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Quoting emmanuel7788
Trade closed. SL git hit by the H1 spike... -36pips.

Back to waiting game for next setup.
Thanks emmanuel for showing us your losses too.
hi all

just watching the charts
its not quite there but is there potential to go short on this one?

TDI looking at a cross on the 4H
PA at upper channel on both 4H and daily
resistance on the way down is at 1.58 on the Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h.gif Size: 24 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: d.gif Size: 25 KB
Quoting flash4
hi all

just watching the charts
its not quite there but is there potential to go short on this one?

TDI looking at a cross on the 4H
PA at upper channel on both 4H and daily
resistance on the way down is at 1.58 on the Daily
Attachment 929226
Attachment 929227
According to me there is also bearish divergence in both screenshots (especially the 4h chart), anyone else seeing this also?
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Divergence_Chart.pdf   36 KB | 506 downloads
Quoting emmanuel7788
Trade closed. SL git hit by the H1 spike... -36pips.
Today I once again stupidly managed to sell the L and buy the H. Feeling like a total newcomer.

My reasons for 1st entry:
- TDI bounce
- TDI crossed MBL
- LL
- break of Asian low
- enough room to resitance, EMA200, and 50% fib

reasons for 2nd entry:
- TDI cross
- HH
- break of Asian high
- break of fractal
- break of yesterday's high

One thing I noticed when studying Phx62' charts is that sometimes he waits for confirmation by HH/LL and enters on the 2nd candle, and sometimes he immediatly enters on the TDI cross (which can repaint and not cross) without confirmation. I can't see the underlying rule. Probably it is just PA.

Clarification from Phx62 himself or fellow traders would be very appreciated ...

Thank you!

gary
Attached Image
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

Just enter a short EP 1.3343
SL 36pips
TP1 daily pivot
TP2 - 1.3265


Hi Emmanuel,

What Fib indi do u use as shown in
the chart on ur post #6830?
Can u pls share? Thanks...
Lot of pullback candles* on H1 today.
Quite unnerving...

*Meant pin candles, sorry
Quoting gms
Today I once again stupidly managed to sell the L and buy the H. Feeling like a total newcomer.

My reasons for 1st entry:
- TDI bounce
- TDI crossed MBL
- LL
- break of Asian low
- enough room to resitance, EMA200, and 50% fib

reasons for 2nd entry:
- TDI cross
- HH
- break of Asian high
- break of fractal
- break of yesterday's high

One thing I noticed when studying Phx62' charts is that sometimes he waits for confirmation by HH/LL and enters on the 2nd candle, and sometimes he immediatly enters on the TDI cross (which can repaint and not...
Higher lows and lower highs on 1hr are in themselves strong signals (yes of course take care if you have had 3 legs up/down and/or hitting a key SR level).

I was reading the discussion about sells this morning and was left scratching my head just a little. D close yesterday was solid up and broke through 62% fib and the SR level I had identified. So focus for me was on buys. Then a couple of hours ago a strong rejection of move up and inside neg close with divergence changed that to signal a sell, albeit against the D candles so more of a scalp sell.

Hopefully T's close will give better indication of direction.
Quoting thrax
Hi,

I took EURJPY H4 long trade.
Reasons:
We are in uptrend
Te price has just turned from the rising trendline
We had a nice hammer (the last red candle before the blue ones)
TDI cross confirmation

Let see how it unfolds.
thrax
Just an update: I exited the position in two parts resulting 117 and 152 pips respetively.

Now I entered AUDUSD H4 short, let's see.
thrax
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY_H4_strategy name_20120327160046.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_H4_strategy name_20120327160511.gif Size: 25 KB
Quoting Vantage
Higher lows and lower highs on 1hr are in themselves strong signals (yes of course take care if you have had 3 legs up/down and/or hitting a key SR level).

I was reading the discussion about sells this morning and was left scratching my head just a little. D close yesterday was solid up and broke through 62% fib and the SR level I had identified. So focus for me was on buys. Then a couple of hours ago a strong rejection of move up and inside neg close with divergence changed that to signal a sell, albeit against the D candles so more of a scalp...
Tell me about it. (knocking my head against a wall...).

EURUSD was extremely overbought and there were some indications of short. But since signal was not clear I luckily stayed out. As you said, D1 is extremely bullish.
USDJPY short was clear short on min30, partially even h1. Got to +15, but in the end hit SL -28. :-(


Now, again short seems to be forming? :-) Thanks... I'll call it sideways and go out.


BR
Quoting alphachi
Hi Emmanuel,

What Fib indi do u use as shown in
the chart on ur post #6830?
Can u pls share? Thanks...
Hi alphachi,

I use the standard MT4 Fibo tool. You just need to customise it with additional retracement and extension levels. See example.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MT4 Fibo tool .png Size: 128 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
2 reversal candles gbpusd 4h + TDI cross
Is there a potential short here?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.png Size: 22 KB
Quoting gms
Today I once again stupidly managed to sell the L and buy the H. Feeling like a total newcomer.

My reasons for 1st entry:
- TDI bounce
- TDI crossed MBL
- LL
- break of Asian low
- enough room to resitance, EMA200, and 50% fib

reasons for 2nd entry:
- TDI cross
- HH
- break of Asian high
- break of fractal
- break of yesterday's high

One thing I noticed when studying Phx62' charts is that sometimes he waits for confirmation by HH/LL and enters on the 2nd candle, and sometimes he immediatly enters on the TDI cross (which can repaint and not...
The rules of my trading plan (based on the TMS system) call for entries to be on the 1st or 2nd candle following a change in color of the APB candles. When I enter on the 1st candle it is usually because there has been a pullback on the previous candle, even if that candle did not change color. There are times I make an aggressive entry before the TDI actually makes the crossover but that is based on PA and/or S&R.....making those decisions are based on many hours of chart time.

Today I made 3 small trades on the M15....all on TDI crosses at the beginning of the 2nd candle.....
First trade....entered short...price moved down about 20 pips and reversed, out at BE.
Second trade...I went long on TDI cross...price moved up about 40 pips and reversed.....out with +19.
Third trade....went short on TDI cross....price moved down about 40 pips and reversed....closed for +30.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012.3.27 EU.gif Size: 34 KB
Quoting Phx62
The rules of my trading plan (based on the TMS system) call for entries to be on the 1st or 2nd candle following a change in color of the APB candles. When I enter on the 1st candle it is usually because there has been a pullback on the previous candle, even if that candle did not change color. There are times I make an aggressive entry before the TDI actually makes the crossover but that is based on PA and/or S&R.....making those decisions are based on many hours of chart time.

Today I made 3 small trades on the M15....all on TDI crosses at...
Hi Phx62

Can you please explain why you did it on the 15 min chart and not the 1h chart. if you had traded the 1 hour chart you would get 2 wrong signals....

how do you decide wether you will trade the 1h or 15 min chart?

thanks
Quoting Phx62
The rules of my trading plan (based on the TMS system) call for entries to be on the 1st or 2nd candle following a change in color of the APB candles. When I enter on the 1st candle it is usually because there has been a pullback on the previous candle, even if that candle did not change color. There are times I make an aggressive entry before the TDI actually makes the crossover but that is based on PA and/or S&R.....making those decisions are based on many hours of chart time.

Today I made 3 small trades on the M15....all on TDI crosses at the...
Great Result as usual Phx62...
I read a comment from you in old post that if Signal line Direction ( red line) have strong direction ...and the green RSI line approach the signal line it will probably bounce or if it cross the red will likely not a valid one
after spending some time reading the TDI with above principle i found my self able to filter a lot of false cross and anticipate bounces ...this improve my result so far at least but me in the positive side i am still have missing some information regrading to Price behavior itself ... and some discipline
i have a question for you about integrate previous day high low in your plan ... because i found a lot of false BO for this level last weeks ..
Quoting munirpt
Hi Phx62

Can you please explain why you did it on the 15 min chart and not the 1h chart. if you had traded the 1 hour chart you would get 2 wrong signals....

how do you decide wether you will trade the 1h or 15 min chart?

thanks
I have been doing some testing using M15 entries while monitoring the H1 charts....trying to get earlier entries but still not get caught in the whipsaws of the smaller time frame......still a work in progress.

If you look at your H1 chart, only the first BE trade was not signaled with a cross of the TDI. The other 2 trades WERE signaled on the H1 chart....trade 2 was signaled at the same time and trade 3 was signaled an hour later.....the problem is that the market is ranging today and only moved a total of 68 pips so far.....in a ranging market you have to exit for smaller pips, BE or even small losses....you just have to manage your money.
Quoting HITMAN
Great Result as usual Phx62...
I read a comment from you in old post that if Signal line Direction ( red line) have strong direction ...and the green RSI line approach the signal line it will probably bounce or if it cross the red will likely not a valid one
after spending some time reading the TDI with above principle i found my self able to filter a lot of false cross and anticipate bounces ...this improve my result so far at least but me in the positive side i am still have missing some information regrading to Price behavior itself ... and...
The previous days high or low are just more support or resistance areas...not always reliable but something one needs to be aware of. I have a very successful friend/mentor who will not enter a trade unless the previous days high or low have been broken and tested, but he mostly trades the daily/weekly time frames.....nothing less than the H4.
Quoting EvoPips
Is there a potential short here?
Hi,

for me this is not a valid short setup, because price is above the EMA(200) and so I would consider it as a countertrend trade. And I like following the trend.

Take care,thrax
My first post at FF.

First of all GREAT thread! I read most of the TMS thread and have almost completed this one. I've been lurking and reading almost constantly the last 2 months or so. I've also opened a demo account with Oanda and trade in the US in the CST time zone. Due to work and sleep schedule restraints, I've limited my trading to the 4H charts and the associated 4H swing method.

I'd like to introduce myself and give a little background on my progression. I began by completing babypips. Then started demo trading TMS by trying to be subjective about the TDI crosses. With no real knowledge of PA, I was failing miserably. I then began trading ALL crosses of the TDI. This worked for a while, until the market started ranging. Then I started losing again. My money management strategy has, so far, kept me from blowing my demo account. I limited myself to a realistic starting balance, and trade it as if it is my real money and not risking any more than 4% per trade (although, once I became proficient at position sizing, I just trade flat 0.1 lots on everything now to make it a little easier). I'm extremely competitive, so this is quite easy for me as the pure concept of winning (or growth of account if you prefer) is more important to me than the $$ figures won/lost. I'm an engineer by trade, so I'm a very technical person and can tend to overanalyze sometimes.

With all that said, here are my current trades, taken this morning on the 4H chart. Any feedback/criticism will be much appreciated, as I think I can learn quicker through critiques.

All stops set at last swing high/low.

AUD/USD - Short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3_27_12 au short.gif Size: 30 KB


Entered at open of 08:00 (EST) candle

Reasons for trade:

  1. Previous break of blue bands
  2. TDI cross, good slope
  3. Candle color change
  4. Previous candle was a pullback candle
  5. Downtrend, both channel and 60EMA
  6. Next daily resistance about 100 pips away


Currently +20 pips.

NZD/USD - Short

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3_27_12 nu short.gif Size: 31 KB


Entered at open of 08:00 (EST) candle

Reasons for trade:

  1. Same as above except:
  2. Next daily resistance is about 60 pips away


Currently +4 pips.

LOSING TRADES
AU and NU - Entered early, and SL hit by the previously mentioned pullback candles/spikes/stop hunting SOBs . Whatever you want to call it. -42 pips and -24 pips respectively. Still think I'm on the right side, so I re-entered when I saw the opportunity.

GU - Taken a little early on break of the channel. No break of the blue bands, so I monitored closely. Closed when it retraced at -17 pips. It actually retraced much further before I caught it, but it moved back in my direction. I didn't like the PA at that point, so I closed and am waiting for a better re-entry point.


Any and all comments welcome. Thanks, and I hope to be filling my wheelbarrow soon!

Quoting EvoPips
Is there a potential short here?
Yes I see it as a potential reversal for a counter-trade to the 1.5660 zone max.
Have been building multi-entry short position on G/U. 1.6000 zone has not been taken, but my SL is just over 1.6000 atm.
When tomorrow I see PA taking this pair below 1.5930 zone I shall interpret it as an additional signal to load more shorts. Below 1.5750 I shall set trailing stop and let the market take me out, unless I see some convincing swing to the upside again, which still is the trend direction on a HTs.
Celebrating discipline.
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