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AUD/USD

  • #42,401
  • Mar 28, 2012 8:53pm Mar 28, 2012 8:53pm
ouchies, that was a revenge trade gone wrong. No plan, a weak target, deserved to fail. Regrouping and watching for the bottom...patiently
  • #42,402
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:00pm Mar 28, 2012 9:00pm
Quoting beantrader
After 1.03500 is hit, i'm looking at 1.03350 maybe.
Don't think were going to hit 1.03350 tonight,the 1.0350 could be the start of a bounce up tp 1.03900-1.04000 area.
  • #42,403
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:14pm Mar 28, 2012 9:14pm
ooo i duno bout that, look at the nzd/usd an gbp/usd...how much downside is left there for the bottom, surely the usd hasnt lost much confidence (4hr charts)
  • #42,404
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:33pm Mar 28, 2012 9:33pm
Quoting fx-rocket
Sl moved to 1.0367 (+20)

Lets see what happens when/if we get to 1.0340, could struggle to get through that level.
If 1.0340 breaks, the 1.0320 target should be hit.
fx-rocket show us some charts u holdout u sound like a very good trader
  • #42,405
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:46pm Mar 28, 2012 9:46pm
Quoting Noobicle
fx-rocket show us some charts u holdout u sound like a very good trader
Looks like more than the charts need to be considered on this one right. Alot of other factors are driving this lower. I think it should see a bounce from here back to 103.90 area.
  • #42,406
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:46pm Mar 28, 2012 9:46pm
Quoting fx-rocket
Sl moved to 1.0367 (+20)

Lets see what happens when/if we get to 1.0340, could struggle to get through that level.
If 1.0340 breaks, the 1.0320 target should be hit.
Looks like we are on a similar plan...

Entered short at 1.03829, SL at 1.0405 Target 1.0330. Moved SL to 1.03629 (locked in 20)
  • #42,407
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:51pm Mar 28, 2012 9:51pm
Quoting Noobicle
fx-rocket show us some charts u holdout u sound like a very good trader
Thanx Noobicle, not at my desk today so cant' post any charts.
I'm no better trader than anyone else, we are all just different.
Some days I make good calls, some days bad ones.
I guess it's easy to make money shorting AUD at the moment since we are downwards trending (since 1:st of March)

I wish you good trades mate!
Expect the unexpected.
  • #42,408
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:53pm Mar 28, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting Intrepid32
Looks like we are on a similar plan...

Entered short at 1.03829, SL at 1.0405 Target 1.0330. Moved SL to 1.03629 (locked in 20)
Well, we just got our 20 pips :-)
Expect the unexpected.
  • #42,409
  • Mar 28, 2012 9:59pm Mar 28, 2012 9:59pm
Quoting fx-rocket
Well, we just got our 20 pips :-)
I'll take them. Should have covered at 1.0340. Just noticed the daily trendline support coming in from the Dec 15 and Dec 19 lows. If it gives way this week, we should see 1.0270 area
  • #42,410
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:01pm Mar 28, 2012 10:01pm
Hi fellow trader,

I would like to share my opinion on AUD pair here is my chart

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1332989146

Sell @ 1.0350 TP 1.0300 SL 1.0398

In my view aud is in a descending channel starting the last of february.
Price now playing below weekly (pink) and monthly (blue) moving average which I assume as seller now is much more than buyer.
Price trying to break up through monthly moving average but bounced down again so I assume possibly much more people willing to sell aud.
there is possibility the price could go down to 1.0285 but since maybe it take more time to get there and the possibility of bounced up again so my target is 1.0300 beside the average daily range only have around 50 pips to cover more.
BUT if the price move up and play @ 1.0395 - 1.0410 then I consider that my opinion is wrong. So i put my SL there.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd4hr2932012.JPG Size: 111 KB
  • #42,411
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:03pm Mar 28, 2012 10:03pm
Time to start building a long position. Could go as low as 1.02, where we will find strong support. However there are a few levels to get through before that. AUD will drift upwards in the coming days/weeks.

For today, we should bounce between 1.034 and 1.041. Above 1.041 will be a great bull signal
  • #42,412
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:09pm Mar 28, 2012 10:09pm
Quoting Intrepid32
I'll take them. Should have covered at 1.0340. Just noticed the daily trendline support coming in from the Dec 15 and Dec 19 lows. If it gives way this week, we should see 1.0270 area
Yup, I got that daily support coming in at 1.0320, still think we will see that level to be tested within asia timeframe.
Expect the unexpected.
  • #42,413
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:10pm Mar 28, 2012 10:10pm
Guys, DON'T FORGET!

Official Chinese PMI data coming on Sunday. This is more important than the unofficial HSBC PMI we saw about a week ago. As I posted earlier, HSBC tend to be overly bearish with these figures. I'm expecting positive data on Sunday, which could see a large rise of 200-300 pips in AUD next week. So be cautious holding onto shorts over the weekend
  • #42,414
  • Mar 28, 2012 10:14pm Mar 28, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting zarach
Hi fellow trader,

I would like to share my opinion on AUD pair here is my chart

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1332989146

Sell @ 1.0350 TP 1.0300 SL 1.0398

In my view aud is in a descending channel starting the last of february.
Price now playing below weekly (pink) and monthly (blue) moving average which I assume as seller now is much more than buyer.
Price trying to break up through monthly moving average but bounced down again so I assume possibly much more people willing to sell aud.
there...
Agree with your view on the descending channel. I spotted that earlier this week and got short around 1.0550 with 30 pip SL. Went about 15 pips in the red before rolling over. Closed it at 1.0370 for 180 pips. If we get through 1.0330, I think we will see 1.0270 area next, which would be the lower end of that channel.
  • #42,415
  • Mar 28, 2012 11:45pm Mar 28, 2012 11:45pm
A nice candle below the wall will cancel this plan. The wall comes around 350-20 area. Some are saying the flag is already cancelled but the trend is saying something else an points to the 550 area. A convincing break of the wall an ill stick to the bears

^_^
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD(1 Day)4012.png Size: 32 KB
  • #42,416
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:32am Mar 29, 2012 1:32am
Potential double bottom in the making.

Could be in a trading range between 1.035 and 1.055 until Chinese PMI gives us something to work with on Sunday
  • #42,417
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:46am Mar 29, 2012 1:46am
Quoting diggo
Potential double bottom in the making.

Could be in a trading range between 1.035 and 1.055 until Chinese PMI gives us something to work with on Sunday
double bottom on what TF? Don't have my charts in front on me.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #42,418
  • Mar 29, 2012 1:50am Mar 29, 2012 1:50am
I'm referring to the March 22 low

Quoting rafiqhidayat
double bottom on what TF? Don't have my charts in front on me.
  • #42,419
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:03am Mar 29, 2012 2:03am
Quoting diggo
Could be in a trading range between 1.035 and 1.055 until Chinese PMI gives us something to work with on Sunday
hmmmmmmmm...

where do u get these chinese reports?
  • #42,420
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:14am Mar 29, 2012 2:14am
Forex - AUD/SGD, AUD/USD Flows: AUD/Crosses sold on RBA rate cut talks; 1.03 Options
01:21 (GMT) 29 Mar [Forex Flows]
AUD/USD under pressure on increased expectations that RBA may cut Cash Rate of 4.25% at its RBA Board meeting next Tuesday, April 3. RBA Watcher Terry McCrann : The chance of a rate cut next week is at least 50-50; and in my judgment is actually the more likely outcome.


On FX, markets pricing in more RBA rate cuts over next 12-months, now -72bps, from -68bps earlier and -61 yesterday. AUD/USD support at 1.0350-60, speculation of options related, Aussie corporates, miners, real money and sovereign bids, Asian Cbs (2-way interest) and possibly Swiss, Russian, East Europeans on dips to 1.0300-10. But hearing stops below 1.0345-50, and huge option barriers at 1.0310/1.0300. 1-m Aussie Vols levels last seen around 10.75%, from 10.8025%. Levels at 10.505/10.995%. R/r -2.05/-1.705%. 3-m Vols 11.65/12.15%, r/r -3.375/-2.475%.


Markets pricing for break of Parity. Huge stoploss below Parity and below 0.9800 - given talks that investors have been good sellers of AUD/USD puts, taking in premiums - on expectations that AUD/USD will not fall too sharply below Parity. Good to watch. AUD/SGD - a favourite amongst investors - looking vulnerable to break of key 1.3000 - which will open door for 1.2500. Likely to hear huge stoploss below. AUD/SGD hit 3-m lows of 1.3020-30 yest, low since Dec 20 1.2930. USD/SGD 1.2585-90, in range of 1.2500-1.2700 on the wide ahead of MAS Semi-annual policy. WL
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