsd only 15 pips away from the Head and Shoulders neckline. Will it hold?...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,466
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:56am Apr 10, 2012 10:56am
Quoting Alorente
No. The Coral is calculated with the last 60 bars and the 200 MA with the last 200. 60 weeks clearly indicates the trend. 200 days does also. You cannot determine the REAL trend with a 15 minute chart.
Al,

What exactly are you calling the "real" trend??

Because of the fractal nature of price versus time, you cannot know what time period you are examining when viewing a chart without axis labels. Therefore, a chart plotted at any time frame that shows a trend is a "real" trend.

Now if you want to specify that you are going to qualify a trend by comparing a smaller time period to some other higher time period, then that is a different matter.

If the D1 has price clearly going down with time while the H1 clearly has price going up with time, and I decide to trade the M15, I may decide that the H1 going up is the "real" trend direction for my trade, while someone else would say the D1 going down is the "real" trend direction for my trade. We could continue moving to other time frames and claim the even larger time frame is the "real" trend direction. Where do you want to stop? Weekly, monthly, yearly, 10 year, 50 year??

DrDave
To free Gazans of Hamas, use whatever it takes.
  • #8,467
  • Apr 10, 2012 11:09am Apr 10, 2012 11:09am
nanningbob i love your signature . . .

The brain is a wonderful organ, it works 24/7 from the day you were born until the day you make your first live trade.
Humble & Kalcker CLO2 = Covid killer
  • #8,468
  • Apr 10, 2012 11:25am Apr 10, 2012 11:25am
Hi All,
I am working my way through the pages and cant seem to find the Extreme_Spike indicator shown at the begginning from the zipped packets etc. Can anyone post it for me please
I see that in the later pages it was dropped. Any reason?
  • #8,469
  • Apr 10, 2012 11:29am Apr 10, 2012 11:29am
Quoting DrDave
Al,

What exactly are you calling the "real" trend??

Because of the fractal nature of price versus time, you cannot know what time period you are examining when viewing a chart without axis labels. Therefore, a chart plotted at any time frame that shows a trend is a "real" trend.

Now if you want to specify that you are going to qualify a trend by comparing a smaller time period to some other higher time period, then that is a different matter.

If the D1 has price clearly going down with time while the H1 clearly has price going up with...
I understand what you are saying. Trend definition is always a difficult subject. I believe a real trend is a longer term trend that is persistent over time. For example, the trend UsdJpy has been for the past 4 years. Or the trend Gold was in for 8 years until recently. Since the high of 1.4500 last August, I believe EurUsd´s real trend is down and still has a long way to go. I like to look at the direction of the Coral on the weekly among other things to help me determine if a pair is in a real trend or ranging. There is no doubt that there is subjectivity involved in reaching that conclusion.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,470
  • Apr 10, 2012 11:44am Apr 10, 2012 11:44am
Quoting Ever E. Man
Your knowledge makes me wish I understood the market better.

It seems to me that your excellent advice is a good example of a problem with all "simple" systems, especially for new traders.

If you had a disclaimer on Page 1 that says something like this:

"No set of rules will work all the time, and a firm knowledge of market conditions gained through long experience and careful observation is necessary to know when the rules should, and should not, be overridden.

[color=black][font=Verdana][i]For...
well said, i wish i could write like u, i understood this 2 wks ago & since then never had a loser
thanks
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #8,471
  • Apr 10, 2012 11:56am Apr 10, 2012 11:56am
Al,

Is It normal the TMA 15 min and TMA 1H go to extremity of bottom TMA 4H? Or my TMA Set up is wrong? I know the EURJPY, in this moment, is oversold but....

Thanks for your support!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.gif Size: 86 KB
If I Change, the whole World changes!
  • #8,472
  • Apr 10, 2012 12:04pm Apr 10, 2012 12:04pm
At the far left of the rsi indy starts trendline which offered a long downtrend finally broken on 4.6.2012.

After this, a new trendline could be drawn showing an uptrend period till broken today.

Before it was broken see the short horizontal divergence trendline signalling possible reversal.

Finally, the current trendline is drawn when rsi comes back to retest the previous trendline which became a powerful entry signal at the big red arrow; now go to TMA charts and look for an entry.

Took 50 pips off this when rsi touched 1h trendline and 2nd trix red color changed to red on 1m TMA chart (2nd attachment).

Since this looked like a powerful setup I stayed in till 5m lower TMA band shown in 3nd attachment.

Question for Al: Should I have waited till 1h rsi closed before considering a trade or is the touch of the rsi sufficient?

My notes say you suggest staying in longer term trades till the 1h rsi closes accross the trendline but 50 pips was enough on this trade while I learn.

Thanks Al for real, classic, proven technical analysis. I hope my question and presentation helps someone understand using rsi better.

Steve
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu rsi tl.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 1m entry.jpg Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 5m exit.jpg Size: 144 KB
  • #8,473
  • Apr 10, 2012 12:06pm Apr 10, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting Forex Girl
Al,

Is It normal the TMA 15 min and TMA 1H go to extremity of bottom TMA 4H? Or my TMA Set up is wrong? I know the EURJPY, in this moment, is oversold but....

Thanks for your support!
Yes. It is normal. Only by doing that will the H1 and H4 TMAs turn down as I think they are going to.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,474
  • Apr 10, 2012 12:08pm Apr 10, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting stevewide
At the far left of the rsi indy starts trendline which offered a long downtrend finally broken on 4.6.2012.

After this, a new trendline could be drawn showing an uptrend period till broken today.

Before it was broken see the short horizontal divergence trendline signalling possible reversal.

Finally, the current trendline is drawn when rsi comes back to retest the previous trendline which became a powerful entry signal at the big red arrow; now go to TMA charts and look for an entry.

Took 50 pips off this when rsi touched 1h trendline and...
RSI is only valid at close of candle. What happens before the close is totally irrelevant as far as RSI is concerned.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,475
  • Apr 10, 2012 12:10pm Apr 10, 2012 12:10pm
I've been long usd/jpy since yesterday. I was wondering, how did you determine that the pair would be weak in the short term?
  • #8,476
  • Apr 10, 2012 12:11pm Apr 10, 2012 12:11pm
Quoting stevewide
At the far left of the rsi indy starts trendline which offered a long downtrend finally broken on 4.6.2012.

After this, a new trendline could be drawn showing an uptrend period till broken today.

Before it was broken see the short horizontal divergence trendline signalling possible reversal.

Finally, the current trendline is drawn when rsi comes back to retest the previous trendline which became a powerful entry signal at the big red arrow; now go to TMA charts and look for an entry.

Took 50 pips off this when rsi touched 1h trendline and...
By the way, very good work with your RSI trendlines. If you keep doing this and combining it with TMA, you are going to make a lot of pips going forward.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,477
  • Apr 10, 2012 12:20pm Apr 10, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting saussiche
I've been long usd/jpy since yesterday. I was wondering, how did you determine that the pair would be weak in the short term?
Below is the Daily UsdJpy. After a four year drop and a 6 month horizontal base, after a break of that base, it is normal to test the top of it before progressing higher. Also, it is normal for such a fast rise to retrace to the Fibonacci 61.8% level (Golden Retracement). Both of these levels coincide at 79.13. I expect UsdJpy to drop to this level before continuing to rise.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy.jpg Size: 154 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,478
  • Apr 10, 2012 12:23pm Apr 10, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting Alorente
By the way, very good work with your RSI trendlines. If you keep doing this and combining it with TMA, you are going to make a lot of pips going forward.
Thanks again Al; this may be the breakthrough for me. Steve
  • #8,479
  • Apr 10, 2012 12:24pm Apr 10, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting Alorente
Below is the Daily UsdJpy. After a four year drop and a 6 month horizontal base, after a break of that base, it is normal to test the top of it before progressing higher. Also, it is normal for such a fast rise to retrace to the Fibonacci 61.8% level (Golden Retracement). Both of these levels coincide at 79.13. I expect UsdJpy to drop to this level before continuing to rise.
Thanks. It's too bad I didn't see this beforehand,

Maybe there is a way this info can be reflected on the lower time frame templates?
  • #8,480
  • Apr 10, 2012 12:40pm Apr 10, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting saussiche
Thanks. It's too bad I didn't see this beforehand,

Maybe there is a way this info can be reflected on the lower time frame templates?
Your analysis of all pairs should begin with the Weekly chart followed by the Daily chart, the H4, the H1, all the way down to the M5. Before you enter any trade ALL chart time frames must agree that the trade you are about to enter is a plausible one.

During the course of a day, I constantly check different time frames on all the pairs I follow. In most cases, I analyze each chart over 10 times during the day. I am sure I "read" at least 1000 charts every single day to make sure the whole puzzle fits and comes together. I find this work to be essential if you want to be a consistently profitable trader.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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