Fail Better

Nice UCHF trade /

A nice level that goes back a long way.

Yep, waiting on that NJ...

Anyone else have anything going into tonight/tomorrow?

I'll get a couple hours to review charts in a few hours...

Couple YEN levels that didn't play out as expected this week...it's good to post the losers as well as well as the winners.

I took a full loss on UJ, wasn't around to play GJ.

Standard FTB trades.

Silver and the EJ trades this week worked nicely, one of each.

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...SD06042012.jpg

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...PY07042012.jpg

I think USDJPY is very difficult to trade at the moment, sorry you took a whack on it Sam.

hey Sam,
imo from ur uj and gj charts, those are not exactly (RR) rounded retest, more of butt kiss or initial break & retest if u may.
best RR setup is when price runs far away from our level and then makes a rounded return.
not saying they cant be played but they are more tricky than the rounded retest Tom talks about.
anyways hope that helped a bit, happy easter holidays to u guys

I took 6 trades this week. A relatively large number for me. In general I would say I am pleased with the setups that I took. However, I am only genuinely happy with the way I executed 1 of the 6.

1. EUR/USD gap, Sunday 1 April

The Sunday night gap trade. There was a 20 pip gap this week which I entered on the open with a 40 pip stop. The gap closed within a few hours.

WIN - 0.5 R
Verdict - Good trade

2. Crude - sell on the rounded retest at 1.0429, Monday 2 April

I posted on this at length earlier in the week. I got stopped out. Having had time to reflect, I would take this setup again. It was a strong level with lots of recent support and space before the retest. I realised that the minimum bet size combined with my stop meant that I could only take the trade by taking twice my normal risk. At that point I should have stood aside but I was scared of missing out on a great trade, convinced it would come good and took it.

LOSS - 2R
Verdict - good setup, but should have stood aside as there was no way to trade it within my required risk parameters


3. AUD/USD - SFP long at 1.0307, Tuesday 3 April

This SFP appeared after a big bearish candle when the FOMC minutes were released. I targeted 1.0351 but price could only make it halfway there before reversing. With hindsight I can see there was a minor level at 1.0337 which was at the limit of the move - if this had been my FTA it would have worked out beautifully, but I still think my original target was reasonable. I exited at 1.0319 when it became clear that it wasn't going to continue upwards. The speed of the previous down movement also influenced me here. I am unhappy with my execution because I entered the market 10 minute before the candle printed, in order to get a bigger entry - at that point, it had broken the swing low and was retracing quickly. I thought it was going to continue upwards and if I waited until the close my stop would be too big. In those final 10 minutes price then went back down, broke the previous low and 1 minute before close looked like it was no longer going to be an SFP. In the final minute it retraced up again and closed 3 pips above the previous swing low. Had I waited my entry would have been 10 pips later.

BREAKEVEN (to be precise, profit of 3 pips)
Verdict - good setup and decent trade. Possibly could have targeted closer level, but not a bad decision. Where I did go wrong was jumping the gun and entering before the candle had finished printing. I did this because i was scared I would not get a good enough entry and did not want to miss out. I should have waited and if it had retraced too far, I should have stood aside.

4 - USD/CAD - rounded retest short at 0.9949, Wednesday 4 April

A decent level to short but price didn't think so. It continued to 0.9960, then came back to the level. But it couldn't make it through. When it broke 0.9960 I exited as it meant that it was finding support at this level rather than resistance. Exited for 0.6R. So far so good. Pat on the back. While walking to a meeting I checked the current price on my phone and saw that it was almost back at the level. Maybe I was wrong to get out prematurely. The meeting was about to start, I had seconds to decide. I don't want to take a losing trade if it is going to go in my favour. I should get back in. If I get back in now I actually get a better entry by three pips. So I went short again at 0.9952. I got stopped out for almost 1R.

LOSS - 1.5R
Verdict - decent setup and initially managed it well by getting out at the first warning signs for a smaller loss. This was undone by my panic at the thought of missing out again and a foolish decision to re-enter.

5 - EUR/USD - rounded retest long at 1.3119, Wednesday 4 April

I'd had a pending order in on this one since it broke through the level several weeks ago. It reacted well off the level. When I placed the order I put a take profit limit order in at 1.3148. When I look back now I do not know why I did this. I should have been targeting 1.3140. Had I done so I would have taken full profit on the following bar. When I first saw a chart after it had triggered, I saw that the second bar after I entered had retraced back towards the level after missing my target by 2 pips. This worried me that it might have made its high and this caused me to exit when the price got back to 1.3136. It did finally get back to 40 the same hour and 48 3 hours later.

WIN - 1R

Verdict - Decent setup, should have set t/p order 8 pips lower in which case I would have taken 1.25R. Given the mistake I managed my exit reasonably well in the circumstances.

6. USD/CHF - rounded retest long at 0.9178, Friday 6 April

I think this was a nice level for a retest. I had decided not to trade on Good Friday. I believe that liquidity would have been much thinner on a day which most of the western world has as a holiday and so price would be prone to acting differently than it otherwise would. So I deliberately decided to take the day off and not trade that day.

Of course that means that I should not only have not actively traded, but also should have cancelled all of my pending orders in case they got triggered that day. I did not, and this order triggered. I got stopped out.

LOSS - 1R
Verdict - decent setup but should have cancelled my order and put it back on again next week if it didn't invalidate in the meantime. This did cross my mind but didn't give it much thought and ignored it. Again I think in the back of my mind I was thinking "I won't cancel it in case it triggers - I don't want to miss out"


TOTAL FOR THE WEEK - Loss of 3R

On reflection I think the mantra "I don't want to miss out" caused bad decisions on all 3 of my losing trades last week.

 

1. The increased position size on Crude,
2. Getting back in the USD/CAD trade
3. Not cancelling the USD/CHF order

THIS IS A PSYCHOLOGICAL ISSUE I CLEARLY NEED TO WORK ON

But I said at the begining of the last post that I was happy with all of the setups that I took, it was just my execution that was lacking.

By my calculations if I had managed (or not taken) all of those trades in the way that I should have done, and was capable of doing I would have ended up as follows

1. EUR/USD Gap - +0.5R (no change)
2. Crude - - 1R (reduced position size)
3. AUD/USD - B/E (no change)
4. USD/CAD - -0.6R (not re-entered market)
5. EUR/USD - +1.25R (set t/p order in right place)
6. EUR/CHF N/A (would not have taken)

TOTAL = + 0.15R

Obviously this would have been much better, but hardly groundbreaking. So was I right about the setups all being good ones?

I'd be grateful for any feedback any of you guys can kindly offer.

I realised I should have posted some charts to illustrate. Here are:

Trade 3 - AUD/USD SFP



Trade 4 - USD/CAD retest



Trade 5 - EUR/USD retest

Sam, for what it's worth I agree with Squeezy about the USD/JPY trade. I passed on it because it never managed to break properly clear for the level and create space. Only one hourly bar was entirely below the level and even that only got 3 pips away from it. I tend to look for the break to sustain itself for several bars and get right away from it, creating some space between price and the level.

Thanks for the feedback guys, still solid trades in my book.

GL this week.

Looking for EUR/USD to break the green line/level up for a R/R, there was a R/R when price broke down previoiusly but i don't think price is going to hold that long beneath it, its also reached a pretty strong D1 Support level to, lets see what happens its been a pretty slow day so far today in the UK i suspect its because its Bank Holiday and Easter Weekend!

Nice trade. Although perhaps worth noting that it was a 16 pip gap on my FxPro feed.

You should have passed on this. I was worried enough about this setup that I actually went down to half size for it so you certainly didn't want to be doubling up. As price hit the 104.29 it was forming a BUOB on the D1, fairly late in the session.

Appallingly bad entry. The entire setup depends on the formation of the bar and you are entering before the bar has even formed. Also, you should have been out at 1.0336 here which was a formidable FTA. I think playing for 51's was too optimistic.

As you have realised, this was a good exit that was ruined by a panicked re-entry.

Not sure what happened here. The target should have been 41 - 43's. Not sure why you were waiting up at 48's...

You entered long into a H1 BEOB. Also, in thinner markets, movements can be exaggerated. Your stop was very tight, no? It broke the level by 18 pips before violently reversing...

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...FP07042012.jpg

I've been trying out SFP trading on the 4hr chart of USDCAD, here's the last 2 months of trades to show you what I mean.

I don't want to go off on a tangent from the core of this thread, I know no ones looking at a 4hr UC chart but I thought it might be of interest .

UC is the bronco of currencies, it's been ranging quite fiercely recently, ideal for swing failures.

Wizard

Thank you for your feedback once more. It is reassuring to know that my own analysis of my own cock-ups is not a million miles from yours.

It is also reassuring that (and i am reading between the lines here) most of your comments were about my execution rather than choice of setup. A couple of months ago I was choosing bad setups, so although I still have a long way to go, I do feel that I am making progress.

Thanks again.

Matt

This is my first chart posted here. I didn't take this trade at the time as I thought there was a spider up to it. Now I am reconsidering thinking it may have been a decent trade. 3rd touch after the level was broken, and daily in a range. Is my FTA too conservative? I thought it was too close to entry to take also. Any comments welcome!

Nice zoomie, I took the same. The s&p was trying to fill a large gap at the same time as well, inverse correlation.

I had fta @ 9977 but hung on until 68 before I was stopped.

Good first chart imo, just be careful in cad.

I would like to wish this thread a slightly belated Happy First Birthday!

I didn't discover it until it was already 5 months old but since then it has been a constant companion and guide.

Many thanks to the Wizard and all who post on here.

Not the best R/R i have to admit, lack of space and time once it broke the green line/level and price hasnt held up above the level but i am still adament that price is not going to stay down below the green line for long. Only time will tell, i took R/R (at the arrow) anyway as my contention was it was a strong level and got out with +10 pips because it was very late at night and i needed some sleep, in hindsight i could have had a little bit more out of the position.

Great thread, thanks wiz and frequent posters.

Started reading a few days ago, on post 2641 atm. Haven't joined the webinars yet and probably won't have the opportunity as my time zone gmt+8 makes that a bit late.

Learned a lot so far, thought I would post a chart to see what you guys think.

Comments appreciated.

Cable Daily.