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AUD/USD

  • #42,681
  • Apr 3, 2012 4:44pm Apr 3, 2012 4:44pm
Does anyone see it going north for a while? Its bouncing off of the daily channel and looks to be forming a double bottom, looking for a cross on the TDI.

http://i279.photobucket.com/albums/k...siblesetup.gif
  • #42,682
  • Apr 3, 2012 5:06pm Apr 3, 2012 5:06pm
Quoting e585009
Hell I don't need a pullback. I need a yank-back, a jerk-back, a slap-back, a whip-lash back!!!! I'm long, but not strong. FOREX GODS I thought you were raining on me, but now all I taste is piss...
Our day will come soon
  • #42,683
  • Apr 3, 2012 5:35pm Apr 3, 2012 5:35pm
Quoting Noobicle
Our day will come soon
Well it won't be long now, until the Japan session starts, they always run this thing down further. I miss the days when "OVERSOLD" meant something..
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #42,684
  • Apr 3, 2012 6:11pm Apr 3, 2012 6:11pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
It's month / quarter end.... and people are waiting to see what happens in NY open.

As much as I am bearish AUD, like I said before, I will not short it, been hit bad by the negative swaps. I will continue to build long positions when it gets to my target areas. Right now on the daily chart, I see a nice daily downtrend line from the peak of 29 Feb and the price has bounce off twice off that trendline, together with lower highs and lower lows forming.

Right now the price seems to move up back, probably to re-test the trendline (around 1.0500)....
Just referring back to my earlier post. It seems the upper trendline was respected even by the RBA rate decision and minutes, and it bounced off from there towards the lower trendline.

As things do not come in straight lines in forex, I expect the price to hit around 1.0200 sometime soon, if we're lucky today / tomorrow depending on where you live), but if it bounces off the lower trendline, I see a move back to 1.0400 within the next few days.

However, as mentioned earlier, I will keep buying long positions.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #42,685
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:22pm Apr 3, 2012 7:22pm
  •  duca
  • | Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Investing is simple, but not easy | 409 Posts
i close my long-
the futures june is low
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give 1 and get 100
  • #42,686
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:24pm Apr 3, 2012 7:24pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
Just referring back to my earlier post. It seems the upper trendline was respected even by the RBA rate decision and minutes, and it bounced off from there towards the lower trendline.

As things do not come in straight lines in forex, I expect the price to hit around 1.0200 sometime soon, if we're lucky today / tomorrow depending on where you live), but if it bounces off the lower trendline, I see a move back to 1.0400 within the next few days.

However, as mentioned earlier, I will keep buying long positions.
Me too, I have also lost $$$ due to being short with negative swap fees. Wake me up, when China starts building shit and they need Australian good...this is pathetic...
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #42,687
  • Apr 3, 2012 8:15pm Apr 3, 2012 8:15pm
I told you not to curse the forex gods; now see what you've done? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif
  • #42,688
  • Apr 3, 2012 8:47pm Apr 3, 2012 8:47pm
here is some charts
day 4h and week
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  • #42,689
  • Apr 3, 2012 9:03pm Apr 3, 2012 9:03pm
If I watch the monthly charts, I see the price starting to break the middle band and heading towards 0.9850/0.9930 (july 2008 highs - rising trend line) both levels supported by the SMA34 presently at 0.9740.

On the weekly charts, middle band and SMA34 already broken and price heading towards SMA100 (presently at about 1.0020) with a medium support level to break at about 1.0200.

What I see globally is a dip to parity, although we could bounce back up from the 1.0250 (61.8% retracement on previous daily swing high) to 1.0200 area, and pull back to around 1.0480/1.0450 (38.2% retracement on daily swing low).
  • #42,690
  • Apr 3, 2012 9:38pm Apr 3, 2012 9:38pm
Quoting doblece
If I watch the monthly charts, I see the price starting to break the middle band and heading towards 0.9850/0.9930 (july 2008 highs - rising trend line) both levels supported by the SMA34 presently at 0.9740.

On the weekly charts, middle band and SMA34 already broken and price heading towards SMA100 (presently at about 1.0020) with a medium support level to break at about 1.0200.

What I see globally is a dip to parity, although we could bounce back up from the 1.0250 (61.8% retracement on previous daily swing high) to 1.0200 area, and pull...
yes i can see what you see
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  • #42,691
  • Apr 3, 2012 11:03pm Apr 3, 2012 11:03pm
Quoting bjdk
yes i can see what you see
I can see 1.08 next month, Long
  • #42,692
  • Apr 3, 2012 11:06pm Apr 3, 2012 11:06pm
Quoting Noobicle
I can see 1.08 next month, Long
How so? Im of the other opinion, its going to get under $1. Aussie market seems to be taking a hit, with commodoties price going neutral or bearish and with so many people now tipping the RBA will have to lower the interest rate in May to stimulate growth.
  • #42,693
  • Apr 3, 2012 11:11pm Apr 3, 2012 11:11pm
Quoting Zac
How so? Im of the other opinion, its going to get under $1. Aussie market seems to be taking a hit, with commodoties price going neutral or bearish and with so many people now tipping the RBA will have to lower the interest rate in May to stimulate growth.
Shouldnt under-estimate the chinese, they are sneaky
  • #42,694
  • Apr 3, 2012 11:22pm Apr 3, 2012 11:22pm
Quoting Noobicle
Shouldnt under-estimate the chinese, they are sneaky
True,
I think people have over exaggerated issues in China.
Eitherway, im bearish on the AUD for now and next months RBA meeting should be interesting.
On the other hand USD data is rather positive and one of the only markets rallying nicely. This Friday seems to be a big day for the US with the job data to be released and after that in June with the Fed announcing what they will do with the economy if anything.
  • #42,695
  • Apr 3, 2012 11:35pm Apr 3, 2012 11:35pm
possible for a short covering to 1.0350 region?

its had an extended fall, out of the range low 1.03, and usually has a retracement of some sort.

current market mood isnt bearish equities, so AUD may bounce at some point here.
  • #42,696
  • Apr 3, 2012 11:37pm Apr 3, 2012 11:37pm
Just sharing some thoughts on the fundamentals...

Personally i feel that market has overreacted over reports of China slowdown causing sharp sell off of AUD. Aussie relies more on China economy than its own home data. This can be seen over the past reports of Aussie home data comparing to China reports like the manufacturing PMI on 1st April. This literally implies possible RBA interest reduction (if it happens) may just have a short term impact on AUD

Just like US Feds, China government are being conservative in their stand on their economy growth but in fact, China economy are still very much growing. FOMC news may have rallied the dollar, but in fact it is still very much negative outlook for USD and its economy.

AUD being 30% overvalued, I would be looking at this sell off of AUD as a long overdue market correction and it could be setting up a better scene for the bulls to enter in the long term market perspective
  • #42,697
  • Apr 3, 2012 11:42pm Apr 3, 2012 11:42pm
Cheater, I agree with all you said there, except the bit on the US economy. While its definitely not in a good place and will be in a bad place for a while yet. What im taking note of however is its very slowly climbing back into better territory. So as long as its moving forwards I see that as a plus for the US.
  • #42,698
  • Apr 3, 2012 11:48pm Apr 3, 2012 11:48pm
Quoting cheater
Just sharing some thoughts on the fundamentals...

Personally i feel that market has overreacted over reports of China slowdown causing sharp sell off of AUD. Aussie relies more on China economy than its own home data. This can be seen over the past reports of Aussie.....
Yeah lets wait till the next president of the usa gets in office an your see all their money go to wars. Obamas just desperate for some browny points

^_^
  • #42,699
  • Apr 4, 2012 12:18am Apr 4, 2012 12:18am
Quoting Noobicle
I can see 1.08 next month, Long
i an see 1.1100 if this play out
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  • #42,700
  • Apr 4, 2012 12:38am Apr 4, 2012 12:38am
closed my sell from yesterday
maybe get a retrace from here
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