Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

hey hermit........i was thinking about you and wondering what was your take on provincial politics in British Columbia?

the prem is liberal, right? but, she has hired Harper's former press sec to 'manage' the press, correct.

and, in an interview the other day she went on about being 'conservative' with her platform.

so, is she a liberal or a conservative or both?.....or just another opportunist?

what is it with politicans?........no balls, right.

i remember you mentioning trips to Los Angeles........ever get to Cicada an art deco place at 617 south olive st.......the chef is an x g/f........or was.

mention roro.......she is actually very charming.....speaks 5 or 6 languages.......pretty too. people who saw her used to tell me i was lucky. she said i was good.

Then it's a good month for sure.....

HOLLA

Forex wise ... no complaints.

How about you Turtle, managing to stay in the game?

Liberal Premier Christy Clark, a talk show host, is basically a clone of her predeceser in skirts. The provincial Liberal party is an amalgamation of other party fragments particularly the Social Credit so I consider some of them to just be in Liberal clothing.

Irregardless, they have over the years managed to destroy and dismantle the economic, education and health care bases in most of the small and midsized communities in their headlong rush to privitization giveaways with the use of a ruthless authoritarian centralization mentallity. What else would you expect from a bunch of "cement raised politicians" who have never gotten their "hands dirty" doing an honest days work and have no understanding of the hinterland they "rule". Consequently most "mom and pop" operations have become franchise clone box businesses and the grow op industry is at all time highs (oh, bad pun) and worth in the billions, certainly more than the lumber industry.

What have we got to look forward to, probably an NDP government next time around is my guess, but, don't quote me on that. In B.C. politics the crazies motherf54king things can happen.


Uhm .. haven't been to L.A. in a long, long time now or at least seems that way. Anyway, I don't know my way around L.A. that well and generally rely on the generousity of friends to show me around. Sounds interesting though, is it a good restaurant? I could pass it on to friends there and if I get down there again .... for sure, thanks.

Ex girl friends ..... ah, sweet nostalgia.

Cicada is very nice hermit. so is Suzay, if she is still working.


politics has come too close to resembling the Handmaid's Tale for my liking, but who cares about what i think.

liberal, conservative, republican, democrat are not much more than convenient labels that the dumbed down public gets spoon fed like baby pablum with 30 second sound bites and flashy photo ops in between episodes of dancing with the stars and kim kardASSian...........enough of that, right. too depressing and the public has more or less written itself off with its addiction to consumerism so i digress.......must be more disciplined since the real purpose here is to find profitable trades.

trades?........looks to me that the European indexes may find support on the 8 hr.......same for the AUD/USD - maybe a double bottom forming on the 8 hr and the techs look very O/S for the moment at least.

the US equity indexes have not had close to the pullback of the European counterparts and i am getting the drift that there is more QE coming or some kind of 'twist' or another that may prop the markets and set up a run to 1450 or maybe 1500 for the S&P into May........the NasDAQ is hardly off of its top post Bernake from Monday morning and 3000 is a nice big round fat number that sounds real nice for CNBC and MSM.

also the politicians have come to the party(another intervention) with the implied release from strategic reserves so unless the fireworks get started in the Sts of Hormuz then OIL looks capped by 107.50 and if it can be pushed decisively under 105 back closer to the 100 mark that all lines up positively for the economy and equities.

NFP numbers next week so it may be choppy but also maybe a range is getting established bounded by the recent highs for the DAX FTSE CAC et al although still agitated by the S&P and NASDAQ - in other words not real confident about shorting NA indexes

AUD/JPY looks like S around 85 but a break below 84.75 then that may be a game changer.

with the Euro and Pound pushing up and the US Dollar Index near sig resistance and Oil being pulled back to earth and NFP next week as a potential segue into the Apr FOMC and fanfare for the next twisted QE

China probably wants a stronger Euro

i am and have been of the opinion since LTRO 1 that the policy makers are very well aware of risks posed so have come with a much more sophisticated and nuanced approach this time around having learned from other dilutions, and part of the design of this larger coordinated intervention is also a pattern of predetermined and sequenced drops.........a kind of intravenous mix of real and inferred for the market if you will.

i look to interventions to trump fundamentals and technicals and that case is supported if only over the past week as European PMIs printed negative but were overridden by the ECB's intervention in the Spanish and Italian bond mkts suppported over a weekend when mkts are closed by Merkels focus on an expanded 'firewall', then Monday AM at 8 for Bernanke to kickoff the week and gun the indexes higher on inferred QE coming soon to a theatre near you...........did i forget the OIL story and strategic reserve releases...........coordinated too.

earnings are coming up but last Q earnings were nothing to write home about and the mkts just kept grinding higher on LTRO1 and 2 and the FED making itself plainly visible threatening from the corner like a the other partner in a WWF tag team wrestling match.

the takeaway for me from watching all of this is that interventions are far from done so that makes me nervous when i take short trades against US equity indexes

Trade........long EUR/USD with a stop at 1.3270, long the DAX with a stop at 6935

Update 05:30.............got stopped out on the DAX

Here's a chart that might resonate with 45Condor as it uses a guppy profile and macd combo. H4 and H1 are my prefered timeframes when I look at these squigles. Just been following macd direction for a couple of nice shorts.

got stopped out of the DAX and Euro for a loss, and missed the sell off on Italy's ITA40 (big drop too of over 500 pts so not pleased) but consolation prize on a short Oil at 9 AM so at least something..........

takeaway; looking the wrong way and missed a kill shot.

c'est la vie.

..........Good coments and analisis from all, thanks......

.......I'm looking for 3320 to short again.......good luck to all......

.....It may bounce here on this EMA's because of the lack of power, but you know forex, we never know what they have in mind for us..........

..........swisse is doing the same thing but upside down or oposite........

Chonchy..............just started to look at USD/CHF again and am wondering what you think...........wondering if it is buy and hold as rates begin to rise in the US

0.8950 is a big support number right?

people have been pretty generous since i just showed up not so long ago kind of out of the blue.

thanks........enjoy having a place to vent too!

you can blame Chonchy for posting the girly pix........like a rat to cheese for me

.......The swessy bounce at the aqua EMA let see if it got the power to cross or go back up....

.......And the yurow may bounce here at the aqua also, or keep going for the UTL magenta, let see how she roll........

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........It cross a significant EMA, the 200 but the other two EMA's, 30 and 100 haven't cross the 200 yet so it may go up again, so as to buy and hold, I don't know, I don't like it for me to buy and hold, I'm a bite and run more kind of guy, I'm short this pair in this acc but is very small lots I only use it for the charts......but if it goes to 0.8920 or so I may dump all and start clean........so I don't know what to tell you roro53, I guess it all depend on the yurow, remember if the yurow rally the suisse franc will dump and viceversa........

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Chonchy.........you have a great eye for beauty and, i thought i was good!

ouch!

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