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Extreme TMA System

  • #7,561
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:10am Mar 29, 2012 2:10am
Quoting JollyJoker
Another question i have for AL and other pros out their who are euro bearish. If we see AUD USD we will find it at the bottom of almost all channel frame. IF as per your expectation euro goes down, AUD will also go down because of co-relation, Although its lagging these days because of interest rate issue , china growth and what not. However Eur still have room for upside.
What is most likely scenario and why ?
Will AUD go up and take euro with it or
Will EU go down and take aud with it
I am totally asking from TMA point of view, stretched studies...
The answer to this is that if USD goes higher as I expect, Eur and Aud will drop. Maybe in different percentage, but both should drop nonetheless. Weīll see if Usd goes higher...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,562
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:14am Mar 29, 2012 2:14am
Quoting JollyJoker
Hello Al,
First of let me tell you that this is my post at any thread on FF. Needless to say you made me post.
I have couple of questions, forgive stupidity of questions as i am just getting started.
I have used your system for 3 trades. Success rate was 33% that was very less then most of people here. That implies i must be doing something wrong.
First of all as TMA correct it self, there are many time when t = 0 you find price at bottom (15 min band crossing 1H band on the downside) that gives high probability of reversal to place buy entry but...
You didnīt include a chart at the moment of your trade so it is difficult to understand what you were doing wrong because now all the bands repainted. It is a good idea to take a picture of the chart at the moment you open your trade for future discussion, at least until you master the system.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,563
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:17am Mar 29, 2012 2:17am
Quoting shahrooz67
hi there

The problem occurs because this indi shows MTF results ! So make sure when you are dropping the indi on any time frame on any pair , other requested time frames like(M15 ,H1, and H4 by default) are fully updated on your history data !

Just once, switch to other time frames to download the recent data, then return to your original time frame!

At last restart your metatrader

Regards

Shahrooz
Version 1.5 works great, but as Shah says, this indi needs data for 3 TMA TFs, so do as he says and you will be fine.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,564
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:19am Mar 29, 2012 2:19am
im long in erjpy...

possible support for today?

http://i40.tinypic.com/122ccjr.jpg

im a master of paint xDD
MY telegram channel: https://t.me/https://t.me/tnavieurusd
  • #7,565
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:23am Mar 29, 2012 2:23am
Quoting tnavi
im long in erjpy...

possible support for today?

http://i40.tinypic.com/122ccjr.jpg

im a master of paint xDD
You yourself have drawn the H1 bands moving progressively down. It is not a good idea to trade against the direction of the higher time frame. You have to realize that for the H1 bands to come down like you think they will, price has to go down to pull them down.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,566
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:30am Mar 29, 2012 2:30am
i know Al, but im doing some scalp inside the h1 channel...

its bad idea?
MY telegram channel: https://t.me/https://t.me/tnavieurusd
  • #7,567
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:31am Mar 29, 2012 2:31am
Quoting Alorente
1- Yes.

2- No. The numbers on the Info indi give you the size of the TMAs with ATR Multiplier of 2.0. I changed ATR Multiplier of H1 and H4. so the real size is larger on the chart.
Paradox, is it possible to change the H1 and H4 TMA size on the Info indi, to reflect a 3.0 ATR Multiplier instead of 2.0? That way the TMA Size will reflect the actual size shown on the screen. The M15 does not need to be changed, since that is at the 2.0 default on the chart.

Thanks.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,568
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:31am Mar 29, 2012 2:31am
eurusd short at 1.33283
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #7,569
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:04am Mar 29, 2012 3:04am
Quoting Alorente
The answer to this is that if USD goes higher as I expect, Eur and Aud will drop. Maybe in different percentage, but both should drop nonetheless. Weīll see if Usd goes higher...
I would like to add a note to this. The AUD is heavily dependent on exports to China. China's economy is slowing some so then will AUD exports. There is a strong correlation between China economy and the AUD. Normally the AUD would never go above the 1.00 mark because then it couldnt compete on the world market. However, because the Chinese continued to buy it went over 1.00. Now that the Chinese market is slowing down expect the AUD and NZD to retrace and take a dive. Doesnt mean you never buy if the opportunity is there short term but long term you should see a decline. I would not try recovery trades on buys with the AUD and NZD at this time or the near future.
  • #7,570
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:05am Mar 29, 2012 3:05am
Just took a demo long on this one, as the HA candle that closed blue looked pretty weak. It would seem to be that this will be a bad long trade for a scalper.

Not meaning to step on any toes, Al, but might be worth putting something in the entry rules about avoiding entering on weak HA candles? Like I said, I don't mean to step on any toes, but it's starting to look like a god idea to me, at least for short term scalping.

EDIT: I didn't actually upload the chart!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.gif Size: 35 KB
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #7,571
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:10am Mar 29, 2012 3:10am
Quoting nanningbob
I would like to add a note to this. The AUD is heavily dependent on exports to China. China's economy is slowing some so then will AUD exports. There is a strong correlation between China economy and the AUD. Normally the AUD would never go above the 1.00 mark because then it couldnt compete on the world market. However, because the Chinese continued to buy it went over 1.00. Now that the Chinese market is slowing down expect the AUD and NZD to retrace and take a dive. Doesnt mean you never buy if the opportunity is there short term but long term...
I agree. I think Aud is going substantially under 1.00 in the next few months.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,572
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:13am Mar 29, 2012 3:13am
Quoting By_Tor2114
Just took a demo long on this one, as the HA candle that closed blue looked pretty weak. It would seem to be that this will be a bad long trade for a scalper.

Not meaning to step on any toes, Al, but might be worth putting something in the entry rules about avoiding entering on weak HA candles? Like I said, I don't mean to step on any toes, but it's starting to look like a god idea to me, at least for short term scalping.

EDIT: I didn't actually upload the chart!
Carl and I are working on adding a green fast trix as an additional signal to long entry. (Red fast trix for short). The combination of both HA and Fast trix will filter out bad trades substantially.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,573
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:14am Mar 29, 2012 3:14am
Quoting By_Tor2114
Just took a demo long on this one, as the HA candle that closed blue looked pretty weak. It would seem to be that this will be a bad long trade for a scalper.

Not meaning to step on any toes, Al, but might be worth putting something in the entry rules about avoiding entering on weak HA candles? Like I said, I don't mean to step on any toes, but it's starting to look like a god idea to me, at least for short term scalping.

EDIT: I didn't actually upload the chart!
I hope you are wrong because I'm long on this one
  • #7,574
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:15am Mar 29, 2012 3:15am
Quoting Alorente
Carl and I are working on adding a green fast trix as an additional signal to long entry. (Red fast trix for short). The combination of both HA and Fast trix will filter out bad trades substantially.
Hi Al,

Thanks for the response. I look forward to the update. Having searched through the files that come with the original download, I can't seem to find info on how to read the current trix indicator. Is it somewhere else in the thread?
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #7,575
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:18am Mar 29, 2012 3:18am
Quoting penet
I hope you are wrong because I'm long on this one
Hi Penet,

I could very well be wrong! Like I said, I took this one on demo, just to monitor it, so it really doesn't matter to me. If it does go South, it will at least reaffirm my belief that entering on weak HA candles is a bad move, not that that will be of much use to you in this situation!

Hopefully the universe can find a way to make this work for the both of us!
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #7,576
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:19am Mar 29, 2012 3:19am
Quoting Alorente
You yourself have drawn the H1 bands moving progressively down. It is not a good idea to trade against the direction of the higher time frame. You have to realize that for the H1 bands to come down like you think they will, price has to go down to pull them down.
Hi Al, I have made several of the same mistake like that too. But what perturbed me is when do we actually enter the trade? At the top of the 15M band? H1 band? or H4 band?

Say if the pricing did manage to hit the H1 or H4 band won't the TMA indicator be sloping upwards as well?

I read page 1 of this thread numerous time and has been following this thread faithfully. I guess I'm really thick in my head. Please enlighten me Thanks!

Warmest regards.
  • #7,577
  • Edited 3:39am Mar 29, 2012 3:38am | Edited 3:39am
Here are the charts in attachment, that made me go for buy trade.
I agree with both of you regarding aud going down in long run, and i am not arguing it. what i am trying to learn here is to use system effectively.
Thing i like about this forum is you guys are not giving us noobs fish, but method to catch the fish.
Respect !!
Al and other experience users, please identify whether it fulfilled all the requirement to trigger a trade ? Did i made mistake in reading something ? if yes please identify ? how likely it will go to top 4H band
Quoting Alorente
You didnīt include a chart at the moment of your trade so it is difficult to understand what you were doing wrong because now all the bands repainted. It is a good idea to take a picture of the chart at the moment you open your trade for future discussion, at least until you master the system.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd 15 min.gif Size: 34 KB
There are no right and wrong decisions......Only timely decisions
  • #7,578
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:46am Mar 29, 2012 3:46am
Same mistake i have been making i guess!
Quoting orionhan
Hi Al, I have made several of the same mistake like that too. But what perturbed me is when do we actually enter the trade? At the top of the 15M band? H1 band? or H4 band?

Say if the pricing did manage to hit the H1 or H4 band won't the TMA indicator be sloping upwards as well?

I read page 1 of this thread numerous time and has been following this thread faithfully. I guess I'm really thick in my head. Please enlighten me Thanks!

Warmest regards.
There are no right and wrong decisions......Only timely decisions
  • #7,579
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:51am Mar 29, 2012 3:51am
Quick question rephrased again, what confirms trade ?
problem i have been having is when i place trader, after some time bands will repaint themselves, thus moving the range, creating another extreme.
I guess i am entering trades premature. Could you please explain what will confirm, and how we can confirm.
Respect
Quoting JollyJoker
Same mistake i have been making i guess!
There are no right and wrong decisions......Only timely decisions
  • #7,580
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:53am Mar 29, 2012 3:53am
Quoting orionhan
Hi Al, I have made several of the same mistake like that too. But what perturbed me is when do we actually enter the trade? At the top of the 15M band? H1 band? or H4 band?

Say if the pricing did manage to hit the H1 or H4 band won't the TMA indicator be sloping upwards as well?

I read page 1 of this thread numerous time and has been following this thread faithfully. I guess I'm really thick in my head. Please enlighten me Thanks!

Warmest regards.
1 hour and 4 hour TMA bands are too tight. Set the ATR multiplier to 3 for both. Also, crucially, the 1 hour TMA value was sell only at -0.57, you ideally want this positive or ranging.
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