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Extreme TMA System

  • #7,381
  • Mar 27, 2012 6:37am Mar 27, 2012 6:37am
Some thoughts about the new Trend Rule:

As you can see from trends "A" and "B" on the H1 chart attached, the entry rules are the same as for a Ranging market. Once we were in these trades, the market moved to Buy Only. I have marked the exits at the close of the first bar that makes the Slope value a Ranging one again (Under 0.50). Of course, you can decide to exit on each swing and not continue to follow the Buy Only trend. If you could get the chance to reenter at the bottom band on every swing, you would probably make more pips by exiting and reentering, but I have noticed that in strong trends, price does not make it all the way back to the bottom band and thus you will miss the remainder of the Trend move. I think this is a good rule that will take advantage of most trending moves, which will add pips to your account that would otherwise be missed waiting for the slope value to Range again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 131 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,382
  • Mar 27, 2012 6:51am Mar 27, 2012 6:51am
Quoting jain028
Al, what do you think, why there is no reaction of stopping to test the trendline? and moreover do you think today or tomorrow market take a down journey in respect to trendline.thx
What trendline? If you are referring to the USIndex trendline, we are very close to it right now as you can see by the attached chart.

By the way, look at the member sentiment index. I have found that the guys that follow USIndex are extremely accurate with their predictions. This morning it went over 70% Bullish. I have not seen such a lopsided sentiment miss as of yet.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USIndex.jpg Size: 201 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,383
  • Mar 27, 2012 6:57am Mar 27, 2012 6:57am
Quoting Favorite
I don't think 20%-40% per month (it is just 1%-2% per day) is greedy and/or unreasonable. As far as remember Al said that a trader has to aim at least 20% per month. At least!
That may all be true, but what you can get out of the market depends on a lot of factors such as luck and skill. I honestly don't believe I have spent enough time as a trader to have sufficient skill to reach those levels. And until I feel I'm a better trader, I'd rather not over stretch myself trying to hit those high targets. I know I'll just blow my account. Better to have small gains now and live to trade another day. The markets will still be here in two years when I've got a lot more experience.

Quoting Favorite
I'm sorry, but I respectfully disagree: it is NOT investing and it will never be like investing, with every trade you take a risk, a loss is possible and nobody guarantees that you'll get even 1%!
Almost all investments also run the risk of a loss. Even gilt-edged government bonds. Ask those Greek bond investors now running around with short hair ;-)

It's only the level of risk that changes.

Quoting Favorite
pixelboy, it is one thing to have 16 charts and it is another thing to trade 16 pairs. Do you really trade 8 of them? Can you open 8 trades at the same time? But if you can run 8 trades at the same time, what about your MM? What if all of them go against you 250+ pips? And it can happen! Most usd pairs have pretty high correlations with EURUSD, if EURUSD goes against you, 7-8 other pairs will go against you too!
No, I'm not in eight trades at the same time. I just scan the pairs looking for opportunities. I think the most I have been in at once was five pairs. If something dramatic happened and all those shot up and hit the stops at 250 pips I would have lost 5%. Of those five pairs, I was in recovery on two of them and I still had a ton of margin.

One thing I have noticed since I've been trading this system is I have a whole new perspective on the markets. This has a lot to do with Al's teaching, but I think using recovery trades in itself make you better understand market movement. The ranges they move in, the patterns they make. You can read it in a book, but watching your 300 pip losing trade come back into profit really hammers it home!

PB
  • #7,384
  • Mar 27, 2012 6:58am Mar 27, 2012 6:58am
Quoting Jikkie
I apologise if this question is a little late in the day, but please Al, could you explain why you prefer an indicator that repaints, TMA v1.4 Color Center Line, to one that does not, TMA True with Distancesxx?

I understand that they match on the current bar, but I do not understand why you prefer to see "fiction" when looking back.

I quite like to see what I perhaps should have done, but if you prefer a repainting indi... I must be missing something here.
Because what is important is the actual moment and the future. By repainting itself, TMA fits itself to actual past pricing and it shows the cycles and wave patterns that are inherent in the market. Remember, price does not repaint. So TMA, by centering over price extremes, shows you these waves much more accurately than any other indicator does. These waves/cycles are real. It is important to understand and feel that they really exist.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,385
  • Mar 27, 2012 6:58am Mar 27, 2012 6:58am
Quoting Alorente
What trendline? If you are referring to the USIndex trendline, we are very close to it right now as you can see by the attached chart.

By the way, look at the member sentiment index. I have found that the guys that follow USIndex are extremely accurate with their predictions. This morning it went over 70% Bullish. I have not seen such a lopsided sentiment miss as of yet.
i am refering to daily euro up trend line, which has broke yesterday. And Additional question,sir , how many days you have to do recovery ? it can be very helpful, so that i decide my leverage and money management.thx
  • #7,386
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:01am Mar 27, 2012 7:01am
Quoting Alorente
What trendline? If you are referring to the USIndex trendline, we are very close to it right now as you can see by the attached chart.

By the way, look at the member sentiment index. I have found that the guys that follow USIndex are extremely accurate with their predictions. This morning it went over 70% Bullish. I have not seen such a lopsided sentiment miss as of yet.
I like the look of that 5 Hour Doji too. Price failed to close below support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Dollarindex.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #7,387
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:05am Mar 27, 2012 7:05am
Quoting jain028
how many days you have to do recovery ? it can be very helpful, so that i decide my leverage and money management.thx
It will completely depend on how fast the market moves. The recovery trades I have done lasted between two and seven days.

PB
  • #7,388
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:05am Mar 27, 2012 7:05am
Quoting pixelboy
That may all be true, but what you can get out of the market depends on a lot of factors such as luck and skill. I honestly don't believe I have spent enough time as a trader to have sufficient skill to reach those levels. And until I feel I'm a better trader, I'd rather not over stretch myself trying to hit those high targets. I know I'll just blow my account. Better to have small gains now and live to trade another day. The markets will still be here in two years when I've got a lot more experience.



Almost all investments also run the risk...
IŽm glad you are now reaping the benefits and understanding the soul of the Recovery system. It does make you understand how the Forex market behaves. Of course, this is a system thought out for the Forex market which is eternally range bound. DonŽt ever try this with stocks like Apple or metals like Gold, which can move infinitely higher.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,389
  • Edited 7:21am Mar 27, 2012 7:05am | Edited 7:21am
  •  Mr C
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts
Quoting Riddermark
Thats what I was doing, but nothing was/is happening. Anyone other thoughts?
Click the mouse 2 times on line, so white dots will appear on line move it then.
Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .
  • #7,390
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:06am Mar 27, 2012 7:06am
Quoting jain028
i am refering to daily euro up trend line, which has broke yesterday. And Additional question,sir , how many days you have to do recovery ? it can be very helpful, so that i decide my leverage and money management.thx
i've tested the recovery..
on E/G and G/J to BE it took about 12 hours (I didn't close it)...
Then it starts to float up to level 4 recovery on GJ, level 3 on E/G and in 10 days ended up with 40+ profit pips..

So it depends on the pair and how powerful the trend...
  • #7,391
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:07am Mar 27, 2012 7:07am
Quoting FocusedonFX
I like the look of that 5 Hour Doji too. Price failed to close below support. Attachment
Yes. I am still very confident that both EU and GU will end up being very profitable trades for me in the end.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,392
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:11am Mar 27, 2012 7:11am
Quoting Alorente
Yes. I am still very confident that both EU and GU will end up being very profitable trades for me in the end.
By the way, regarding these two trades, I have to tell you that I was very tempted yesterday to exit at the bottom band of H1, but from the beginning of the trade I committed to make it an H4 trade. I wanted to try the system on H4 which is the time frame that nanningbob and sabry trade. I am convinced it works in H4 also. WeŽll soon see.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,393
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:12am Mar 27, 2012 7:12am
Quoting Alorente
IŽm glad you are now reaping the benefits and understanding the soul of the Recovery system. It does make you understand how the Forex market behaves. Of course, this is a system thought out for the Forex market which is eternally range bound. DonŽt ever try this with stocks like Apple or metals like Gold, which can move infinitely higher.
Thanks again Al for sharing your thoughts here...it's been quite an education!

Good point about using this with gold and shares. You could apply the same consideration to different currency pairs. In other words, this method when used as a ranging system, would be easier to trade with pairs such as GBPUSD and EURGBP, whereas the trend-following method would be more applicable to commodity pairs (is that the correct name?) such as CADJPY.

PB
  • #7,394
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:14am Mar 27, 2012 7:14am
Quoting jnfer
i've tested the recovery..
on E/G and G/J to BE it took about 12 hours (I didn't close it)...
Then it starts to float up to level 4 recovery on GJ, level 3 on E/G and in 10 days ended up with 40+ profit pips..

So it depends on the pair and how powerful the trend...
You should always close a Recovery trade at BE and not try to profit from it. Remember that you have doubled your position or more and that price can reverse on you with a vengeance. Recovery is made to recover, not to profit from a trade. This is an essential concept that you should NEVER violate or it will come back to bite you.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,395
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:14am Mar 27, 2012 7:14am
Dear Al
I am using a TMAtrue curve together with the standard TMA suggested by you. I find this a good visual help to see if in the past some
moves outside the true band don't come back inside. It would be enteresting to see which is the average
amount of pips of these moves outside the true band in different time frames for long and short. Clearly these moves are
attracted by support and resistance lines as pointed out in your rules. This is really a strong and unique point of your system. The calculation can help to understand if a move is really significant. The use of a repainting TMA doesn't give this additional interesting information.
I have not found yet a non-repainting tma slope indicator to combine with the tmatrue.

Thank you for this thread what you shared really made a difference for me.

Lorenzo
  • #7,396
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:17am Mar 27, 2012 7:17am
Quoting Alorente
You should always close a Recovery trade at BE and not try to profit from it. Remember that you have doubled your position or more and that price can reverse on you with a vengeance. Recovery is made to recover, not to profit from a trade. This is an essential concept that you should NEVER violate or it will come back to bite you.
yes I know... It's my mistake...
I didn't put TP on BE and I'm off chart when the BE happened.
  • #7,397
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:38am Mar 27, 2012 7:38am
  •  Mr C
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts
Entered retracement
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6 15m eurusd.gif Size: 42 KB
Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .
  • #7,398
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:42am Mar 27, 2012 7:42am
Just taken this short on the USD/CAD. Lines up with usual M15 rules, plus the added bonus of the H slope showing a sell only signal. Looking to get out before the news release on CB Consumer Confidence in an hour and a half.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 33 KB
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
  • #7,399
  • Mar 27, 2012 7:51am Mar 27, 2012 7:51am
Quoting pixelboy
Thanks again Al for sharing your thoughts here...it's been quite an education!

Good point about using this with gold and shares. You could apply the same consideration to different currency pairs. In other words, this method when used as a ranging system, would be easier to trade with pairs such as GBPUSD and EURGBP, whereas the trend-following method would be more applicable to commodity pairs (is that the correct name?) such as CADJPY.

PB
Yes, but all currencies range for the simple reason that when they get too overvalued, the governments take measures to lower the exchange rates in order to not lose competitiveness.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,400
  • Mar 27, 2012 8:13am Mar 27, 2012 8:13am
Another question for Al (Many thanks for taking the time to do all this. You truly deserve a medal).

I just closed my trade on the USD/CAD for about 10 pips, as I noticed the price struggling to get through the Coral line. Is it intended to be partly used in this fashion, or did I just jump the gun?

Incidentally, the current M15 bar has re-traced almost all of the last M15 bar.
In boxing, all the champion's results are visible. In forex, talk is cheap.
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