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  • #25,301
  • Mar 31, 2012 9:49am Mar 31, 2012 9:49am
Quote
Nice with the right calculations you can setup a nice pair trade on it if you calculate the right lotsizes you will have a market neutral possition on it and will profit when the correlation goes in sync again. I also everlayed nzd i preffer that 1 better but not sure yet.

But i think it is a decent pair trade especially last scenario you pointed out if the es would crash. You can make a fast nice return on that trade. and the beauty is you dont have to guess direction. so picking tops or whatever you just trade the spread. By buying the underperformer and shorting the outperformer. The risk is taht they still bot can crash but the es would just go faster to catchup the broken correlation and that your profit the most beatifull scenario would be if they both trade together..


thanks for that input ingmar..........it is not something i really have much experience with but have started to think about it lately........i started out trading mini futures for oil and natural gas and have seen that strategy employed shorting oil and buying NG, but again i pretty much was always long or short one or the other but never both.

always a first time, right.

any thoughts on the Yen and CHF crossed against the US dollar?.........i am looking at it from the point of view that if the dollar starts to pick up yield (the rates for Treasuries start to rise) the Yen and Swiss can probably get hammered (also picking up a few articles lately about a unilateral devaluation of the Yen by the Japanese - the Swiss did it so never say never i guess)

i am wondering about the CAD too as it hasn't really moved one way or the other against the dollar especially as compared to the AUD and NZD, but the charts look like solid support under the recent lows.
  • #25,302
  • Edited 1:11pm Mar 31, 2012 12:50pm | Edited 1:11pm
.......Interesting views but much complicated for my small mind, I will keep trying to guees wish way the 30M chart will break on sunday and that way I have more time in sanity areas of my damaged mind to mix with the malvec grapes, unless of course fxhermit send me some of the good stuff.......

........don't ever forget your music......

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The Chonchy
  • #25,303
  • Mar 31, 2012 1:25pm Mar 31, 2012 1:25pm
no worries Chonchy........my mind shrank more last night after that litre of vin.......once i start it is like a truck with no brakes to stop until it is all gone. c'est la vie.

i am off it for a month........lets see how long that promise lasts
  • #25,304
  • Mar 31, 2012 1:27pm Mar 31, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting roro53
no worries Chonchy........my mind shrank more last night after that litre of vin.......once i start it is like a truck with no brakes to stop until it is all gone. c'est la vie.
what is your poison? what do you like?
.....I like malvecs, argentina mendoza valley......
The Chonchy
  • #25,305
  • Mar 31, 2012 1:30pm Mar 31, 2012 1:30pm
......I went last night to this place, had a couple of spanish dry riojas, nothing big, too expensive this place, but it was a nice atmosfiere.......a band place jazz on fridays ont he other place by the soxo, so I'm palning to go on friday, love jazz, tinto and tapas........

http://tapasytintos.com/
The Chonchy
  • #25,306
  • Edited 1:56pm Mar 31, 2012 1:40pm | Edited 1:56pm
.........fxhermit, where are you?

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........nice........

http://exnihilovineyards.com/merlot2008.php
The Chonchy
  • #25,307
  • Mar 31, 2012 1:42pm Mar 31, 2012 1:42pm
.........I also want to hit this place soon, is next to the one we went yesterday, it looks nice from the outside, also in spaniola way in south beach........I love ceviches from peru........

http://cevichery.com/wp/
The Chonchy
  • #25,308
  • Mar 31, 2012 1:43pm Mar 31, 2012 1:43pm
Quoting Turtle
DAMM......I got a flyer....ahhh sh-t!!!

HOLLA

P.S. Feels So Close......by Calvin Harris is hot!





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  1. Return home

........Lo mas pegao aqui Turtle, this is the latest here...........

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The Chonchy
  • #25,309
  • Mar 31, 2012 2:25pm Mar 31, 2012 2:25pm
Quoting roro53
thanks for that input ingmar..........it is not something i really have much experience with but have started to think about it lately........i started out trading mini futures for oil and natural gas and have seen that strategy employed shorting oil and buying NG, but again i pretty much was always long or short one or the other but never both.

always a first time, right.

any thoughts on the Yen and CHF crossed against the US dollar?.........i am looking at it from the point of view that if the dollar starts to pick up yield (the rates...

It bassically is statistical arbitrage non directionial method so no guesing which way the market goes. Lot of hedgefunds use this 1 of the best performers jim simmons also use this
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Mostly in stocks ray dalio also but he is also more macro.
Currently with the easing and if they contineu i see usdjpy going to 90 longerterm. Currently in this enviroment how i see it is asset inflation on a macro perspective here is a good vid about the current system and it flaws especially asset inflation creates a investment boom with keeping rates low 0% http://vimeo.com/36566257. with this enviroment people look mostly for yields so aud and nzd could pick up but wanna see it bit more bottoming here aud is trading aprox to th 200 ma right now. but whe had recently a hit because this china talk came back again a bit. I dont see the fed raise rates till 2014 bernanke stated that a couple of time whe are in the make of the greatest bubble all time last time that happened was pretty nasty. Check nq what 13 consective closes in 13 weeks just sick. and tops will be blowoff tops top pickers then when peirces blows all the stops. If whe fall from here is see medium term top. Not the top imo the central banks will use all force the fed has still qe and they will use it if needed if the market drops lets say 10% buy it it with both hands es dumbs 600 points they will do qe no doubt about that.
Monday whe have mutual fund moron day so woild be intresting where flows go first quarter check the performance on finviz this week and see which 1 perform well they good give probally the best returns this month follow the hot money lol.

Also will facebook come to nyse etc right now apple is hype if facebook comes in the dow where will dow go.


I dont like the usd crosses for arbitrage if that was your question a verry good 1 is the 10 and 5 year treasuries. search on you tube the appleinvestor he has great vids on pairtrading. The beauty of it it is non directionial so no guessing where the market might go.
For example some can also short nq long es on right sizes because es is lagging nq so if collapse coem nq will drop way harder then es. es lagging big nq right now with this apple hype.

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Now wallstreet is in greed mode imo all pilling the qustion is will whe get our correction or go straight through this month if so i will be seller in may for sure.
  • #25,310
  • Mar 31, 2012 2:26pm Mar 31, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting chonchy
.......Interesting views but much complicated for my small mind, I will keep trying to guees wish way the 30M chart will break on sunday and that way I have more time in sanity areas of my damaged mind to mix with the malvec grapes, unless of course fxhermit send me some of the good stuff.......

........don't ever forget your music......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zB2TfFH5j4
Isnt that hard Chongy look up statistical arbitrage or pair trading you dont have to gues directionial trading just short the overperformer and long the underperformer search the appleinvestor on youtube he has some good vids on it amigo.
  • #25,311
  • Mar 31, 2012 2:27pm Mar 31, 2012 2:27pm
used to drink pinot noir a lot, then valpolicella, and fench italian california chile reds........decent ones

i switched over to white again lately ......lighter and lower alc content and i put ice cubes and sip away the night......white with ice not so hard on the body and brain next day as the reds kind of kill me more and more.........once i start i like to run until it is empty.
  • #25,312
  • Mar 31, 2012 2:40pm Mar 31, 2012 2:40pm
.........Ray Dalio have one of those smikester's hair cuts, I think........

........I love the way the guy think tho.....

.........Agree on no way of knowing were the market is going most of the time, break outs, impulsive candles, s/r fxhermit's way, I think is the way to go, my two cents.....
The Chonchy
  • #25,313
  • Mar 31, 2012 2:47pm Mar 31, 2012 2:47pm
Quoting roro53
used to drink pinot noir a lot, then valpolicella, and fench italian california chile reds........decent ones

i switched over to white again lately ......lighter and lower alc content and i put ice cubes and sip away the night......white with ice not so hard on the body and brain next day as the reds kind of kill me more and more.........once i start i like to run until it is empty.
.........I follow you understand, a friend of mine, tough me of the ice trick, is good to drink economic wine with ice, not shep wine but economic......
The Chonchy
  • #25,314
  • Mar 31, 2012 2:51pm Mar 31, 2012 2:51pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Isnt that hard Chongy look up statistical arbitrage or pair trading you dont have to gues directionial trading just short the overperformer and long the underperformer search the appleinvestor on youtube he has some good vids on it amigo.
......I read some of it in Mickel Milking book, Then of Thiefs, Ivan Boesqui or some like that was his name, was very good on it, but he end up as a federal witnnes protection programer for inside info, apparently he wasen't doing that good on it, but I will look it up in youtube for sure amigo......
The Chonchy
  • #25,315
  • Edited 3:13pm Mar 31, 2012 2:59pm | Edited 3:13pm
Quoting chonchy
......I read some of it in Mickel Milking book, Then of Thiefs, Ivan Boesqui or some like that was his name, was very good on it, but he end up as a federal witnnes protection programer for inside info, apparently he wasen't doing that good on it, but I will look it up in youtube for sure amigo......
Its worth it my friend
  • #25,316
  • Edited 3:47pm Mar 31, 2012 3:27pm | Edited 3:47pm
Quote
don't like to use usd crosses for arbitrage if that was your question...a very good one is 5 and 10 yr Treasuries

can also short nq long es on right sizes because es is lagging nq so if collapse comes nq will drop way harder then es. es lagging big nq right now with this apple hype.
that was the question and thanks for the insights ingmar. nice trade idea for the nq/es.

here is a link to a Canadian i like to read espescially to get a handle on the bond markets.

http://www.tfmarketadvisors.com/

the blog from today looks at base cases for the following 3 questions;

1 - how strong is the US ec?

2 - is the next round of European debt crisis already here?

3 - how will China land?

another writer i look to is Lee Adler. Adler has called this market pretty much spot on postulating back in december that US equity markets were likely to benefit from a rotation out of EZ into NA. like you he thinks this marget goes higher into may where it tops but also maybe that the 1410/25 is an intermediate top.

here is Adler's take on the upcoming NFP working off of the recent Unemployment Claims......"None of the data tells us how many jobs the economy is adding, but the real time withholding tax data, adjusted for inflation tells us, “Not many,” in fact, none.

The 4 week moving average of the annual percentage change in withholding tax collections is virtually zero, suggesting that the economy hasn’t added any jobs since this time last year. It’s probably a good bet that the March payrolls data to be released a week from Friday will disappoint."

Adler concludes with this......."While the media wallows and flails in the clearly unreliable seasonally adjusted nonsense, I think the actual data tells a reasonably clear story that seems consistent with a wide range of data that I track, as well as simple empirical observation of the real world.

Things are marginally improved today. We can debate whether the forces driving that improvement are sustainable (they’re not), and we also know that a growing parallel universe is developing with increasing numbers of people who have fallen through the cracks.

But the relative improvement, however slight, is real, and that’s all that matters to buyers of equities.

As long as these trends hold their own, the stock market should do so as well."

link;http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2012/0...t-claims-data/


PS.... ingmar..............i did all right shorting the NQ last summer when the early selling started and the NQ was selling off first i was picking off some nice range trades, but the few times i tried to short it since january i got bitch slapped everytime except once and that was last week when i sold it and took some points but was so scared it would come back and bite me in the ass again i almost could not wait to dump it.......gotta have a sense of humor to be in this business, right.
  • #25,317
  • Mar 31, 2012 3:36pm Mar 31, 2012 3:36pm
Chonchy..........i'd love to open a bottle and sip tonight but the getting up for European opens is work especially since the Europeans went to DST last week.....and if i drink it slows me down and makes me dull and i am already kind of dull so need every edge i can get and i like to be rested for the marathon hrs during the week so will make the sacrifice and overload later at the end of march for a big dip.
  • #25,318
  • Mar 31, 2012 4:31pm Mar 31, 2012 4:31pm
Quoting roro53
that was the question and thanks for the insights ingmar. nice trade idea for the nq/es.

here is a link to a Canadian i like to read espescially to get a handle on the bond markets.

http://www.tfmarketadvisors.com/

the blog from today looks at base cases for the following 3 questions;

1 - how strong is the US ec?

2 - is the next round of European debt crisis already here?

3 - how will China land?

another writer i look to is Lee Adler. Adler has called this market pretty much spot on postulating back in december...

Thanks for the link i always like new gems currently with the whole macro enviroment i can understand why people are shorting it because it makes no sense in terms of valua where some things are trading but with this asset inflation thing going on i dont think it matters greed and fear. I know sosros quoting it in 1 of his books buy bubbles the hardest thing when buying a bubble is the timing to get out because bubbles tend to be verry violent when they pop.

Here some lectures of him love his work to listen to
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Also if you look at charts how many times it happens and what the mean flaw is of this unregullated markets especially in commodities you see it. Thats why i use that quote buy when there is blood in the streets sell the sound of the trumpets. It is basically true will it forever stay dont know but when the main panic was it was the best time to buy. myself i have a better sense for timing buys then top picking not my favorite thing. Basically when there is ultimate fear media tv etc and you get threads on forexfactory end of the world euro is doomed usd is doomed whatever then do the opposite seems to work well. So maybe whe will soon see those threads dow jones to 20.000 lol or in the papers. Then maybe time for the top but like i sayed i am not good in top picking people tend to always be more pessimistic then optimistic especially in trading.

But with all this central banks behind i am not gonna trade against it and rather buy bubbles and try to get out on time. Also retail is not in this market so when they all go in ussualy also time to get out verry nasty way of looking at it but hard truth ussually when they start buying whe close to the top.

Currencies tend to behave more on mna flows valuation capital flows etc imo. For example the gbp had pretty good performance even they eased because with there triple aaa rating they bought gilts so needed gbp. Allwell my believe is that they will comw with another round of easing eventually what will devalua the gbp so keep eyes on it might be good shorts then in the gbp pairs for a longerterm trade in terms of a macro perspective.

Also look at big deals be done in this market most go by cash if big company buys something in canada for example and it is gonna be a big billion deal cad demand will come so they need cad. Also the end of the month cad has good inflows with oil deals etc havent studied it yet but i think shorts in the cad end of the month with rollovers in oil and deals be done might not be so bad.
Currencies seem lately to trade verry well on this flows.

http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/Englis...n/calendar.pdf
http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/Englis...iews120330.pdf
  • #25,319
  • Mar 31, 2012 5:04pm Mar 31, 2012 5:04pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Its worth it my friend
.......I will ingmarforex, I will, thanks a lot for the advise, god bless.....
The Chonchy
  • #25,320
  • Mar 31, 2012 6:44pm Mar 31, 2012 6:44pm
big pop in China's PMI......should be risk positive for the open tomorrow.
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