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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #25,501
  • Apr 5, 2012 4:42am Apr 5, 2012 4:42am
Quoting fxhermit
Horror! No I don't mean the world economic crisis. I'm doing a little bragging here. My sweety and I got to hang on set when this flick was being filmed as my son was one of the photographers and a couple of folks in the credits were former students of my wife when she was teaching television and film making a decade or so back. Was great fun to see these young folk just having a blast at what they like to do. Now the flick is on its way to Cannes . Could do well in its catagorie, scary thought .

http://www.fangoria.com/index.php/ho...ailer-a-poster...
Fabulous.

What an interesting day (and proud day) that must have been. I must admit to being a movie buff, horror not being my favourite genre, but I like to tease my girlfriend with the better horror flicks because it's so sexy. (I tend to watch her more than the film)

No, I prefer the thriller, or should I say good quality crime thriller - Fargo and The Usual Suspects spring to mind. I could go on but I might risk boring some of the usual suspects.

On the subject of horror. Real horror. The only Pakistani film to have won an Oscar was a documentary on the disgraceful acid attacks on women which are becoming commonplace in Pakistan. Come on Pakistan? What's going on?

Oh no! Now I've probably ruined someone's morning. Never mind, Chonchy will lighten the mood.
Gone to a better place
  • #25,502
  • Apr 5, 2012 4:54am Apr 5, 2012 4:54am
Finally Eur/Chf dropped to 1.2. Very suddenly, I might add. My Euro shorts gapped down. Sounds a bit rude but you get my meaning. Love it when my shorts gap down...
Gone to a better place
  • #25,503
  • Apr 5, 2012 5:00am Apr 5, 2012 5:00am
SNB spokesman says won’t accept exchange rate below 1.2000 francs per euro

Written by Gerry Davies
April 5, 2012 at 09:56 GMT

Them’s fighting words.
EUR/USD at 1.2015.


Forexlive.com


See how I keep the thread up to date while you are all schnoozing?


zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz




zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz






zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Gone to a better place
  • #25,504
  • Apr 5, 2012 6:33am Apr 5, 2012 6:33am
When the seriousnes of the situation can no longer be hidden, lots of facts will come to light. In rural areas it seems as though subsidies and how to get them is the main political agenda. Not "How to make farming profitable?" but "How can we get our share?"

Of course, those that are getting their share are keeping quiet about it. There are hundreds of farm subsidy millionaires in Europe and apparently it is fairly easy to buy a plot of moorland in the UK and claim subsidies for it, even if you don't make any attempt to cultivate it. This is criminal. So it is the average taxpayer now keeping open failed banks, supporting agricultural fraud on a massive scale and supporting failed government policy. The Queen of England's estates receive £500,000 in farming subsidies.

Farming subsidies are wrong because they skew the market to such an extent that it is no longer a free market. The various results amount to protectionism, over production, under production and the fraud which is now becoming rampant.
Gone to a better place
  • #25,505
  • Apr 5, 2012 6:40am Apr 5, 2012 6:40am
Short these fraudsters:

In total, nearly 200,000 farmers in Britain received payments of £3.3bn in 2009, up from £2.6bn in 2008, but the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has enforced an information blackout on the subsidies paid to the richest.


(Guardian UK)
Gone to a better place
  • #25,506
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:07am Apr 5, 2012 7:07am
No Tell Motel..........love it, hermit.

i have lots of opinions as you can see. gasoline is just one. i know, i know. too much of a good thing.

odd price moves overnight.......the AUD/USD bounces off 1.0250 on 7, 4H bars while the S&P drops 10 points starting from NY close yesterday (really! wtf is this a market or a casino?)

woke up to find i own more EUR/CHF, smikester........had a funny feeling the Easter bunny was coming

speaking of gasoline/petrol..almost forgot to mention Brent is stuck 122.50 which i find amazing given the selling on the European equity indexes
  • #25,507
  • Apr 5, 2012 9:29am Apr 5, 2012 9:29am
Quoting smikester
Fabulous.

What an interesting day (and proud day) that must have been. I must admit to being a movie buff, horror not being my favourite genre, but I like to tease my girlfriend with the better horror flicks because it's so sexy. (I tend to watch her more than the film)

No, I prefer the thriller, or should I say good quality crime thriller - Fargo and The Usual Suspects spring to mind. I could go on but I might risk boring some of the usual suspects.

On the subject of horror. Real horror. The only Pakistani film to have won an Oscar was a...
Yes, definitely a proud moment for any parent but ya, horror is not my favourite genre either. I'm a sucker for the Indiana Jones kind of outragiousness my self.

I do, however, truely admire artists such as documentary film makers who have the courage to tackle the nasty issues. Not an easy job, I'm sure. One of the very few ways in which the medium rises above its usual tonage of mediocrity.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #25,508
  • Apr 5, 2012 9:29am Apr 5, 2012 9:29am
Quoting smikester
Finally Eur/Chf dropped to 1.2. Very suddenly, I might add. My Euro shorts gapped down. Sounds a bit rude but you get my meaning. Love it when my shorts gap down...
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #25,509
  • Apr 5, 2012 9:47am Apr 5, 2012 9:47am
Quoting smikester
Short these fraudsters:

In total, nearly 200,000 farmers in Britain received payments of £3.3bn in 2009, up from £2.6bn in 2008, but the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has enforced an information blackout on the subsidies paid to the richest.


(Guardian UK)
I'm not a farmer, although I live in farm country, but I see the struggles against foolish government policy that the agricultural community has to put up with. Yes, there are some subidies in certain areas. One of the ones that had me shaking my head was the program to bring in cheap Mexican labour for the fruit industry. Apparently the excuse was that since Canadians were not interested in working long seasonal hours for minimum wage (at the time around $8/ hour) that the Mexicans could be brought up to do the job. Their pay was $10 plus/ hour, free accomodation, free transport into town 3 times a week and return airfair from Mexico and back. Did they ever think of offering the same deal to the locals, not on your life.

They did the same with a meat packing plant in Alberta (a province of Canada) by bringing numerous Hondurans and others who prove to be less than capable workers at the plant but do well as drug dealers in short order after arriving.

Was it Einstein who said (and I'm butchering this) that next to hydrogen, stupidity (of politicians) is the most abundant element in the universe. Go figure, eh?
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #25,510
  • Apr 5, 2012 1:33pm Apr 5, 2012 1:33pm
Quoting roro53
condor........what is the signifigance of the negotiation over the English/foreign law bonds that interests you?
Holders get paid in full, and Greece does not have the funds... I mean, they raided the universities' and hospitals' working capital in one night to pay for the last payment, and now the IMF and the ECB/Bundersbank are reluctant to throw anymore binary into hedged hexadecimal that gives no meaningful integer. Note your comments, but note the buying at bargain under English law... and yes, a shameful extortion of a situation for capital gain by those that can afford to be in the fight for the long-term.

Mentioned many times the gradual annexation of Greece, with those in office gearing up to take charge post-Euro exit. It is going to be hell for the Greeks on the streets.

I'm preoccupied somewhat on the dates for fundamentals that may have significance - and this is not only pertinent to Greece. However, if one is to focus on Greece for the next few weeks/months, the following dates may be pivotal.

20 April: ‘Current’ Greek bond redemption.
29 April: Greek elections first proposal date.
06 May: Greek elections second proposal date.
12 May: Greek bond redemption.

The obfuscation in this sorry act of death is that we have the Turkish equation to monitor whilst the US shows an ever-increasing interest in the resumption of test drilling for black-gold in the Aegean; something the Greek Junta was busy investigating in the 70s, when extraction technology was less advanced.

I don’t think for one minute that the unelected technocrats currently incumbent in Greek office are eyeing this potential revenue stream as a means to reduce the queues at the soup kitchens in Greece – which, incidentally, are run by ordinary citizens, out of their own pockets, for the benefit of their fellow citizens… sickening to think of how little it would cost to feed these people, but still the bastards in the banks take every cent that they can.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #25,511
  • Apr 5, 2012 1:38pm Apr 5, 2012 1:38pm
Quoting chonchy
... I have a show tomorrow in the Tropical Park miami with the electrobike, will be showing the bikes in public for the first time, wish me luck...
Hope the day went well for you...
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #25,512
  • Apr 5, 2012 4:35pm Apr 5, 2012 4:35pm
For those who need a neeener neeener theory fix here's one with a different slant. Could this be the societal change on the wind? Let's pray not ... ooops

http://www.thechristianleftblog.org/...n-fascism.html
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #25,513
  • Edited 6:58pm Apr 5, 2012 6:33pm | Edited 6:58pm
riveting article, hermit.....i think harper belongs to a church (east gate alliance calgary) which is associated with James Dobson and if not mistaken Dobson's organization opened offices in Ottawa (quietly as is the mantra for the Evangelicals) soon after sh (funny initials just noticed) was elected to lead the conversion and quietly spread the (code) word.......

i knew someone when i was living in boston who worked classified high up and gave the same warning about the facism of the christian right, and that was back in the early 90s when no one really had a clue.

as i read through the piece the question about what makes up the human condition to permit oppression and intolerance of others who are 'different' kept repeating itself, and to be honest i really do not know the answer to that.
  • #25,514
  • Apr 5, 2012 7:54pm Apr 5, 2012 7:54pm
Roro53,

Its a conservative bible belt where I live as well. At the grass roots level it all seems to run on a do gooder missionary model. On the higher levels of religiousity the agendas are obviously much different so that tells me that for the most part the grass roots congregations are just sheeple as well.

Here is another flick addressing the human condition that has become a bit of a classic and its kind of trippy too . Better get some popcorn and a beer, its a bit long.

http://www.thegic.org/video/official...#ixzz1rCVOVicP
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #25,515
  • Apr 5, 2012 8:43pm Apr 5, 2012 8:43pm
all right, hermit but how about tomorrow for that conversation........in the meanwhile how about collaborating on assessing the probability of a possible massive intervention by Japan to weaken the Yen

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/JYGGBE05:IND

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/japanese-party-ending

".......there is a growing concern that Japanese officials will decide to turn the currency war amplifier volume to 11 and devalue the JPY. With carry trades unwinding rapidly, JPY continues to strengthen (much to their chagrin) but now we are seeing very aggressive positioning in 5Y JGB breakevens (or inflation bets) which implicitly belie (disguise) devaluation expectations. The key being that, breakevens spiking implies a market expectation that the BoJ will finally be forced to stimulate inflation, as Andy Xie recently pointed out, by going the hyper-inflate path and crushing the JPY."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chines...en-devaluation

i am wondering what condor, smikester and others think also.

condor.........the FLaw bonds appear to have time value regardless of whether Greece has no money to pay 'now'........that may be the kicker in English law bonds and the courts by precedent appear to honor the rules......from what i have read about ELBs the kill ratio for litigants is very high for defaults on sovereigns........
  • #25,516
  • Apr 5, 2012 9:19pm Apr 5, 2012 9:19pm
a few other thoughts skipping around over the complexities of the money printing business by the central banks;

this stage seems more complicated with more moving parts than QE 1 or 2 which were relatively simple in comparison

there are more players directly involved than with the FED's QE1 and 2 so more coordination required - the BOJ and it went stealth bypassing the dollar and selling Yen against the Euro

the SNB is out of the closet with printing and blares its intentions to put a floor at 1.20

the ECB with LTRO 1 and 2 spaced very close to one another which implies more of a basis to print again as opposed to a one-off stimulus although justifications come and go depending on how one looks through the looking glass

central banks are desperate to avoid price deflation and have come this far not to have Spain bring it all crashing down (a must-have-known or at the very least suspected sort of a case)

maybe that happens but best guess is the banks will print again and this may be turning into a consolidation phase

OIL is not acting as if the party is over.....the dollar index is at critical resistance, and Bernanke has set the stage with concerns about employment which is the next best justifcation for more stimulus regardless of the recent minutes because that is all just about perception manipulation

1.0250 looks tough to break for the AUD and CAD is a bitch......it is barely selling against the dollar.........last time i looked the number of people consuming commodities was continuing to rise.

if all of that fails then my pick is to short the NAS100 since it is closest to the very top in relative terms followed by the DOW which may take on the appearance of Italy's ITA40 if Egan Jones downgrades of US debt get traction..........

in financial terms maybe Spain is to Europe what the tsunami was to Japan and a coordinated intervention is already in the works

i would not put it past the central banks and policy makers........lets put it that way

be ready for whatever comes, i guess
  • #25,517
  • Apr 6, 2012 7:44am Apr 6, 2012 7:44am
short the FXCM DJ Dollar index at 10,005, and USD/CHF at 0.9170

weak NFP print dollar negative
  • #25,518
  • Apr 6, 2012 9:44am Apr 6, 2012 9:44am
Friday!!!

happy easter guys and girls.

Inserted Video
Attached Image
  • #25,519
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:17pm Apr 6, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting fxhermit
Horror! No I don't mean the world economic crisis. I'm doing a little bragging here. My sweety and I got to hang on set when this flick was being filmed as my son was one of the photographers and a couple of folks in the credits were former students of my wife when she was teaching television and film making a decade or so back. Was great fun to see these young folk just having a blast at what they like to do. Now the flick is on its way to Cannes . Could do well in its catagorie, scary thought .

http://www.fangoria.com/index.php/ho...ailer-a-poster...

congrats, fxhermit, congrats..........
The Chonchy
  • #25,520
  • Apr 6, 2012 12:17pm Apr 6, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Friday!!!

happy easter guys and girls.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1ZZreXEqSY
.........In deed this thread delivers, your posts are great guys........
The Chonchy
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