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AUD/USD

  • #42,741
  • Apr 5, 2012 4:31am Apr 5, 2012 4:31am
Quoting doblece



Possible... and coincides with the middle pitchfork and my previous calculations (around 1.0200).

However we could be having another AB=CD in formation reaching for a 161.8% extension of the last downswing = 1.0095.

I would expect at least a further fall to the lower trendline of the descending channel, around 1.0185.


And after? 400+?

Thanks,
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #42,742
  • Apr 5, 2012 4:38am Apr 5, 2012 4:38am
... or either we make an Adam and Eve double bottom bouncing off M5's SMA200 which would be confirmed if price then breaks 1.0293 (seems in the make but anything goes... and about to fail as I write, lol).
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  • #42,743
  • Edited 5:25am Apr 5, 2012 5:01am | Edited 5:25am
Quoting mrbandwidth
And after? 400+?

Thanks,
If price doesn't break today's lows, we could bounce back to about 1.0375/380 (61.8% retracement and top line of the daily falling wedge, and resistance level of december 08 and january 03 highs).

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Resistance at 1.0380 seems tougher than at 1.0440 as it has been tested both sides (S/R) more times.

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However, M5 aedb just failed so I think the 1.0185 and beyond scenario could play directly and we might then continue the free fall until 0.9900/0.9880ish before a return in force of the bulls...

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But... EUR/AUD seems to have still some room to fall until support at around 1.2620 so there might be a chance for some pull back, maybe next week (if the lows aren't taken before the end of the day).

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  • #42,744
  • Apr 5, 2012 5:51am Apr 5, 2012 5:51am
Quoting aqeelaputra
in my view base on daily if price touch 1.0620-90 and stop its good R:R to sell again with tight sl
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  • #42,745
  • Apr 5, 2012 10:48am Apr 5, 2012 10:48am
Quoting doblece
If price doesn't break today's lows, we could bounce back to about 1.0375/380 (61.8% retracement and top line of the daily falling wedge, and resistance level of december 08 and january 03 highs).
Thanks a lot for your detailed analysis!
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #42,746
  • Apr 5, 2012 12:02pm Apr 5, 2012 12:02pm
Quoting Zeroh
Had a big long position last week. Added as price fell and ended up with a large position @480, held nervously over the weekend fortunately price came back and I got out at broke even for a positive couple of pips.

Shorted @530 and now holding shorts.
Took profit for the shorts @375 think on monday on the first move down waited and went long @370 last night when a bottom seems to be formed.
too easy last couple months
  • #42,747
  • Apr 5, 2012 12:09pm Apr 5, 2012 12:09pm
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012...t-your-friend/
  • #42,748
  • Apr 5, 2012 10:13pm Apr 5, 2012 10:13pm
Quoting doblece
... or either we make an Adam and Eve double bottom bouncing off M5's SMA200 which would be confirmed if price then breaks 1.0293 (seems in the make but anything goes... and about to fail as I write, lol).

ahhh, a breath of super fresh air, i see you are a fan of Bulkowski, pro analysis, havent seen anything like that around here in a long time

tape does love Adam and Eve, unless proven otherwise by market of course, but this kind of feels like an impending short squeeze incoming...
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Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #42,749
  • Apr 5, 2012 11:34pm Apr 5, 2012 11:34pm
bears will be killed.
  • #42,750
  • Apr 5, 2012 11:41pm Apr 5, 2012 11:41pm
china story could not bring the aussie below 1.0200 and there are talks about aussie being a new reserve currency.
  • #42,751
  • Apr 6, 2012 3:16am Apr 6, 2012 3:16am
Quoting djambazov84
ahhh, a breath of super fresh air, i see you are a fan of Bulkowski, pro analysis, havent seen anything like that around here in a long time

tape does love Adam and Eve, unless proven otherwise by market of course, but this kind of feels like an impending short squeeze incoming...
Thanks!
Indeed Bulkowski's pattern Encyclopedia is extremely detailed and a very interesting read.

In a few hours we'll see if NFP takes care of the crossroads so we can plan ahead for next week...
  • #42,752
  • Apr 6, 2012 3:16am Apr 6, 2012 3:16am
Quoting Nachiket
china story could not bring the aussie below 1.0200 and there are talks about aussie being a new reserve currency.
Oh Nooooooooooo,The Aussie and the KiWi are in negociation.
But.....it seems that the Russian Roebel is the new safe haven.
After all Putin is back in town. Lmao
  • #42,753
  • Apr 6, 2012 4:09am Apr 6, 2012 4:09am
Quoting Nachiket
china story could not bring the aussie below 1.0200 and there are talks about aussie being a new reserve currency.
Who started this rumour? You??
Cheers, Harry The hardest way to make easy money.
  • #42,754
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:21am Apr 6, 2012 8:21am
Today this is a fuc*ing joke...
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #42,755
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:35am Apr 6, 2012 8:35am
US Non-Farm Payrolls disappoints at plus 120,000. 205,000 was expected.
Unemployment drops to 8.2 from 8.3 http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif
  • #42,756
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:51am Apr 6, 2012 8:51am
Quoting mrbandwidth
Today this is a fuc*ing joke...
u are right... bulll then bear then bull then bear
  • #42,757
  • Apr 6, 2012 8:56am Apr 6, 2012 8:56am
Quoting Nachiket
china story could not bring the aussie below 1.0200 and there are talks about aussie being a new reserve currency.
yes i agree... but to be logically realistic, maybe china want aussie to go 1.0000 then the bull will go from here... just my 2cent opinion.
  • #42,758
  • Apr 6, 2012 1:16pm Apr 6, 2012 1:16pm
Picture Worth Thousand Words

http://img15.hostingpics.net/pics/225608WolfeWave.png
  • #42,759
  • Apr 7, 2012 3:48pm Apr 7, 2012 3:48pm
On the weekly chart we can see the price of AUD/USD has been in a downward channel for the last 8 weeks. Draw this channel. Then using the monthly chart, draw a lower trend line from the low of Oct. 2008 through the low of Oct. 2011 and extend it through the down channel. You can see the lower trend line crosses the channel at about parity. One would expect today's price to continue down and probably bounce at parity. One could go long there with a tight stop just below parity. If price breaks through parity, the next horizontal support is down at about .9875
  • #42,760
  • Apr 7, 2012 6:20pm Apr 7, 2012 6:20pm
up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down, up, down

whats next?

^_^
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