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Extreme TMA System

  • #7,261
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:44pm Mar 26, 2012 3:44pm
Quoting Alorente
In the case of these 2, recovery will probably not be an option for me. If USIndex breaks the uptrend line, Iīm out for good.

I still donīt believe it for a second though. My weekly study of EU which I am attaching, still shows price under the H&S neckline and RSI never had a divergence at 1.26 and the weekly almost always does before the final low. I still expect EU to not only test 1.26 but break it.
Alfredo,

This will be my last post today, because I know I may be sounding argumentative. It is not my intention. I really want to understand and grasp your trading style.

But this post is most confusing. If you believe in Recovery and you "don't believe for a second" that the USD is going to break down, why exit? I thought the point of Recovery was to stay in a trade that you still believe in. I know this one technical study of the USD chart may be giving an 'exit' signal. But against "all of your studies" that you still believe in it does not seem like a reason in and of itself.

If this is a valid exit, then some explanation needs to be added to the rules so it is clear when to apply Recovery and when to simply close the trade.

Again, my intent is understanding and clarification, not confrontation.

Your Friend,

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #7,262
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:50pm Mar 26, 2012 3:50pm
yes..........1.3500ish, with the occassional retracement generating false hope for those who are short

but i could be wrong

Quoting Jbomb21990
Is this stinkin Euro just going to up FOREVER?????
  • #7,263
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:55pm Mar 26, 2012 3:55pm
Quoting faxxion
Alfredo,

This will be my last post today, because I know I may be sounding argumentative. It is not my intention. I really want to understand and grasp your trading style.

But this post is most confusing. If you believe in Recovery and you "don't believe for a second" that the USD is going to break down, why exit? I thought the point of Recovery was to stay in a trade that you still believe in. I know this one technical study of the USD chart may be giving an 'exit' signal. But against "all of your studies" that you still believe in...
Sorry. I didnīt explain myself correctly. I donīt believe for a second that USIndex will break the up trendline. That is what I meant. There are too many technicals pointing in the same direction for that to happen. Can it happen? Sure, anything can happen, but the probability is that it will not, and that is basically what we do in this business, play the probabilities.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,264
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:00pm Mar 26, 2012 4:00pm
Can some one please share this indicator??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,265
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:09pm Mar 26, 2012 4:09pm
  •  Mr C
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts
I spent two weeks of reading to get up to speed on this forum to not ask questions that have been already answered and it's so clear that I have not asked a question yet, it's all there so is the indicator 1st post untill you read it it does not sink in.
Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .
  • #7,266
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:09pm Mar 26, 2012 4:09pm
Something to note on my personal experiences is in the last year I have had more than one position go down -1,000 pips (at the same time) and all went back to break even. Can a position go down even more than that? Sure, but like Al said odds are against it.

Note - I didn't use Recovery for those because I didn't know about Recovery back then. I just let them ride on a signal buy/sell until they came back. So these 200 pip negative trades are relatively small by comparison. Still no fun but just something to note.

Best regards.
  • #7,267
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:11pm Mar 26, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting LuckyLurker
I'm around -37 at the moment on my current EU trade. I've got a ton of margin for recovery if needed. Also plenty for other trades on other pairs. This is a business. For new traders, sure use a SL, but if you have experience and are in control, you know what to do and when you should do it. Losses are indeed part of the game. I certainly don't bring my entire business to a halt if one little trade goes bad though. In my years of trading I usually allow 200 pips of breath for any trade I enter, thus my margin investment is based off that. With that...
what you just said it adds up pretty much to nothing with all do respect in my humble opinion.. it sounds to me your more busy making recoveries than actually making any money. the way you guys attempt at every extreams you leave yourself open to more trades on its way to recovery specially with your avg loss of 50 or so would need a 50+ profit taking with the market that makes a PB or a stop and go at every avg50 pips or so.
the bottom line is to make money consistently and not recovering consistently. i hope your one of a kind motionless behavior is the necessary ingredients to succeed.

now i got a question for you and Al..
what do you guys do on your winning trades when you eventually get out for profit and the sob still runs after a hiccup.. what do you do: jump on it again to only get topped off most likely? or reverse the beast to get faked out and give back what you earned earlier on your way to recovery again perhaps?
the reason i ask such questions is bcz of Al's post earlier about his struggles with exit as to not exit prematurely so he has to enter again to get faked out and so on.. same kind of deal could go when one exits in profit while pa can still do many things and get you in same kind of troubles.
just some simple questions.. no intention to start anything here, but it seems to me there is so much discretion in here that is making difficulties for many people and i believe still is for the OP himself. (no intention to offend you Al, its just my take out of your comments tonight).
  • #7,268
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:13pm Mar 26, 2012 4:13pm
Hi folks, just got home from work, but still have not had time to read the latest pages... Anyone still holding EURO short positions ?

I've just entered short in EU, AJ, EJ, as they ALL present TMA Slope AND Trix divergence. Anyone as well ?

Let's see how it goes...
  • #7,269
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:17pm Mar 26, 2012 4:17pm
Quoting P.Dean
what you just said it adds up pretty much to nothing with all do respect in my humble opinion.. it sounds to me your more busy making recoveries than actually making any money. the way you guys attempt at every extreams you leave yourself open to more trades on its way to recovery specially your avg loss of 50 or so would need a 50+ profit taking with the market that makes a PB or a stop and go at every avg50 pips or so.
the bottom line is to make money.. and i hope your one of a kind motionless behavior is the necessary ingredients to succeed.

now...
How would it be possible to exit and change your mind and reenter? The rules of the system would not be valid at that time. I would wait for the rules to again be valid in order to enter a trade again. Maybe I donīt understand what you are trying to ask me. I just think it falls of its own weight. Rules not valid = no entry.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,270
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:18pm Mar 26, 2012 4:18pm
Quoting beto21_cwb
Hi folks, just got home from work, but still have not had time to read the latest pages... Anyone still holding EURO short positions ?

I've just entered short in EU, AJ, EJ, as they ALL present TMA Slope AND Trix divergence. Anyone as well ?

Let's see how it goes...
Yes. If you read the last 20 posts or so, you will see we are debating that subject.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,271
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:28pm Mar 26, 2012 4:28pm
Quoting Alorente
How would it be possible to exit and change your mind and reenter? The rules of the system would not be valid at that time. I would wait for the rules to again be valid in order to enter a trade again. Maybe I donīt understand what you are trying to ask me. I just think it falls of its own weight. Rules not valid = no entry.
well i was refering to the ones that does fall into your rules.. it is possible in some scenarios to exit for profit and again get a signal.. if that happens what do you do if you have missed timed a exit profit when trade is still good..
your problem is that you don't like to get spike and watch it run in your direction for 200-300 pips.. am i correct.. so don't you think the same thing can happen in reverse of the coin.. and what you do then, you watch it? bcz you wait for your rules to me meet or when you get a signal you get on it in the middle of trend?..
  • #7,272
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:28pm Mar 26, 2012 4:28pm
The new packet file is on Page 1 Post 1. It contains the new Version 27 of the Dashboard. We have added Heiken Ashi color candle change confirmation in order to get a Green Buy or a Red Sell. This week we noticed we were getting many premature Buys and Sells and price just kept going even further away form the bands. With version 27, the system will wait till a Heiken Ashi candle changes color before issuing a signal.

Also in the packet is Paradoxīs Extreme TMAInfo indi with more slope and TMA size information and Shahīs new Version 15 Slope indi that will give us 3 slope values on the right side. I also included a couple of Xcel sheets that you may find helpful. New templates are also included. Enjoy.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,273
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:30pm Mar 26, 2012 4:30pm
Quoting P.Dean
what you just said it adds up pretty much to nothing with all do respect in my humble opinion.. it sounds to me your more busy making recoveries than actually making any money. the way you guys attempt at every extreams you leave yourself open to more trades on its way to recovery specially with your avg loss of 50 or so would need a 50+ profit taking with the market that makes a PB or a stop and go at every avg50 pips or so.
the bottom line is to make money consistently and not recovering consistently. i hope your one of a kind motionless behavior...
Very rarely am I in recovery my friend. However, I enter each trade with the assumption that I might be. I'm sorry you missed the solid lesson I presented. I thought it was crystal clear.

Also, not tooting horns or anything, but Forex has been a substantial supplement to my yearly income since 2005.
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #7,274
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:32pm Mar 26, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting P.Dean
well i was refering to the ones that does fall into your rules.. it is possible in some scenarios to exit for profit and again get a signal.. if that happens what do you do if you have missed timed a exit profit when trade is still good..
your problem is that you don't like to get spike and watch it run in your direction for 200-300 pips.. am i correct.. so don't you think the same thing can happen in reverse of the coin.. and what you do then, you watch it? bcz you wait for your rules to me meet or when you get a signal you get on it in the middle...
I cannot see how it is possible to take profit and still get a signal after I do. I would be inside the outer band at that point...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,275
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:37pm Mar 26, 2012 4:37pm
  •  Mr C
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts
Only about 60 pips away from 15M TMA on daily chart could see reversal.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .
  • #7,276
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:41pm Mar 26, 2012 4:41pm
Dean, when I click on your name, I see your YTD return and a bunch of trades and graphs. Are these your actual trades? How come all the numbers are negative? All the trades seem to be losers. You are down -69% for the year? There has to be a mistake. You seem to be an experienced trader from your comments.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,277
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:43pm Mar 26, 2012 4:43pm
Quoting Alorente
I cannot see how it is possible to take profit and still get a signal after I do. I would be inside the outer band at that point...
so you settle for lesser profit.. out at mid band or opposite band.. which in 5m its normally under 30 pips. so if thats correct then your profit taking is less than your avg loss when you got to at some point throw in the towel.
if again that stands correct the only way to success with this system is to have a very high hit ratio and never have a major recovery loss 3rd level or so as faxxion was talking about.
  • #7,278
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:54pm Mar 26, 2012 4:54pm
Is impossible have a deal.
Becuase exist many kind of traders here.
Demo traders with -5.000 pips tolerance for recovery..........
Real Traders with real money.........
Scalper and swing traders........
Traders with clear rules and traders who changes the rules in every trade.
Traders who follow this system only and others who uses a lot of different indicators.
Ego traders and cerebral traders.
Traders who uses 0.001 lot and 1 lot trader.
Complete different skills.

Indicators always be lagging.
Then no one system can give complete solution for 100% of us.
The holy grail is not this system and any another system.
The holy grail exist ........ and be between both ears.
Use !!
  • #7,279
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:54pm Mar 26, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting Alorente
Dean, when I click on your name, I see your YTD return and a bunch of trades and graphs. Are these your actual trades? How come all the numbers are negative? All the trades seem to be losers. You are down -69% for the year? There has to be a mistake. You seem to be an experienced trader from your comments.
thanks for pointing that out Al, i know it was coming.. lol
no no its no mistake its all true if that makes you feel any better.. yes i am down -69% on this small explorer account and about 30% down on my two other two big accounts.
the reason is i have not been trading full time yet this year and my style requires full time attention in order to capture most if not all opportunities that produces. so i have trade it just when i could.. the other reason is the cycle thing that i talked about earlier every trader could got through losing one, kind of unlucky to end up with more of a losing ones than winner, so that could be the reason too but i give 20% share to that only.
oh i forgot.. the good news is that i will be starting to be full time starting this week as i have announced this am to my followers in my thread.

so now that you brought that up.. can i ask you a question?
  • #7,280
  • Mar 26, 2012 4:58pm Mar 26, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting Jbomb21990
Is this stinkin Euro just going to up FOREVER?????
Please stop being in your "short temporary planet". Don't you know that you can go long also? Is that stinking? Going long and making money?
One of rule number one in trading (there are many rule number one..): don't get married to your position
As simple as that
Guys, if it was so simple we all would be billionaire.
Go and have a look at my Friday Day EU chart and its trend line and its targets. Did I design that chart knowing something? No, just geometry and nothing else
Was I cautious today going short? Yessssssssssssss!!!
Best
Max
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