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Extreme TMA System

  • #8,441
  • Apr 10, 2012 6:17am Apr 10, 2012 6:17am
Quoting Alorente
Here it is. This template is not part of the Extreme TMA system. Please, do not confuse them.
Please, note that you may not have all the indicators that you need to run this template.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,442
  • Apr 10, 2012 6:18am Apr 10, 2012 6:18am
Quoting nanningbob
CHF and JPY want nothing to do with a flight to its currency
That is true Bob, but in life you donīt always get what you want. In the long run, though, Japan will continue their monetary easing and USD should go to 110 to 120 yen, but short term, I would not be surprised to see 79+ again on UsdJpy.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,443
  • Apr 10, 2012 6:29am Apr 10, 2012 6:29am
Quoting faxxion
Hello Alfredo,

I know that you have told us that when we trade the M5 TF we almost always get a second test of the bands. I am noticing that also on M15. Do you trade the first signal or the 2nd test?

William
I use to trade the first signal for years because I was impatient of character. I have worked on that the past few years and I now wait for the test.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,444
  • Apr 10, 2012 6:31am Apr 10, 2012 6:31am
Quoting Alorente
I have said it before and I will say it again. Try not to go long the Euro. It is in repricing mode right now. It will not stop until at least a test of 1.2600. Please, try not to short USD either.
Your knowledge makes me wish I understood the market better.

It seems to me that your excellent advice is a good example of a problem with all "simple" systems, especially for new traders.

If you had a disclaimer on Page 1 that says something like this:

"No set of rules will work all the time, and a firm knowledge of market conditions gained through long experience and careful observation is necessary to know when the rules should, and should not, be overridden.

For example, when the economy of country A is gaining strength while that of country B is falling into recession, it is unwise to short country A, or to go long country B, no matter what the rules indicate.

These rules work well under most market conditions, but must be adjusted according to unusual conditions, the effects of which cannot be quantified, so cannot be included in a set of simple rules.


Knowing when conditions are normal, or extreme, must be learned through careful study over time.


This is why it's important to always trade small, to limit your loses, and to be patient, carefully observing the market until you have the experience and knowledge to know when to follow the rules, and when to override them."


and someone is still shorting the USD and going long the EUR because of the rules, you could just tell them to reread page 1!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #8,445
  • Apr 10, 2012 6:41am Apr 10, 2012 6:41am
Quoting Ever E. Man
Your knowledge makes me wish I understood the market better.

It seems to me that your excellent advice is a good example of a problem with all "simple" systems, especially for new traders.

If you had a disclaimer on Page 1 that says something like this:

"No set of rules will work all the time, and a firm knowledge of market conditions gained through long experience and careful observation is necessary to know when the rules should, and should not, be overridden.

[color=black][font=Verdana][i]For...
That is a good recommendation. I will include it. Still, I would hope traders would understand that a system has to be placed in context of what is happening in the world. It is a duty of every Forex trader to study and master macroeconomic conditions. The Extreme TMA system is excellent in normal, ranging markets, however, in strong trending and volatile markets where repricing of a currency is taking place, great care should always be taken of never trading countertrend in the longer term time frames (D1 as defined by the 200 MA and W1 by the Coral).
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,446
  • Edited 7:00am Apr 10, 2012 6:49am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting iulli
Please research how the casinos are making money and how much.

This thread gives you a good example of finding an edge. Now find a way of not using the recovery and still be profitable and... voila.. you found the holy grail.
No offense, but you must be freaking kidding me!

You talk about Forex amateurs and Forex professionals (and it sounds like you think you're a Forex professional but we all are amateurs), you say that you know how to make millions on Forex with only 50-52% winnings (I suppose you do know about spreads, commissions, swaps and taxes, do you?), and you say everybody knows that it is true, I ask you to give some examples and you send me to the Casinos?

Is it the professional way to make money on Forex? Give me a break, will you?

P.S. Thank you for explaining how to find The Holy Grail. As far as I understand, you already found yours, that's why you're willing to share. I just don't understand: if you're a professional and found your Holy Grail, how come that your Trade Explorer shows that you lost 46% in just 3 months? Oh, I understand, you traded your "Casino" system...
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #8,447
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:03am Apr 10, 2012 7:03am
Quoting Alorente
I use to trade the first signal for years because I was impatient of character. I have worked on that the past few years and I now wait for the test.
Great insight. Thank you.
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #8,448
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:04am Apr 10, 2012 7:04am
Quoting Alorente
... Still, I would hope traders would understand that a system has to be placed in context of what is happening in the world. It is a duty of every Forex trader to study and master macroeconomic conditions...
As usual, I couldn't agree more! It took me a long time to figure it all out though. Didn't you say the same?

I never intended to suggest that anyone was intentionally misleading, as I'm sure that's not the case.

90%+ of new traders lose money, just like we did. We all just wanted to follow the rules. That's all we could figure out, I think!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #8,449
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:07am Apr 10, 2012 7:07am
@everybody
Do you place order or wait other signal ?
Below picture (Lack of rule 4 , price in between band not below band)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4-10-2012 7-05-50 PM.png Size: 50 KB
Share and Receive
  • #8,450
  • Apr 10, 2012 7:12am Apr 10, 2012 7:12am
Quoting iulli
So we want to be in the game with bigger lots, not need to stay for days anymore in the market just take quick our losses and winners, of course our winners being more often than loosers. That is how you make money with minimum risk of ruin, and not blowing your account.
Yes, sure! Don't you understand that bigger lots (with the same balance)mean bigger risk??? If it is 10K most people would trade 1 lot. How many lots would you trade?


Quoting iulli
99% or whatever procent of people lose is because they have no edge, or the edge is too small and not covering the spread.
The edge doesn't cover the spread? How do you define "the edge"?


Quoting iulli
Yes I am an amateur in trading. I am still learning.
iulli, if you're an amateur and still learning, please stop teaching people how to trade professionally (especially when these people are much more experienced than you are).
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #8,451
  • Apr 10, 2012 8:58am Apr 10, 2012 8:58am
So if I understand you correctly, placing a 200 simple MA on a D1 chart will let us know to only sell when price is below the MA and buy when price is above the MA. We can use this knowledge to trade the M15 chart.

Also for the next few months you think buying any Eur pair and selling any Usd pair is not a good idea.

You also think the Jpy is going to fall.

Did I get any of those 3 points wrong?
  • #8,452
  • Apr 10, 2012 9:25am Apr 10, 2012 9:25am
Quoting normtold
So if I understand you correctly, placing a 200 simple MA on a D1 chart will let us know to only sell when price is below the MA and buy when price is above the MA. We can use this knowledge to trade the M15 chart.

Also for the next few months you think buying any Eur pair and selling any Usd pair is not a good idea.

You also think the Jpy is going to fall.

Did I get any of those 3 points wrong?
Those rules go into effect when certain news stories hit. For example AL gave a heads up on the interest rate Spain will pay to borrow money. When it hits a certain point Spain wont be able to afford the loans or rollovers and that will greatly affect the Euro. At what specific point those stories hit is anyone's guess but I dont think they are that far away. Until then you can buy into Euro pairs but when the fundamentals take over set up your sells and let them ride. Indicators are not very good during a strong fundamental dominating the market.
  • #8,453
  • Apr 10, 2012 9:33am Apr 10, 2012 9:33am
Quoting normtold
So if I understand you correctly, placing a 200 simple MA on a D1 chart will let us know to only sell when price is below the MA and buy when price is above the MA. We can use this knowledge to trade the M15 chart.

Also for the next few months you think buying any Eur pair and selling any Usd pair is not a good idea.

You also think the Jpy is going to fall.

Did I get any of those 3 points wrong?
Might help to temper any solid forecasts with the disclaimer in #8444.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #8,454
  • Apr 10, 2012 9:43am Apr 10, 2012 9:43am
Next stop, sub 30.
2991 has very large PUT open interest.
Breaking that level will be interesting to say the least.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD4-10-12.jpg Size: 230 KB
  • #8,455
  • Edited 10:15am Apr 10, 2012 9:59am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting normtold
So if I understand you correctly, placing a 200 simple MA on a D1 chart will let us know to only sell when price is below the MA and buy when price is above the MA. We can use this knowledge to trade the M15 chart.

Also for the next few months you think buying any Eur pair and selling any Usd pair is not a good idea.

You also think the Jpy is going to fall.

Did I get any of those 3 points wrong?
1- Not exactly. The direction of the 200 MA will tell you. If the direction is clearly down, going long should be done only with the utmost care. I donīt do it at all because overall my results counter trend have been break even at best.

2- I certainly will do neither.

3- Short term, I still think it will still climb a bit more, but longer term I think it will fall to 110 to 120.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,456
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:04am Apr 10, 2012 10:04am
Carl, please may I ask... what exactly does the put interest level mean? the price level - is it when puts become in the money, or what?

Volume of course is self-explanatory.

Please excuse my ignorance
  • #8,457
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:17am Apr 10, 2012 10:17am
Spanish Bonds rate at the high of the day (5.99%). On the edge of the 6% cliff.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,458
  • Edited 10:36am Apr 10, 2012 10:25am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting Ever E. Man
Might help to temper any solid forecasts with the disclaimer in #8444.
Ever, disclaimers are only good to avoid lawsuits. When you reach a conclusion after careful analysis of the facts, you should stand behind that conclusion 100%. Always being extremely careful and not putting all your eggs in one or two baskets but avoiding the other side.

It is important to have the courage to follow your convictions. That breeds confidence, which is essential to trading.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #8,459
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:26am Apr 10, 2012 10:26am
Quoting Alorente
...great care should always be taken of never trading countertrend in the longer term time frames (D1 as defined by the 200 MA and W1 by the Coral).
Hi Al,

do you mean the 200MA and Coral on a M15 chart?
Must it not be the other way round, D1 trend from the Coral and W1 trend from the 200MA?
  • #8,460
  • Apr 10, 2012 10:27am Apr 10, 2012 10:27am
Quoting Jikkie
Carl, please may I ask... what exactly does the put interest level mean? the price level - is it when puts become in the money, or what?

Volume of course is self-explanatory.

Please excuse my ignorance
Put open interest - How many Put Contracts, promise to sell at a specified price, are open. The prices you see in my chart is where the put options would be a break-even to the writer.

We don't know what the motivation is of the writers of these contracts. Usually, if the writers are not hedgers, they believe price will stay above the level that they write. The options would then expire worthless and the writers get to keep all the premium received by the buyers.

Buyers want price to go down, so they can either sell the options for more, or exercise the contract to sell the underlying at the contract price, after buying the underlying for less.

Logically speaking, these options are written and held by the big boys. So their motivations are profit oriented, and most probably hedging activities. So, they can act as triggers to allow them to move money at a specified price.
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