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Are you a consistently profitable trader?

  • #141
  • Mar 30, 2012 6:51am Mar 30, 2012 6:51am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Wonderful!!!! Seems like you have your method down ! A very smart/common sense approach to trading.

If I may ask, what is the average hold time on your trades to achieve your 20 pips? Do you have any time constraints on your trading, meaning, is your time flexible enough to hold/watch as long as needed? Do you sit there and watch the trade as it progresses or do you just let it rip: set it and forget it? Do you use Take Profit orders?

All important things to consider as they can impact how a trade turns out...profitability.

Thanks...
95% of the time I make my 20 pips before the close of the 4H 9pm(EST) candle. What I do is I put a OCO (One-Cancels-the-Other) order if again it it hits HOD I go long if it hits LOD I go short.

And I check up on it ever 1-2hours. Just to make sure I am in a trade.
  • #142
  • Edited Mar 31, 2012 1:34am Mar 30, 2012 8:26am | Edited Mar 31, 2012 1:34am
Quoting ultramoe
95% of the time I make my 20 pips before the close of the 4H 9pm(EST) candle. What I do is I put a OCO (One-Cancels-the-Other) order if again it it hits HOD I go long if it hits LOD I go short.

And I check up on it ever 1-2hours. Just to make sure I am in a trade.
Great!!! I hope that helps some traders who are having a hard time making 20 pips a day. I think one of the hardest things for traders to do is to let the trade mature...give it a chance to prove itself. Should have a price though when a trader determines that the trade is no longer valid should it not perform as "expected". Can't say how much not giving the trade enough time to prove itself has affected a trader's profitability. Also, not having a price point where the trade is no longer valid has probably ruined many accounts.

Thanks again,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #143
  • Edited 10:03am Mar 30, 2012 8:46am | Edited 10:03am
Just as a heads up...

Tomorrow, March 31st at midnight EST or thereabouts, I plan to post the poll results up to that time. The poll will continue. We'll see how things go from there, as I plan to post the results month by month.

Of course, the poll is not going to be an exact science but I think the results should be very interesting. If you take the poll, please, just tell the truth...I have no clue who said what and I think the results could help us all.

Thanks again,

FX4

P.S. I presume traders will be honest, especially since there is no direct benefit for anyone to be tempted to be dishonest...but some may think otherwise about what traders might or might not do for many reasons.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #144
  • Mar 30, 2012 10:03am Mar 30, 2012 10:03am
Quoting ultramoe
Hi all,

I'll get to the point right away. I don't use any indicator at all, all what I use is a 4H EUR/USD chart.

The way I make my 20 Pips a day is I start with the 5pm(EST) candle stick and let it close. The next candle after the close of the 4hour 5pm(EST) candle stick which starts at 9pm(EST) will be my entry candle.

The way I enter long or short. If the 9pm(EST) candle breaks the previous High 4H candle I go long for 20 pips. If the candle breaks the previous Low 4H candle I go short for 20 pips.

STOP LOSS IS VICE VERSA:

Long:...

First let me say that I respect ANYBODY that follow a system. If you really have the discipline to trade what you described over and over without deviating from it IMHO you are a pro.

That said let me just point to the fact that your system has a risk a lot bigger than the 20 pips reward which I find unacceptable. That's my opinion of course.

I prefer to have a lower winning ratio rather than endure big draw downs.

I don't like big draw downs
  • #145
  • Mar 30, 2012 10:15am Mar 30, 2012 10:15am
I never profit on consistent manner
  • #146
  • Mar 30, 2012 10:31am Mar 30, 2012 10:31am
Quoting QuadrupleX
First let me say that I respect ANYBODY that follow a system. If you really have the discipline to trade what you described over and over without deviating from it IMHO you are a pro.

That said let me just point to the fact that your system has a risk a lot bigger than the 20 pips reward which I find unacceptable. That's my opinion of course.

I prefer to have a lower winning ratio rather than endure big draw downs.

I don't like big draw downs
Hey thanks for sharing your comments with me.

The risk might be high, that I will never deny. However that is why I do the reversal for Break-even, and second of all I use to have this problem where when I first started to trade and would do back testing and find one I mean 1 losing day lol, I would discard the trading idea and will never continue with you. But after years of trading, I realized the only way you can possibly know if a system works or not you have to give it at least 1 month.

From March 1st till today, following my system and reversals and including losses.

Total Wins : 14 (280 Pips)
Total loss : 2 (-65 pips)
Total Break-Even: 6 (0 pips)

Total pips for Month of March: 215
  • #147
  • Mar 30, 2012 10:32am Mar 30, 2012 10:32am
Quoting Adv
I never profit on consistent manner
What do you think is/are the reason(s) behind that result? How long have you been trading FX? Have you ever traded Live or are you just referring to Demo?

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #148
  • Mar 30, 2012 10:45am Mar 30, 2012 10:45am
The same reason why focus groups are dishonest. If the answer to a question is socially unacceptable or questionable, you won't give the interviewer your true opinion. It's natural self-protection.

For example if you think that hitting your wife or treating blacks like second class citizens is perfectly okay, you still very likely won't mention it in the interview process, cause it is socially unacceptable

Responding that you are a failure is as well socially unacceptable / questionable for many. If you are from a background where all around you have great jobs, you don't wanna admit that you are the one black sheep / a failure, no matter if the poll is anonymous or not. Again it's a self-protection mechanism.

That's the reason why such polls will not reflect reality, in my opinion.
Quoting FX4Newbies
Just as a heads up...

Tomorrow, March 31st at midnight EST or thereabouts, I plan to post the poll results up to that time. The poll will continue. We'll see how things go from there, as I plan to post the results month by month.

Of course, the poll is not going to be an exact science but I think the results should be very interesting. If you take the poll, please, just tell the truth...I have no clue who said what and I think the results could help us all.

Thanks again,

FX4

P.S. I presume traders will be honest, especially since...
  • #149
  • Edited Mar 31, 2012 1:37am Mar 30, 2012 10:49am | Edited Mar 31, 2012 1:37am
Quoting Custos
The same reason why focus groups are dishonest. If the answer to a question is socially unacceptable or questionable, you won't give the interviewer your true opinion. It's natural self-protection.

For example if you think that hitting your wife or treating blacks like second class citizens is perfectly okay, you still very likely won't mention it in the interview process, cause it is socially unacceptable

Responding that you are a failure is as well socially unacceptable / questionable for many. If you are from a background where all around you...
Good points Custos. Someone also made a similar point earlier. Thanks. Will still work with it and see what we get.

On second thought, if people stay in that mode and never examine themselves, which is what these focus groups and questionnaires are supposed to do...help people examine themselves and come up with improvements (better solutions and situations), then they just live in a comfortable lie going nowhere for real in life. How sad. If a trader can't be honest with themselves about where they are, how will they ever improve?

As they say, "Confession is good for the soul." It can be even better in a "safe" environment where "fixing the problem" can take place. It actually does something for the person I think...not so much necessarily for the person hearing the confession (although it can, depending on the situation).

Thanks again,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #150
  • Edited 12:46pm Mar 30, 2012 12:27pm | Edited 12:46pm
Quoting QuadrupleX
First let me say that I respect ANYBODY that follow a system. If you really have the discipline to trade what you described over and over without deviating from it IMHO you are a pro.
QuadrupleX,

Being disciplined enough to follow rules seems to be an issue for humankind. How do you think traders can get a better handle on that? Not only is there a challenge following other people's rules, but following their own trading rules. This could be one of the missing ingredients in being consistently profitable.

What's with that? Any ideas?

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #151
  • Mar 30, 2012 12:47pm Mar 30, 2012 12:47pm
Quoting ultramoe
Hey thanks for sharing your comments with me.

The risk might be high, that I will never deny. However that is why I do the reversal for Break-even, and second of all I use to have this problem where when I first started to trade and would do back testing and find one I mean 1 losing day lol, I would discard the trading idea and will never continue with you. But after years of trading, I realized the only way you can possibly know if a system works or not you have to give it at least 1 month.

From March 1st till today, following my system...
You are using this system for how long?
  • #152
  • Mar 30, 2012 12:58pm Mar 30, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
QuadrupleX,

Being disciplined enough to follow rules seems to be an issue for humankind. How do you think traders can get a better handle on that? Not only is there a challenge following other people's rules, but following their own trading rules. This could be one of the missing ingredients in being consistently profitable.

What's with that? Any ideas?

FX4
Specifics.

When you have a specific, well define entry/exit trigger, it makes a lot more easier to exercise your discipline.

I had 2 losses last year that were bigger than they should. And I can trace them back to the violation of my specific trigger.

After you understand the strengths/weaknesses of your system is just a matter of screen time before you develop the discipline necessary to be consistent.
  • #153
  • Edited Mar 31, 2012 1:39am Mar 30, 2012 1:04pm | Edited Mar 31, 2012 1:39am
Quoting QuadrupleX
You are using this system for how long?
I'm expect there will be a reply, but this is what has been said thus far:

5. How long have you been trading and trading this particular way?

Answer: I started doing it with stocks however on the first 30min candle and not the 4H. I started doing this with Forex or EUR/USD since last year. (Post 127)


However that is why I do the reversal for Break-even, and second of all I use to have this problem where when I first started to trade and would do back testing and find one I mean 1 losing day lol, I would discard the trading idea and will never continue with you. But after years of trading... (Post 146).

Until a reply comes in...

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #154
  • Edited Mar 31, 2012 1:41am Mar 30, 2012 1:10pm | Edited Mar 31, 2012 1:41am
Quoting QuadrupleX
Specifics.

When you have a specific, well define entry/exit trigger, it makes a lot more easier to exercise your discipline.

I had 2 losses last year that were bigger than they should. And I can trace them back to the violation of my specific trigger.

After you understand the strengths/weaknesses of your system is just a matter of screen time before you develop the discipline necessary to be consistent.
I certainly agree that being very specific on entries and exits will help a trader "trust" what they are seeing and help them to venture out and trade. After a few repeats of "successful" trades (following rules and gaining profits), it "should" become easier. It takes an initial dose of "guts" to place the trade, but more screen time and repeatedly trading a fairly reliable system should help.

And I can trace them back to the violation of my specific trigger.

I too can think of times when I did not follow my system. Why is that...just part of us that we have to handle and limit the risks involved there?

Thanks,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #155
  • Mar 30, 2012 1:36pm Mar 30, 2012 1:36pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
I certainly agree that being very specific on entries and exits will help a trader "trust" what they are seeing and help them to venture out and trade. After a few repeats of "success", it "should" become easier. It takes an initial dose of "guts" to place the trade, but more screen time trading a fairly reliable system should help.

And I can trace them back to the violation of my specific trigger.

I too can think of times when I did not follow my system. Why is that...just part of us that we have to handle and...
Some people are more disciplined than others because of genetic reasons, meaning they are born this way. Some of us develop it in our early years because our parents push us towards it or some other reason.

Talking specifically about "traders discipline" I believe that most people go broke too quick, so they don't have time enough to learn the kind of discipline to succeed in this business.

Unless you are a fool, if you stay around long enough you will end up learning.
  • #156
  • Mar 30, 2012 1:39pm Mar 30, 2012 1:39pm
Quoting QuadrupleX
Some people are more disciplined than others because of genetic reasons, meaning they are born this way. Some of us develop it in our early years because our parents push us towards it or some other reason.

Talking specifically about "traders discipline" I believe that most people go broke too quick, so they don't have time enough to learn the kind of discipline to succeed in this business.

Unless you are a fool, if you stay around long enough you will end up learning.
Never tied discipline to genetics before. Parents can play a key role very early on in the developmental years. Some learn by the hardships they go through for sure. You make a good point about people blowing up their accounts too soon to have enough time to learn the kind of discipline they really need to master.

Your last line is funny but true. "Anybody" can get there if they just keep practising the right things: perfect practice makes perfect.

Great thoughts. Hope it helps some to become more profitable.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #157
  • Mar 30, 2012 9:57pm Mar 30, 2012 9:57pm
Started trading forex last summer on a demo account, went live end of January after being profitable every month since September. My first 2 months live were 2 of the best months I had so far, but I really forced myself to stick to my system...which is probably why it worked out even better than during demo time.

I think the single thing that helped me become profitable is NOT to trade when conditions aren't optimal. During my first few months I had a lot of "damnit, I'm buying/selling...it MIGHT go my way after all" situations. Those really hurt you in the long run.

The second thing I did was read about dozens of other people's systems. I then went and took the parts I liked until I ended up with my own system. After that, I spent hours (days...) just staring at charts and back testing my system. I wanted to see every possible scenario and figure out how my indicators work together depending on what's going on. Nothing could have replaced staring at those charts for so long. Never look at indicators in isolation.

Thirdly, I started using support/resistance a lot more as of October last year...that really helped a lot. Fibonacci and "round numbers" (1.3100, 1.3200, etc) works great because so many traders use them, they turn into self fulfilling prophecies.

Lastly, do NOT ignore the news. Every Sunday I go over the calendar and take note of any important events for the week...they are stickied next to my monitor. No longer do I wanna get burned by some stupid news event

Cliff notes: Discipline...discipline...and yes...more discipline. Coming up with a system is the easy part, sticking with it seems to be the hard part, at least to me. Getting better at it though
  • #158
  • Edited Mar 31, 2012 1:49am Mar 30, 2012 10:19pm | Edited Mar 31, 2012 1:49am
Quoting 4exNinja
Started trading forex last summer on a demo account, went live end of January after being profitable every month since September. My first 2 months live were 2 of the best months I had so far, but I really forced myself to stick to my system...which is probably why it worked out even better than during demo time.

I think the single thing that helped me become profitable is NOT to trade when conditions aren't optimal. During my first few months I had a lot of "damnit, I'm buying/selling...it MIGHT go my way after all" situations. Those really...
Hi 4exNinja,

You've got some great ingredients there, no wonder you're doing well...

 

  1. Lots of screen time
  2. Making the system your own
  3. Back-testing like crazy
  4. Following your rules
  5. Checking news
  6. FORCING YOURSELF TO STICK TO YOUR RULES!!!!
  7. Discipline for sure: "NOT to trade when conditions aren't optimal"

Great job!


FX4

P.S. About to post another nugget shortly.

Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #159
  • Edited 11:01pm Mar 30, 2012 10:20pm | Edited 11:01pm
Here it is...

This I think is a great post that might also have a missing ingredient for struggling traders.

Enjoy,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #160
  • Edited 2:11am Mar 31, 2012 12:02am | Edited 2:11am
Quoting micmic
Ι would think so, but of course I can't be sure. Do you have a personal opinion ? Do you think that the voters' pool is representative of the ff population and if so, do you think that more than half of them are being profitable according to your definition ?

I'm not trying to imply anything here, I'm just asking for your personal opinion.
Hi Micmic,

Must have overlooked this...was reading through some posts.

I really don't have a solid opinion as I have heard conflicting stats, so I'm open. The one thing that we don't know from the poll is how long the voters have been trading Live, although it generally takes a few years in most cases to become "consistently profitable" by the definition given in Post 1. (Also, please note the word "currently" in the poll as I understand that status can change, but the goal is to stay there ).

The only way I could have added that question about trading time to the poll, was to have at least five more options or have two sets of questions, the current ones and ones for time, and trust voters to only select one from each set and not select multiple options. Just didn't want to muddy the water too much and make things confusing. Also wanted to keep it simple, as too many options can turn people off...just may seem too involved to want to bother.

Do you think that the voters' pool is representative of the ff population...

Yes. Only members who are logged in are allowed to take the poll. So, either the members are telling the truth and so the results are true for FF members, or FF members are more dishonest than one would imagine. I choose to believe that the majority are honest in their responses. If the majority are honest, the question then becomes: Can we believe the results in light of the 95% failure rate out there, and is that failure rate for newer traders?

Something to think about...

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
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