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Fail Better

  • #3,181
  • Apr 4, 2012 4:58am Apr 4, 2012 4:58am
Looking to sell 108.58 RR EJ.
  • #3,182
  • Apr 4, 2012 5:01am Apr 4, 2012 5:01am
Aggressive: buy UC 9927, cut reverse short 9949.
  • #3,183
  • Apr 4, 2012 5:46am Apr 4, 2012 5:46am
Hi Matt,

I've been following your posts with interest! Here are my thoughts, hope they don't add confusion but here it goes...

Looking possible SFPs that haven't worked on the H4 chart along with the overall downward trend. It kinda gives us a hint that SFP probably is going to yield strong rallies on the AU at present.

The swings that could have formed SFPs at 1 and 2 (in my opinion) failed due lack of confluence with a support area.

The swing lows at 3 looked the best to play. It was playing off D1 to play was on H1 TF off the 1.0336 swing low when interacting with the D1 support area around 1.0380 but it didn't work - sometime it just doesn't ..... That said on the H4 chart you could argue it did work (See 4). It rallied to the FTA even with the gap - but I was too busy licking my wounds to from the H1 fail to play it..... losing 1% hurts. But the gaps did heal me and then some!

For the AUSUSD the next D1 level is 1.0231 .... 30 pips away.
Rally to 1.0304 with possible extension to the W1 TL.

Any comments, criticisms or thoughts would be appreciated!

Regards,

9047
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,184
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:20am Apr 4, 2012 6:20am
UC having none of it.

Metals through the floor, $ on steroids...... I'm on the bench.
  • #3,185
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:59am Apr 4, 2012 6:59am
Quoting Quidsey
UC having none of it.

Metals through the floor, $ on steroids...... I'm on the bench.
I'm shorting USD/CAD from 0.9949. The minor bullish SFP forming on the S&P gives me some confidence.
  • #3,186
  • Apr 4, 2012 7:26am Apr 4, 2012 7:26am
EURUSD on daily TL at 1.3125
EURGBP short at 0.8284
  • #3,187
  • Apr 4, 2012 10:01am Apr 4, 2012 10:01am
Quoting BadgerMatt
I'm shorting USD/CAD from 0.9949. The minor bullish SFP forming on the S&P gives me some confidence.

Oh balls.
  • #3,188
  • Apr 4, 2012 10:29am Apr 4, 2012 10:29am
http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...SD04042012.jpg
  • #3,189
  • Apr 4, 2012 10:56am Apr 4, 2012 10:56am
Quoting 9047
Hi Matt,

I've been following your posts with interest! Here are my thoughts, hope they don't add confusion but here it goes...

Looking possible SFPs that haven't worked on the H4 chart along with the overall downward trend. It kinda gives us a hint that SFP probably is going to yield strong rallies on the AU at present.

The swings that could have formed SFPs at 1 and 2 (in my opinion) failed due lack of confluence with a support area.

The swing lows at 3 looked the best to play. It was playing off D1 to play was on H1 TF off the 1.0336...
My thought on the Aussie recently is that the SFP's on the topside of the down channel have been the way to go rather than fight it on the long side.
  • #3,190
  • Apr 4, 2012 11:09am Apr 4, 2012 11:09am
Hi everyone, good to be back trading after a busy week in college.

Had an FML moment in a UJ trade that I made a video about to see if I should've not interacted. Woke up this morning to check my charts and low-and-behold: UJ hit my T/P had I not closed the trade.

Question for anyone: would you have closed this trade or let it work itself?

Here's the video: http://www.screencast-o-matic.com/watch/clff1mkDy

And I included a chart of UJ to show where it's at right now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,191
  • Apr 4, 2012 1:44pm Apr 4, 2012 1:44pm
I don't see much of a solid trade there, not enough S&R for me. Not to mention entering during the FOMC announcement...looks like your short triggered right at the news pop. Scary.

Quote
Question for anyone:
I would have been out of there.
  • #3,192
  • Apr 4, 2012 2:06pm Apr 4, 2012 2:06pm
Quoting sam0182
I don't see much of a solid trade there, not enough S&R for me. Not to mention entering during the FOMC announcement...looks like your short triggered right at the news pop. Scary.

I would have been out of there.
Thanks for your input, Sam. Hearing "I would have been out of there" from a good trader is exactly the closure I needed. I thought my analysis after the order had triggered was right, i.e. get out. I was happy to get out at -1pip after it went 24pips against me, but still disappointed that the trade ended up working out in the end as I originally intended, with the perfect touch to go along with the collapse straight into my T/P.

Also, I know this sounds bad, but I didn't know there was a news announcement around the time the level would be hit (although I figured something happened by that bullish H1 bar). It's stupid, I know, but I only trade the charts since my timezone pretty much restricts me from being around/awake when news is released.

Still looking for more feedback if anyone wants to offer their thoughts.
  • #3,193
  • Apr 4, 2012 2:33pm Apr 4, 2012 2:33pm
I'm right there with you...for me, missing the move takes a worse toll on my personally than taking a stopout. I don't know why or how but it does. A kick in the face.

Re: my comment on seeing a setup there, we're all discretionary traders in this thread and take that with a grain of salt ie my opinion and mine only. If taking that exact setup (minus the FOMC news release) works for you time after time after time, that's all that matters.

Yep, definitely get in the habit of checking the FF daily calendar (I filter only the red news) every day when you sit down/open charts and make sure you're not getting caught off guard. We've all been there and it usually only takes a couple of news stopouts to force the habit.

GL!

Quoting Amart83
Thanks for your input, Sam. Hearing "I would have been out of there" from a good trader is exactly the closure I needed. I thought my analysis after the order had triggered was right, i.e. get out. I was happy to get out at -1pip after it went 24pips against me, but still disappointed that the trade ended up working out in the end as I originally intended, with the perfect touch to go along with the collapse straight into my T/P.

Also, I know this sounds bad, but I didn't know there was a news announcement around the time the level would be...
  • #3,194
  • Apr 4, 2012 5:18pm Apr 4, 2012 5:18pm
Quoting Quidsey
My thought on the Aussie recently is that the SFP's on the topside of the down channel have been the way to go rather than fight it on the long side.
Very valid point! .... I guess a rule of thumb to apply is when the trend is obvious - trade the SFPs that are with the trend not against it.
  • #3,195
  • Apr 4, 2012 6:46pm Apr 4, 2012 6:46pm
http://content.screencast.com/users/...04-05_0145.png
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #3,196
  • Apr 4, 2012 7:40pm Apr 4, 2012 7:40pm
It looks good initially but upon closer review, FTB was already completed right after that 1hr green close back on March 16.

Whether enough time has passed in the last ~three weeks is at your discretion. If it was a strong daily level, I may consider it.

Did you take it?

Quoting BeLikeWater
http://content.screencast.com/users/...04-05_0145.png
  • #3,197
  • Apr 5, 2012 2:22am Apr 5, 2012 2:22am
Quoting sam0182
It looks good initially but upon closer review, FTB was already completed right after that 1hr green close back on March 16.

Whether enough time has passed in the last ~three weeks is at your discretion. If it was a strong daily level, I may consider it.

Did you take it?
What does mean FTB?

Yeah Im in this trade.
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #3,198
  • Apr 5, 2012 3:02am Apr 5, 2012 3:02am
Quoting BeLikeWater
What does mean FTB?

Yeah Im in this trade.
I took the EU trade.

I spotted the immediate retest but took the view that enough time had passed to make the trade viable.

FTB = first time back
  • #3,199
  • Apr 5, 2012 3:25am Apr 5, 2012 3:25am
Did anyone take the silver sfp (H1 & Daily). Because of D1 bullish bias we should use a D1 target. What target would you use? 3265? Any comment appreciated.i
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  • #3,200
  • Apr 5, 2012 5:54am Apr 5, 2012 5:54am
if it makes some space....i`ll take it
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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