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Are you a consistently profitable trader?

  • #301
  • Apr 6, 2012 6:01pm Apr 6, 2012 6:01pm
I am a profitable trader, but I don't live off from trading the forex market. I used to play the 'sucker's game' and 'daytrade' everyday. I used to follow the news, every headline, etc. Sometimes you just have to sit back and read the pattern.

I have been trading very small lots, and my timeframe has shifted from daily to weekly and monthly charts. I don't follow the news on a daily basis, i don't place an order often. I respect the market, and the market respects me.
  • #302
  • Edited Apr 7, 2012 6:55am Apr 6, 2012 6:19pm | Edited Apr 7, 2012 6:55am
Quoting Emanuel
I am a profitable trader, but I don't live off from trading the forex market. I used to play the 'sucker's game' and 'daytrade' everyday. I used to follow the news, every headline, etc. Sometimes you just have to sit back and read the pattern.

I have been trading very small lots, and my timeframe has shifted from daily to weekly and monthly charts. I don't follow the news on a daily basis, i don't place an order often. I respect the market, and the market respects me.
I like that Emanuel...

I don't follow the news on a daily basis, i don't place an order often. I respect the market, and the market respects me.

Respecting the market will get a trader paid.

I can't really call daytrading a "sucker's game"...for some it's a business. Most businesses open daily, even on weekends. I don't see trading as being any different.

Glad you are profitable .


I used to follow the news, every headline, etc. Sometimes you just have to sit back and read the pattern.

That might have been a bit much I agree. Yes, sometimes the chart is more than enough.


I have been trading very small lots, and my timeframe has shifted from daily to weekly and monthly charts.

I'd like to ask, how do you handle the fluctuations in your P/L when trading those longer time-frames? How often do you check you trades?


Thanks for posting,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #303
  • Apr 7, 2012 4:15pm Apr 7, 2012 4:15pm
I think I am one - since July 15, 2011 have entered more than 700 trades (frankly, about half of them live, but anyway) - every single one closed with
profit (never use stoploss).
  • #304
  • Edited 3:40pm Apr 8, 2012 3:55am | Edited 3:40pm
Quoting DedMatvey
I think I am one - since July 15, 2011 have entered more than 700 trades (frankly, about half of them live, but anyway) - every single one closed with
profit (never use stoploss).
I would definitely agree that you are profitable, although the definition for the poll is three consecutive months trading Live (that might have been in the mix for you too).

...never use stoploss: good for you ....

According to your profile you are using your system: Bravo . Are you auto-trading in any way, not that it is a negative...just asking. Are you position trading, scalping or swing trading? Lots more can be asked, but I'm glad that at the end of the month you're adding $$$.

Congrats! Impressive Win/Loss ratio. I am sure some would argue that a win/loss ratio is not the most telling statistic, but yours is a very good one nonetheless (despite their arguments).

Thanks for taking the time to share your results,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #305
  • Apr 8, 2012 6:02am Apr 8, 2012 6:02am
Quoting FX4Newbies
I would definitely agree that you are profitable, although the definition for the poll is three consecutive months trading Live (that might have been in the mix for you too).

...never use stoploss: good for you ....

According to your profile you are using your system: Bravo . Are you auto-trading in any way, not that it is a negative...just asking. Are you position trading, scalping or swing trading? Lots more can be asked, but I'm glad that at the end of the month you're adding $$$.

Congrats!...
Thanks for taking YOUR time to think a little, see my profile and write this post.
In spite of the fact that I can very well feel almost unhidden sarcasm in what you say, here is:
1. isn't more than three consecutive months a bit better than three sharp?
what's wrong about it?
2. about "never use stoploss" - please take some of your time to visit Forums > Trading Systems > No SL No Leverage Strategy - I think it is very interesting over there;
3. about "auto-trading, position trading, scalping or swing trading" - none, I myself would call it ordinary rational or simply logical, i,e. everything I use in
trading has been taken from everyday life and is very simple compared to all
highly scientific strategies (for example, the chart I use consists of just one bar);
4. about "Lots more can be asked" - you are welcome with your questions, but I will only answer them if I can see they are based on your interest, not
your sarcasm;
5. about "win/loss ratio is not the most telling statistic" - I would like to know
what is.
Another thanks for taking the time to read this.
  • #306
  • Apr 8, 2012 6:08am Apr 8, 2012 6:08am
hi fxnewbies,

so what do you think of your polls results so far,do you think there representive of the ff community ?
  • #307
  • Edited 3:46pm Apr 8, 2012 6:36am | Edited 3:46pm
Quoting mister me
hi fxnewbies,

so what do you think of your polls results so far,do you think there representive of the ff community ?
If I believe all the voters are being honest, and I have no reason to distrust them, I have to believe it is the truth for the FF community. Maybe the cream of the crop of traders are FF members .

Who knows...trust until you have reason not to. How would one have reason not to in such a poll...very difficult I think. (I know the points made earlier that demonstrated possible reasons why people avoid giving truthful answers, but I still have to trust) as there is no way to know for sure either way. So, I will just go with what was given as many other factors cannot be accounted for in such a simple poll like, "How long has the voter been trading?"

In a similar manner, when traders apply for a live account, the FCM or retail broker is not responsible for verifying whether all of the info given on the application is true before opening an account (and that is actually in the regulations with the NFA). However, if something should come up, then things might change and a full verification process might be initiated.

So, I suppose I will follow that precedent here.

I have noticed though that the percentage of "consistently profitable" traders has come down some with an increase in the percentage of those who have not been. We've got lots of time. Let's see how the dust settles. And maybe, that 95% losing statistic might be true of new accounts.

We'll see what we get as we move along.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #308
  • Edited 3:50pm Apr 8, 2012 10:53am | Edited 3:50pm
Quoting DedMatvey
Thanks for taking YOUR time to think a little, see my profile and write this post.
In spite of the fact that I can very well feel almost unhidden sarcasm in what you say, here is:
1. isn't more than three consecutive months a bit better than three sharp?
what's wrong about it?
2. about "never use stoploss" - please take some of your time to visit Forums > Trading Systems > No SL No Leverage Strategy - I think it is very interesting over there;
3. about "auto-trading, position trading, scalping or swing trading" - none, I myself would...
Hello again DedMatvey,

Read your post a few times as I was really surprised by your thought that I was being sarcastic in some way. My apologies. Honestly, I am not sure what I said that caused it. If it was my comment about "three consecutive months" that was because of previous discussions/mini-debates about being 'consistently profitable'. Just trying to keep the entire framework of the discussions intact.

1. isn't more than three consecutive months a bit better than three sharp?
what's wrong about it?

Four consecutively profitable months is better than three any day! I wasn't sure your "three or more than three months" happened consecutively: July to March (8 months, half of the trades being on demo...4 consecutive months live?). Just didn't know how they actually played out. Maybe I missed that point.


2. about "never use stoploss" - please take some of your time to visit Forums > Trading Systems > No SL No Leverage Strategy - I think it is very interesting over there;

I will. I am not a fan of stops so it will be interesting to read what's going on over there...thanks.


3. about "auto-trading, position trading, scalping or swing trading" - none, I myself would call it ordinary rational or simply logical, i,e. everything I use in trading has been taken from everyday life and is very simple compared to all highly scientific strategies (for example, the chart I use consists of just one bar);

None . You got my interest there for sure (see the underlined). Hope you'll be inclined to share some more. Your use of a chart that consists of just one bar sounds like a very unique approach. Not my habit to ask people details about their system as I think it is a confidential matter, but, whatever you'd like to share, please feel free.


4. about "Lots more can be asked" - you are welcome with your questions, but I will only answer them if I can see they are based on your interest, not your sarcasm;

Would definitely like to know about your position-sizing approach. No sarcasm has ever been intended. Sorry if something came across that way.


5. about "win/loss ratio is not the most telling statistic" - I would like to know what is.

I believe it was earlier in the thread to some extent (or maybe another thread) someone made a comment about the win/loss ratio. Maybe for some the % Return on Equity (or Return on Investment). Others may be concerned about the Drawdown while in the trade. For others, the length of time in the trade is a biggie as more time = more potential risk.


Another thanks for taking the time to read this.

Most welcome .

EDIT: Just dropped by the thread you mentioned. Looks interesting indeed. Nacho has a good start I think given what he posted in his opening post, though one or two things (which I commented on there) I think could be worked on some more. Whatever you'd like to share, I'm sure many of us would be keen to learn.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #309
  • Apr 8, 2012 11:05am Apr 8, 2012 11:05am
Quoting FX4Newbies
I am not a fan of stops
I would rather be right than use stops,
and use stops than lose my account.
I'm just not right enough yet.
  • #310
  • Apr 8, 2012 11:11am Apr 8, 2012 11:11am
Quoting ha-pattern
I would rather be right than use stops,
and use stops than lose my account.
I'm just not right enough yet.
Ha-Pattern,

Use what you need to in order to stay in the game until you are right more than enough times.

FX4

P.S. I'm thinking your method might need tweaking somewhere.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #311
  • Apr 9, 2012 4:27am Apr 9, 2012 4:27am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hello again DedMatvey,

Read your post a few times as I was really surprised by your thought that I was being sarcastic in some way. My apologies. Honestly, I am not sure what I said that caused it. If it was my comment about "three consecutive months" that was because of previous discussions/mini-debates about being 'consistently profitable'. Just trying to keep the entire framework of the discussions intact.

1. isn't more than three consecutive months a bit better than three sharp?
what's wrong about it?...
Hi FX4Newbies,
Sarcasm subject closed, please have my sorry, too.
Real business only: the main principle of trading is BUY LOW/SELL HIGH, isn't it?
I put it as a cornerstone in my philosophy of FX trading, and hence all the rest.
Roughly, everything looks like this: I only trade GROUPS of currency pairs instead of a single pair (the number of currency pairs in a group can vary from 2 to 8). For this, I use a bar chart consisting of just one bar/line, which depicts (in US dollars) the history of a given group price (1995-today) and what/where the price is at the moment. Sometimes I can even see record lows/highs (four of them occurred for this week trading, and I offered those to Nacho but he didn't agree to accept), rather often the price shown is very close to the latter. I consider both cases a good opportunity to BUY LOW/SELL HIGH(=RISK MINIMUMxPROFIT GOOD).

You have two attached files in this post as an example of my one bar chart
to compare a standard bar for EUR/USD to a bar showing a group of mine:
1. inside the .ZIP you'll find .vts - opens with Excel (it is SSuite Office file)
2. if you cannot open .vts with Excel, the other one shows the same.

I look forward to hearing from you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-04-09_120207.png Size: 29 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Example.zip   1 KB | 262 downloads
  • #312
  • Edited 11:26am Apr 9, 2012 6:04am | Edited 11:26am
Quoting DedMatvey
Hi FX4Newbies,
Sarcasm subject closed, please have my sorry, too.
Real business only: the main principle of trading is BUY LOW/SELL HIGH, isn't it?
I put it as a cornerstone in my philosophy of FX trading, and hence all the rest.
Roughly, everything looks like this: I only trade GROUPS of currency pairs instead of a single pair (the number of currency pairs in a group can vary from 2 to 8). For this, I use a bar chart consisting of just one bar/line, which depicts (in US dollars) the history of a given group price (1995-today) and what/where the...
Hello again DedMatvey,

Thanks for sharing. No probs on the sarcasm discussion .

About your approach: very novel to me.

Yes...buy low/sell high is the bottom line concept. Works good every time for traders....

So,

1. How do you decide which pairs to put into the bar?

2. Do you feed data from the charts into this bar in Excel?

3. Do you trade all pairs simultaneously or in quick succession?

4. On your attached file, I see light blue next to Cad/Jpy, Eur-Aud, Gbp-Jpy, Are those new lows? Please explain your spreadsheet a little more if you don't mind. Thanks.

5. How did you arrive at 377 25 March, 2012?

6. Do you follow fundamentals?

I'm sure I'll have more questions.

FX4

P.S. Could not open it in Excel.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #313
  • Apr 9, 2012 12:48pm Apr 9, 2012 12:48pm
Quoting PhilipK
Nice thread. The approach that ultramoe uses is very interesting. I was hoping that he/she can speak to the fact that that stop can sometimes be substantially more than 20 pips.

It was stated that upon being stopped out out a trade in the opposite direction would be taken.

that trade would not bring you to breakeven on the day if the stop was greater than 20.

ultramoe, you don't target the same # pips lost on the next trade?, do you?

thanks

Ultramoe MIA - Regardless, I 'll add this approach to the handful I'd like to test on simulator
  • #314
  • Apr 9, 2012 1:01pm Apr 9, 2012 1:01pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hello again DedMatvey,

Thanks for sharing. No probs on the sarcasm discussion .

About your approach: very novel to me.

Yes...buy low/sell high is the bottom line concept. Works good every time for traders....

So,

1. How do you decide which pairs to put into the bar?

2. Do you feed data from the charts into this bar in Excel?

3. Do you trade all pairs simultaneously or in quick succession?

4. On your attached file, I see light blue next to Cad/Jpy, Eur-Aud, Gbp-Jpy, Are those new lows? Please explain your...
Hi FX4Newbies,
First you may see <No SL No Leverage Strategy - working so far> #251
1. I don't put any pairs into the bar - it is a final product of what I have in the tables.
2. No, I don't use standard charts at all.
3. No answer to this right now, I hope we'll come back here later.
4. Only red color in my bars shows the distance to high/low. It reads in the following way: 23 September, 2011 the group showed 5 dollars to its low/25 March, 2012 it showed 377 dollars to its low. Light blue mean the distance covered between the two dates. Sorry, I don't know what spreadsheet is. So pls be the first to explain.
5. = 4.
6. No, only very simple arithmetics based on the statistics collected.
P.S. Unfortunately, I don't have MS Office in my PC, I use SSuite Office portable.
  • #315
  • Edited 2:29pm Apr 9, 2012 2:06pm | Edited 2:29pm
Quoting PhilipK
Ultramoe MIA - Regardless, I 'll add this approach to the handful I'd like to test on simulator
Hello PhilipK,

Perhaps Ultramoe did not see your post or perhaps it has already been answered:

What I do to Break-Even on the day and not have a losing day. I just Reverse the trade and go short and cover my loss.

90% of the time It's a 20pip winning trade.
5-10% of the time it will be a Break-Even trade on reversals.
1%-4% of the time I will lose on a trade, avg loss is around 25-50pips.

I am guessing that they would recover the loss, which, in some cases, may go beyond the 20 pips if necessary. A loss might actually be incurred if upon reversal, price action does not go far enough to recover the loss. I do not believe it is part of their strategy to keep trading until all is recovered.

Trade results.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #316
  • Apr 9, 2012 3:56pm Apr 9, 2012 3:56pm
Quoting DedMatvey
Hi FX4Newbies,
First you may see <No SL No Leverage Strategy - working so far> #251
1. I don't put any pairs into the bar - it is a final product of what I have in the tables.
2. No, I don't use standard charts at all.
3. No answer to this right now, I hope we'll come back here later.
4. Only red color in my bars shows the distance to high/low. It reads in the following way: 23 September, 2011 the group showed 5 dollars to its low/25 March, 2012 it showed 377 dollars to its low. Light blue mean the distance covered between the two dates. Sorry,...
Will check this post shortly.

First you may see <No SL No Leverage Strategy - working so far> #251

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #317
  • Edited Apr 10, 2012 5:35am Apr 9, 2012 5:18pm | Edited Apr 10, 2012 5:35am
Quoting DedMatvey
Hi FX4Newbies,
First you may see <No SL No Leverage Strategy - working so far> #251
1. I don't put any pairs into the bar - it is a final product of what I have in the tables.
2. No, I don't use standard charts at all.
3. No answer to this right now, I hope we'll come back here later.
4. Only red color in my bars shows the distance to high/low. It reads in the following way: 23 September, 2011 the group showed 5 dollars to its low/25 March, 2012 it showed 377 dollars to its low. Light blue mean the distance covered between the two dates. Sorry,...
Okay DedMatvey,

From Post 251 of the other thread, I saw that you made mention of a table, a worksheet of some kind that you use to evaluate the prospective pairs.

4. A spreadsheet is what Excel generates. A "form" or table where one can input data, and program the cells to do calculations based on the inputs from other cells.

Understand a little better how to read your chart based on the coloured parts of the bars. It seems as though your table is the basis for everything you do, which is a proprietary part of your method.

I am sure it works well for you based on your results. Will be open to review whatever you are comfortable sharing.

By the way, what is the average length of time in a trade? Also, what kind of floating drawdowns do you normally experience?

Regards,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #318
  • Edited 3:02pm Apr 10, 2012 2:11pm | Edited 3:02pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Okay DedMatvey,

From Post 251 of the other thread, I saw that you made mention of a table, a worksheet of some kind that you use to evaluate the prospective pairs.

4. A spreadsheet is what Excel generates. A "form" or table where one can input data, and program the cells to do calculations based on the inputs from other cells.

Understand a little better how to read your chart based on the coloured parts of the bars. It seems as though your table is the basis for everything you do, which is a proprietary part of your method.

I am...
Hi FX4Newbies,
I am sorry about the delay with my reply.
Thank you for the explanation what a worksheet is, I call it a microprogram
to myself, and yes I use a couple of them to make calculations needed.
Yes, the table is everything.
I am open to share very much with my friends and supporters in the course
of working together. Some people from that other thread suggested that we
set a group of traders to try a no-SL strategy on individual demo accounts
for one month under my guidance, I am inviting you to join in. I hope that in the course of that demo period many things will become understandable and clear by themselves.
About the time factor though - while everything else is based on statistics, can be easily calculated and therefore is under control, time is not. But it is
not a problem, either. I cannot tell you exactly what the average is because
the trades can be closed within minutes, hours, days, etc. If you mean months, yes I have now one and the same group/trade which I opened back in March on two different accounts, but this does not have any negative affect on my general course of work at all - very small minus, the swap is catching up, it's just a matter of principle - to be honest with yourself about EVERY trade with profit.
Floating drawdowns - again, it depends and it varies, but in MT4 detailed statements it usually shows 5% to 8% (I don't know how they calculate it), with the open trades I always try to keep minus below 20%.

Regards,
  • #319
  • Edited 7:05pm Apr 10, 2012 3:42pm | Edited 7:05pm
Quoting DedMatvey
Hi FX4Newbies,
I am sorry about the delay with my reply.
Thank you for the explanation what a worksheet is, I call it a microprogram
to myself, and yes I use a couple of them to make calculations needed.
Yes, the table is everything.
I am open to share very much with my friends and supporters in the course
of working together. Some people from that other thread suggested that we
set a group of traders to try a no-SL strategy on individual demo accounts
for one month under my guidance, I am inviting you to join in. I hope that in the course of that...
Thanks for the reply.

Your Demo Account strategy tester sounds interesting for 30 days. I would be interested but I really need to know what kind of time commitments may be necessary as I don't want to sign up for what I don't have the time for right now.

Please send me a PM with more details.

Thanks,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #320
  • Apr 11, 2012 1:04pm Apr 11, 2012 1:04pm
Please send me a PM with more details.
FX4[/quote]

Hi FX4,
When trying to send you a PM I can only see this:

FX4Newbies has chosen not to receive private messages or may not be allowed to receive private messages. Therefore you may not send your message to him/her.

If you are trying to send this message to multiple recipients, remove FX4Newbies from the recipient list and send the message again.

Can you send a PM to me with some other details where I can send my PM?

Regards,
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