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Extreme TMA System

  • #7,321
  • Mar 27, 2012 2:36am Mar 27, 2012 2:36am
Hi AL,Thx to this system i am up 50 %, i have been using this system on m15, it works like charm. i have not done recovery,because condition did'nt arrive on m15. but i have a fear, suppose if condition like, when usd swap rates lower or boj pumps up dollar, when market moves 200 - 300( even 600 pips when boj boost dollar) pips easily. then what to do? even recovery won't work .
  • #7,322
  • Mar 27, 2012 2:52am Mar 27, 2012 2:52am
Quoting jain028
Hi AL, i have been using this system on m15, it works like charm. i have not done recovery,because condition did'nt arrive on m15. but i have a fear, suppose if condition like, when usd swap rates lower or boj pumps up dollar, when market moves 200 - 300( even 600 pips when boj boost dollar) pips easily. then what to do? even recovery won't work .
Take your loss and move on. There are times you dont use recovery especially when the CHF bank is going to hold the price of its currency no matter what. I was lucky and was on the right side of those trades. To me 2-300 is not much but that is how I trade and am used to such things. To another person that is a scary moment. You have to trade in a comfort zone or you will make serious mistakes. 1% is my line drawn in the sand. So my question to you is, at what point does the trade equal 1% of your account? Once you answer that question then you know what an acceptable loss would be and you are prepared to take it then. Is 1% at 100 pips, 300 pips, 500 pips, etc. for you? Once you establish your money management you then enter a comfortable way to trade. So if you say I hit 1% at 50 pips, you cant do recovery. Take the SL and move on. If you say 1% is at 500 pips then you have room to trade. That I think is the best way to answer your question. Once you answer that you then are comfortable with your trading method and money management. Al probably will have some ideas to add to this.
  • #7,323
  • Mar 27, 2012 2:57am Mar 27, 2012 2:57am
Quoting nanningbob
Take your loss and move on. There are times you dont use recovery especially when the CHF bank is going to hold the price of its currency no matter what. I was lucky and was on the right side of those trades. To me 2-300 is not much but that is how I trade and am used to such things. To another person that is a scary moment. You have to trade in a comfort zone or you will make serious mistakes. 1% is my line drawn in the sand. So my question to you is, at what point does the trade equal 1% of your account? Once you answer that question then you...
Thx Mr. NanningBob, I am using 5% per position and not more than 20% of my equity with 1:50 leverage.thx
  • #7,324
  • Mar 27, 2012 2:59am Mar 27, 2012 2:59am
Quoting jain028
Hi AL,Thx to this system i am up 50 %, i have been using this system on m15, it works like charm. i have not done recovery,because condition did'nt arrive on m15. but i have a fear, suppose if condition like, when usd swap rates lower or boj pumps up dollar, when market moves 200 - 300( even 600 pips when boj boost dollar) pips easily. then what to do? even recovery won't work .
Thatīs why I use an Emergency stop loss at -100. Recovery is not for every situation. There are times when taking a loss is the wise thing to do.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,325
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:02am Mar 27, 2012 3:02am
Quoting Alorente
Thatīs why I use an Emergency stop loss at -100. Recovery is not for every situation. There are times when taking a loss is the wise thing to do.
thx sir!
  • #7,326
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:04am Mar 27, 2012 3:04am
MT4 build 418 apparently has some major problems. That may be the reason for the crashing.

If you can reinstall and use an earlier version do so, otherwise I would think 419 will arrive very soon.

Memory issues - tools, options, charts - reduce the default number of bars in chart and in history. I use 5000 most of the time.

Also in marketwatch, right click where it says "symbol" and select "hide all" from the dropdown. If you later want to add a chart for an additional instrument, remember you may need to temporarily select "show all" so you can find what you need. Then revert to "hide all".
  • #7,327
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:07am Mar 27, 2012 3:07am
Quoting nanningbob
What is the difference between a single hard SL or a multiple-level recovery. Nothing. You are both trading a range. If you set your SL at 30 and your TP at 60. Your range is 90 pips. If I trade with a range of 1000 pips, it is still a range. It is not gambling or doubling your bets. You trade with smaller lots and you can increase your range. When you increase your range you increase your odds of becoming successful. Let us say your are willing to risk 1% of your account and your account is 2000 dollars. That means 1% equals 20 dollars. With me...
I am not talking about martingale or gambling or doubling up. I am justing pointing out a concept that by one name is frown upon and by another name treated as a saviour of a trade in drawdown. Your own argument above in favour of recovery points out the fallacy of the system. Why is it acceptable to be down 2000 pips at $0.01/pip and not at $10.00/pip. Is it because someone said so or is it because the ouch factor of $20.00 is more acceptable than $200,000? If a system is sound, the reasons for and acceptance of a 2,000 (or any number) pip drawdown should apply equally to a trade regardless if it's $0.01/pip or $10.00/pip.

BTW if you analysis the operations of a casino and the retail forex market you will be surprise how much the 2 have in common.
  • #7,328
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:07am Mar 27, 2012 3:07am
Quoting OzFXtrader82
Thanks anyway for your help nanningbob. I might just have to stick with the broker I'm using on demo as I don't want to waste too much time with these problems with no obvious fixes.

John
I had to reinstall MT4(Go Markets real and demo) and now with same problem.The way to improve situation is to have a copy of indi decompiiled with the latest build 418.Perhaps Crodzilla would be so kind and helps us.
Best Regards
  • #7,329
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:12am Mar 27, 2012 3:12am
Quoting nanningbob
My last post, we are not doing that other thread again. What I said and what other people say I said are two different things. My biggest problem is misrepresentation. If you trade like I do you simply are looking for % increase of the account. My biggest losses sometimes exceed 1% but are never bigger than 1.5%. The vast majority of my losses are around .2-.4% range My win ratio is very high. The system works on any amount of money because the percentages remain the same. I did say with larger amounts of money, which I do trade but is not for public...
I agree, just curious, if losses are a maximum of 1.5% ie. $75 n $5,000 equity, how much do u gain in profits as percentage of equity from each trade? And how many trades do you average daily?
  • #7,330
  • Edited 3:27am Mar 27, 2012 3:13am | Edited 3:27am
My thoughts on, "the EURUSD isn't falling like the TMA says it should!", "Waaa! I'm 150 pips into recovery!", "my stops keep getting hit", "this system doesn't work", etc...

1. if you're not able to handle a 300 to 400 pip recovery trade and still have open positions in other pairs, then you are simply trading with a much too high position size. Simple as that. Since I've been trading this system, I've moved my position sizing to something much closer to what Nanningbob uses and guess what, it's a lovely stress-free life! To be specific, a 50 pip move equates to 0.2% of my account. This means I can handle a level 4 recovery with less than 5% draw-down which in turn means I can happily trade other pairs and make some profits while the recovery is working out.

2. Keep in mind that you are trading the H4 TMA bands, so you have got to have the patience to allow price to move. This can take 50 or more H4 bars (i.e. over a week). Of course, if you're as skilled in this method as Al, you can scalp your way down the channel and take many sets of profits. But if you're looking to capture the big move in one trade then you must have patience. And patience works both ways: you have to have the patience to wait out a week's draw-down until the trade turns.

3. This is a range trading system so when a pair trends you either have to sit tight, enter recovery or, recognise it, take a loss and change tack. I know it's not what we are trading here, but personally I think the TMA bands make a great trend trading system: they point in the right direction!

4. Try adding a simple trend line to the chart and only enter after the line and has been broken and re-tested from the other side. You'll miss a few entries, but it will help reduce early entries.

5. In this thread (similar strategy and indicators) the entry method involves placing a pending order at the TMA band when the price is outside. This at least gives it a chance to start reversing.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=275482

PB
  • #7,331
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:14am Mar 27, 2012 3:14am
dear Mr.nanningbob, Mr.Alfredo :


as previous post, saying that " we cannot fight strong fundamental moves......", my question about EURUSD, GBPUSD, yesterday move to north, does we meet a strong fundamental move now after Fed chairman speaking at US ??

or we need patience, wait for further developing of market action ??

what a dilemma scene !

SCOTT
  • #7,332
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:22am Mar 27, 2012 3:22am
Quoting Alorente
Thatīs why I use an Emergency stop loss at -100. Recovery is not for every situation. There are times when taking a loss is the wise thing to do.
I have my emergency stop set at 250 pips (which equates to 1%) to handle the situation where the BOJ suddenly shoots the dollar up 2000 pips or whatever. You must have an emergency brake in this game!

PB
  • #7,333
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:28am Mar 27, 2012 3:28am
Quoting pixelboy
Since I've been trading this system, I've moved my position sizing to something much closer to what Nanningbob uses and guess what, it's a lovely stress-free life! To be specific, a 50 pip move equates to 0.2% of my account. This means I can handle a level 4 recovery with less than 5% draw-down which in turn means I can happily trade other pairs and make some profits while the recovery is working out.
That means that to make 1% profit you have to make 250 pips, right?

Of course, every trader has his own MM, but in my opinion it is a little too much...

How many pips do you have to make to get 5% per week? 1,250 pips? Is it possible? I don't think so!


"A lovely stress-free life" sounds great, but our main purpose here is to make money.

Just my two cents.
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #7,334
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:38am Mar 27, 2012 3:38am
http://i40.tinypic.com/2mye05u.jpg

short again in eurusd.

SL in 1.33731 and TP 1.32761

regards
MY telegram channel: https://t.me/https://t.me/tnavieurusd
  • #7,335
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:47am Mar 27, 2012 3:47am
As long as 79.8 holds on the Dollar Index I'll hold my positions. Short E/U, G/U and long U/CH
  • #7,336
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:50am Mar 27, 2012 3:50am
GU - I wonder if it will make the 1.60 level ?
  • #7,337
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:50am Mar 27, 2012 3:50am
Quoting pixelboy
My thoughts on, "the EURUSD isn't falling like the TMA says it should!", "Waaa! I'm 150 pips into recovery!", "my stops keep getting hit", "this system doesn't work", etc...

1. if you're not able to handle a 300 to 400 pip recovery trade and still have open positions in other pairs, then you are simply trading with a much too high position size. Simple as that. Since I've been trading this system, I've moved my position sizing to something much closer to what Nanningbob uses and guess what, it's a lovely stress-free life! To be specific,...
I remember that at the beginning you were having problems mentally adapting to recovery. Iīm glad you found the trade size level that has made it confortable for you.

The Extreme TMA system is definitely a great Range system, but it can also be an excellent trend system. After all, it clearly tells you when the market is "Ranging", "Buy Only" or "Sell Only". The rules on Post 1 are thought out for a ranging system, but they can easily be adapted to a trending one. If you all want, and if you think it will not confuse matters, I can post Trending rules on Post 1 that will be simple to follow.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,338
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:53am Mar 27, 2012 3:53am
Quoting scott-ibm
dear Mr.nanningbob, Mr.Alfredo :


as previous post, saying that " we cannot fight strong fundamental moves......", my question about EURUSD, GBPUSD, yesterday move to north, does we meet a strong fundamental move now after Fed chairman speaking at US ??

or we need patience, wait for further developing of market action ??

what a dilemma scene !

SCOTT
I donīt believe Bernankeīs comments have changed the fundamentals of EU, GU or USD. If USIndex breaks down technically, I may think differently, but as of now, I donīt see any reason to change strategy.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,339
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:54am Mar 27, 2012 3:54am
Do not let fear and doubt are in your trading, even when you mistake a trading .... Trading is a game and so you understand ... free to enter the position when you think and go whether the loss or gain
  • #7,340
  • Mar 27, 2012 3:55am Mar 27, 2012 3:55am
Quoting FocusedonFX
As long as 79.8 holds on the Dollar Index I'll hold my positions. Short E/U, G/U and long U/CH
You mean 78.8.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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