Fail Better

Use the forextester or other backtesting means to go over and over and over how trades fail, what the PA is prior to them failing, etc.

Soon enough, you'll simply "know" when price doesn't look right, when it looks like it's going to fail.

I also think it depends on your level. A 1hr/4hr level I may close early if price looks to be pushing through...daily I'll negate strong 1hr closes and allow the level room to breath.

Sam thanks for the advice ......time for me to get cracking on Forextester! Did you take either of the RR's on EU+Cable yesterday? I still believe, although not A+, they were playable but the real skill comes in when they are not going your way and you cut them for small losses......not quite there yet. But definitely going to get FX tester and start working with it.

Sam just a follow up - you say you'll 'know' when price does not quite 'look right' - I DID have a feeling that price was not quite acting 'right' but I did not act on this so maybe I am slowly getting there but just have to be a bit sharper as 'hope' is no use in trading.

Sure. It's difficult to differentiate between looking for excuses to get out of a trade that's not immediately going to your way (emotional pain) and knowing that you should get out of a trade that's not going your way (experience/screen time).

I'm still working on this myself. I made a call on my NU trade posted earlier this week and cut it short, knowing that price did not look right. In the end, price smashed downward as originally planned. Did I make the right call? According to my experience and screen time, yes. Does it hurt to have price do a FU and move according to my original plan after I've made a non-emotional discretionary call to close early? Sure.

PM the EU charts from earlier this week...or post here.

Tom talks about no-interaction vs interaction. Here is a perfect example of how not letting your S/L and T/P do the trading, and not sticking with your plan, will screw up good trades.

1st trade is E/J, which turned out to be a way better trade than second trade (with only a 5pip drawdown), but was ruined by interacting with it.

Thanks. The program's called Jing. It's a free Camtasia with less features. Still a great product, though.

Kalbar - I am far from the best person to take advice from, so you should probably ignore everything that follows.

My previous posts on here show that I had a really bad run of form last month. I posted 6 losses in a row, that extended to 10 in a row, following which I took a few weeks off to reassess.

I am now being far more picky in my trades. I took 2 this week, and 1 last week. All have been winners so far. Obviously I won't be able to keep that run of form up, and I may hit another string of losers next week but it bodes well so far. Before I was taking around 5 trades a week - still not a huge amount, but when you work full time like I do I realise that I am just not going to spot all of the best setups and should probably be satisfied with just one or two. It's tempting to take more on the basis that you can't make money by not trading, but more importantly you can't lose money by not trading either. If I can make 1R each week by taking and winning 1 A grade setup, or by taking 3, and winning 2 of them, then I will be doing well.

I had the day off yesterday and so was able to watch the markets much more closely than usual. I am assuming you shorted EUR/USD at around 1.3170-80 and shorted cable at around 1.5820.

I decided not to take the trade on the Euro for two reasons. First the most recent touches (as support) were a little way away from the previous level which had acted as resistance at 1.3187 and was too broad a zone for my liking. Secondly (and more importantly to me) the level had only had two recent touches as support - I like to look for 3 if there is no confluence or bias present, which I don't think there was in this case.

I decided against the cable trade because it never got far enough away from the level for my liking to constitute a proper break before the retest. There were 5 full bars below the level, but the high of each bar was never more than 10 pips away from the level. I don't recall Tom ever mentioning this specifically so it may be nonsense, but it fits with his idea of needing time and space between the break and the retest.

SamMattAlmar,

Thanks for all those replies guys, much appreciated - nice to stir up a bit of a debate! You ALL make valid points and thanks for all the thoughts and comments I really appreciate it. Have been checking back a few months on RR setups and maybe those 2 RRs were NOT the best and to be honest may have been a result of my (still to be curbed!) URGE to trade! As Matt says if you are not in the market then you cant lose. Patience the name of the game but as a male from Scotland thats difficult as we are renowned for impatience!!! A work in progress! Thanks for all the constructive comments guys - great to interact with you all and learn from each other.

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...SD23032012.jpg

Nice fib confluence as well.

You could probably also make a case for a reverse HS pattern.

If that turns out to be a neckline then a RR off of 3290 long is the plan.

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...PY23032012.jpg

UJ very interesting this week with Tom talking about this top pattern.

Around that 83.17's area was ideal except for that recent false break lower (circled) throwing a spanner in the otherwise perfect picture.

Happily turns out that everybody ignored it.

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...SD23032012.jpg

...talking of perfect.... anyone trade this kiwi?

Just to add to what Kalbar was asking about "feeling" somethings not right.

We've all been there.
Couple of technical ideas to help you, one is you don't want to see price finding support (resistance) off of your RR level, that's not a great sign, you want to see a reaction away from it.

Second one is like the sterling short off 5817's, you don't want to see it creating a spider like pattern like that. You don't want to see hourly candles closing on the wrong side of your trade.

SFP's get technically nullified as well with a close lower on the next candle.

Of course sometimes we get it wrong and price does what it wants but at least you pulled out of a trade for a technical reason rather than some intangible reason that you can't define and therefore can't easily improve upon.

Make notes and screen shots so you can remind yourself about how these failed trades came about and look for the link.

Hi

I just signed up for Sundays webinar - really looking forward to it :-)

Is there a point were we can ask questions?

Thanks


Dru

Did anyone else show a gap last Sunday on Aussie/Dollar?

nvm, looks like a bad feed on my part.

Just to come back to this point briefly

Have stumbled across Trade Interceptor which is an awesomely useful tool for simulator trading (practice) and you can do this across all instruments (indices and FX) with windows moving in parallel multi-timeframe... and its 100% FREE

Also (imho) one of the nicest charting pieces of software to use. Lots' of supporting videos also here into the detail of winding back the clock and trading forwards.

Oh, and they also have what I think is the best mobile charting package out there. Certain is the bees knees on Android - allows you to zoom in/out and saves what you draw on there.

Did I mention this is all FREE?

Please anyone who is attending can contact me pls.

I will be attending. Whats up?

Im definetly out of the webminar

Good luck everyone attending it seems like a very great webminar.

I have bought the webminar but I havent received the password

Please could anyone tell TOM pls.

THANK YOU

D1 30 yr us t bond futures ...chart says it all.....ie "Short Story"

Can you drop me an email and I will sort it out!

http://i1084.photobucket.com/albums/...AD25032012.jpg

I know this pair can be tricky but SFP's like this market.

I've been looking at the 4hr chart of this pair over the last 5mths for SFP's and have 16 winners out of 22 trades.

Quidsey, are you using the D1 for bias or are you entering off the D1 sfp bar?