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  • #25,441
  • Apr 2, 2012 9:07pm Apr 2, 2012 9:07pm
Quoting roro53
i am trying to work out a few different trading styles, ingmar;

one for hit and run

another for what i like to refer to as 'kill zone' shots where i over leverage

and position trades in the mix

the hit and runs can do all right especially for reducing risk and producing nice returns........small or incremental but do they add up quickly

kill zones are trades with a fundamental catalyst like the Security Council vote in favor of a resolution to deploy military force against Libya so load up on OIL or the BOJ announces massive...

Yeah it is a lot of work eventually it never stops learning i guess but i love it to learn everytime something new some books or whatever are bad but there is eventually always something valuable in it especially when it gives that click in your head and it makes sense.

Myself i also use different methods i find currencies pretty rangebound so i use mainly also kinda revision to the mean but then more based on atr currencies tend to range a lot imo even if they are trending they kinda break from range to range point everytime. When they eventually break a range the start a new range and use the previous ceiling or floor as the new top or bottom everytime. Also more flow driven then other markets. since sometime now i been in to pair trading arbitrage i like it verry much because you dont need to guess direction and it is verry accurate seems to be my main thing now eventually next to it i like to speculate for example the gbp/usd i expect the boe will do another round of easing so i am watching that 1 currently to open shorts waiting for some dailly exhaustion move with targets below 1.56 even lower also eu looks attractive in to the 1.36 area if it gets there is the question but in terms of risk reward i dont like to short here already. Looks like it is still in squeezing mode. My stuff i use says still up but it can be wrong but dont like to bet against it if whe close lower today probally road open. There is also on the dx some trendline i am watching comes in around 74.10 on the futures in dx.
  • #25,442
  • Apr 2, 2012 9:07pm Apr 2, 2012 9:07pm
Quoting chonchy
we are stuck here like a yoyo, I bether get a nap to be ready for london, be back later, thanks for your coments guys, very informative, thanks......later
Cya chonchy like your thread to.
  • #25,443
  • Apr 2, 2012 9:15pm Apr 2, 2012 9:15pm
you know, one of the things that knaws at me about getting short this market, and there are some pretty smart traders who are standing aside up at current prices, is the knowing that Q 2 can be a repeat of Q 1 where the market just did that steady relentless boring march higher..........a perfect central bank price drone.

the charts are identical repetitions of QE 1 and 2......, until the money runs out.

this time around all of the banks are in play
  • #25,444
  • Edited Apr 3, 2012 2:52am Apr 2, 2012 10:20pm | Edited Apr 3, 2012 2:52am
shorted OIl, Eur, CAd, AUD (with tight stops) against USD off the RBA rate statement.......no cut but the text implies a narrowing of yield differential and concern over slowing global ec.........

my best guess for today

05:50 AM .......closed out. made some money on AUD, CAD, Oil and down on Euro
  • #25,445
  • Apr 3, 2012 4:18am Apr 3, 2012 4:18am
Quoting roro53
shorted OIl, Eur, CAd, AUD (with tight stops) against USD off the RBA rate statement.......no cut but the text implies a narrowing of yield differential and concern over slowing global ec.........

my best guess for today

05:50 AM .......closed out. made some money on AUD, CAD, Oil and down on Euro
........nice trades roro.......
The Chonchy
  • #25,446
  • Apr 3, 2012 4:19am Apr 3, 2012 4:19am
......chopy very chopy market........
The Chonchy
  • #25,447
  • Apr 3, 2012 4:38am Apr 3, 2012 4:38am
.........the franc can't break that 0.9000, it keeps bouncing......that is why the yurow can't go higher eather.......
The Chonchy
  • #25,448
  • Apr 3, 2012 5:22am Apr 3, 2012 5:22am
..........it's break or turn kind of situation, I think.......
The Chonchy
  • #25,449
  • Apr 3, 2012 5:48am Apr 3, 2012 5:48am
got filled for more eur/chf at 1.2035 ........i have larger orders lower so no SNB so far......my dream is e/chf returns to mean over 1.40 and up to 1.47 (lol)

chonchy.......are you getting up to trade London hrs?......i went to sleep around 2, up at 5 to close the trades and back to sleep. yesterday was really busy so not normal otherwise i usually am up from about 2/2:30 and cross over into NY unless the London session is obviously really slow.

getting used to the hrs took a me while

i am hoping ingmar posts more pix today too.......off the vin again too (wonder how long it lasts this time? lol......it snapped me out of my funk though so $15 was worth it)
  • #25,450
  • Apr 3, 2012 6:06am Apr 3, 2012 6:06am
Quoting chonchy
.........the franc can't break that 0.9000, it keeps bouncing......that is why the yurow can't go higher eather.......
Just took a long off that .9000 - .9024 to be precise - and I'm at break even. Yippee could go all the way to 1.0 and beyond. Unless forex tries to break my heart again...

@roro: I'm also eyeing that trade and hopefully they will lift the swissy again. Regards wine - try a glass of water once in a while. Alright, I know what fishes do in it, but it is safe.

By the way, fishes don't drink alcohol either. The more fool them, I say.
Gone to a better place
  • #25,451
  • Apr 3, 2012 6:12am Apr 3, 2012 6:12am
i like that trade too smikester.....if US Treasuries get a yield then the SFranc and Yen will get hammered by the dollar and parity is not so far off either.

i may look for an entry order closer to 0.90 if i can get it (maybe a stop under the recent low 0.8930 or another entry at 0.8975 to double up but with a closer stop)

i like water too.....sometimes i just need to get my mind right

london had its swoon and too bad i missed it for the most part becaiuse i kind of figured there were quick in/out shorts for the DAX, and FTSE.......that FTSE is right back into the top of its prior range.....

FOMC minutes this afternoon so who knows what this b/s market brings....maybe S&P makes it to 1450 today on revalation of more QE. maybe i am not so dumb after all, smikester....you know the atomic money bomb thing i wrote about and all. faber just calls it Jumbo QE instead
  • #25,452
  • Apr 3, 2012 6:25am Apr 3, 2012 6:25am
banks are all the same....RBC (canada) gets sued by CFTC over 'wash trades'.....100s of millions in equity futures to get tax credits form the govt. if that story is accurate then bottom line is RBC is stealing from the taxpayer........call it what it is. i remember the CIBC getting caught up in the natural gas price manipulation in California by Enron.......CIBC was knowingly financing the manipulation and paid a heavy fine to settle with the State in 2005.

smikester......i lived in Plymouth when i was a boy. my father was on exchange with the RN....started school in England too.......cheery o!
  • #25,453
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:00am Apr 3, 2012 7:00am
Quoting smikester
Just took a long off that .9000 - .9024 to be precise - and I'm at break even. Yippee could go all the way to 1.0 and beyond. Unless forex tries to break my heart again...

@roro: I'm also eyeing that trade and hopefully they will lift the swissy again. Regards wine - try a glass of water once in a while. Alright, I know what fishes do in it, but it is safe.

By the way, fishes don't drink alcohol either. The more fool them, I say.
.....It should go back down again, and the yurow up, but that is only me that, I'm long yurow, short franc, lol
The Chonchy
  • #25,454
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:02am Apr 3, 2012 7:02am
Quoting roro53
got filled for more eur/chf at 1.2035 ........i have larger orders lower so no SNB so far......my dream is e/chf returns to mean over 1.40 and up to 1.47 (lol)

chonchy.......are you getting up to trade London hrs?......i went to sleep around 2, up at 5 to close the trades and back to sleep. yesterday was really busy so not normal otherwise i usually am up from about 2/2:30 and cross over into NY unless the London session is obviously really slow.

getting used to the hrs took a me while

i am hoping ingmar posts more pix today too.......off...
...........well with the electrobikeUSA.com going and the friend of mine bathroom going..........

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......but I'm trying to stay awake.........at london
The Chonchy
  • #25,455
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:11am Apr 3, 2012 7:11am
Managed to catch the usdjpy but unfortunately missed that great eur impulse bar, must be exhaustion setting in (mine that is, not price?). Don't think the jpy will last much longer the way its consolidating after the pin bar but who knows? Certainly has been a market where one has to be nimble and the timing has to be right on, always a challenge. Isn't forex fun?
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Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #25,456
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:17am Apr 3, 2012 7:17am
@roro: Your posts have set me off researching again. I don't think anybody really knows if doing the opposite of what was done in the 1930's will work? Mervyn King: "Of course, the provision of additional liquidity support to countries or institutions in trouble can buy time. But that time will prove valuable only if it is used to tackle the underlying problem."

Perhaps the best thing to do is have early warning systems in place and shut down excessive lending and overheating of economies before there are too many bars, restaurants, nail and sun tan parlours and the average Joe thinks he's a millionaire because his house is worth twice what it was worth 10 years ago.

It's barmy. I wouldn't expect the government - i.e. the taxpayer - to bail out my business if I were insolvent.
Gone to a better place
  • #25,457
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:23am Apr 3, 2012 7:23am
Quoting chonchy
.....It should go back down again, and the yurow up, but that is only me that, I'm long yurow, short franc, lol
look like I'm going to get knocked out then. To be honest, it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong, Chonchy. Don't believe me?
Gone to a better place
  • #25,458
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:30am Apr 3, 2012 7:30am
Gone flat the jpy. Off to catch a few zzzzz's. Sweet dreams.
Attached Image
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #25,459
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:57am Apr 3, 2012 7:57am
Quoting fxhermit
Gone flat the jpy. Off to catch a few zzzzz's. Sweet dreams.
Thanks for the ongoing trading instruction. Just because I don't respond doesn't mean I'm not taking notice.
Gone to a better place
  • #25,460
  • Apr 3, 2012 7:58am Apr 3, 2012 7:58am
Where is 45Condor? Hmm.
Gone to a better place
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