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  • #6,901
  • Mar 29, 2012 11:55pm Mar 29, 2012 11:55pm
Quoting JoelD
Whatever has happened to X-Man?
As with many thread originators, after all of the time invested in setting everything up and helping a ton of folks, X-Man is taking a break from the thread to concentrate on his trading.

I check in and lurk from time to time - quite amazed by the proliferation of indicators, so my comment would be to get back to Post #1 and follow the original set up.

Price action trumps all of the indicators. Indicators are only lagging indicators and averages /algorithms and will only confirm what you already know for the PA.
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #6,902
  • Mar 30, 2012 12:39am Mar 30, 2012 12:39am
Quoting thrax
Hi,

And I like following the trend.
After the countertrend move the GU continued the uptrend.
I took two trades:
the first entry was a bit premature, just some minutes before the close of the candle and so the TDI cross. The second one was a TDI bounce trade.
A preset TP just below the 1.6000 resistance zone was achieved with profits of 53 pips and 51 pips respectively.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_strategy name_20120330073437.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #6,903
  • Mar 30, 2012 3:25am Mar 30, 2012 3:25am
Hi,

Trade opened.
see chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 30 Mar H1 Trade 30-3-2012 4-19-31 PM.png Size: 29 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,904
  • Mar 30, 2012 3:31am Mar 30, 2012 3:31am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

Trade opened.
see chart attached.
Same entry here, only used pinocchio instead of inside bar:
EP: 1.336
SL: 1.339
TP1: 1.333
TP2: 1.331
TP1 hit, moved SL to BE
See chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1_strategy name_20120330082909.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #6,905
  • Mar 30, 2012 3:49am Mar 30, 2012 3:49am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
Same entry here, only used pinocchio instead of inside bar:
EP: 1.336
SL: 1.339
TP1: 1.333
TP2: 1.331
TP1 hit, moved SL to BE
See chart
Closed remaining half of the trade for +27.
Ready to invert positions, as this was trading a retracement of the major (H4&D1) trend.
  • #6,906
  • Mar 30, 2012 4:32am Mar 30, 2012 4:32am
Quoting Loftboy
I feel the whole essence of the thread has been lost. All people want is the latest pointless indicator, or even simpler, "post your template". When you see the clear charts from Phx62, probably one of the most consistantly winning traders, and compare some peoples' charts, that look like a map of the London Underground, it's no wonder the seniors here have gone elsewhere.

not nice!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,907
  • Mar 30, 2012 4:38am Mar 30, 2012 4:38am
Quoting Britpip7
As with many thread originators, after all of the time invested in setting everything up and helping a ton of folks, X-Man is taking a break from the thread to concentrate on his trading.

I check in and lurk from time to time - quite amazed by the proliferation of indicators, so my comment would be to get back to Post #1 and follow the original set up.

Price action trumps all of the indicators. Indicators are only lagging indicators and averages /algorithms and will only confirm what you already know for the PA.

Hi David,

Good that you drop by occassionally and give some constructive views and kind reminder to all members in this thread.
I am sure members will be able to discern this and value highly your comments especially coming from a senior member who has earned 6 vouchers and made 511 posts, and also owner of another great thread paying tribute to Big E for his TMS system.

Thanks and God Bless!

Emmanuel Team Traders
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,908
  • Mar 30, 2012 4:55am Mar 30, 2012 4:55am
Quoting thrax
After the countertrend move the GU continued the uptrend.
I took two trades:
the first entry was a bit premature, just some minutes before the close of the candle and so the TDI cross. The second one was a TDI bounce trade.
A preset TP just below the 1.6000 resistance zone was achieved with profits of 53 pips and 51 pips respectively.

hi thrax,

very good trades taken in my view. setups were quite clear and clean.
the first trade entry was also okay as there is a HH HL type market structure which was supported by the TDI and APB.
But the LO open H4 was quite brutal yesterdaywith huge volume driving price down below the Asian session. But on H4 with proper volatility stops, your trade did survive that move. Congrats!
Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,909
  • Mar 30, 2012 8:36am Mar 30, 2012 8:36am
Quoting nGoldenm
My first post at FF.

First of all GREAT thread! I read most of the TMS thread and have almost completed this one. I've been lurking and reading almost constantly the last 2 months or so. I've also opened a demo account with Oanda and trade in the US in the CST time zone. Due to work and sleep schedule restraints, I've limited my trading to the 4H charts and the associated 4H swing method.

I'd like to introduce myself and give a little background on my progression. I began by completing babypips. Then started demo trading TMS by trying...
Update to these trades.

AUDUSD - Added on to my position when strong candles were forming. Exited on heavy price pullback, touch of the daily channel, and TDI was about to cross. Closed both positions for +159 pips and +142 pips respectively. Chart below.

Attached Image


NZDUSD - Exited after a strong pullback of price, which turned out to be something I should have weathered out. Price was choppy though, buying pressure was strong. +18 pips. Chart below.

Attached Image


I took a few other trades as experiments, only one of which worked out for me. Lessons learned - stick the trade plan (Think I've heard that before...).


Potential setups that I'm monitoring:
GU - beautiful bearish divergence, double top formed, hitting top of daily channel, pullback candle forming right now. This one is ready to go down. I caught a little of the previous quick little downtrend. Looking to catch the monster that's coming. Chart below

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3_30_12 gu short.gif Size: 29 KB


AUDNZD - Possible reversal of trend. Will monitor closely, and look for multiple confirmations before jumping in.

EURNZD - Bounce off 60EMA to continue in original trend direction. Waiting for PA to confirm.
  • #6,910
  • Mar 30, 2012 9:50am Mar 30, 2012 9:50am
Quoting nGoldenm
My first post at FF.

First of all GREAT thread! I read most of the TMS thread and have almost completed this one. I've been lurking and reading almost constantly the last 2 months or so. I've also opened a demo account with Oanda and trade in the US in the CST time zone. Due to work and sleep schedule restraints, I've limited my trading to the 4H charts and the associated 4H swing method.

I'd like to introduce myself and give a little background on my progression. I began by completing babypips. Then started demo trading TMS by trying to...

Hi nGoldenm,

Excellent first post which I missed earlier. Your other post #6913 brought me back here.
You obviously have the right attitude and approach in learning to trade. You have learned the TMS system well and your analytical skills are shown in both the AU and NU trades. Well done!
I like the part where you added position to your AU trade. H4 is my favourite trading timeframe and there are always opportnuites to scale-in more positions with flaoting profits and this will grow your capital quicker.

Look forward to more of your posts and we can share more as we progress along in this thread.

Thank you and I wish you a Smooth Trading Journey.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,911
  • Mar 30, 2012 10:15am Mar 30, 2012 10:15am
Quoting emmanuel7788
hi thrax,

very good trades taken in my view. setups were quite clear and clean.
the first trade entry was also okay as there is a HH HL type market structure which was supported by the TDI and APB.
But the LO open H4 was quite brutal yesterdaywith huge volume driving price down below the Asian session. But on H4 with proper volatility stops, your trade did survive that move. Congrats!
Emmanuel,
thanks for your kind words! I think scaling in into a good trade is really a good idea! But how can it be carried out effectively? I assume one way can be using one TF lower and (short case) looking for break in support levels, but this is just a guess.

I appreciate very much your ideas and coments, please carry on!
thrax
  • #6,912
  • Mar 30, 2012 10:54am Mar 30, 2012 10:54am
Quoting hale-mary
Phx62 been reading your posts. andI have to ask. What tells you the market is ranging because on these days you ALWAYS seem to go the 15 min.Yet, on days that have actual movement you go straight to one hour chart and ride it out.

You seem to ride out the moves even in the ranging times as well as trending times. What tells you this what do you look at. I cant figure out PA with the synergy bars. Maybe I am not that great with them.

But hours of chart time and PA studying will not give me this type of acumen. What do you look at? You even know...
Hi hale mary

I won't presume to even try and answer for Phx62 but my 2c worth. Please bear in mind I find this idea difficult to put into words.

Range trading is obviously when price is bouncing up and down between 2 price levels, the range. Put another way 2 levels of S and R.

Trend is time frame dependent, a great 5 min trend may appear sideways rubbish on a 4hr or D chart. There is your first clue, I have attached both D charts as I see ranges better with traditional candles.

On D chart look for clear areas where there are wicks at a certain level, obvious proven turn areas, or for days when there are inside bars/doji's. If price has shown it cannot break prev days range you have the potential to range trade. If price cannot follow through on a good candle close you have potential to range. If price gets to (in this case 3350-3370) i.e. its range and 1 hr closes with an upper wick you have potential to sell on lower time frame.

On the attached charts just looking at last few days. Price approached upper range 3372 this morning and left big upper wick on 1hr, a chance to sell lower time frame. Same thing this afternoon. By same token I spy a lower range (for now) of 3315-3325 (see how this area acted most of week).

Essentially this method is a trending market method, range trading is a whole other set of skills worth acquiring as eur can go into a range funk for 3-6 days at a time. If you find it difficult to range trade use the method and search for something that may be moving a little better or of course sit out those sideways junk days.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 3.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #6,913
  • Mar 30, 2012 11:10am Mar 30, 2012 11:10am
OK then on 27th after 2 strong positive D closes price should move up. Basically its just common sense. If price rejects a move up as it does with a big upper wick and massive sell divergence immediate questions need to be asked. OK lets say we were all a bit worried to sell smaller tf's after that upper wick on 27th.

When those upper wicks are repeated on following days there should be enough warning to sell smaller tf's.

I forgot to mention if ATR drops dramatically on a day and the next day that small range holds you have another clue to range trade.

Hope this helps a little.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #6,914
  • Mar 30, 2012 11:43am Mar 30, 2012 11:43am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi nGoldenm,

Excellent first post which I missed earlier. Your other post #6913 brought me back here.
You obviously have the right attitude and approach in learning to trade. You have learned the TMS system well and your analytical skills are shown in both the AU and NU trades. Well done!
I like the part where you added position to your AU trade. H4 is my favourite trading timeframe and there are always opportnuites to scale-in more positions with flaoting profits and this will grow your capital quicker.

Look forward to more of your posts...
Thanks for the kind words. I've been borderline obsessed with trading forex since I kind of stumbled into it when looking for other income opportunities. I'm still learning and trying some experiments, but it finally looks like I am starting to get some consistency in the outcome of my trades.

Thrax, if I may, I'll share my scale in strategy. It might help some. So far, I've used scaling in as a way of limiting my risk on the reversal trade setups. It is generally more likely that price will continue in the current trend rather than reverse against it. So, I will go in at half of my calculated lot size on the initial signal of the reversal. I tend to be aggressive here to catch the move at the top. Once other signals and PA have confirmed my analysis and the first signal, I will then scale in the other half (or more if PA is strongly favoring my direction). There are a lot of factors I will look at here.

Take my AUDUSD trade for example. I entered quickly, directly after the pullback candle. In my backtesting, I've seen that pullback candles on the H4 timeframe are not absolute. You will have a bounce back right after it almost as often as it continues, hence my half lot size. I then scaled in my trade on the close of the second red candle. There was strong selling pressure, it closed below the 60EMA, and the 4EMA crossed as well. I could have gone with a stronger add on here, but I just went with my other half of lot size.

I would like to hear emmanuel's take on scaling in as well. I'm sure it would add another great tool to my ever growing box.
  • #6,915
  • Mar 30, 2012 1:05pm Mar 30, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting nGoldenm
Potential setups that I'm monitoring:
GU - beautiful bearish divergence, double top formed, hitting top of daily channel, pullback candle forming right now. This one is ready to go down. I caught a little of the previous quick little downtrend. Looking to catch the monster that's coming. Chart below

Attachment

AUDNZD - Possible reversal of trend. Will monitor closely, and look for multiple confirmations before jumping in.

EURNZD - Bounce off 60EMA to continue in original trend direction. Waiting for PA to confirm.
I'm out for the weekend. None of the above look worthy of a trade this close to the weekend break.

The bulls are still trying to flex their muscles a little on GU. They can only hold out for so long. Divergence is also seen on the daily TF, and both TF's are near the overbought territory. We'll see where the market takes us.

AUDNZD is looking favorable for a slow reversal, but it's not doing it with any conviction right now.

EURNZD is bouncing but PA is losing steam going into the weekend.

WEEK RESULTS
Pips won - (+319)
Pips lost - (-83)
NET - (+236)

Plan for the weekend is to do some more backtesting and analyze my pairs for possible trades leading into Monday and Tuesday. I would love to hear everyone's thoughts on the outlook for next week.
  • #6,916
  • Apr 1, 2012 3:58pm Apr 1, 2012 3:58pm
Audusd opens with a huge gap up, because of the better PMI of China last night
  • #6,917
  • Apr 1, 2012 6:50pm Apr 1, 2012 6:50pm
hmmm... every gap has to be closed... also there are a very mixed feelings about these news.
  • #6,918
  • Apr 1, 2012 8:06pm Apr 1, 2012 8:06pm
Quoting thrax
Emmanuel,
thanks for your kind words! I think scaling in into a good trade is really a good idea! But how can it be carried out effectively? I assume one way can be using one TF lower and (short case) looking for break in support levels, but this is just a guess.

I appreciate very much your ideas and coments, please carry on!
thrax

hi thrax,

see attached chart.
thought this will show better instead of writing a description on this.
this H4 trade taken in week 11 with a good setup after pricd bouced off the 1.3000 region and is now being managed and with add-in poeition as it progress.

whether to scale-in or to scale-out is a traders choice according to his/her financial objectives in the system traded. This has to be considered before a trade is taken and not necessarily that every profitable position can follow with scale-in of addition positions.

regards,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD week 11 H4 trade .png Size: 58 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,919
  • Apr 2, 2012 2:36am Apr 2, 2012 2:36am
Hi,
First trade for this month.
Not much analysis to do for this intraday trade. Follow my Big Picture bullish bias for this pair and continuation with TDI cross and a narrow ranged Tokyo session of 28 pips.

rgds,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 2 Apr H1 Intraday Trade 2-4-2012 3-27-41 PM.png Size: 25 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,920
  • Apr 2, 2012 3:45am Apr 2, 2012 3:45am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,
First trade for this month.
Not much analysis to do for this intraday trade. Follow my Big Picture bullish bias for this pair and continuation with TDI cross and a narrow ranged Tokyo session of 28 pips.

rgds,

decided to close this trade at +5pips ,
dont' see any momentum and EUR weaken against GBP.
also USD strengthen against AUD and NZD.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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