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Are you a consistently profitable trader?

  • #101
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:00am Mar 29, 2012 6:00am
Quoting micmic
As I wrote in another thread, I have faith in humans and my first reaction is not to dismiss anything, even if it sounds impossible. My problems start when those consistently successful traders turn out to sell mentoring, signals, books and in fact spend a lot of time promoting their products.

That's when I will say that they are undoubtedly scammers, liars and lowlives.
Honestly I don't believe in 99.99% of traders claiming consistent profits here on FF or around the internet in general.

Most of traders here trade on demo and claim trading real money. There is no way you can disprove them.

As far as I can tell Xaron was the only guy willing to show his trades in a real account in a daily basis. He became a god among traders here before blowing his account.

The bottom line is that the internet provides a shield for fake traders, anybody can claim anything. How one can prove them wrong?
  • #102
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:04am Mar 29, 2012 6:04am
Quoting QuadrupleX
Honestly I don't believe in 99.99% of traders claiming consistent profits here on FF or around the internet in general.
What's different about the 0.01% you do believe ? Any examples (other than Xaron) ?
  • #103
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:17am Mar 29, 2012 6:17am
Quoting micmic
What's different about the 0.01% you do believe ? Any examples (other than Xaron) ?
Just for the record Xaron wasn't and I believe he still isn't "consistently" profitable..

I can't give you not even one single example of a consistent trader here on FF, because nobody shows their trades before hand, so you can compare it. That said I would say that somebody out there should be making money in a regular basis thats why I said 99.99% not 100%

I'm making pips in a regular basis for the last 1 and a half or 2 years.

Does it makes me "consistent"? I don't think so.
Even if it did. Can you trust me? what kind of proof you have of my "consistency"?

I guess you got the point.
  • #104
  • Edited 5:07pm Mar 29, 2012 6:19am | Edited 5:07pm
Just putting this out there...

Let's just say that all of the people who voted in the poll told the truth thus far, could the average trader believe it?

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #105
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:20am Mar 29, 2012 6:20am
Quoting QuadrupleX
I'm making pips in a regular basis for the last 1 and a half or 2 years.

Does it makes me "consistent"? I don't think so.
Even if it did. Can you trust me? what kind of proof you have of my "consistency"?
I don't know about trust, but I can certainly believe you. Unless you try to sell me something, of course
  • #106
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:26am Mar 29, 2012 6:26am
Quoting micmic
I don't know about trust, but I can certainly believe you. Unless you try to sell me something, of course
Oh boy!

Do you really believe what people say?

Go right now to the E/U thread and see people claiming 60, 80, 200 pips. They do it every day.

Do you trust them?

"Forum traders" have a tendency to grow big egos. Don't you think that if we had so many amazing traders all together here FF would belong to Goldman sacks instead of Merlin?
  • #107
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:31am Mar 29, 2012 6:31am
Quoting QuadrupleX
Oh boy!

Do you really believe what people say?

Go right now to the E/U thread and see people claiming 60, 80, 200 pips. They do it every day.

Do you trust them?

"Forum traders" have a tendency to grow big egos. Don't you think that if we had so many amazing traders all together here FF would belong to Goldman sacks instead of Merlin?
  • #108
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:43am Mar 29, 2012 6:43am
Quoting QuadrupleX
Oh boy!

Do you really believe what people say?

Go right now to the E/U thread and see people claiming 60, 80, 200 pips. They do it every day.

Do you trust them?

"Forum traders" have a tendency to grow big egos. Don't you think that if we had so many amazing traders all together here FF would belong to Goldman sacks instead of Merlin?

Ok, here's a tour in my brain functions

The degree to which I believe all claims I read, has to do with the input data I have, my personal experiences and how plausible each claim is in relation to them. So, if I read that someone prays to the Almighty or does some Satanic rituals before each trade and this makes all of his trades winning ones, then I will immediately dismiss it as totally ridiculous. If I read that someone is consistent in his trading (without any more info), then I will believe him and assign a high probability of his claim being true. Why a high probability ? Because, as I said, I choose to have faith in humans and I don't deem the claim to be outrageous. BUT... usually, more data are available, and this may shake my original estimation: If that person tries to sell something, if his analysis doesn't look ok to me, if I suspect that by "consistently" he means something totally different than me, etc

Now, the above was about what I believe. "Believing" someone, may get me as far as examining his trading method - if he shares it for free. Trust, however, is a totally different animal and when it comes to forex, it involves money. One would have to provide a lot more evidence of his consistency and the value of what he is offering before I trust him with even the smallest amount of money. And so far, nobody here has provided that evidence
  • #109
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:51am Mar 29, 2012 6:51am
Quoting micmic
And so far, nobody here has provided that evidence
That last statement is my principle.

If you want me to believe something don't come with advice, theory, philosophy etc.

Show me the facts and I will believe you.

thats why I don't believe in 99.99% of people here or elsewhere including the big established names.
  • #110
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:51am Mar 29, 2012 6:51am
Quoting QuadrupleX
Do you really believe what people say?
And let me give you one immediate example: I believe you are consistent, and I give my belief a high probability to be true. This is because I don't deem your claim to be outrageous and I don't have any indications that you have some hidden agenda behind your claim.

Now, whether you are really consistently profitable or not, is something that only you can know with 100% certainty. So, you are the only one who can tell whether my belief (or estimation) was indeed correct or not. If I am correct, then I have to say that I've scored one point against someone else who wouldn't believe you just because "he doesn't believe 99.99% of all traders who claim consistency".

Have I scored, or not ?
  • #111
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:54am Mar 29, 2012 6:54am
Quoting 60minuteman

I have weeks where I am negative pips but positive %age...

If a trader really understands money management he will understand how this is possible.
Can you explain how you magic profits out of a negative pip count?

EDIT: Actually nevermind, I figure it's about differing lot size. I understand and agree.
  • #112
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:55am Mar 29, 2012 6:55am
Quoting micmic
And let me give you one immediate example: I believe you are consistent, and I give my belief a high probability to be true. This is because I don't deem your claim to be outrageous and I don't have any indications that you have some hidden agenda behind your claim.

Now, whether you are really consistently profitable or not, is something that only you can know with 100% certainty. So, you are the only one who can tell whether my belief (or estimation) was indeed correct or not. If I am correct, then I have to say that I've scored one point against...
I stick to my principles, you should not believe in me unless I give you some proof.

Just my 2 cents.
  • #113
  • Mar 29, 2012 7:01am Mar 29, 2012 7:01am
Quoting QuadrupleX
I stick to my principles, you should not believe in me unless I give you some proof.

Just my 2 cents.
Let me give you another example: If someone came now and said, "hey, I bet 50 bucks that QuadrupleX is NOT consistently profitable", and we had access to your accounts, and I was certain that this was not some kind of conspiracy in order to trick me, then I would take that bet.

Would I win or lose ?
  • #114
  • Mar 29, 2012 7:05am Mar 29, 2012 7:05am
Here is a link to my 29.4 pip trade THIS MORNING...charts and all...how many of you believe it? How many of you would think something other than the truth that I have shared?

FX4

P.S. Sorry to interrupt.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #115
  • Mar 29, 2012 7:08am Mar 29, 2012 7:08am
Quoting micmic
Let me give you another example: If someone came now and said, "hey, I bet 50 bucks that QuadrupleX is NOT consistently profitable", and we had access to your accounts, and I was certain that this was not some kind of conspiracy in order to trick me, then I would take that bet.

Would I win or lose ?
I told you already that I'm consistently profitable for the last 1 1/2 years or so. And I'm trading for a total of 5 years.

I can repeat or re phrase it over and over again and you still can't trust it 100%.

See how futile words can become.
  • #116
  • Mar 29, 2012 7:15am Mar 29, 2012 7:15am
Quoting QuadrupleX
I told you already that I'm consistently profitable for the last 1 1/2 years or so. And I'm trading for a total of 5 years.

I can repeat or re phrase it over and over again and you still can't trust it 100%.

See how futile words can become.
I said that trust is different than belief. But imagine that I am in a situation where I can't stay out of the game, I have to bet 50 bucks on your profitability or non-profitability. Eg, let's say I have a very good friend and I say to him "hey, come here and look, this guy says he's been consistently profitable for 1 1/2 year". And he reads the thread and replies "no way! I'm betting you 50 bucks he's not!" I'd take that bet. Because I believe I'd have more than 50% probability of winning.

And there must be many traders, certainly more than 0.01%, for whom I'd bet they are telling the truth INSTEAD of betting that they are lying.
  • #117
  • Mar 29, 2012 7:16am Mar 29, 2012 7:16am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Here is a link to my 29.4 pip trade THIS MORNING...charts and all...how many of you believe it? How many of you would think something other than the truth that I have shared?

FX4
No. I don't believe it because it is the past, and in trading, the past can't be taken as a valid proof.

I can come here and logicaly explain a trade I "took".

Now it I come here and logicaly explain takes I "will take" and my logic stands for a week you can start to trust me. For a months you can trust me more, for year, OH BOY! For 2,3 or 5 years . Well I guess you can see my point
  • #118
  • Mar 29, 2012 7:18am Mar 29, 2012 7:18am
Quoting QuadrupleX
No. I don't believe it because it is the past, and in trading, the past can't be taken as a valid proof.

I can come here and logicaly explain a trade I "took".

Now it I come here and logicaly explain takes I "will take" and my logic stands for a week you can start to trust me. For a months you can trust me more, for year, OH BOY! For 2,3 or 5 years . Well I guess you can see my point
Well, all I can say is that I placed the trade and have shown the results. I did it myself...no gimmicks. All that would help is to be able to sit right next to me and see it.

Who says the past can't be taken as valid proof. When someone tries to go to work for a money management company, they want to see their past trades. Then they audit them...checking their validity. You don't believe history at all?

I even made a comment about EU trying to turn, and we got a long move for about 20 pips...and that was before the move.

FX4

P.S. Should have just shorted EU for another 10 pips...shucks.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #119
  • Mar 29, 2012 7:21am Mar 29, 2012 7:21am
Quoting micmic
I said that trust is different than belief. But imagine that I am in a situation where I can't stay out of the game, I have to bet 50 bucks on your profitability or non-profitability. Eg, let's say I have a very good friend and I say to him "hey, come here and look, this guy says he's been consistently profitable for 1 1/2 year". And he reads the thread and replies "no way! I'm betting you 50 bucks he's not!" I'd take that bet. Because I believe I have more than 50% probability of winning.

And there must be many traders, certainly...
That's more semantics (trust and believe) 99.9999999% trust ( or believe) is still not trust.

Now about your example it falls under binary laws meaning they are random at best.

And thats ok if you decide to trust or not to trust somebody as long you are aware of the "probability" not certainty of the outcome.
  • #120
  • Mar 29, 2012 7:26am Mar 29, 2012 7:26am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Well, all I can say is that I placed the trade and have shown the results. I did it myself...no gimmicks. All that would help is to be able to sit right next to me and see it.

Who says the past can't be taken as valid proof. When someone tries to go to work for a money management company, they want to see their past trades. Then they audit them...checking their validity. You don't believe history at all?

I even made a comment about EU trying to turn, and we got a long move for about 20 pips...and that was before the move.

FX4

P.S....
You are missing the point. I'm NOT calling you a liar.

I'm just saying that since all data is in the past it invalidates the operation.

Now if you make a call today and tomorrow it stands and if you do it tomorrow and the next day it stands, the more it happens the more I have data (proof) that you are a consistent trader.
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