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  • #24,981
  • Mar 25, 2012 11:24am Mar 25, 2012 11:24am
Hi there,

I read from time to time this thread..

Here is my view on EURUSD for next week: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post5509601
fokyou forexfactory
  • #24,982
  • Mar 25, 2012 11:31am Mar 25, 2012 11:31am
Quoting DNTme
Hi there,

I read from time to time this thread..

Here is my view on EURUSD for next week: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post5509601

.......Nice view DNTme, thanyou very much for your analisis, and what do you think of our womens?.........
The Chonchy
  • #24,983
  • Mar 25, 2012 11:44am Mar 25, 2012 11:44am
Chonchy.........I'll say it again Chonchy; you are doing a great job keeping this thread going and it is definitely one of the better reads around not to mention the always excellent female contributions..........you have a very nice family too. That is plainly obvious.

Good luck with the bike business, and the European markets are way better trading than the dull and boring NA sessions especially if one can get a shot at some nice equity indexes to trade like Spain's ESP35 and Italy's ITA40 - 45Condor knows about those.

On that note Condor I read your last big piece about Greece and here is my call for what it is worth (probably not much) ......I think the swoop down to rescue Spainish and Italian bonds by the ECB at the end of last week (US 10 year yields also pushed down at a major inflection point from 2.4%) pretty much puts a floor under equities for the time being and at least sends a pretty clear message that IF things start to look a bit tooo scary the central banks are circling.

There is a literal sea of central bank liquidity under the markets and I think it is all about the bond markets..........in other words the central banks must be acutely aware of the DAMAGE that can be inflicted upon the global economies and the markets' confidence if yields were allowed to run up and sovereign debt financing became a real issue especially for rollovers.

I am taking my cues from the bond markets and yields and given the debacle of the Greek bond fiasco that turned rules upside down I am guessing that private money that matches up with 10 year Spanish bonds (insurance cos) is probably somewhat skittish about buying it and I bet that applies to Spanish insurance companies also ......that leaves the ECB........
  • #24,984
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:00pm Mar 25, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting chonchy
.......Nice view DNTme, thanyou very much for your analisis, and what do you think of our womens?.........

i like very much the atmosphere from this thread..especially womens
fokyou forexfactory
  • #24,985
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:08pm Mar 25, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting roro53
I think the swoop down to rescue Spainish and Italian bonds by the ECB at the end of last week (US 10 year yields also pushed down at a major inflection point from 2.4%) pretty much puts a floor under equities for the time being and at least sends a pretty clear message that IF things start to look a bit tooo scary the central banks are circling.

There is a literal sea of central bank liquidity under the markets and I think it is all about the bond markets..........in other words the central banks must be acutely aware of the DAMAGE that can...
I hold the exact same feeling... but the propping up by central banks, and free-riding by the banks on the back of this free bonus, is hitting us on the streets.

...a Trillion Euros printed so far, and not a cent to be seen on the streets of Europe.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #24,986
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:12pm Mar 25, 2012 12:12pm
Thanks for all the charts everyone and Chonchy, you have a lovely granddaughter there, and a lovely family.

Anyway, here is a bit of my view. For Eur/Usd I am seeing a rise to previous resistance and when this happens I always look to indicators and candles for divergence clues, as well as the overall trend.

So this chart says to me, downtrend on H4 timescale and also bearish divergence, yet to play out. This is H4 so it's fairly short term.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd120325h4.gif Size: 25 KB


The weekly looks muddled to me, which fundamentally it is. I suppose a serious rejection of 1.35 in the last two weeks of February says a lot.
Gone to a better place
  • #24,987
  • Mar 25, 2012 12:39pm Mar 25, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting roro53
......that leaves the ECB........
I'm afraid that the only role the ECB will play is that of re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

This crisis in Europe is primarily being viewed as a financial crisis. Perhaps there is also another layer to it that is best viewed from somewhat of a sociological or anthropological perspective.

I think that one of the major flaws of the EU has always been that neither in its structure nor in the public eye has it ever been thought of as a singular entity(country?) but has remained to be perceived as a collection of economically and culturally seperate entities. History and well intrenched diverse cultural differences perhaps make it imposible to every think of EU as a cohesive whole. Hence, come hard times, there is neither the required structure in place nor the sense of pride in country (EU) and so a reversion to the old European model of tribalism (all be it in modern clothing) takes place, as we are currently witnessing. And yes, just like days of old, Royalty wins and the peasants suffer. When will we ever learn? Never ..........

However, I'm a trader and am seeing the old adage that "there's money to be made when there's blood in the streets" playing out rather nicely. All the talking heads, be dam'ed, good ole support/resistance still rules. Some day I'll own all the (useless?) money in the world HHAAAAHHAAAHHAHA!
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #24,988
  • Edited 2:14pm Mar 25, 2012 12:48pm | Edited 2:14pm
Thx for your thoughts re the importance of 1:35 R for Euro Smikester......

Condor........thought I might be preaching to the converted with the bond call, and i feel for the street minions who will never see a shilling from the trillion but as Mervyn King put it so succinctly about the necessity to sacrifice the savers and pensioners.......

The takeaway; if the SHTF in the debt markets it is all over and the central banks know it so now that the sovereign bond markets have been compromised the lenders of last resort are the central banks.......forever, and forever is as far as the eye can see imho.

There ain't no way out without inflating so who knows but maybe this dawning of a new reality is about to turn prices for everything up.......I don't know that for certain but with about ZIRP 4 trillion in liquidity on CB balance sheets looking for a place to chase yield and the virtual assurance that central banks will be at the firing squad wall before the printing stops then I am approaching sell offs with a degree of caution unless the S&P breaks under 1350.

I feel sorry for the average person who has not an iota of a clue about what is happening but as for the trading I really must apply the rule and try to be somewhat of a Joubert about it all in the sense of not caring if prices rise or fall as long as I am trading the right side.

The other night I read a story about how Roosevelt used the image of the Marines who raised the flag at Iwo Jima as a brilliant PR campaign integral to the 7th and most successful bond drive of the Second War.........I'll copy it later.....I have to run right now, but it is quite poignant and telling.

BTW..............do you think you might want to petition the European Parliament to rescind the silly Daylight Savings Time arrangement as it applies to you Europeans........the past 2 weeks have been much easier on us in NA trading European markets from Eastern Time.....back to the earlier hours as of tonight.

FXHermit.........so far the banks have been pretty successful at pumping out the bilge water and if what Jamie Diamon did by front running the last FOMC is an indicator that may play all right for a while as it has essentially since Mar 2009.

As for social change.......???........don't think that is happening soon. The elite is too entrenched, too smart and have the dna of survivors on their side not to mention the media and printing presses while the consumer class is much too dumbed down and too enamored of false value to ever lead an uprising to overthrow the so called 1% forget about just getting to the basis of forming an organizational structure designed to have political effect.

You yourself must know the look you get if you raise questions about what people like Mervyn King or Mario Monti are thinking/risking unless you raise such questions in restricted circles like this thread..........miost people look at me like I am from Mars if I bring up what I think are important social/political/ec issues and I seriously doubt I am alone with that experience.

I trade on the premise that the markets are corrupt and rigged.
  • #24,989
  • Edited 4:16pm Mar 25, 2012 1:20pm | Edited 4:16pm
........thanks everybody, but is not only me who is doing a good job in keeping this thread going while cesar build his empire of clothing, but I also like to mention smikester, mfostel1, dswk, BRW, Turtle, fxhermit, fidza, 45condor, MPP and all that come here to offer their view, and that is what is all about you know, post our view of the markets, right or wrong, we are all grown ups here like 45condor said to analise the market and act acordingly to our own views but at least for me it always help to know what all of you are thinking all the time, specialy those sick minds that are always thinking about beutifull women, and why god made so many beutifull women otherwise......I love beutifull women and if that is a sing, then I'm a siner..........in a nice manner, I have being marrie to the same woman for 28 years and never lye to her with another woman, I just like to look at other women, that is all, and this is the true, beleive me.....if the_dove alliance will be around, he will be a witnes to that.........
The Chonchy
  • #24,990
  • Edited 2:11pm Mar 25, 2012 1:43pm | Edited 2:11pm
Quoting smikester
Thanks for all the charts everyone and Chonchy, you have a lovely granddaughter there, and a lovely family.

Anyway, here is a bit of my view. For Eur/Usd I am seeing a rise to previous resistance and when this happens I always look to indicators and candles for divergence clues, as well as the overall trend.

So this chart says to me, downtrend on H4 timescale and also bearish divergence, yet to play out. This is H4 so it's fairly short term.


Attachment



The weekly looks muddled to me, which fundamentally it is. I suppose a...
......Thanks Smikester, this is the whole team.......my son in law in the center down, my two doughters and my wife, another doughter is not there because she was at ultra parting..........Yeilin let me see if I find a pic.........

Attached Image



this is yeilin with her mother.......

http://a8.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphot..._3487794_n.jpg
The Chonchy
  • #24,991
  • Mar 25, 2012 2:10pm Mar 25, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting roro53
I feel sorry for the average person who has not an iota of a clue about what is happening but as for the trading I really must apply the rule and try to be somewhat of a Joubert about it all in the sense of not caring if prices rise or fall as long as I am trading the right side.
There you go. You've summed it up nicely about the trading part, as far as the average person is concerned, yes, I feel sorry for them too. All one can hope is that the average prson will rise to the challenge and find themselves becoming un-average, adversity does often bring out the inovative and the spiritual, not necessarily a bad mix, IMHO. OOPS! There I go again, pontificating from a sociological point of view.

To put it in terms of Donald Beck and his Spiral Dynamics model, what we are seeing in Europe and the USA in particular is a building of a "Gamma trap". This is often a mechanism that comes into play when the human condition is attempting to either voluntarily or unvoluntarily make a "Meme" change. Gamma traps are very disruptive in nature and a change in meme is either an elevation or deterioration of values, sometimes some of both before things settle out. So, I'd be looking for more stormy weather ahead with perhaps eventualy the calm of the eye ........and then?

May you live in interesting times - an Oriental curse, if I remember correctly comes to mind and it certainly is.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #24,992
  • Mar 25, 2012 2:13pm Mar 25, 2012 2:13pm
Beautiful family Chonchy. You are wealthy in many ways.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #24,993
  • Mar 25, 2012 2:16pm Mar 25, 2012 2:16pm
Quoting fxhermit
There you go. You've summed it up nicely about the trading part, as far as the average person is concerned, yes, I feel sorry for them too. All one can hope is that the average prson will rise to the challenge and find themselves becoming un-average, adversity does often bring out the inovative and the spiritual, not necessarily a bad mix, IMHO. OOPS! There I go again, pontificating from a sociological point of view.

To put it in terms of Donald Beck and his Spiral Dynamics model, what we are seeing in Europe and the USA in particular is a building...
........ wow deep......
The Chonchy
  • #24,994
  • Mar 25, 2012 2:18pm Mar 25, 2012 2:18pm
Quoting fxhermit
Beautiful family Chonchy. You are wealthy in many ways.
.......Thanks fxhermit, in deed I'm, all I need is an island and a yacth, and a helicopter, oh an a sub to speargunfish, deep you know........
The Chonchy
  • #24,995
  • Mar 25, 2012 2:19pm Mar 25, 2012 2:19pm
......Oh and one of those flying thingys......

........who is not happy with friends like you, fxhermit........
The Chonchy
  • #24,996
  • Mar 25, 2012 2:19pm Mar 25, 2012 2:19pm
FXhermit..........you probably call your self a hermit for a reason?

I put this on a previous post over your comments/observations.......

FXHermit.........so far the banks have been pretty successful at pumping out the bilge water and if what Jamie Diamon did by front running the last FOMC is an indicator that may play all right for a while as it has essentially since Mar 2009.

As for social change.......???........don't think that is happening soon. The elite is too entrenched, too smart and have the dna of survivors on their side not to mention the media and printing presses while the consumer class is much too dumbed down and too enamored of false value to ever lead an uprising to overthrow the so called 1% forget about just getting to the basis of forming an organizational structure designed to have political effect.

You yourself must know the look you get if you raise questions about what people like Mervyn King or Mario Monti are thinking/risking unless you raise such questions in restricted circles like this thread..........miost people look at me like I am from Mars if I bring up what I think are important social/political/ec issues and I seriously doubt I am alone with that experience.

I trade on the premise that the markets are corrupt and rigged.
  • #24,997
  • Mar 25, 2012 2:22pm Mar 25, 2012 2:22pm
.........All I need is to make some money soon to retired to some remote place and not be around when all this crazynes unfold, harsh times ahead, me beleive..........very bad unrest I foresee........
The Chonchy
  • #24,998
  • Mar 25, 2012 2:23pm Mar 25, 2012 2:23pm
Quoting chonchy
........ wow deep......


Yeah, how do we use that sort of stuff in our trading. Ya got me. I don't know. I leave all that stuff behind when I put on my tin foil hat and enter the "Trading Zone" (play Twilight Zone music here). In the Zone the senses become tuned to but one thing - trade that sucker as she moves away from S/R, yeah baby! Oh, O.K., enough of that LOL.
Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #24,999
  • Mar 25, 2012 2:26pm Mar 25, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting roro53
FXhermit..........you probably call your self a hermit for a reason?

I put this on a previous post over your comments/observations.......

FXHermit.........so far the banks have been pretty successful at pumping out the bilge water and if what Jamie Diamon did by front running the last FOMC is an indicator that may play all right for a while as it has essentially since Mar 2009.

As for social change.......???........don't think that is happening soon. The elite is too entrenched, too smart and have the dna of survivors on their side...
........In deed, agree with all your coments, but I also beleive that the general population is begining to know or at least to learn about this isues, and that is a good thing, me think, that this is happening, at least we are one step forward, knowlage.......
The Chonchy
  • #25,000
  • Mar 25, 2012 2:29pm Mar 25, 2012 2:29pm
Quoting fxhermit


Yeah, how do we use that sort of stuff in our trading. Ya got me. I don't know. I leave all that stuff behind when I put on my tin foil hat and enter the "Trading Zone" (play Twilight Zone music here). In the Zone the senses become tuned to but one thing - trade that sucker as she moves away from S/R, yeah baby! Oh, O.K., enough of that LOL.
.......In deed my friend, in deed, away from suport and away from resistance........

Inserted Video


this happens last year..........


and this year is happening again........

Inserted Video
The Chonchy
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