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  • #2,121
  • Mar 27, 2012 1:09am Mar 27, 2012 1:09am
18p x 43b

Happening now on my favorite chart.

43 M15 bars is unusual, but not unheard of by itself. But combined with a height of just 18p, it becomes something special.

Go get 'em boys! Pips will be made in the morning!
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #2,122
  • Mar 27, 2012 12:33pm Mar 27, 2012 12:33pm
Long like the asian session which is normally ranging.
I wonder what happened to your method afterwards
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  • #2,123
  • Mar 27, 2012 12:55pm Mar 27, 2012 12:55pm
Quoting forexhard
43 M15 bars is unusual, but not unheard of by itself. But combined with a height of just 18p, it becomes something special.
Follow up on GBPUSD 15min; market machinations have built a wider contract zone. Expect a push higher to 1.61 as sellers anticipate a turn.

http://i.imgur.com/kv5J4.gif
Politics is the womb in which war develops.
  • #2,124
  • Mar 27, 2012 1:22pm Mar 27, 2012 1:22pm
Quoting Marzullo
Long like the asian session which is normally ranging. I wonder what happened to your method afterwards
Not sure if you're being sincere or snarky, but my method is working perfectly. Whipsaw doesn't bother me in the slightest, because I assume that every single breakout will have it. I don't put all of my eggs in one basket; I spread the risk, and I always assume the worst. My personal wishes and ego are never allowed to influence my trading decisions. It's what separates the boys from the men.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #2,125
  • Mar 27, 2012 1:27pm Mar 27, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting FiatFap
Follow up on GBPUSD 15min; market machinations have built a wider contract zone. Expect a push higher to 1.61 as sellers anticipate a turn.
FiatFap, we never try and predict direction. That's for another system. Over the course of the thread I have given many live examples of earning pips by ignoring the prevailing trend and simply going where the price takes us.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #2,126
  • Mar 28, 2012 12:27pm Mar 28, 2012 12:27pm
Quoting forexhard
FiatFap, we never try and predict direction. That's for another system. Over the course of the thread I have given many live examples....
And here's another one. 100 pips straight down. Totally contradictory to the rules of just about every other system here at FF. But according to our rules it was expected, and it was traded.

How was it expected even though it went against trend? Because I expect anything. Or nothing, depending on your perspective. I just go with the flow, like a leaf floating down the river.

I've already forgotten what price did yesterday, and I don't plan for what it might do tomorrow. Today, right now, is all that matters.
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To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #2,127
  • Mar 28, 2012 1:55pm Mar 28, 2012 1:55pm
Quoting forexhard
And here's another one. 100 pips straight down. Totally contradictory to the rules of just about every other system here at FF. But according to our rules it was expected, and it was traded.

How was it expected even though it went against trend? Because I expect anything. Or nothing, depending on your perspective. I just go with the flow, like a leaf floating down the river.

I've already forgotten what price did yesterday, and I don't plan for what it might do tomorrow. Today, right now, is all that matters.

Good call. Good trade.
  • #2,128
  • Mar 28, 2012 2:15pm Mar 28, 2012 2:15pm
Quoting forexnetworth
Good call. Good trade.
Thanks. I only wish that more people would get the message. Trading is only as hard as we make it on ourselves.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #2,129
  • Mar 28, 2012 4:28pm Mar 28, 2012 4:28pm
Very nice, simple and concise method you have here. Cuts out all the bullshit everyone else is so hung up on with long term directions overbought/oversold conditions etc.

I just have a couple of questions, I read page one and you said set up a rectangle box with height of 30 pips, but in your more recent posts you show a rectangle with 18 pip height. During the period of consolidation do we just pick the highest most recent price and lowest price and draw our rectangle from that or am I missing something important?

Also what is the general bar count figure, or is it the more bars in the consolidation zone the higher/lower price is going to go?

Also is there any exit strategy or do you use a trailing stop..

I like your system, I feel it could work well if incorporate it with my own and a bit of statistics..

Sorry for all the questions!
  • #2,130
  • Mar 29, 2012 5:07am Mar 29, 2012 5:07am
Hello Forexhard and All,

I'm not even halfway through your thread, but you mentioned on p55 that you'd given out everything (just have to dig it out). Thanks for that! I don't know if I'm gonna finish reading through the whole lot in the near future, so I just had to pop in to say hello.

I'm already doing my homework (backtesting, and spotting + trying to demo present CZs), and I'm glad I've spotted the same G/U CZ you were watching. What a beauty! In hindsight, though, most of the move happened when I was at work...

G/U 15m, please just ignore the irrelevant stuff you don't want to see.

http://s9.postimage.org/7jk19ig2j/fx...e_cable_01.png (http://postimage.org/image/7jk19ig2j/)

No1: The first thing that got my attention was the size of the CZ. I am new to trading (~1yr) but noticed a "natural average range" on E/U and G/U that is the same as your CZs: they tend to swing about 40p before a pullback. (i.e. CZ = 30p + 5+5p buffer on both ends). I just couldn't really play them in a consistent way before I found your methods.

No2: a way back, you were encouraging us to talk about methods that "big dogs" use, if we know any. Let me interprete one here:
http://s9.postimage.org/h5dlpt78b/fx...ple_eur_01.png (http://postimage.org/image/h5dlpt78b/)

We see a CZ here (30p + 5p buffer zones), but as we see the actual CZ is smaller (~20p). Between the red arrow and the check sign we see how those professionals work. The chart's time is in GMT. See? "Market makers" are actually human. They have their morning coffee, go for lunch, and make some money in-between (unless they want to get kicked out of their jobs). And the best laugh is that this simple observation comes from Mr Gann. People are normally enraged when they find out the simplicity of his methods.

To break it down: at certain times, the market is confined to a consolidation zone. Which means there are orders sitting below and above this zone. Everybody knows that, including professionals. But they control liquidity. Before the market goes up, it goes down (or vice versa). It will leave the CZ but then go the other way.

In this example, we wouldn't have jumped in the breakout according to the current rules. Other days, you can have both b/o confirmation candles and hit TP before the price reverses.

Thank you for sharing your system, Forexhard!
  • #2,131
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:31pm Mar 29, 2012 2:31pm
Hello

I finally read the whole thread. I have a few questions and some tools to share. Figure to do it all in one post to avoid clutter.

First off real kudos for the consistency of the message for 9 months. Also the work and polish in the indicator is impressive.

So one question is about your own CZ indicator. Is there any algorithmic differances to how it works? Why would you use it over the public one? These are just curiosity questions. Yes No answer is all I ask so I can stop trying to figure something out that is not there to figure out.

Also have you continued your exploration of you heatmap and funnel ideas? Those threads look obsolete but your ideas are very interesting. I have spent alot of time trying to score price action and use it to make horizontal lines. I have now ditched the complex heuristics needed to draw actual lines but the raw histogram/heatmap data is still something I am playing around with in discretionary trading. It's amazingly difficult to programmatically draw the same lines you would manually let alone have them be predictive in anyway.

On this note if anyone has some good references or ideas on testing horizontal lines I would appreciate the input. Obviously you can write rules and backtest them but it would be nice to have a more direct mathmatical test that could be optimized in some way.

Since it seems like the EA robot has not been pursued and I wanted a way to find the best inputs I decided to just hack the indicator to make trades in vHands simulations. Then you can use the crude fixed or trailing stops in vHands to back test the rules. Basically run this moded sqaulou indicator in a vHands session and it will enter the buy/sells for you. Please don't expect me to support strategy tester or vHands but if you can trade in vHands and still have a question you can PM me. It obviously would still be ideal to have a real EA to test the CZ stops and Fib TP ideas expressed in the indicator and forum posts.

I also have a way to instantly test multiple fixed SL/TP without strategy tester but it is even more ghetto than my vHands hack.

I am also included a modification of the box drawing script in the first few pages. For whatever reason the Time[0] doesn't work for me in strategy tester so this script uses the drag and drop time which allows me to place manually boxes while running a simulation.

So an EA would be nice but really a multi pair dashboard and some better stats tools would also be nice. Squalou do you mind if I use your code for something like this?
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 CZBoxDragDrop.mq4   1 KB | 805 downloads
File Type: mq4 sqDynamicBreakoutBox_VHandsMod.mq4   48 KB | 712 downloads
  • #2,132
  • Mar 29, 2012 3:33pm Mar 29, 2012 3:33pm
Paradox, welcome aboard.

The algos behind my custom indi are very different.

Squalou seems to have moved on. This system has already been hijacked several times here at the FF, and someone has even tried to sell it online. I can't blame Squalou for ending his participation.

The rest of your comments/questions are out of my comfort zone. I can't code to save my life.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #2,133
  • Edited 4:34pm Mar 29, 2012 4:22pm | Edited 4:34pm
Quoting forexhard
Paradox, welcome aboard.

The algos behind my custom indi are very different.

Squalou seems to have moved on. This system has already been hijacked several times here at the FF, and someone has even tried to sell it online. I can't blame Squalou for ending his participation.

The rest of your comments/questions are out of my comfort zone. I can't code to save my life.

Thanks for the welcome.

Bummer I guess I will have to keep at it then.

Yeah I noticed. He probably won't mind if I use it for a dashboard though? Might end up rewriting a lot anyways.

A few were coding stuff. But the funnel and heatmap where your ideas. What happened to them? Just wondering if I should work out a post to the heatmap thread or is it dead?
  • #2,134
  • Mar 29, 2012 6:40pm Mar 29, 2012 6:40pm
I'm not quite sure what you're asking. I would never stop anyone from posting their ideas. If you have something to add to the Funnel or the Heatmap threads, then go for it.

The codes that Squalou made for this thread may be altered without prior permission, so long as they are posted publicly for everyone's general benefit. It only becomes a sticky issue when the codes are taken elsewhere, or are offered for sale on the web, as I mentioned earlier. So again, if you have something to add to the codes that can benefit all SSBO followers, then go for it.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #2,135
  • Edited 11:38am Mar 30, 2012 12:13am | Edited 11:38am
FH - Thanks for sharing this great simple system.
Squalou - Awesome indi!

I was hooked after the first page so I spent the next couple of weeks going through the entire thread.

I modified the indicator, removing a bunch of params so I can run it in my ea suite. I backtested this using tickdata on EU between 2008-2012 and the results are looking interesting to say the least.

The rules of the EA was pretty basic. Open a trade with a fixed TP/SL in a signle direction between 2008-2012. Obviously change the params for Length,Range, & Buffer. Here are the results if anyone is interested. Also lot size for the test were 0.01 so $200 ~> 2k pips
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiuihlfSSxMcdFJ0WkhZR1RaZ19MUmlqNThhdW43VXc

I am not quite sure what to make of the data yet but it does show that if you come up with some simple rules and stick to them you can make this work over the long run.
  • #2,136
  • Mar 30, 2012 1:53pm Mar 30, 2012 1:53pm
Quoting fxspin
FH - Thanks for sharing this great simple system.
Squalou - Awesome indi!

I was hooked after the first page so I spent the next couple of weeks going through the entire thread.

I modified the indicator, removing a bunch of params so I can run it in my ea suite. I backtested this using tickdata on EU between 2008-2012 and the results are looking interesting to say the least.

The rules of the EA was pretty basic. Open a trade with a fixed TP/SL in a signle direction between 2008-2012. Obviously change the params for Length,Range, & Buffer....
Wow thanks so much for this. I have so many things I want to test around CZs but it is going to take me some time to build the code. I won't be able to even start for a week. So having this data is really nice. Can you run this on any other pairs?

It looks like you are getting a 1.2 profit factor on everything. That seems really good for something so simple on so large a collection of data and MM rules. I am including all the aggregates I have created for your data. Basically I just aggregate all your sl tp runs into one representation of the CZ quality. I do not want to optimize MM since I will be more nuanced in my MM when actually trading.

It also looks like you data confirms that long and thin is best.

MinBoxLengthMaxBoxRangeTradesProfitFactor
35253602 1.429444753
3025108821.424959566
35309962 1.422758482
3030239981.39848404
2525198781.334541201
2025547041.294293105
20205242 1.26457459
20301274641.254985486
2530591091.253990932


What I am hoping to do with some mods to the squalou indicator is to gather more data around the CZ pattern (besides length and height). I also want rank the tradeability of the CZ. Here are some of my thoughts on what would be useful information.

1. Categorize the amount of consolidation in price action previous to the CZ (I think maybe just use ZigZag to check nearest High and low relative to the CZ) I don't want too many datapoints or columns. This could just be a couple numbers.

2.The CZ activity(I think maybe just count fractals or something)

3.Post CZ pre Breakout activity. (So how many bars after CZ but before breakout and How many times did it break the buffer but not give confirmation)


For ranking CZs I am thinking of just 1:1 R:R and signal to signal. So like the stop will be outside the opposite band where it would get a signal to go the opposite way. Then you just count how many breaks before you get a successful break. 1 will be the best CZ but even a 2 or 3 can be made profitable with some skill.


Again thanks for the data.

PS: fxspin: I PMed you a broker question.
Attached File(s)
File Type: rar SSBO_Stats.rar   708 KB | 923 downloads
  • #2,137
  • Mar 30, 2012 3:13pm Mar 30, 2012 3:13pm
Gentlemen, these are all very interesting insights intellectually, but they won't do anything to strengthen your ability to trade a CZ breakout. You can either spend the next 6 weeks pouring over this data, losing lots of sleep along the way and causing yourself fits as you try to curve-fit... or you can spend that same time watching live charts and live price action, and start earning pips pretty much right away. I obviously recommend the latter. My signature says it all.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #2,138
  • Mar 30, 2012 5:14pm Mar 30, 2012 5:14pm
Quoting forexhard
Gentlemen, these are all very interesting insights intellectually, but they won't do anything to strengthen your ability to trade a CZ breakout. You can either spend the next 6 weeks pouring over this data, losing lots of sleep along the way and causing yourself fits as you try to curve-fit... or you can spend that same time watching live charts and live price action, and start earning pips pretty much right away. I obviously recommend the latter. My signature says it all.
True true. I will make sure I continue to trade these live. Thanks for making that clear.

I am not trying to curve fit I am trying to understand the properties of CZs. I know you must trade these at better profits than these results. I hope I could as well but that is because you are taking more into account then the rigid rules. You do recommend playing with the settings to find a sweet spot. I actually find this method of finding sweetspots less stressful and less time consuming then trying to tweak the overall density. Especially if I take this discretionary strategy to pairs that I am less familiar with.


Just take the rigidity of the indicator on CZ identification.

Example:
30p X 40 = Good
30p X 25 = Not so good
18p X 25 = Good

The indicator does not let you filter to just the good in that list. I like to have it looser and interpret the CZ directly but that requires an understanding of what the price action of a CZ means and what a breakout means.

You have talked non negatively about developing an EA for this in the past. Then wouldn't all of these questions and analysis arise. I am not really an EA person but you could do it since breakout strategies rock and this is a gem of a breakout strategy.

If I could share my subjective opinion of price action I would but this is all I have to share at the moment. I will try to offer some live trade analysis in the future if that is what you are asking.

I have read your signature many times. Nowhere in my analysis ideas was I attempting to find directional bias or look at anything more than a few bars before a cz.
  • #2,139
  • Mar 30, 2012 5:36pm Mar 30, 2012 5:36pm
It can all be said in just a few words: The shorter the CZ, and the longer the CZ, the better we like it.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #2,140
  • Mar 30, 2012 8:39pm Mar 30, 2012 8:39pm
Completely agree with FH.

My goal in sharing the data was:

1) Getting people to see that there are many ways of making it work
2) Share something interesting
3) Trying to find the ideal czs

But I guess your quote says it all.
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