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Are you a consistently profitable trader?

  • #61
  • Edited 2:27am Mar 29, 2012 2:11am | Edited 2:27am
If a trader really believes that 95% or thereabouts of traders lose, why are so many still trying?

1. Is it an ego trip to say that they are in the 5%?

2. Is it that they really don't believe it's that high...the losing percentage?

3. Is it that they see a promise of financial freedom, and want to take the chance like people who risk their lives to escape the country they live in?

FX4...
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #62
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:15am Mar 29, 2012 2:15am
Quoting Tarusmark27
I am still learning trading and doing practice with demo account. So, I think it will take time to make profit in trading. I want to do sufficient practice with demo account.
Very good Tarusmark27. Do your best to trade your system exactly (hopefully it has been tested). Develop good habits and be as completely comfortable as you can be with your method, the platform etc. Then when you go Live, try to do the same things if you were successful in your Demo. Feel the fears that may come then, but do what worked before anyway.

All the best,

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #63
  • Edited 3:04am Mar 29, 2012 2:46am | Edited 3:04am
Quoting FX4Newbies

The two examples you have mentioned here (see the numbers in red) are extreme imho and not the norm.
And you reached that opinion, how? Both examples are quite probable, have you seen some of the strategies people use!

Quoting FX4Newbies

Also, if that kind of trading is relegated to "novices, inexperienced, or rogue traders", then by default, experienced traders shouldn't go there (though it can happen), and therefore should make the benchmark and more, right?
With the exception of a rogue trader no experienced trader would take those kinds of risks, it's unthinkable and not even a consideration!


Quoting FX4Newbies

I know it was not your example, but, depending on the trader it is doable. You first said "No...", hence my reply because you seemed so certain that it couldn't be done.
The 'no' was in reply to you saying 'you'll have a winning year' when from my example (3 consecutive profitable months followed by 1 month where you gave all profits back and then some) you quite obviously wouldn't.


Quoting FX4Newbies

Back to my point...every trader's statistics are only as good (or bad) as their last trade.
Huh? Well I'm in trouble then, I lost 35 pips on my last trade, I guess that means I'm a failure by your standards!


Quoting FX4Newbies

I think most traders would agree that that achievement does in fact demonstrate that they have achieved a certain degree of savvy as a trader.
A profitable 3 months means nothing, you need a lot more information. For example I could have major unrealized losses on a carry trade but show that my account balance increased month on month for 3 months! 3 months is simply not enough anyway, as someone else said show me 3 years which would probably cover a variety of market conditions, show me the risk you took not just the return, then I may just be convinced you know what you're doing!
  • #64
  • Edited 3:02am Mar 29, 2012 2:51am | Edited 3:02am
hi fx4newbies

as i said earlier when voting was around the 55% positive with 25 polls,were now at 37 and still between the 50 and 60 % positive,

unlike some ,im not surprised by these results for 2 reasons,

2 minute love syndrome,when polling men very few ticked the box for not satisfying there wives,naturaly we dont fill polls unless were in the 3 minute bracket,the 2 minute wonders shy from the poll,

secondly ,bearing in mind the minute syndrome,these results are taken over a 3 month period ,which skewers the facts,many intermediate traders do infact see periods of gains for this lenght of time,the brokers love this fact,if you do the same survey only this time change the 3 months to last 1000 trades your results will reflect the brokers edge that only aprox 4 to 8 % have positive results,take it one step further ,how many traders are living from there result and it will be closer to 2 maybe 3 %.

its all very interesting,not trying to say 90 % of us over time dont satisfy our wives but like the brokers they too are great illussionists

regards
me
  • #65
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:01am Mar 29, 2012 3:01am
Quoting FX4Newbies

Wouldn't it be interesting if the 95% is a "rumour" to keep traders in fear...to psych them out of winning?
Started and propagated by who?
  • #66
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:03am Mar 29, 2012 3:03am
While signing brokerage agreements i remember seeing a disclosure of profitable client percentages for each of the past 12 months.
Some months it was as low as 40% and others as high as 51% of the firm's clients as profitable. I would say the average was somewhere around 45% profitable.
So i don't know where the 95% figure comes from. Maybe on the observation that while 45% percent are profitable only 5 to 10% are able to consistently earn a living from trading. These eventually would become the big fish.
  • #67
  • Edited 3:26am Mar 29, 2012 3:09am | Edited 3:26am
Quoting FX4Newbies

If a trader really believes that 95% or thereabouts of traders lose, why are so many still trying?
Because they believe it will be different for them! They're so close, they can feel it's within reach, just catch that big trend or big move on the chart and bingo. 200 pips at 10 bucks a pip for 3 or 4 days a week.....woohoo we're gonna be rich baby!

Apart from those who do it for entertainment why do some people still play the lottery, gamble in casinos, or back horses?

Keeping the dream alive is comforting, there's always a chance......after all someone has to win, right? Reality is sometimes just too harsh to accept.



-
  • #68
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:10am Mar 29, 2012 3:10am
Quoting dakoo
While signing brokerage agreements i remember seeing a disclosure of profitable client percentages for each of the past 12 months.
Some months it was as low as 40% and others as high as 51% of the firm's clients as profitable. I would say the average was somewhere around 45% profitable.
So i don't know where the 95% figure comes from. Maybe on the observation that while 45% percent are profitable only 5 to 10% are able to consistently earn a living from trading. These eventually would become the big fish.
come on,40 to 50 % on retail forex,

dont be shy talk to your gp ,there are creams and gels available

remember most of us dont even show up on stats with brokers,most of us are in bucket shops,were very irelevent
  • #69
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:32am Mar 29, 2012 3:32am
Quoting mister me
come on,40 to 50 % on retail forex,

dont be shy talk to your gp ,there are creams and gels available

remember most of us dont even show up on stats with brokers,most of us are in bucket shops,were very irelevent

Ah you misunderstood, the average balance at my broker is north of 100k, perhaps that is why the percentage is higher. a more professional clientele
  • #70
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:39am Mar 29, 2012 3:39am
dakoo

yes that clears it up,proper clients with proper brokers,that figure seems fair
  • #71
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:49am Mar 29, 2012 3:49am
Quoting mister me
dakoo

yes that clears it up,proper clients with proper brokers,that figure seems fair
That being said, i do remember a couple of months back reading oanda had a 50% profitable client figure. Let me look for the link...
http://www.babypips.com/blogs/espipi...ker_doing.html

Oanda plays less manipulation games than others, maybe thats why their percentage is higher. And I believe the bulk of the 50 profitable percent are only marginally profitable, and a minority make a living out of it. So in that respect, the 5 to 10% figure should stand.
  • #72
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:55am Mar 29, 2012 3:55am
Quoting pipmutt
And you reached that opinion, how? Both examples are quite probable, have you seen some of the strategies people use!



With the exception of a rogue trader no experienced trader would take those kinds of risks, it's unthinkable and not even a consideration!




The 'no' was in reply to you saying 'you'll have a winning year' when from my example (3 consecutive profitable months followed by 1 month where you gave all profits back and then some) you quite obviously wouldn't.




Huh? Well I'm in trouble then, I lost 35 pips...

And you reached that opinion, how? Both examples are quite probable, have you seen some of the strategies people use!

Certainly haven't seen them all, but I do not believe it is the reality of the majority.


With the exception of a rogue trader no experienced trader would take those kinds of risks, it's unthinkable and not even a consideration!

What kinds of risks are you referring to here?


The 'no' was in reply to you saying 'you'll have a winning year' when from my example (3 consecutive profitable months followed by 1 month where you gave all profits back and then some) you quite obviously wouldn't.

That's a matter of opinion for sure. It certainly depends on the "and then some", but if a trader gives back their profits for 3 months in a 12 month period, I think they can still finish the year in profit.


Huh? Well I'm in trouble then, I lost 35 pips on my last trade, I guess that means I'm a failure by your standards!

If you take my statements out of context, you won't get my point.


A profitable 3 months means nothing, you need a lot more information. For example I could have major unrealized losses on a carry trade but show that my account balance increased month on month for 3 months! 3 months is simply not enough anyway, as someone else said show me 3 years which would probably cover a variety of market conditions, show me the risk you took not just the return, then I may just be convinced you know what you're doing!

Some good points...but in this setting, we're just dealing with consistently profitable. If a person has unrealized losses that they are carrying forward month after month, I don't consider that honest...that's on them. The risk is important of course, but that is not the point of this discussion.

Everything cannot be factored into this simple environment. But, I'll say it again, if a trader has been able to trade regularly for 3 months and have been profitable for those three consecutive months, on average, it says something about them!

Nothing more I can say about this.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #73
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:00am Mar 29, 2012 4:00am
Quoting mister me
hi fx4newbies

as i said earlier when voting was around the 55% positive with 25 polls,were now at 37 and still between the 50 and 60 % positive,

unlike some ,im not surprised by these results for 2 reasons,

2 minute love syndrome,when polling men very few ticked the box for not satisfying there wives,naturaly we dont fill polls unless were in the 3 minute bracket,the 2 minute wonders shy from the poll,

secondly ,bearing in mind the minute syndrome,these results are taken over a 3 month period ,which skewers the facts,many intermediate traders...
...if you do the same survey only this time change the 3 months to last 1000 trades your results will reflect the brokers edge that only aprox 4 to 8 % have positive results,take it one step further ,how many traders are living from there result and it will be closer to 2 maybe 3 %.

Now this I find very interesting...a good approach. Number of trades vs. time revealing the "broker's edge". Something to think about for sure. Those living from their trading....even smaller probably.

By the way, Intermediate traders have made progress.

Thanks for throwing those ideas into the mix.

Will leave the husband-wife thingy alone (but I got the point) .

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #74
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:11am Mar 29, 2012 4:11am
Quoting pipmutt
Started and propagated by who?
Good question. Just saying what if...

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #75
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:17am Mar 29, 2012 4:17am
Quoting dakoo
While signing brokerage agreements i remember seeing a disclosure of profitable client percentages for each of the past 12 months.
Some months it was as low as 40% and others as high as 51% of the firm's clients as profitable. I would say the average was somewhere around 45% profitable.
So i don't know where the 95% figure comes from. Maybe on the observation that while 45% percent are profitable only 5 to 10% are able to consistently earn a living from trading. These eventually would become the big fish.
Thanks Dakoo for that,

Maybe the 95% thingy is for new traders and it just stuck on all trades. Those after four or five years...maybe they have a better percentage; maybe those are the profitable clients.

Those who are able to earn a living from trading probably have a larger trading capital as well.

Great thoughts. Thanks.

FX4

P.S. Hope some of you were short EU.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #76
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:22am Mar 29, 2012 4:22am
Quoting pipmutt
Because they believe it will be different for them! They're so close, they can feel it's within reach, just catch that big trend or big move on the chart and bingo. 200 pips at 10 bucks a pip for 3 or 4 days a week.....woohoo we're gonna be rich baby!

Apart from those who do it for entertainment why do some people still play the lottery, gamble in casinos, or back horses?

Keeping the dream alive is comforting, there's always a chance......after all someone has to win, right? Reality is sometimes just too harsh to accept.

-...
Good thoughts there Pipmutt. Something must keep a trader going and it's probably a mind thing. Then there is the random reward experiment results done with monkeys. They kept performing if given a reward here and there.

Definitely some entertainment for some traders.

Dream alive...yes...keep hope alive. Boy, makes one think huh.

FX4

P.S. Up now 30 pips on EU. I'm out. Might look for another entry in a bit.
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #77
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:31am Mar 29, 2012 4:31am
Quoting dakoo
That being said, i do remember a couple of months back reading oanda had a 50% profitable client figure. Let me look for the link...
http://www.babypips.com/blogs/espipi...ker_doing.html

Oanda plays less manipulation games than others, maybe thats why their percentage is higher. And I believe the bulk of the 50 profitable percent are only marginally profitable, and a minority make a living out of it. So in that respect, the 5 to 10% figure should stand.

And I believe the bulk of the 50 profitable percent are only marginally profitable...

Even marginally profitable....50% is far from 95% losers. All of this just goes to show how important data and statistics can be used to convey the picture of choice.

Sure hope the traders here are honest voters just so we can get another statistic.

So, if 5% are really living off of this trading, what are the 95% percent chasing? A dream; a chance at freedom? Most traders want to be their own boss (if they work for someone else); those who are self-employed want time freedom and financial freedom. I guess that alone is worth a try. Maybe they don't feel as stuck if they are trying. Can't blame them one bit, just do it the best way possible. Train your mind well.

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #78
  • Edited 4:56am Mar 29, 2012 4:42am | Edited 4:56am
Quoting FX4Newbies

What kinds of risks are you referring to here?
The risk of, your quote 'all it really takes is one bad trade to ruin an account.'. No experienced trader would even consider taking that kind of risk, it's unthinkable.


Quoting FX4Newbies

if a trader gives back their profits for 3 months in a 12 month period, I think they can still finish the year in profit.
The quote was '3 consecutive profitable months followed by 1 month where you gave all profits back' equals breakeven over a 12 month period, at best.


Quoting FX4Newbies

The risk is important of course, but that is not the point of this discussion.
So the point of the poll and discussion is have you been profitable for 3 consecutive months regardless of risk and regardless of unrealised loss? Even if we relied on people to vote honestly how are the results going to be of any use to anyone, they're meaningless.


Quoting FX4Newbies

But, I'll say it again, if a trader has been able to trade regularly for 3 months and have been profitable for those three consecutive months, on average, it says something about them!
Not to me it doesn't, I'd certainly want to know more before I came to any meaningful conclusion.
  • #79
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:46am Mar 29, 2012 4:46am
Quoting FX4Newbies

Then there is the random reward experiment results done with monkeys. They kept performing if given a reward here and there.
Yes, and very significant when it comes to keeping people trading in hope!

I forgot another motive, laziness! No need to get a real job when you can sit in front of a screen and justify to yourself/parents/partner that you're really working and studying to become a professional trader! Baffle them with pips, MA's, Fibonacci and throw in a bit of fundamental analysis you read on Bloomberg and they'll be impressed!
  • #80
  • Mar 29, 2012 4:47am Mar 29, 2012 4:47am
How many pips per day (trading with a position size of 1 Standard lot) do you think the average person would need to be able to make a living out of trading?

1. 10 pips?

2. 20 pips?

3. 25 pips?

4. 40 pips?

5. 50 pips?

FX4
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
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