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Attachments: My trades by Dave
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My trades by Dave

  • #1,061
  • May 3, 2006 4:29pm May 3, 2006 4:29pm
here is a chart.

Theres the wedge I spoke of befor.


Dave
Attached Image
  • #1,062
  • May 4, 2006 5:51am May 4, 2006 5:51am
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
short eur$

1.2640

s/l 1.2656

target open


Dave
exit: 1.2600


+ 40 pips
  • #1,063
  • May 4, 2006 9:55pm May 4, 2006 9:55pm
Long eur$

1.2692


s/l 1.2675


target open

Dave
  • #1,064
  • May 5, 2006 4:23pm May 5, 2006 4:23pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Long eur$

1.2692


s/l 1.2675


target open

Dave
exited 1.2705 (got sceered) +13 pips

I figured the price wasn't gonna do any thing untill this morn.

Dave
  • #1,065
  • May 5, 2006 4:31pm May 5, 2006 4:31pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
exited 1.2705 (got sceered) +13 pips

I figured the price wasn't gonna do any thing untill this morn.

Dave
What time did you close this trade? I was looking at the price charts from yesterday around the time you posted this and I was trying to figure out how you avoided hitting your stop loss. It looks like it touched it several times before today.
  • #1,066
  • May 5, 2006 4:35pm May 5, 2006 4:35pm
I have found a rare set up that has only occured 3 times in the last 3 years.

I have circled the candles on the weekly chart that we are to be looking at.

I have a 4 EMA (teal) and an 8 EMA (red) that I have been using for an entry crossover.
I noticed on the weekly chart 99% of all the candles touch the 4 ema. I have circled 3 others besides the current weekly candle.In all 3 cases the week closed never having touched the 4 ema.
Notice that in all 3 casses the following weekly candle took a sharp reversal.
On the 2 bear candles the candle was 2 times as long as the previous. And on the 1 bull candle it reached to the high of the previous and the following 2 continued up.

I feel like I have stumbled on something big. And rare.

This weeks candle is 200 pips. If the pattern is repeted then next weeks candle range should be 300-400 pips down.

But to eliminate the guess work I will wait untill next weeks candle pops up and see what the 4 ema is. The next candle will at the very least come down to touch the 4 ema befor going up. You see the likelyness of it not going down to the 4 ema is slim. I feel like this is a high probility trade. And great oppertunity to capitalize.



Dave
Attached Image
  • #1,067
  • May 5, 2006 8:50pm May 5, 2006 8:50pm
nice little observation there dave, actually there are other candles on the weekly who have not touched yet haven't reversed, so be careful. To help you with that, attached is a little indicator that simply finds those candles you mention and draws an arrow above or below.

I think this part of your comment:

Quote
The next candle will at the very least come down to touch the 4 ema befor going up

has the most potential just from quick observation, if as you say 99% of candles at least touch the ema, then if you find each candle that opens above or below the ema, open a trade towards the ema and close at hit, you might just have a nice little bankroll for your main system. I will whip something together in terms of backtesting and see what happens and let you know.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 EMA_Pivot.mq4   2 KB | 263 downloads
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #1,068
  • May 5, 2006 9:41pm May 5, 2006 9:41pm
Quoting Akuma99
nice little observation there dave, actually there are other candles on the weekly who have not touched yet haven't reversed, so be careful. To help you with that, attached is a little indicator that simply finds those candles you mention and draws an arrow above or below.

I think this part of your comment:



has the most potential just from quick observation, if as you say 99% of candles at least touch the ema, then if you find each candle that opens above or below the ema, open a trade towards the ema and close at hit, you might just have a nice little bankroll for your main system. I will whip something together in terms of backtesting and see what happens and let you know.
Akuma,

Thanks for your help. I don't have the program or what ever I need to open that file with. And cann't find it with google.

Dave
  • #1,069
  • May 6, 2006 6:06am May 6, 2006 6:06am
Ah sorry Dave, sometimes I assume everyone has what I do .. that is an indcator fro Metatrader 4, that can be found at http://www.metaquotes.net
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #1,070
  • May 7, 2006 4:35am May 7, 2006 4:35am
For those that don't have MT4, here is the EUR/USD weekly chart back to mid 2003 with the arrows indicating a candle that does not touch the 4EMA as mentioned by dave:

http://img214.imageshack.us/img214/6830/eurusd4ua.gif

Note there are a few bars there that look like they are touch the 4ema, but zoomed up and with the ema line thickness at 1 point they actually are not. There does seem to be something to it, but it seems the bars that have a clear gap are more reliable.

And again, but looking from 1999 to 2003:

http://img56.imageshack.us/img56/1125/eurusd8mv.gif

You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #1,071
  • May 7, 2006 7:48am May 7, 2006 7:48am
thanks for the back test.

the only question is did the very next candle touch the 4 ema befor going in the trend direction? The trade would be to make a trade apon the open of the next candle and exit at the 4 ema befor it reverses back to trend

I think the more gap between candle and 4 ema the better. Its trading the gap. So the gap needs to be something worth going after.

no clear gap no trade. some times the eye can filter false signals better than the cpu.

I want to see the gap when the new weekly candle appears. because the ema will extend and the gap wont look as big as it does now.



Dave
  • #1,072
  • May 7, 2006 6:24pm May 7, 2006 6:24pm
the weekly 4 ema is now at 1.2608.. The daily is 1.2699.

By the end of the week it should have come close to 1.2608 range.

by the end of the day it should be near 1.2699

lets see what happens.

short entered 1.2740 s/l 1.2758

target open

Dave
  • #1,073
  • May 7, 2006 6:25pm May 7, 2006 6:25pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
the weekly 4 ema is now at 1.2608.. The daily is 1.2699.

By the end of the week it should have come close to 1.2608 range.

by the end of the day it should be near 1.2699

lets see what happens.

short entered 1.2740 s/l 1.2758

target open

Dave
exit BE wait for reentry
  • #1,074
  • May 7, 2006 7:09pm May 7, 2006 7:09pm
short 1.2743

s/l 1.2758


target open...i'llpost chart in a few.


got a 3 pip better entry.

Dave
  • #1,075
  • May 7, 2006 7:39pm May 7, 2006 7:39pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
short 1.2743

s/l 1.2758


target open...i'llpost chart in a few.


got a 3 pip better entry.

Dave
heres chart.
Attached Image
  • #1,076
  • May 7, 2006 8:06pm May 7, 2006 8:06pm
exit 1.2720


testing middle hourly bolli band.


+23 pips


could be a rally back up or a break I'll sit and wait.

dave
  • #1,077
  • May 7, 2006 8:41pm May 7, 2006 8:41pm
i found what seems to be a powerfull indacater.


heres chart.

55 ema of the open and 55 ema of the close.

8 ema of the open

4 ema of the close.


put this on the 1 min chart. because 55 is the closest fibo # to 60 min. Look for the 8 ema to cross the 55. and you can trade a cross of the 4 and 8 and target the 55 ema.

Dave
Attached Image
  • #1,078
  • May 8, 2006 6:04pm May 8, 2006 6:04pm
long entry eur/$


1.2699

s/l 1.2685

target open

finding support at the 4 hr bolli band i expect at least a small bounce

chart in a few min

Dave
  • #1,079
  • May 8, 2006 6:12pm May 8, 2006 6:12pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
long entry eur/$


1.2699

s/l 1.2685

target open

finding support at the 4 hr bolli band i expect at least a small bounce

chart in a few min

Dave
heres chart. 1 min 55 ema cross entry. and the 5 and 10 min macD is crossing too.

Dave
Attached Image
  • #1,080
  • May 8, 2006 7:33pm May 8, 2006 7:33pm
entry bombed. now hopeing for middle bolli break to be false break if the price don't close below. came 2 pips from s/l so far. holding for a possible better exit if price dont bounce


Dave
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