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Extreme TMA System

  • #7,241
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:33pm Mar 26, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting P.Dean
you just opened a can of worms Al.. bcz this little statement by itself needs a whole new system of when where and how would one know when and if to cut the loss and what the hell the rules are and and and..
So Dean, how do you personally handle the typical trade where a spike stops you out and the trade still looks great. Do you reenter or let it go?
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,242
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:39pm Mar 26, 2012 2:39pm
Quoting rivtrader
I'm not short yet, I have a pending order for when it comes down. But if you are already short then I guess you will have to watch R3 carefully. R3 is at around 1.3353 but it can go above it some pips before coming down. If it does come down from there. If it takes you out, you can always do a reentry when the pa gets bearish.
Looks like we're gonna find out shortly if she holds. 1.3355 just hit.
  • #7,243
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:42pm Mar 26, 2012 2:42pm
Quoting Surfnomad
Hello AL I appreciate all that you share with us and if you could please clarify what you meant in the section I highlighted blue, I see the trendline "wall" you are referring to on my daily chart, are you talking about 3 daily candle close beyond that and if not what timeframe candles are you talking about closing beyond the "wall".

Thanks Robert
What I do is look at previous instances where the walls were pierced. I like to use H4 or D1 candles to determine a wall broken. In the D1 chart, there is one instance where 2 D1 candles closed beyond the wall and price returned to the channel. The other measure is distance past the channel wall. If tonightīs candle closes 30 pips beyond the wall, that may be enough to call it quits. It looks pretty bad now, as I write this, especially if the S&P closes in 15 minutes running away with a new high.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,244
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:47pm Mar 26, 2012 2:47pm
Quoting Alorente
So Dean, how do you personally handle the typical trade where a spike stops you out and the trade still looks great. Do you reenter or let it go?
Hello Alfredo,

Please do not worry about this guy. Look at his Trade Explorer, he is down 63.9% this year. There is difference between constructive criticism and negativity.

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #7,245
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:55pm Mar 26, 2012 2:55pm
Quoting Alorente
What I do is look at previous instances where the walls were pierced. I like to use H4 or D1 candles to determine a wall broken. In the D1 chart, there is one instance where 2 D1 candles closed beyond the wall and price returned to the channel. The other measure is distance past the channel wall. If tonightīs candle closes 30 pips beyond the wall, that may be enough to call it quits. It looks pretty bad now, as I write this, especially if the S&P closes in 15 minutes running away with a new high.

Thank you for your prompt reply Al. This thing has to run out of gas eventually and I am hoping it's sooner than later
  • #7,246
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:57pm Mar 26, 2012 2:57pm
I think that I prefer the luktom visual order editor. I like how you can adjust SL & TP just by moving the lines on the charts. Much easier in my opinion.

Thanks again Robert
  • #7,247
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:59pm Mar 26, 2012 2:59pm
Quoting Alorente
So Dean, how do you personally handle the typical trade where a spike stops you out and the trade still looks great. Do you reenter or let it go?
well Al, i think it's time for me to pay vist to your beautiful house and discuss this over a fine bottle of Spanish vino.. of course if you have me.

kidding aside..
it all depends on ones trading plan. but in less words, you simply deal with it... you accept a predetermined loss and you move on. there will be another bus around the corner the next time, the best thing about forex is that its full of opportunities and its 24/5.. all you atta do is to take your share and not to gun for the whole enchilada as how we put it sunny cal.

the success lies within losses.. you ask any great trader will tell you the same (not suggesting that i am great)

to get really technical with this and laying out details it will need a whole new system and my intention was not that when i made my first post.
  • #7,248
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:59pm Mar 26, 2012 2:59pm
Is this stinkin Euro just going to up FOREVER?????
  • #7,249
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:02pm Mar 26, 2012 3:02pm
Here is another technically solid way to determine if the trade should be scrapped. A break of the up trendline of the USIndex would certainly spell bad news for USD. This uptrend goes way back to last August. As you can see, price is getting close, but still not up to the line. The RSI and MACD still look ok. If USIndex breaks this line, that could be the end of the Bull for USD and the return of the Euro to 1.40. Since the trend is still intact, I may give it till tomorrow. to put up or shut up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USIndex.jpg Size: 172 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,250
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:02pm Mar 26, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting Surfnomad
I think that I prefer the luktom visual order editor. I like how you can adjust SL & TP just by moving the lines on the charts. Much easier in my opinion.

Thanks again Robert
Robert,

No problem. That is what we are all here for. It was Olarion that suggested it to me.

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #7,251
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:17pm Mar 26, 2012 3:17pm
Quoting Tuauxp
You must also be in recovery Al ? You went short around 1.3196
Are you going through with the EU and GU ?
In my last trade in, I went short at 1.3207, but I was able to trade in and out 4 times and I gained a little over 100 pips each in EU and GU, so taking that into account, I am still about 45 pips away from entering recovery on both of these suckers.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,252
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:23pm Mar 26, 2012 3:23pm
Quoting Alorente
In my last trade in, I went short at 1.3207, but I was able to trade in and out 4 times and I gained a little over 100 pips each in EU and GU, so taking that into account, I am still about 45 pips away from entering recovery on both of these suckers.
In the case of these 2, recovery will probably not be an option for me. If USIndex breaks the uptrend line, Iīm out for good.

I still donīt believe it for a second though. My weekly study of EU which I am attaching, still shows price under the H&S neckline and RSI never had a divergence at 1.26 and the weekly almost always does before the final low. I still expect EU to not only test 1.26 but break it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd w.jpg Size: 122 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,253
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:24pm Mar 26, 2012 3:24pm
Quoting Alorente
In my last trade in, I went short at 1.3207, but I was able to trade in and out 4 times and I gained a little over 100 pips each in EU and GU, so taking that into account, I am still about 45 pips away from entering recovery on both of these suckers.
Alfredo,

Does that mean that those who did not take those 4 auxillary trades should be managing their trades differently than you?

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #7,254
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:26pm Mar 26, 2012 3:26pm
  •  Mr C
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts
Should retrace 20 pips or so before heading up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 15m eurusd.gif Size: 37 KB
Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .
  • #7,255
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:28pm Mar 26, 2012 3:28pm
Quoting faxxion
Alfredo,

Does that mean that those who did not take those 4 auxillary trades should be managing their trades differently than you?

William
I would. If I didnīt have those 100+ pips in the bank from this trade, I would have faced the Recovery decision 55 pips ago. I probably would have entered recovery then, because the trade was and still is technically viable, but I would still close the trade and the Recovery trade if it technically falls apart.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,256
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:30pm Mar 26, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting Alorente
In my last trade in, I went short at 1.3207, but I was able to trade in and out 4 times and I gained a little over 100 pips each in EU and GU, so taking that into account, I am still about 45 pips away from entering recovery on both of these suckers.
Hi fellow traders

We must remember that this system is trading extreme points and as such there will be times when the extreme means a trend is starting. Al's recovery method is perfect to capture this change as it aims for BE as soon as possible. Once this is reached you can start over again as it won't be long before trending shifts again to ranging where the pips are made with this system. As Al stated earlier in the thread you must not over extend yourself. MM is crucial. It may be best to stick to about two or three currency pairs with a small account.

It seems like Eurusd will go to about 1.3427 before turning down again as per the murrey maths S/R lines which is ideal for turning points.

All the very best to all.
Rob
With God its impossible to lose
  • #7,257
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:35pm Mar 26, 2012 3:35pm
Quoting Alorente
I would. If I didnīt have those 100+ pips in the bank from this trade, I would have faced the Recovery decision 55 pips ago. I probably would have entered recovery then, because the trade was and still is technically viable, but I would still close the trade and the Recovery trade if it technically falls apart.
Also, letīs put things in perspective here. I have been trading both of these in H4 since the beginning on Thursday. H4 TMA is still ranging. Price is beyond the H4 upper band. The slope indi is dropping. Both EU and GU are at resistance. These are dream shorts right now according to the Extreme TMA system which has been so good to us in the past. In spite of Blabbermouth Bernanke and his 0% interest rates forever, Alice in Wonderland story he wants us to believe.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,258
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:36pm Mar 26, 2012 3:36pm
Quoting P.Dean
well Al, i think it's time for me to pay vist to your beautiful house and discuss this over a fine bottle of Spanish vino.. of course if you have me.

kidding aside..
it all depends on ones trading plan. but in less words, you simply deal with it... you accept a predetermined loss and you move on. there will be another bus around the corner the next time, the best thing about forex is that its full of opportunities and its 24/5.. all you atta do is to take your share and not to gun for the whole enchilada as how we put it sunny cal.

the success...
I'm around -37 at the moment on my current EU trade. I've got a ton of margin for recovery if needed. Also plenty for other trades on other pairs. This is a business. For new traders, sure use a SL, but if you have experience and are in control, you know what to do and when you should do it. Losses are indeed part of the game. I certainly don't bring my entire business to a halt if one little trade goes bad though. In my years of trading I usually allow 200 pips of breath for any trade I enter, thus my margin investment is based off that. With that said though, I can't remember the last time I had a 200 pnt loss, most times its for 50 or so pips, after I seen the market work it self out and I feel confident its time to cut.

point is, if you don't ever over leverage yourself, you have options for recovery or a dump of the trade on your terms. I for one have no emotion anymore on trades to the point where is boring. This is how it should be.

I think this is all Al was trying to say.
USD Est Non Mortuus
  • #7,259
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:41pm Mar 26, 2012 3:41pm
Quoting Alorente
Also, letīs put things in perspective here. I have been trading both of these in H4 since the beginning on Thursday. H4 TMA is still ranging. Price is beyond the H4 upper band. The slope indi is dropping. Both EU and GU are at resistance. These are dream shorts right now according to the Extreme TMA system which has been so good to us in the past. In spite of Blabbermouth Bernanke and his 0% interest rates forever, Alice in Wonderland story he wants us to believe.
As a matter of fact, if I wasnīt a disciplined son of a bitch, made that way by years of hell for not being so, I would love to jump all over this trade on the short side right now, but my maximum percentage per position is already used up.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,260
  • Mar 26, 2012 3:44pm Mar 26, 2012 3:44pm
Quoting LuckyLurker
I'm around -37 at the moment on my current EU trade. I've got a ton of margin for recovery if needed. Also plenty for other trades on other pairs. This is a business. For new traders, sure use a SL, but if you have experience and are in control, you know what to do and when you should do it. Losses are indeed part of the game. I certainly don't bring my entire business to a halt if one little trade goes bad though. In my years of trading I usually allow 200 pips of breath for any trade I enter, thus my margin investment is based off that. With that...
I for one have no emotion anymore on trades to the point where is boring.

I couldnīt have said it any better. This is a business. If you are feeling stress or tension right now, you are doing something wrong.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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