Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

..........and now we got the trikket also......

http://www.trikke.com/TESTground/Image1.jpg

.........Here you go smikester in color, the corona comercial, lol.......

.......fastes electric car, I don't have it for delivery yet but I'm working on it...........

http://coolestgadgetsandgizmos.com/w...ectric-car.jpg

..........there are some wird electric things out there........

http://gadgetsmarket.com/wp-content/...ic-scooter.jpg

http://www.greenlaunches.com/entry_i...ic-scooter.jpg

Is a Swift Market Reversal Coming by Mid-April?




http://sm1.eastmanpub.com/img/1/iwa0...LOGO_FINAL.jpghttp://sm1.eastmanpub.com/img/1/iwa0...der-600x61.gif

By: William James
Editor, Insider Wealth Alert

The bulls are firmly in control.
But for how much longer?
Dennis Slothower – editor of Marketwatch.com’s “Letter of the Year” for 2011 – last night sent an urgent message to his paid Stealth S tocks Daily Alert subscribers.
Dennis’ message warned about the potential for a coming “Oil Shock” recession – and he also revealed why this bull market may be history inside of three weeks.
I’ve arranged to share Dennis’ message with you – free of charge – below.
Please take a moment to read this important information.
Good investing,

Warning: Oil Shock Recession Growing
Even More Likely

http://sm1.eastmanpub.com/img/1/iwa0...der-600x31.gif By Dennis Slothower
Editor, Stealth Stocks Daily Alert

Stocks rallied strongly again on Monday as Ben Bernanke’s promised again in speech more monetary accommodation to get the economy growing faster and improve unemployment.
The market took this as a sign the Fed is still committed to pumping up the equities and commodity markets, with a strong hint that QE3 was still on the bur ners – perhaps as soon as April, probably to stave off the traditional April sell off.

National Association for Business Economics spring conference, Bernanke argued that in spite of three months of job improvement, the jobs market is too weak and therefore, the Fed will continue its monetary easing policies to improve unemployment and get the economy to grow faster.
In truth, we should expect exactly the opposite with record high gasoline prices.
But the market reacted about how you might expect on any talk of more liquidity from the Fed. The US dollar fell sharply on his comment s and commodities soared, sending the stock market up sharply but also driving up gasoline prices to $3.90 a gallon for regular on a national basis. After Bernanke’s near promise of more easy money, I can’t see why we won’t see $4 a gallon and higher by Easter/Passover – perhaps sooner than that.


It’s mind boggling to hear that the average price for gasoline across the 27 European nations just broke above USD $10/gallon.
You can just imagine what this is going to do to food prices this summer and, more importantly, what soaring gasoline prices might have done to corporate earnings in the first quarter, now fast approaching.
For example, take a look at the technology sector over the last year with Apple computer’s earnings and without Apple’s earnings in the mix.
http://sm.eastmanpub.com/img/org_1/4403/IWA032712.png
Stunning isn’t it?
It was a year ago when I warned that an oil shock recession was before us and based on this chart, earnings have been deteriorating since crude oil prices first exceeded 5.5% of the GDP. Now just imagine what companies earnings are going to do after an 85 cent increase in gasoline prices in the first quarter.
This should all come home to roost by about mid-April, when fir st quarter earnings are released.

What’s Next for U.S. Stocks

Technically, the market remains in bull market territory. Prices continue to trend above the 50-day simple moving averages for the S&P 500 with the majority of S&P 500 stocks (within the index) still trading well above their 200-day moving averages.
http://sm1.eastmanpub.com/img/1/iwa0...der-600x31.gif

you are a pro with the photos and music videos, Chonchy.

read the market reversal/Oil shock article you posted and a lot of seasoned pros who i read are expressing the same degree of caution about how far this thing can run and for how much longer and when the turn comes it may be violent.

european equity indexes are already off significantly (Italy's ITA40 form17,100 to 15,800 - closed at just under 16,000 today so off almost 6.5% in just over a week)(Spain's IBEX is off more) from the highs just post LTRO 2 and the sign off on the Greek bond debacle where the essence of that deal was not so much the writedowns but a lot more about the retroactive revisions to bond contracts.

a very wide divergence between the AUD/USD and the S&P so something there has to give ......either the AUD rallies or the S&P corrects down.

China is in the throws of an inside the politburo political struggle so who knows what comes out the other end of that

the bernanke bluff (you have to know that press conference was a plant) to the markets last monday may very well have been a desperation play to buy time, but the 'promises' come and go from FOMC meeting-to-meeting dating back to last september and have been shored up by the ECB's LTROs in between so it seems logical to wonder about how many more times the FED can infer QE without actually bringing it.

earnings were nothing to write home about last Q and Apple is a country and NFP looks to disappoint next week so no doubt there is probably a market PR prozac deal in the works for a timely release........bridge to nowhere called hope, but it has worked so far.

some of the smarter people think the market can run up to 1450 or 1500 and the time targets are mid may.........the other side of it is a pullback of 2.5 to 5%, and that really is probably the optimistic version given the recent sell offs in not only Europe but also China.

Roubini was out today touting a Euro at par with the USD........China will not want that given Europe is its largest trading partner..........if Euro is par then cash is king....(on that note what is your call for the Swiss?)

the 'firewall' announced today is a farce described by P Tchir as a million dollar bet with a 7 yr old - in other words if you made that bet with your child would you really ever expect to be paid?.........Italy and Spain are contributing funds to a bailout mechanism that the 2 countries would also need to borrow from..........???........it is all spin..........

Chonchy, i promise to lend you money i do not admittedly have, but i am nice to want to lend it nonetheless and after i have loaned you that monopoly money that really does not exist i promise to lend back money to myself so i can be save my (ass) banks too

if the central banks can pull it off for another round then maybe there is 1450 or 1500 for the S&P.....if so, then the European indexes rally back higher too.

watching the CAD and it looks like it is getting ready to to breakout up over parity.........it has experienced nothing close to the selling that the AUD and NZD have seen so far.

i think there are a limited number of opportunities for an attack against Iran......the USS Enterprize is slated to reach the Persian Gulf (proximity) within several days so a 3rd carrier strike force will then be deployed and on station

informed estimates speculate the Iranians have probably several thousand Sunburn ship killer missiles - defensible by a carrier maybe. defensible by an oil tanker, NO..where the US places the carriers are probably a tell.......Oxford Research from 2005 assessed the implications of an American/Israeli attack.........nothing good..........nothing. the comparison was along the lines of an attack against NK

who knows, maybe the wizard at Marriner S Eccles has the secret atomic money bomb and is authorized by JP Diamon to make a surprise drop........maybe the BOJ has one too and a unilateral devaluation is about to be announced over a weekend........it worked for the SNB.

Chonchy...........i definitely pick the 'Sexy MF' as my favorite. loved it.

that was really TOPS for me, man........thanks, seriously. you have great taste in art and people.

liked Bethoven too!......it was all good. the girl with the grinder sparks in all the right places...amazing

i'll show my korean wife tomorrow

just killing off the last of a bottle of wine. had one thurs night too so am a bit tired but the good news is i am fasting for the next month. need to keep up to all that is probably coming down the pike and work the European sessions too.......not young like i used to be. as my pal from NZ likes to say.......cheers mate.

.........cheers roro..........

.........I just came from here, had a nice couple of bottles of spanish wine, nothing fancy, the birthday of a friend of my wife, we had a good one, will show some pics tomorrow, too tired now, good night.........

http://cbk3.google.com/cbk?output=th...77&w=300&h=118

http://www.google.com/maps?layer=c&z...=0CA8Q2hQoADAA

........As the franc goes, I see that is down from 30M to the 4H chart, now daily is up because is still driving over the 200 ema and that is a signal that it could still go up, it could what we call slide, it could slide up and let everybody hanging, that is why I don't like to make those long calls, I rather look for the daily breakes on the 30M chart, hope it helps........sorry not give you more roro, good night........

DAMM......I got a flyer....ahhh sh-t!!!

HOLLA

P.S. Feels So Close......by Calvin Harris is hot!





http://sphotos.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-...02968812_n.jpg

A very interesting read roro and most of it tallies with my views - epecially in my darker moments. I just wondered if you have a chart of the divergence between S&P and AUD/USD because I only have Dow/Aud/Usd and in 2008 that divergence had been building for 3 years whereas I see it now but only on the weekly. Technically (MACD) and fundamentally there is a current divergence on equity prices and I agree that there will probably be a correction in the near future (weekly and monthly charts).

Interesting times indeed but to be honest I still remain optimistic. A world where peak oil has been reached and manufacturing production has also peaked is going to be an interesting model given the last 200+ years of industrial revolution growth. Your comment of lending Chonchy non existent money and then lending it to yourself brings to mind the paradigm of a small factory I saw once where the owner called in once a day to check the machinery for 10 minutes. Or it might have been an hour or two - it doesn't matter. The question I asked myself was this. If all factories and production become like this, who will have money to pay for the products? It was ever the same, really, with peasants and labourers producing the "wealth" instead of machinery.

The next bit is very difficult because I can not foretell the future but we are now living in a world where most countries have the ability to feed and house their poulations and keep them in a state of health never dreamed of 200 years ago. Poverty is being defined as not owning a DVD player. I am aware that in some countries fresh drinking water and sanitation is not available to most of the population, but my point is that this is becoming increasingly rare. So it should, since we in the developed countries have the power to lend ourselves money and eradicate that altogether for them.

I agree that there is only a certain amount of money one can lend to oneself before certain things start to happen. I think the banks and institutions and now governments have already done that and we are waiting for the outcome. Your idea of "A secret atomic money bomb" is a really good idea! Perhaps close those banks which feel the need to turn over ever increasing amounts of money at the expense of the rest of commerce. The banks and institutions seem to have lost their way in regard to why they actually exist. They would do well to look at history and see the mutual companies from which they grew. Maybe then, they would see that they have now become dinosaurs.

Sorry to bother you Sir, but for some reason I still cant see the option to send you a PM.
Perhaps you can send me an email at [email protected]....?
Thanks.

Well, I'm a bit surprised you can't send Chonchy a pm. if you click on his name at the top of any of his posts, it will take you to his profile. There, you will find an option to pm. It is in the bottom left hand corner.

Because Chonchy has so many buddies, it is off the screen, so you may have to scroll down to find the bottom left hand corner.

I tried like 10 times, reloaded his profile page.
Still do not see the option.
On the other hand, maybe Ill have to be on his buddy list to be able to send him a PM.

enjoyed the read, smikester and your take on things. i like the view you have about poverty being 'relative' today because of the technology readily available to provide literally the entire world with the necessities of life.

i found the chart and copied it so lets hope it pastes here all right. also copied the link. it is a Jeremy Wagner work from yesterday at DailyFX.com........i have also seen a very similar chart posted by John Kicklighter.

i have an account with FXCM UK which allows me access to the European equity indexes i refer to.......CFD's are a boon to small traders like myself partly because of the access and also lot sizes that allow scaling as compared to trading futures (ie., mini NYMEX crude minimum 500 barrels and typically much higher margins/same for currency futures). CFDs are not permitted to US domiciled traders........CMC also offers CFDs (from oil and gasoline to JGBs/US Treasuries and sugar/cocoa and the spectrum of commodities for someone so inclined) under Canadian rules (higher margins) however i found the platform is not really very well designed and the chart pkg is weak.

i guess i am full of it when it comes to discussions around trading and geopolitical and economic issues but it is an interest i have since around the same time i discovered my affinity for pin ups so suppose it is one of those things.

i started seriously trading Spain's IBEX last summer (ESP35) and was shorting it aggressively on almost every rally as i followed the fundamentals and it just did not add up and looked like the weak link in the chain at the time from my perspective. i remember reading an article by a pro around the time who pointed out that Italy's ITA was a leading indicator of market direction and at the time i believe it was selling before the US indexes started to turn down. i also remember around that time that i started to short the NASDAQ100 before the Dow and S&P as it also started to turn down first.........

i keep a close eye on the NAS100. don't know if the pattern gets repeated this time but the European indexes are definitely off the recent tops as is the AUD so who knows? maybe the S&P and Dow and RUT are all immune to selling with the FED in the shadows......doubt it though unless the FED drops its money bomb soon



From J Wagner, Mar 30, 3:15 PM ET;

http://chart.ly/jwmeghx


http://chart.ly/uploads/large_jwmeghx.png?1333134906

OK sorry you clearly know what you are doing.

Thanks for the chart and the link. That chart is an M15 or lower! I was looking at daily and weekly. It just shows how careful you have to be in these discussions.

i see your point......meaning comes from context, right? ....i think the other one was on a longer time frame, but cannot find it

Nice with the right calculations you can setup a nice pair trade on it if you calculate the right lotsizes you will have a market neutral possition on it and will profit when the correlation goes in sync again. I also everlayed nzd i preffer that 1 better but not sure yet.

But i think it is a decent pair trade especially last scenario you pointed out if the es would crash. You can make a fast nice return on that trade. and the beauty is you dont have to guess direction. so picking tops or whatever you just trade the spread. By buying the underperformer and shorting the outperformer. The risk is taht they still bot can crash but the es would just go faster to catchup the broken correlation and that your profit the most beatifull scenario would be if they both trade together..