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Extreme TMA System

  • #7,221
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:05pm Mar 26, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting P.Dean
.. but the overall success of your style massively depends on recovery unless you go on a 100% hit ratio all the time, so you had no choice but to introduce it and i see that...
Dean
Hello Dean,

I appreciate your comments and I am not picking a fight here. But let's be fair. Alfredo's system neither promised, nor needs to be viable, a "100% hit ratio". And Recovery has been taught from the beginning. It was not something "introduced" to artificially inflate the numbers.

Let's all just come together and find a solution that is more practical for the masses.

Sincerely,

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #7,222
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:06pm Mar 26, 2012 1:06pm
Quoting faxxion
Hello Alfredo,

I think what Dean is referring to is the number of posts today that have used the word 'hope', or some variation of it. I have noticed that a lot since a few of the trades have gone into larger than normal draw down. Your trades are only down about 50 pips and look at how many people are worried. This tells me they are probably trading too large for Recovery. They could have to go multiple levels with multiple entries trending against them before they can exit. Even if it does not happen this time, it will eventually. And trying...
Hi William, The third level is -200 pips. The first level is the original trade. I have been to -200 only once. All other recoveries where solved at -100+.

As far as a solid MM strategy, there is only using a stop loss that I know off. Ideally at previous swing high. I donīt know what you mean by "solid". I used it for years and one day decided to add up all the losses from being stopped out and panicked. Thatīs when I started using Recovery. Since then, I have not lost $1 to a SL. I would say thatīs pretty solid. I donīt think you really understand it. You seem to be skeptical of it for some reason. It is a great alternative that works as long as you apply it with discipline. The way I see it, we donīt use a stop loss for all other actions we take and decisions we make as human beings. We take the risk and if we screw up, it serves as a lesson for the future. I can understand insurance (collision, life, etc) and I equate that to my emergency stop loss but we donīt walk around the city with a safety net under our ...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,223
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:14pm Mar 26, 2012 1:14pm
wiliam :

message to you ~

SCOTT
  • #7,224
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:23pm Mar 26, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting faxxion
Hello Dean,

I appreciate your comments and I am not picking a fight here. But let's be fair. Alfredo's system neither promised, nor needs to be viable, a "100% hit ratio". And Recovery has been taught from the beginning. It was not something "introduced" to artificially inflate the numbers.

Let's all just come together and find a solution that is more practical for the masses.

Sincerely,

William
Dear faxxion.. i think you missed my point.. i did not say Al's system produces or promises or must hit 100% to be a success.. its crazy to demand such expectations.. i actually said the opposite lol.. no system does that, such thing don't exist.. so because of that and together with no use of sl he has to have some sort of a recovery system.. which may well work for him IF he got a big account and mass of experience, but not for most in here. you yourself for one is struggling as you mentioned.
.and we all can care or less about the numbers, what i am talking about is the main philosophy of a trading system that its built around.
.. and I go on line and say point blank that recovery will not work in the long run, it will eventually kill.. I seen it happen to big time traders with major accounts and we see it time to time on TV happening to major guns, at some point it will get you.. sooner if your a retail trader.

what you suggested in your previous post (MM) is what maybe the way to go to start.

thanks for you contribution to this thread brother.

regards,
Dean
  • #7,225
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:25pm Mar 26, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting rivtrader
Placed a sell order on EurUsd at 1.3314.
You too huh? I'm just waiting now. I think she'll be back before too long.
  • #7,226
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:28pm Mar 26, 2012 1:28pm
Quoting Alorente
Hi William, The third level is -200 pips. The first level is the original trade. I have been to -200 only once. All other recoveries where solved at -100+.

As far as a solid MM strategy, there is only using a stop loss that I know off. Ideally at previous swing high. I donīt know what you mean by "solid". I used it for years and one day decided to add up all the losses from being stopped out and panicked. Thatīs when I started using Recovery. Since then, I have not lost $1 to a SL. I would say thatīs pretty solid. I donīt think you really understand...
Hello Alfredo,

I do understand it. 200 pips is where level 3 starts. It goes as deep as 300 pips, as I said, when level 4 would be started. So, technically, you could go to -299 pips and be in level 3

I was not suggesting that Recovery is not "solid". I was suggesting an alternative.

As far as your other comments, I really hate to disagree with you, but I do. We do use a stop loss in life. With every decision we make, we have a pain threshold where we reverse our course if it becomes obvious that our plans have not work our as we envisioned.

Your Friend,

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #7,227
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:31pm Mar 26, 2012 1:31pm
Quoting tubguy
You too huh? I'm just waiting now. I think she'll be back before too long.
Yes, this time of day does not help. Neither does the consolidation that usually comes in after most rallies. If it keeps going higher I might have to trail my entry higher if I get a better pa pattern for shorting.
  • #7,228
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:40pm Mar 26, 2012 1:40pm
Quoting rivtrader
Yes, this time of day does not help. Neither does the consolidation that usually comes in after most rallies. If it keeps going higher I might have to trail my entry higher if I get a better pa pattern for shorting.
Yep! I'm looking at 1.3350. any higher and I may have to sacrifice the troops & live to fight tomorrow. what sucks is....I was long until it got there. I flipped looking for a pullback that never came. Oh well. Just gonna wait and see what happens.

Good Trading
Mike
  • #7,229
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:48pm Mar 26, 2012 1:48pm
Quoting faxxion
Hello Alfredo,

I do understand it. 200 pips is where level 3 starts. It goes as deep as 300 pips, as I said, when level 4 would be started. So, technically, you could go to -299 pips and be in level 3

I was not suggesting that Recovery is not "solid". I was suggesting an alternative.

As far as your other comments, I really hate to disagree with you, but I do. We do use a stop loss in life. With every decision we make, we have a pain threshold where we reverse our course if it becomes obvious that our plans have not work our as we envisioned....
I agree with you and in a way thatīs my point. I have taken losses voluntarily when I realized the trade was no longer valid. I only enter Recovery with trades that I believe continue to be valid.

When I used stop losses I never learned how to deal with being stopped out in what is still a technically valid trade. The reason is that, after I am stopped out I analyze it again, I still think it is a great trade and I enter again, only to be stopped out again. Iīve had that happen to me up to 5 times in a space of the same 40 pips, back and forth, back and forth.... Now thatīs -200 pips and the trade is still about the same price and still looks just as valid as the first time. Psychologically this kills you, because you know that if you had been in the trade without the stop loss, you would still be waiting for it to move but would not have lost anything yet. For a while, I made up a rule that said, if youīre stopped out, you are not allowed to reenter that trade anymore. I did that many times, just to see it take off in my direction after I was stopped out, knowing I could have made 100 or 200 pips on the trade. Thatīs why the only logical way to trade is to take your loss when the trade deserves it and not arbitrarily at -20 pips or -30 pips. As you said, in life when we realize we are wrong we reverse course. I equate that to taking a loss. Recovery I equate to "If at first you donīt succeed you try again" because you know the enterprise is still viable.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,230
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:58pm Mar 26, 2012 1:58pm
Quoting Alorente
I just added to my short also.
You must also be in recovery Al ? You went short around 1.3196
Are you going through with the EU and GU ?
  • #7,231
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:58pm Mar 26, 2012 1:58pm
Quoting tubguy
Yep! I'm looking at 1.3350. any higher and I may have to sacrifice the troops & live to fight tomorrow. what sucks is....I was long until it got there. I flipped looking for a pullback that never came. Oh well. Just gonna wait and see what happens.

Good Trading
Mike
I'm not short yet, I have a pending order for when it comes down. But if you are already short then I guess you will have to watch R3 carefully. R3 is at around 1.3353 but it can go above it some pips before coming down. If it does come down from there. If it takes you out, you can always do a reentry when the pa gets bearish.
  • #7,232
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:02pm Mar 26, 2012 2:02pm
Mismanaged Trade!
Just want to share my terribly mismanaged trade so others will learn from my mistake.
1. Entered short @ 1.3175, at the time it was outside upper band and at resistance.
2. It went 100 pips against me(actually 40 pips in my favor but didn’t hit my TP) I didn’t have an order in to enter recovery trade it happened when sleeping. Lesson Learned: enter recovery order when trade entered.
3. After missing recovery trade I entered a sell near RN 1.3285. It then came up to within 1 or 2 pips but did not take my order. Lesson Learned: Enter recovery trade 100 pips from 1st trade. ( my 1.3285 order was 110 pips from entry.)
4. At this time if properly managed I’d be out at BE or a few positive pips.
5. Now I’m pissed so I enter a short at today's PP thinking that’s where it will reverse but…… now I’m losing even more. I'm in a trade that I'm HOPING it comes back to break even.
The lesson here is if your going to use recovery USE IT PROPERLY!!

I'm still a little worried that it could take a big bite out of my account if a strong trend develops and doesn’t look back.

As Al says you must enter a trade by the rules first and be confident it will go in your favor before entering. I’m still going with small positions with the intention of using recovery. Hope this helps.

Thanks again Al and everyone for your time and efforts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 30 KB
Barry
  • #7,233
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:03pm Mar 26, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting Alorente
I agree with you and in a way thatīs my point. I have taken losses voluntarily when I realized the trade was no longer valid. I only enter Recovery with trades that I believe continue to be valid.

When I used stop losses I never learned how to deal with being stopped out in what is still a technically valid trade. The reason is that, after I am stopped out I analyze it again, I still think it is a great trade and I enter again, only to be stopped out again. Iīve had that happen to me up to 5 times in a space of the same 40 pips, back and forth,...
Hello Alfredo,

Thank you for your comments. I think we are coming at the same problem from 2 different directions.

You said, "I only enter Recovery with trades that I believe continue to be valid." I guess a rhetorical question that I would ask myself before entering a trade would be, "How many pips would this need to move in the opposite direction before I consider it to no longer be valid?" Once you have made that decision, that is where your stop loss belongs. Not at an arbitrary 20-30 pips, but at a technical level where the trade is obviously no longer valid.

That is what I am suggesting for discussion here. That would be a "solid" money management alternative.

I hope this promotes healthy discussion.

Sincerely,

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #7,234
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:13pm Mar 26, 2012 2:13pm
I existed short GU and EU at the end of last Friday. For me never hold position over the weekend regardless how sound the technical is. Any Act of God over the weekend beyond our control.
Follow me to the Promised Land
  • #7,235
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:16pm Mar 26, 2012 2:16pm
  •  Mr C
  • Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Knowledge is "potential" power | 439 Posts
Short term trend line broke up!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3 15m eurusd.gif Size: 38 KB
Of all the things I've lost I miss my mind the most .
  • #7,236
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:19pm Mar 26, 2012 2:19pm
Hello Everyone.. First sorry for my english but I will try to be comprehensible ... I am new to this forum and I liked the engineering of the system which works on extremes so I read as much as I could from this forum and I thanks Al for all his work and contribution .. the idea behind extremes is very interesting and for me it is a complementary technique to other systems maybe the piece of puzzle missing to others system like THV or symphony, etc .. yes I did my tour ... I have been working on my Expert System since 2 years now and I hope with TMA System I could finalise it very soon .... so thanks again to Al and to all who are sharing their knowledge so generously...
  • #7,237
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:21pm Mar 26, 2012 2:21pm
Quoting faxxion
Hello Alfredo,

Thank you for your comments. I think we are coming at the same problem from 2 different directions.

You said, "I only enter Recovery with trades that I believe continue to be valid." I guess a rhetorical question that I would ask myself before entering a trade would be, "How many pips would this need to move in the opposite direction before I consider it to no longer be valid?" Once you have made that decision, that is where your stop loss belongs. Not at an arbitrary 20-30 pips, but at a technical level where the trade...
In Forex you can get a 50 pip or larger 10 or 20 second spike that stops you out and have a trade that is still technically valid. With stocks, I agree with you because the spikes are not very common.

Anyway, Iīll use the trade Iīm in as an example. Price is now attempting to break the upper channel wall of EurUsd. I will probably give it three candles. After a close of three candles beyond the wall, I will probably take a loss. It can sneak its nose beyond the wall and come back in, but a 3 candle close will be enough for me to throw in the towel.

Still, the way EU is breaking the wall, is more indicative of a last gasp with little energy, than a healthy pullback and a strong breakout with a long candle would be, So it is still probable in my view, that EU and GU can drop back down.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #7,238
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:23pm Mar 26, 2012 2:23pm
Quoting Alorente
.. Thatīs why the only logical way to trade is to take your loss when the trade deserves it and not arbitrarily at -20 pips or -30 pips. As you said, in life when we realize we are wrong we reverse course. I equate that to taking a loss. Recovery I equate to "If at first you donīt succeed you try again" because you know the enterprise is still viable.

you just opened a can of worms Al.. bcz this little statement by itself needs a whole new system of when where and how would one know when and if to cut the loss and what the hell the rules are and and and..
  • #7,239
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:31pm Mar 26, 2012 2:31pm
Quoting Alorente
In Forex you can get a 50 pip or larger 10 or 20 second spike that stops you out and have a trade that is still technically valid. With stocks, I agree with you because the spikes are not very common.

Anyway, Iīll use the trade Iīm in as an example. Price is now attempting to break the upper channel wall of EurUsd. I will probably give it three candles. After a close of three candles beyond the wall, I will probably take a loss. It can sneak its nose beyond the wall and come back in, but a 3 candle close will be enough for me to throw in the...
Hello Alfredo,

Thank you for the explanation. I look forward to observing and learning from how you make your decisions on these current trades.

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #7,240
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:32pm Mar 26, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting Alorente
In Forex you can get a 50 pip or larger 10 or 20 second spike that stops you out and have a trade that is still technically valid. With stocks, I agree with you because the spikes are not very common.

Anyway, Iīll use the trade Iīm in as an example. Price is now attempting to break the upper channel wall of EurUsd. I will probably give it three candles. After a close of three candles beyond the wall, I will probably take a loss. It can sneak its nose beyond the wall and come back in, but a 3 candle close will be enough for...
Hello AL I appreciate all that you share with us and if you could please clarify what you meant in the section I highlighted blue, I see the trendline "wall" you are referring to on my daily chart, are you talking about 3 daily candle close beyond that and if not what timeframe candles are you talking about closing beyond the "wall".

Thanks Robert
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