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The Really Useless Thread

  • #68,401
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:18pm Mar 28, 2012 7:18pm
Quoting attila
Well... m15 is kinda toppy, h1 can still go up, h4 wants to go down.. So pretty much can go anywhere.. lol. And however we slice it, it's gonna go against my position.
When Dubai kicks in, it can change things around. I'd be pissed if it just take off.
  • #68,402
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:21pm Mar 28, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting Venice
lol that has been the key. That must have been where your quote in your sig came from a few weeks ago... haha.

Seems like anytime a zone is breached it is a 50/50 chance of reversing or plowing through.

Still tradable within the numbers, but I like to have at least a little bit of an edge on my wins vs losses. This was a lot more fun when I was up in the 90% accuracy range.
I find it easier to trade against the trend (within reason). You get s/o a lot, but then you catch a runner and make it all back.
  • #68,403
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:21pm Mar 28, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting attila
Well... m15 is kinda toppy, h1 can still go up, h4 wants to go down.. So pretty much can go anywhere.. lol. And however we slice it, it's gonna go against my position.
berries 15 min
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New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #68,404
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:23pm Mar 28, 2012 7:23pm
Quoting KillerWhale
berries 15 min
Mometum is such a weird indicator.

Marks the current price vs the close of (x) bars ago. someone should make a smoothed version of that. Maybe I'll do it this weekend, would take 15 mins tops.
  • #68,405
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:24pm Mar 28, 2012 7:24pm
Quoting Venice
Mometum is such a weird indicator.

Marks the current price vs the close of (x) bars ago. someone should make a smoothed version of that.
They did. It's called macd.
  • #68,406
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:25pm Mar 28, 2012 7:25pm
Quoting pkimnyc
When Dubai kicks in, it can change things around. I'd be pissed if it just take off.
It could be whipsaw higher, but I think it's bearish atm. If it keeps behaving, given the history, it should go down to 3135 area. The only problem is looking at daily hmm. I don't know.. we've got a spinner today so lower is not out of the question there either..
  • #68,407
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:25pm Mar 28, 2012 7:25pm
Quoting KillerWhale
berries 15 min
Yeah, mine is topped too.
  • #68,408
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:26pm Mar 28, 2012 7:26pm
Quoting attila
It could be whipsaw higher, but I think it's bearish atm. If it keeps behaving, given the history, it should go down to 3135 area. The only problem is looking at daily hmm. I don't know.. we've got a spinner today so lower is not out of the question there either..
I just want the low. Let's see if we get there first.
  • #68,409
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:28pm Mar 28, 2012 7:28pm
Quoting pkimnyc
They did. It's called macd.
You sure? MACD is the moving average of all of the last bars, then smoothed. Difference is the signal line.

Momentum is the current price compared to the close price of the xth bar ago (doesn't take into account all bars inbetween like macd). Smoothing that would smooth the movement of that difference, but not the average price along the way.
  • #68,410
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:29pm Mar 28, 2012 7:29pm
Quoting pkimnyc
When Dubai kicks in, it can change things around. I'd be pissed if it just take off.
Only thing I remember from Dubai is Heiniken Beer
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #68,411
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:29pm Mar 28, 2012 7:29pm
Quoting pkimnyc
I just want the low. Let's see if we get there first.
What's up with Dubai?
  • #68,412
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:29pm Mar 28, 2012 7:29pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Only thing I remember from Dubai is Heiniken Beer
gross. It's the equivilant of bottling skunk spray + water.
  • #68,413
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:32pm Mar 28, 2012 7:32pm
Quoting Venice
You sure? MACD is the moving average of all of the last bars, then smoothed. Difference is the signal line.

Momentum is the current price compared to the close price of the xth bar ago (doesn't take into account all bars inbetween like macd). Smoothing that would smooth the movement of that difference, but not the average price along the way.
The reason all indicators fail pretty much is the market expands and contracts in it's movements.. You need a way to measure that and factor it into the indi..
  • #68,414
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:34pm Mar 28, 2012 7:34pm
Quoting attila
The reason all indicators fail pretty much is the market expands and contracts in it's movements.. You need a way to measure that and factor it into the indi..
The best combination ever for indicators, which don't exist would be...

1) Determine if currently ranging / trending
2) Range player
3) Trend player

Thats the holy grail. But price tells you what it's doing at face value... so yeah.
  • #68,415
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:37pm Mar 28, 2012 7:37pm
currencies are mean reverting mediums... the question is... which mean is it currently trying to revert too.

Always in the balance of supply / demand, who is selling, who is buying, who is closing positions blah blah.
  • #68,416
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:40pm Mar 28, 2012 7:40pm
Quoting Venice
currencies are mean reverting mediums... the question is... which mean is it currently trying to revert too.

Always in the balance of supply / demand, who is selling, who is buying, who is closing positions blah blah.
I gave up on that a long time. The reason is at any moment the phone can ring at a bank desk with a huge order. Nobody knows when that happens, and when that happens all it wants are the orders positioned the opposite way. There is no supply and demand, unless we the little fish play ping pong. It always works until it doesn't.

There are so many s/d areas you can come up with.. It goes through huge ones and it reverses on a pissy one..
  • #68,417
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:42pm Mar 28, 2012 7:42pm
Price seems to be scared of 1.3333
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  • #68,418
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:43pm Mar 28, 2012 7:43pm
Quoting KillerWhale
Price seems to be scared of 1.3333
I would, if I was price!
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #68,419
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:47pm Mar 28, 2012 7:47pm
Quoting attila
I gave up on that a long time. The reason is at any moment the phone can ring at a bank desk with a huge order. Nobody knows when that happens, and when that happens all it wants are the orders positioned the opposite way. There is no supply and demand, unless we the little fish play ping pong. It always works until it doesn't.

There are so many s/d areas you can come up with.. It goes through huge ones and it reverses on a pissy one..
Well, the general idea is that say, supply is established because that phone call does come through. Then when it comes back to that area, the people are still there to defend it.
  • #68,420
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:50pm Mar 28, 2012 7:50pm
Quoting Venice
Well, the general idea is that say, supply is established because that phone call does come through. Then when it comes back to that area, the people are still there to defend it.
I don't think it works that way.. While the phone call is in the ether, the market has already positions established (sL, opposite orders etc). When the phone rings, it's just gonna wipe them clean, and if it's not done, goes to the next level..

The way I see it, we the suckers are here to provide liquidity for those orders.
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