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  • #201
  • Apr 1, 2012 9:26am Apr 1, 2012 9:26am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Wanted to say that I think this very expectation placed on those who post calls or signals is what makes it even tougher for them to do so. Not saying the expectation is wrong, it is just part of the mix that could make things harder if a person isn't ready for that emotional load. The slightest adverse move against the call adds a heavier emotional burden because other people might be in the trade that was called, and now the mind games can really kick in.

Just thought I'd share that dimension of it.

The bottom line though is consistent...
That may shed some light about the reliability of your poll project.

If people behind a nick pretty much anonymous on the internet can't handle the pressure of posting live calls in a thread, how can they handle the REAL pressures of trading for REAL in a REAL market?

What happens is that people have the tendency to project themselves in their "nick" and by the way it starts by just "choosing a nick" or a avatar that goes with their nick etc.

Everything we do as humans tend to be means to express what we are. Thats real for clothes, our car, hair stile etc. You name it and it is pretty much a way of express ourselves.

So people come here to vote and instead of being honest they prefer to:

1- Project what they want to be.
2- Hide what they are.
3- Avoid even a idea of what they don't want.
4-Etc

Not 100% of people will lie but the biggest majority will. You can count on that.

Modern polls use other technics to extract the truth from people other that a direct question on the subject.
  • #202
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:09am Apr 1, 2012 10:09am
Quoting QuadrupleX
Thats incorrect Dice. They post the past.

I can scalp and post all my trades here in "real time" and it is still the past.

I think 1 or 2 years ago at the trading journals a big scammer was posting his scalps in "real time" and got a "god like" status.

It turned out that more experienced traders started to track his posts and and busted his tactics.

I don't remember the guys name but it was a HUGE deal at the time.

The guy ended up being banned by FF mods.

Tell me about ONE trader that post calls beforehand for 20 pips or so and in a...
hi quad

Thats a generlisation,

i called my trades on and of for months,yes some for small gains but most over 20 pips,some for + 100.also calling when i was protecting my position by taking part profits.there are many other traders doing likewise,if you look after the fact it can always look historic,but if your live trading alday and seeing traders calls you will see there in the present time.

i dont concider myself a pro,just sombody learning there craft
  • #203
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:32am Apr 1, 2012 10:32am
Quoting diceman555
hi quad

Thats a generlisation,

i called my trades on and of for months,yes some for small gains but most over 20 pips,some for + 100.also calling when i was protecting my position by taking part profits.there are many other traders doing likewise,if you look after the fact it can always look historic,but if your live trading alday and seeing traders calls you will see there in the present time.

i dont concider myself a pro,just sombody learning there craft
I'm not trying to praise or bash anybody but I'm not aware of a trader ( here on FF or anywhere else) that for lets say 6 months did something like this:

9:30 AM ET long EUR/USD 1.3320
10:45 AM ET closing position for +32 pips
10:56 AM ET Short EUR/USD 1.3355
11:02 AM ET Closing position -12 pips
11:25 AM ET long EUR/USD 1.3345
11:55 AM ET Adding to my long @ 1.4005
etc, etc.


And of course typing it as it goes not 30 minutes later or at the end of the day.

The day I see something on this lines I will believe the person.
  • #204
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:36am Apr 1, 2012 10:36am
Quoting QuadrupleX
I'm not trying to praise or bash anybody but I'm not aware of a trader ( here on FF or anywhere else) that for lets say 6 months did something like this:

9:30 AM ET long EUR/USD 1.3320
10:45 AM ET closing position for +32 pips
10:56 AM ET Short EUR/USD 1.3355
11:02 AM ET Closing position -12 pips
11:25 AM ET long EUR/USD 1.3345
11:55 AM ET Adding to my long @ 1.4005
etc, etc.


And of course typing it as it goes not 30 minutes later or at the end of the day.

The day I see something on this lines I will believe the person.
I actually would prefer the trade explorer. Kinda difficult to fake the trades that are recorded in there. Although there are for sure ways to fake that too.
  • #205
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:40am Apr 1, 2012 10:40am
Quoting quadruplex
i'm not trying to praise or bash anybody but i'm not aware of a trader ( here on ff or anywhere else) that for lets say 6 months did something like this:

9:30 am et long eur/usd 1.3320
10:45 am et closing position for +32 pips
10:56 am et short eur/usd 1.3355
11:02 am et closing position -12 pips
11:25 am et long eur/usd 1.3345
11:55 am et adding to my long @ 1.4005
etc, etc.


And of course typing it as it goes not 30 minutes later or at the end of the day.

The day i see something on this lines i will believe the person.
the problem when looking at the posts after the event will look historic without meaning,but if you were present at the moment the calls are posted ther very live,also the time is of posting is on the post so it validates its truthfulness.when i posted my calls of coarse theres a small time varance to mark my charts and write the post but nothing false.most trades remained open from 10 mins to 8 hours.
  • #206
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:43am Apr 1, 2012 10:43am
Quoting Custos
I actually would prefer the trade explorer. Kinda difficult to fake the trades that are recorded in there. Although there are for sure ways to fake that too.
That method that I posted above is "fake free". If somebody goes calling his trades in real time and the trades are not scalps it is logically impossible to be a fake.

Thats why you don't see it around.
  • #207
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:49am Apr 1, 2012 10:49am
Quoting diceman555
the problem when looking at the posts after the event will look historic without meaning,but if you were present at the moment the calls are posted ther very live,also the time is of posting is on the post so it validates its truthfulness.when i posted my calls of coarse theres a small time varance to mark my charts and write the post but nothing false.most trades remained open from 10 mins to 8 hours.
With this method you can check later with the post time stamp. Assuming that the traders is not scalping.

Scalps are more shady because of the intrinsic short time of the trade. If you count the delay for the post to be typed, time stamped, etc the con can get away with it.

actually this happened before. I wrote about it a few posts back, maybe somebody will remember the name of the scammer.
  • #208
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:50am Apr 1, 2012 10:50am
Quoting quadruplex
that method that i posted above is "fake free". If somebody goes calling his trades in real time and the trades are not scalps it is logically impossible to be a fake.

Thats why you don't see it around.
how can you fake a trade call.it has the time you posted your call.1 hour later you close it and post you closed for a profit or not,again the time is on the posting.

You guys really are negative.

Your saying nobody does it and i , in real time did just that.when you post the call the time is on the post,the futer price hasnt happened yet.
  • #209
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:54am Apr 1, 2012 10:54am
Quoting diceman555
how can you fake a trade call.it has the time you posted your call.1 hour later you close it and post you closed for a profit or not,again the time is on the posting.

You guys really are negative.

Your saying nobody does it and i , in real time did just that.when you post the call the time is on the post,the futer price hasnt happened yet.
Thats what I'm saying, read the post again.
  • #210
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:54am Apr 1, 2012 10:54am
Quoting QuadrupleX
That may shed some light about the reliability of your poll project.

If people behind a nick pretty much anonymous on the internet can't handle the pressure of posting live calls in a thread, how can they handle the REAL pressures of trading for REAL in a REAL market?

What happens is that people have the tendency to project themselves in their "nick" and by the way it starts by just "choosing a nick" or a avatar that goes with their nick etc.

Everything we do as humans tend to be means to express what we are. Thats real for clothes, our...
Modern polls use other technics to extract the truth from people other that a direct question on the subject.

That is true. Questions are asked in different ways and more then once.

Project, hide, avoid...all defensive mechanisms.


If people behind a nick pretty much anonymous on the internet can't handle the pressure of posting live calls in a thread, how can they handle the REAL pressures of trading for REAL in a REAL market?

Very easily. One is a performance in front of others, the other is private. More emotions kick in on the former. Just like someone who is practising to sing a solo, then when the day comes, and they are standing on the stage infront of thousands, their performance changes. Many times, they take something ahead of time to calm them down and help them perform better.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #211
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:57am Apr 1, 2012 10:57am
[quote=FX4Newbies;5531390]Modern polls use other technics to extract the truth from people other that a direct question on the subject.

YES ITS CALLED TORTURE
  • #212
  • Apr 1, 2012 10:59am Apr 1, 2012 10:59am
[quote=diceman555;5531394]
Quoting FX4Newbies
Modern polls use other technics to extract the truth from people other that a direct question on the subject.

YES ITS CALLED TORTURE
LOL !
  • #213
  • Apr 1, 2012 11:04am Apr 1, 2012 11:04am
[quote=diceman555;5531394]
Quoting FX4Newbies
Modern polls use other technics to extract the truth from people other that a direct question on the subject.

YES ITS CALLED TORTURE
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #214
  • Apr 1, 2012 11:04am Apr 1, 2012 11:04am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Modern polls use other technics to extract the truth from people other that a direct question on the subject.

That is true. Questions are asked in different ways and more then once.

Project, hide, avoid...all defensive mechanisms.


If people behind a nick pretty much anonymous on the internet can't handle the pressure of posting live calls in a thread, how can they handle the REAL pressures of trading for REAL in a REAL market?

Very easily. One is a performance in front of others, the other...
You are forgetting the factor "anonymity" when you sing on the stage people can see you, film you, get to know who you are, your name, where you live etc.

But again, I stated that I believe that people project their personalities on their virtual "persona" here on FF or elsewhere.

My point is that somebody unfit to handle live calls in a forum is unfit to handle pressures of the market.

Thats the way I see it.
  • #215
  • Edited 12:55pm Apr 1, 2012 11:13am | Edited 12:55pm
Just for chuckles...

I think we traders know what it is like when we are in a "short" frame of mind or trade and the market is going up. So we're hoping it comes back down to validate our trade/thinking. Well, here are some newer stats. How many of you out there are saying, "That's getting better now...more in line. Just keep going down: 43.24% more to go. Now come down to that 5% level, and I'll believe these voters and the poll sample etc.." Not poking fun at anyone here...But isn't that what we do with the market ?

By the definition given, are you a consistently profitable trader?

Yes, I am currently. 41 48.24%

No, I have never been. http://www.forexfactory.com/clear.gif 13 15.29%

Yes, I have been, but not currently. 5 5.88%

No, but I have had a profitable month. 16 18.82%

I am still trading in a demo account. 10 11.76%


The market doesn't act to give us what we want. We must line up to accept what it wants to give...when and how. Oh...the mindset of a trader.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #216
  • Edited 11:48am Apr 1, 2012 11:17am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting QuadrupleX
You are forgetting the factor "anonymity" when you sing on the stage people can see you, film you, get to know who you are, your name, where you live etc.

But again, I stated that I believe that people project their personalities on their virtual "persona" here on FF or elsewhere.

My point is that somebody unfit to handle live calls in a forum is unfit to handle pressures of the market.

Thats the way I see it.
Even if you remove the "on stage" factor. If they were behind a curtain doing voice-overs, and nobody knows its them...fear still kicks in, because the subconscious "knows" it is a performance that requires more from the person. Any time the "stakes" are higher, more "performance emotions" kick in.

Even just posting here on FF. Don't you think people have emotional responses about what may be said and done "to them" or their post. Many people are afraid to just post something for fear of...whatever. There is an attachment to even their avatar because it is an extension of them, anonymous as it might be. Not sure I'll call it projection. It is some kind of association or attachment, just like when a person hears their given name called.

My point is that somebody unfit to handle live calls in a forum is unfit to handle pressures of the market.

I actually think it might be the other way around...if they can't handle the pressures of trading live, then live calls are a no-no as it is higher up on the scale of emotional requirements. My 2 cents.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #217
  • Apr 1, 2012 11:37am Apr 1, 2012 11:37am
Quoting 60minuteman
The second reason traders are not profitable is because of their plan..

Most dont write it down, they don't have a structured process they follow on every trade, way too much is left to discretion, and they certainly don't hold their trades to TP...

Way too much indiscipline thinking their experience alone will see them through..

YOU'VE GOT TO WRITE YOUR PLAN DOWN AND FOLLOW IT EVERY TRADE

yes you are right, most traders even don't write their strategy while it is very important for beginners to write down their plan, if you write down your plan then it works like a map for you, which makes the journey easier, and then not holding a good trade till a good TP is another reason for failures.
  • #218
  • Apr 1, 2012 11:53am Apr 1, 2012 11:53am
Quoting FX4Newbies
I actually think it might be the other way around...if they can't handle the pressures of trading live, then live calls are a no-no as it is higher up on the scale of emotional requirements. My 2 cents.

FX4
Humm. You may have a point where people feel so pressured when they start making live calls that it really messes up their trades despite being profitable when they are not " in public". that's definitely a possibility

In my opinion if somebody claim to be something they should prove it. If for some reason they can't offer proof they should stay quiet.

The bottom line is if you really make money trading you don't have to prove anything because you are not after anybodies money.
  • #219
  • Edited 12:57pm Apr 1, 2012 11:59am | Edited 12:57pm
Quoting QuadrupleX
Humm. You may have a point where people feel so pressured when they start making live calls that it really messes up their trades despite being profitable when they are not " in public". that's definitely a possibility

In my opinion if somebody claim to be something they should prove it. If for some reason they can't offer proof they should stay quiet.

The bottom line is if you really make money trading you don't have to prove anything because you are not after anybodies money.
I think in order to go to another activity that requires more guts, they should find a safe/gradual way to make the transition, as failure at the "higher" emotional level might make them doubt themselves in ways that could damage the level of success they had already attained. Comes right back to knowing yourself well enough.


In my opinion if somebody claim to be something they should prove it. If for some reason they can't offer proof they should stay quiet.

Wisdom in that statement for sure. Only challenge is with this trading business, sometimes the proof is not always "guaranteed", so we must allow for a reasonable margin of error/"failure".


Humm. You may have a point where people feel so pressured when they start making live calls that it really messes up their trades despite being profitable when they are not " in public". that's definitely a possibility.

Also, there are trades they would probably take when trading "privately", but pass them up because they don't want to send a signal on it as they think the risk may be too "high" for the average trader: then they kick themselves after the fact. Some profitable traders refuse to trade OPM or put out calls for that very reason. Saw this question recently, "Why is it that the percentage return for these hedge funds etc. is so small in comparison to what individual retail traders are making, and these funds have so much money?" One of the reasons given, which I thought was excellent, had to do with the fact that they take smaller risk when trading OPM (Other People's Money). Also they watch drawdowns like a hawk, because if the client is scared and can't sleep at night, that account will surely be removed and given to another firm. It's A Heart-Mind Game all the way around.


FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #220
  • Apr 1, 2012 1:11pm Apr 1, 2012 1:11pm
Quoting FX4Newbies




Also, there are trades they would probably take when trading "privately" but pass them up because they don't want to send a signal on it as they think the risk may be too "high" for the average trader: then they kick themselves after the fact.
I see all trades as a "risk", I like more the word probability but anyways. So if somebody sees a bigger "risk" I would consider that person a newbie. I see a pro as somebody that sees risk (probability) or no trade anything beyond that is IMHO lack of experience.

And the guy that kicks himself after the fact for not taking a trade or not making public a call is a gambler still not ready to be consistent or even trade at all.




Quote
Some profitable traders refuse to trade OPM or put out calls for that very reason. Saw this question recently, "Why is it that the percentage return for these hedge funds etc. is so small in comparison to what individual retail traders are making, and these funds have so much money?" One of the reasons given, which I thought was excellent, had to do with the fact that they take smaller risk when trading OPM (Other People's Money). Also they watch drawdowns like a hawk, because if the client is scared and can't sleep at night, that account will...

I see it a little different.

First big institutions have problems to get in the market. And once they are in, they have a problems to get out.

To get in, they have to do it very carefully sometimes in small chunks sometimes in big positions in order to:

1- not let the market know they are getting in
or
2- move the market

All according to their strategy.

Than once they are successfully in, they have to get out the same way again accordingly to their strategy.

Against them they have liquidity issues, other big players, etc that can mess up their plans.

It is easy to spot big institutions getting screwed when you see a small rally or deep, then price stalls and gaps down/up to the price where it rallied. It means that a big fish moved the market but the market did not follow.

About the relative "small" percentage big institutions make in comparison to retail traders, I believe it is due to the fact that retailers lie and get away with it. Institutions can also lie, but they get cot shortly after, because they are accountable to their costumers.
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