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Are you a consistently profitable trader?

  • #221
  • Edited 1:57pm Apr 1, 2012 1:28pm | Edited 1:57pm
Quoting QuadrupleX
I see all trades as a "risk", I like more the word probability but anyways. So if somebody sees a bigger "risk" I would consider that person a newbie. I see a pro as somebody that sees risk (probability) or no trade anything beyond that is IMHO lack of experience.

And the guy that kicks himself after the fact for not taking a trade or not making public a call is a gambler still not ready to be consistent or even trade at all.


I see it a little different.

First big institutions have problems to get in the market. And once they...
I see all trades as a "risk"...That's a fact.

I like more the word probability but anyways...Probability of what if I may ask?

So if somebody sees a bigger "risk" I would consider that person a newbie. I see a pro as somebody that sees risk (probability) or no trade anything beyond that is IMHO lack of experience.

The "bigger risk" is on the heart-mind side and is certainly in the perception of the trader making live calls or managing OPM, so more experience, confidence etc. may be needed there to make that transition. The risk is not from their perception of the market or the trade itself. To say they are a newbie...not necessarily so...mho. Psychology affects everybody, even the pros. Some of these "pros" actually puke...literally...on their trading desk as they "learn/gain experience" to manage the big bucks. They puke because they are trying to stomach much larger fluctuations or losses while in the trade. For example, if you have a $1M dollar position on Eur-Usd, 1 pip = $100 US. 20 pips down is $2,000.00. What if they are position trading...holding the trade for much longer...with a few million dollars on the line...that "risk" could be staggering to a "pro".


First big institutions have problems to get in the market. And once they are in, they have a problems to get out.

That's for sure because of the size of the positions. Agreed.


About the relative "small" percentage big institutions make in comparison to retail traders, I believe it is due to the fact that retailers lie and get away with it. Institutions can also lie, but they get cot shortly after, because they are accountable to their costumers.

Can't go there with you on that one. Some may lie as with everything else, but I know first-hand of some results that you may not even believe. You must have really encountered some unscrupulous retail traders around some of these forums.

But, it's all good .

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #222
  • Apr 1, 2012 1:57pm Apr 1, 2012 1:57pm
Maybe it would be interesting to see a poll about how much money people have won or lost in forex. Eg "won >1,000,000", "won 100,000 - 1,000,000", "won 10,000-100,000", "won 1,000-10,000", "won <1,000", "lost <1,000", etc.
  • #223
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:00pm Apr 1, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting micmic
Maybe it would be interesting to see a poll about how much money people have won or lost in forex. Eg "won >1,000,000", "won 100,000 - 1,000,000", "won 10,000-100,000", "won 1,000-10,000", "won <1,000", "lost <1,000", etc.
Would be. Think they would tell the truth? LOL! Might be too intrusive/too close to home for some.

Do many keep good records, especially when they are just trying to learn? If they have had multiple accounts with different brokers etc.

Nevertheless, it would be interesting I think.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #224
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:14pm Apr 1, 2012 2:14pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
[color=Navy]

Can't go there with you on that one. Some may lie as with everything else, but I know first-hand of some results that you may not even believe.

But, it's all good .

FX4
We do have some examples of people that made a "killer" but I would consider it a RARE EXCEPTION, more on the lines of hitting the jackpot.

It has more to do with luck than skills.

One classic example is Tim Sykes. He transformed 10 grand in 1.5 or 2 millions don't remember the exact number.

What he did was in my opinion 10 or 15% skills the rest was pure luck. He was trading breakouts on penny stocks in a time where breakouts were plenty. As soon as the "inefficiency" in the market was corrected he stopped making money. The money he makes right now is selling things, teaching, etc. In other words all he does now is still a derivative from that first exploit of a market inefficiency, which he exploited based in its majority on LUCK.

Another example. George Soros.

I would put his success in the range of 50/50 skills luck. He took a bet based on a fundamental view of the market. he spotted a possible inefficiency and he went and betted the farm on it. You can do the same on casinos.

Now let me ask you. How many times Soros broke any other bank?

That was a unique opportunity that he happened to be right.

His hedge fund never apart from one big killer never performed more than the average in all those years. And all money ,fame etc he still enjoy is a derivative of that lucky bet he did.

Now in the select group of traders that seem to pull it over and over again we see Paul Tudor Jones, Warren Buffet and a few others.

But even in these cases you still have to play with factors like manipulation, privileged information, etc that happens when you become really big and branch your business to politics, hard core research and even espionage.
  • #225
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:18pm Apr 1, 2012 2:18pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Would be. Think they would tell the truth? LOL! Might be too intrusive/too close to home for some.

It would still be an anonymous poll, so confidentiality wouldn't be an issue. I don't know about telling the truth, maybe we would find that this place is full of millionaires
  • #226
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:27pm Apr 1, 2012 2:27pm
Quoting micmic
It would still be an anonymous poll, so confidentiality wouldn't be an issue. I don't know about telling the truth, maybe we would find that this place is full of millionaires
Well, set it up. If that is the case, as someone has said earlier, maybe GS or somebody would make Merlin an offer .

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #227
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:27pm Apr 1, 2012 2:27pm
Might be interesting to know for each of the poll questions if the "length of time trading" was identified to see how it correlates to the answers.
My real life case in point: 6 months ago I my answer would have been different from today. Following the initial learning phase and demo account (about 1 yr), I've been trading micro account for the last 1 1/2 yrs. First six months had no winning months. Next 9 months was progressively better with a few breakeven months & a couple scattered winners. The last 3, since jan. 1st have all been profitable, and better yet - I feel I know why & can continue to repeat. So my point being - as experience develops & chart time increases, performance goes with it. At least that's been my experience.
dmost
  • #228
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:34pm Apr 1, 2012 2:34pm
It is not that hard to know the truth speaking about "forum traders" if you pay attention to the details.

I had a little argument with a guy on the MB forum.

He claims to be a successful trader just to end the conversation thanking MB for their rebate on the PAY-PER-LIMIT plan

Now let me ask you. How more ridiculous it can be?

MB pays like 3 bucks per limit order. That accounts for what? 3 pips in a mini lot trade?

Now let me ask you. If you are a good trader and make 1 or 2 grand per day will you bother to count 15 or 20 bucks on MB freaking rebates?
  • #229
  • Edited 3:56pm Apr 1, 2012 2:37pm | Edited 3:56pm
Quoting QuadrupleX
We do have some examples of people that made a "killer" but I would consider it a RARE EXCEPTION, more on the lines of hitting the jackpot.

It has more to do with luck than skills.

One classic example is Tim Sykes. He transformed 10 grand in 1.5 or 2 millions don't remember the exact number.

What he did was in my opinion 10 or 15% skills the rest was pure luck. He was trading breakouts on penny stocks in a time where breakouts were plenty. As soon as the "inefficiency" in the market was corrected he stopped making money. The money he makes...
Just curious...do you see this trading business as a gamble of sorts? Both Warren Buffet and Soros have had major losers...into the hundreds of millions on just a handful of trades.

And all money ,fame etc he (Soros) still enjoy is a derivative of that lucky bet he did.

Is bet synonymous here with gamble in your estimation?

Successful trading I think boils down to successful management of risks...market risk, system risk, trader risk etc., and learning how to maximize the good opportunities when they do come. Gambling does not offer that option: no control of risk once in. Just one of the differences between the two.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #230
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:50pm Apr 1, 2012 2:50pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Just curious...do you see this trading business as a gamble of sorts? Both Warren Buffet and Soros have had major losers...into the hundreds of millions on just a handful of trades.

And all money ,fame etc he (Soros) still enjoy is a derivative of that lucky bet he did.

Is bet synonymous here with gamble in your estimation?

Successful trading I think boils down to successful management of risks...market risk, system risk, trader risk etc. Gambling does not offer that option: no control...
I see forex as everything else in life as a probable thing.

Gamble for me is a game with dice or coin flipping. I don't see the markets in the same level as these king of games.

Just look at the charts and you will see things that repeat itself over and over again.

To be or not to be that's the question (probability model)
  • #231
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:52pm Apr 1, 2012 2:52pm
Quoting dmostpips
Might be interesting to know for each of the poll questions if the "length of time trading" was identified to see how it correlates to the answers.
My real life case in point: 6 months ago I my answer would have been different from today. Following the initial learning phase and demo account (about 1 yr), I've been trading micro account for the last 1 1/2 yrs. First six months had no winning months. Next 9 months was progressively better with a few breakeven months & a couple scattered winners. The last 3, since jan. 1st have all been profitable,...
Hi dmostpips,

Good thinking. I did make a comment earlier about the time each trader has been at it. There would have been too many options or allowances for multiple options to be selected which could have skewed the results even more. Also, too many questions could have been a visual turn off...looks to hard, why bother. I think it is safe to assume that it takes on average at the very minimum 2-3 years or so, depending on the heart-mind of the trader, and the method they are using.

The last 3, since jan. 1st have all been profitable, and better yet - I feel I know why & can continue to repeat. So my point being - as experience develops & chart time increases, performance goes with it.

It is my belief, if a trader can have at least 3 consecutive winning months, something in them must have clicked. Congrats!!! .

Keep going at your pace,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #232
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:55pm Apr 1, 2012 2:55pm
Quoting QuadrupleX
It is not that hard to know the truth speaking about "forum traders" if you pay attention to the details.

I had a little argument with a guy on the MB forum.

He claims to be a successful trader just to end the conversation thanking MB for their rebate on the PAY-PER-LIMIT plan

Now let me ask you. How more ridiculous it can be?

MB pays like 3 bucks per limit order. That accounts for what? 3 pips in a mini lot trade?

Now let me ask you. If you are a good trader and make 1 or 2 grand per day will you bother to count 15 or 20 bucks on...
Wouldn't be too interested in counting those rebates, but would make sure they hit my account. .

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #233
  • Apr 1, 2012 2:59pm Apr 1, 2012 2:59pm
An anonymous poll won't ever be representative I'm afraid. You get most out of listening to people's advice, and then decide FOR YOURSELF if it makes sense.

Something else random I noticed: Hunting tops and bottoms is like trying to catch a fly with chopsticks. Don't bother...just try to get part of the move :lol:
  • #234
  • Edited 4:54pm Apr 1, 2012 3:04pm | Edited 4:54pm
p
Quoting QuadrupleX
I see forex as everything else in life as a probable thing.

Gamble for me is a game with dice or coin flipping. I don't see the markets in the same level as these king of games.

Just look at the charts and you will see things that repeat itself over and over again.

To be or not to be that's the question (probability model)
I like to think of gambling as blind chance...the coin flipping idea or the roll of the dice. Using two sets of dice, one set weighted (or loaded) and the other not, is crooked of course, because the pair of weighted dice presents a situation of no more random chance: as bias has been added with certain probable outcomes. Imagine using several pairs of weighted dice with varying probable outcomes. No more of a gamble there. The only one gambling there would be the gambler who walks into the casino or wherever to try his/her luck. No luck at all under those conditions . He/she is toast.

Trading offers opportunities with variable market biases with variable built-in risks. It is the trader who must find the edge to capitalize on the opportunity, because it is there for the taking.

A little something on loaded/weighted dice from Wiki...

Loaded dice

A loaded, weighted or crooked die is one that has been tampered with to land with a specific side facing upwards more often than it normally would. There are several methods for creating loaded dice; these include round and off-square faces and (if not transparent) weights. Tappers have a mercury drop in a reservoir at the center, with a capillary tube leading to another reservoir at a side; the load is activated by tapping the die so that the mercury travels to the side.

Another type of loaded die is hollow with a small weight and a semi-solid substance inside whose melting point is just lower than the temperature of the human body, allowing the cheater to change the loading of the die by applying body heat, causing the semi-solid to melt and the weight to drift down, making the chosen opposite face more likely to land up. A less common type of loaded die can be made by inserting a magnet into the die and embedding a coil of wire in the game table; running current through the coil increases the likelihood of a certain side landing on the bottom, depending on the direction of the current. Transparent acetate dice, used in all reputable casinos, are harder to tamper with than other dice.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #235
  • Edited Apr 2, 2012 2:48am Apr 1, 2012 3:17pm | Edited Apr 2, 2012 2:48am
Quoting 4exNinja
An anonymous poll won't ever be representative I'm afraid. You get most out of listening to people's advice, and then decide FOR YOURSELF if it makes sense.

Something else random I noticed: Hunting tops and bottoms is like trying to catch a fly with chopsticks. Don't bother...just try to get part of the move :lol:
An anonymous poll can only do so much...I agree. A trader must know what they are about and why. A few people have posted earlier saying how they got to be profitable for three consecutive months, and they have put much time and effort testing and making the system they use their own.

Hunting tops and bottoms can be maddening. A trader should just do their best to get the best price...that's it. Yes, just get part of the move, but always keep trying to improve.

I do know someone who caught a fly with chopsticks...a martial artist. Don't know how many times they did it, but they did.

Thanks,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #236
  • Edited 7:16pm Apr 1, 2012 3:52pm | Edited 7:16pm
Quoting l88thm
I'm paper trading at the minute alongside my full time day job, learning the ropes and using a good system. Been trading a month now and 8 out of 10 trades are profitable. I'm averaging around 20 pips profit per day over two to three trades. I'd say that one out of the two trades that go bad are because I am not disciplined enough and act impulsively, which I am working on.

Once I have finished my learning (mainly advanced candlestick pattern recognition and trading psychology) I will hopefully transition into trading full time.
Just saw your post l88thm.

Glad you are paper trading and using a "good system" Does it have back-tested results? Have you tested it?

Trading for 1 month...80% profitable. Great!
20 pips daily profit (average)...over 2 or 3 trades. Not bad...not over doing it. Are you scalping? What time-frames are you trading?

I'd say that one out of the two trades that go bad are because I am not disciplined enough and act impulsively, which I am working on.

Very good. Impulsive trading can be a killer. Fight to trade your system every single time. If you get in otherwise, and realize after you have clicked, that it looks bad, try to excuse yourself with the least amount of loss possible. Otherwise, if you are wrong and start hoping, you might walk away limping.

Before you go live, make sure you are very settled in trading your method. Don't want to have too many issues to adjust and modify while you're trading live as a newbie. Take your time, there is no rush.

All the best,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #237
  • Apr 1, 2012 6:39pm Apr 1, 2012 6:39pm
you have to understand this market.who and what makes this market,one hedge fund or one bank can only move the price temporerally 20 or 30 pips,with the knowledge of stops and market interest it can be manipilated were price will fall or rise by its range.cascade effect,also filling the viods in no market interest,some of them viods are 60 pips plus.these are realistic edges.for a prelonged change in the real value a goverment needs to change there fundemental economic strategy.again we can gain from this .for the most part its everyday biusness transactions with many particpents creating a some what chaotic intraday price structure,zoom out and its perfectly clear,not sure of the traders name but he is selling the yen on a long term basis through this understanding.hes a 1000 pips up and dosnt anticipate closing unless theres a policy change.

zoom in and with the knowledge of understanding the make up of this market then as intraday traders we can gain our edge.with the elements that are required.
  • #238
  • Apr 1, 2012 7:46pm Apr 1, 2012 7:46pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46896629

here you have some examples of "consistent" traders. They do have some advantages but they also have some problems retailers don't.

They are happy with 15 to 25% per year, 30% is a great year and they are payed billions for that kind of performance.

Now people here claim 10% a day.

It makes me wonder why Goldman sacks don't come here and recruit those genius.

  • #239
  • Edited 8:51pm Apr 1, 2012 8:36pm | Edited 8:51pm
Quoting QuadrupleX
They are happy with 15 to 25% per year, 30% is a great year and they are payed billions for that kind of performance.

Now people here claim 10% a day.

It makes me wonder why Goldman sacks don't come here and recruit those genius.

Your argument has been made many times before and is flawed because of the fact that a $10,000 account does not have the same issues of liquidity as a $1,000,000,000 account
  • #240
  • Apr 1, 2012 8:54pm Apr 1, 2012 8:54pm
Quoting havaiana
Your argument has been made many times before and is flawed because of the fact that a $10,000 account does not have the same issues of liquidity as a $1,000,000,000 account
Not the same issues but also not the same advantages.

Read past posts before posting this particular was discussed not long ago .
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