Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

i agree ingmar.....european equities look tempting to short especially with the Italy index selling down further.........i am thinking about scaling the NAS100 for shorts, but if Bernanke pulls another comment out of the hat it is probably back to rally mode or at least a solid floor under price

if Draghi strikes a more hawkish tone then you may get your wish and another shot to short euro........liked your comment on GBP up to 1.5950 and short.........

employment numbers start tomorrow and looking for soft numbers so that may put the air back in the QE ballon

for short european equities i like the FTSE up around 5900...pretty close to the top and also close to last summers highs.....i asked condor about his targets for short euro because i am wondering the selling today will have followthrough

i don't like it that the US markets are closed on friday for NFP.........my alternative plan if there is a bad print is too look to short the CAD against the dollar

Like your ftse ideathis is pretty heavy week regarding macro but hoppefully after this week whe finnaly can choose some directions instead of chop around.

thanks ingmar (when can i meet your sister?..she is your sister, i know).......another thing that bothers me is earnings which starts next week and the numbers are expected to be weaker than last Q which according to people i read who trade stocks and options were nothing to write home about.

also, if the NFP print is off as expected then more fuel for the QE fire, and although the FOMC minutes triggered the selling today the smae FOMC meeting als produced a same day rally when J Diamon front ran the FED bank stress tests and kicked off that big rally, remember

the point is today the minutes produced selling and the actual meeting several weeks back was a non event until Diamon made his JPM announcement.

tricky, if you know what i mean.......then Bernanke popped the concern over emplyment being too slow last monday implying more QE

the thing can obviously lurch back and forth so i am still cautious about being short because of asll the verbal and real intervention - the verbal kind gets dropped out of the blue too so makes it a bit more dangerous in a way

here is a take on the FOMC minutes today by Barry Ritholz

the last line of the article; "To us, the implication is that the Federal Reserve is neither going to tighten its policy reins any time soon, nor will it add any further stimulus in the near future – even as the most influential FOMC members, Chairman Bernanke and his Vice Chairs Yellen and Dudley are still leaning to the cautious side.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/category/thinktank/

i like the CAC as a short too

Not really sure, to be honest... a slow burner I hope, and so looking at the 1.53s, perhaps, and then if this pops, how about the 1.51s and 1.43s? Yeah, I know, I might be waiting a long time.

On a fundies note, I cannot see any US QE at the moment. I am Dollar strong in expectation for this year.

Indices look a little toppy...

pretty decent sell off for European equity indexes but the S&P and Dow not close..........sort of look to be pegged at 1400 and 13,000

closed out and back to flat except E/CHF

Pff... jump on a flight for a while, and before I know it, I'm already behind. The date for bond agreement for foreign-law investors has now been shifted back to the 18th of this month - if I recall what I have just read in the FT correctly.

As far as I can see the FOMC message is no more QE for the forseeable future - at least that's what I have been trading fundamentally.

It looks like European and Far Eastern markets have taken a substantial hit and USA has remained relatively unscathed.

I wonder what hidden effect QE has already had on inflation and I mean equity values in particular? I am bumping around in the dark here. Are equity prices a little low, given we are 4 years on from the big crunch and now we are on the road to recovery with trillions of debt meaningless because we can all print our way out of it?

smikester.........i am leary of the divergence between Asian European and US equity indexes........something needs to give and having learned the hard way i am also leary about being short the Dow, SP and NAS100(closed the short trade from last night already) for the simple reason that when the central banks are printing then the turns can come on a dime and climb fast.........the NAS100 is only back to where it was a week ago Monday morning when the market rallied pretty hard on the 8 AM Bernanke speech which was supposed to have been interpreted as a signal of more QE.

virtually the same for the DOW and SP.....all that has been given back is the price between Bernanke's speech a bit over a week ago

part of the problem(as i see it) is the messages are getting very mixed and i think it is intended to be that way.

at least the European indexes seem to trade more 'normally' if there is such a thing as normal anymore.

i can relate to what you said about "bumping around in the dark".........i am being VERY CAREFUL with the trades i take and am quick to turn back to cash

Hello traders..........

............this is what I see but I could be wrong, price is going to hit the magenta line, today tomorrow or next month, but it will, me think, so I'm short, but I could short the franc if some change......

condor........what is the signifigance of the negotiation over the English/foreign law bonds that interests you?

what i read in the run up to the Greek deal was that litigation of defaults by sovereigns in the past had been very successful propositions for the litigants, with a recent example being Argentina paying up $600 million (i think) in a US court.

downside is it takes years and legal fees but the upside is the hedge funds who specialize are in for the long haul so buy at firesale prices with that intent, or to negotiate out higher earlier.

in that context i am wondering if it matters with the exception of English law bonds issued by Portugal and Spain so then the numbers probably extrapolate and a negotiation precedent gets set by Greece.

also, Argentina is not the ECB

i looked at the Nikki and then the NZD/JPY cross.......i thought about what Faber said yesterday looking for Japan to out perform.

kind of looks like what Lee Adler described a few days back and maybe this is an intermediate top..........or, the beginning of a larger sell off, but it is hard to imagine that the central banks have gone to all of this trouble to watch the grand plan blow up in their faces...

the first time the FED printed it was a one off, and then QE 2 got sold and then and then and then

so, what is the difference.........the banks can print and have proved that they are quite adept at it

besides, what choice do they have?.......repay debt along with austerity forever for everyone to pay back fractional reserve loans that were created out of leverage and money that never existed in the first place

smikester........another odd piece of this puzzle is that Brent did not break support at 122 or 121.50, but WTI broke 105 cleanly to the downside

the offset is the European equity indexes are off the tops by 5 to 10%, but the NAs are nowhere close.

the 2 largest oil consuming mkts in the US are Cal and NY and count for a disproportionate percent of GDP and the primary oil source for both is LLS which trades much closer to Brent than WTI

so, if you live in LA or NY and drive you pay a LOT more for gasoline than if you live in Wisconsin and buy WTI

the thing about Europe is that everyone is conditioned to pay a big number for petrol, right?.............not so in the US. not close to what you pay so gasoline prices are political dynamite especially in an election year, but the difference gets buried by quoting prices for WTI vs LLS (no one knows)

slick

i am tempted to buy Brent here with a stop under 121.50......the pop from 122 to 125.70 was on the China PMI last Saturday

i bet the central banks are all watching too.

PS........one other point about this since i am on the subject is that if the central banks cannot make this kite fly then get BIG short

hey Chonchy.........hope you are killing the Euro

........Nice posts roro, good luck on that brent, I have a show tomorrow in the Tropical Park miami with the electrobike, will be showing the bikes in public for the first time, wish me luck.......good luck to all of you trading, I'm to sleep early........trade well........

i wonder what sneaky plays are in store for EUR/CHF?

NFP, and Easter too........heaven or hell, who knows?

that is so cool, Chonchy! ....man, you have a lot of style, smarts and talent for people.

best regards, always

Go Green!!!

Good luck Carlos! Wish you luck my friend!

What a great business to be in. Must be fun too selling those cool bikes to cool people. Your going to do very well for sure especialy as gasoline prices rocket which I'm sure will happen at some point. Probably Roro has a take on that. go for it man, and enjoy yourself.

Bye, bye IMF????

Horror! No I don't mean the world economic crisis. I'm doing a little bragging here. My sweety and I got to hang on set when this flick was being filmed as my son was one of the photographers and a couple of folks in the credits were former students of my wife when she was teaching television and film making a decade or so back. Was great fun to see these young folk just having a blast at what they like to do. Now the flick is on its way to Cannes . Could do well in its catagorie, scary thought .

http://www.fangoria.com/index.php/ho...ailer-a-poster