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  • #6,741
  • Mar 23, 2012 3:34am Mar 23, 2012 3:34am
Hi Kanderpro,
I have also noticed not as many likeable set ups on the 1hr TF. I have scaled in to the 15min TF and done a bit of scapling with some success. Although X-Mans system is not a scalping strategy i have been able to use it in the exact same way just expecting less pips per trade. Still using the same MM of 1.5% risk per trade so things are working out pretty well this week. Good luck!
  • #6,742
  • Mar 23, 2012 3:39am Mar 23, 2012 3:39am
ok. i missed out this break out on eur/usd since it happening 1 hour before LO. i dont know that it will move that much before LO.... if it happen on LO candle i would have entered it. ... now a days some movement happen just an hour before LO. sigh..
  • #6,743
  • Mar 23, 2012 3:59am Mar 23, 2012 3:59am
Quoting ljin
ok. i missed out this break out on eur/usd since it happening 1 hour before LO. i dont know that it will move that much before LO.... if it happen on LO candle i would have entered it. ... now a days some movement happen just an hour before LO. sigh..

Frankfurt DAX open one hour before London market open, so when DAX is bullish, movement starts early before LO.
also observe the market movement after Tokyo lunchtime, i.e GMT0600 onwards.

Today is good for Asian breakout since it was very narrow range.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,744
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:03am Mar 23, 2012 4:03am
anyone know what caused the big move before LO? I dont see any critical news scheduled for that time
  • #6,745
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:12am Mar 23, 2012 4:12am
Quoting nonfiction
anyone know what caused the big move before LO? I dont see any critical news scheduled for that time
The more I see, the more I'm sure that scheduled news has rarely something to do with PA other than acting as "catalysts".
This not taking into account the real market movers like NFP.
  • #6,746
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:17am Mar 23, 2012 4:17am
Quoting nonfiction
anyone know what caused the big move before LO? I dont see any critical news scheduled for that time
as the greenback stumbles on rumours about another cut in the RRR by the PBoC, although they were not yet confirmed.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...f-07a5eb97f8bf
  • #6,747
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:19am Mar 23, 2012 4:19am
Hi,

Just close my intraday trade EU. It was quick trade seeing bullish momentum when FFM open and price broke TL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H1 23 Mar Trade 23-3-2012 5-11-25 PM.png Size: 28 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,748
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:21am Mar 23, 2012 4:21am
As far as I see it. about 70% of retail traders would have been bearish leading to London open. I just woke up and wasn't listen to any squawk and there is no important news? So if collective psychology was to go short, why such a huge move?
  • #6,749
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:23am Mar 23, 2012 4:23am
Ahh excellent thanks liberum!

Quoting Liberum
as the greenback stumbles on rumours about another cut in the RRR by the PBoC, although they were not yet confirmed.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...f-07a5eb97f8bf
  • #6,750
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:25am Mar 23, 2012 4:25am
Quoting nonfiction
As far as I see it. about 70% of retail traders would have been bearish leading to London open. I just woke up and wasn't listen to any squawk and there is no important news? So if collective psychology was to go short, why such a huge move?
Price is hard retracing after hitting the 1.329 top for the 3rd time.
  • #6,751
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:33am Mar 23, 2012 4:33am
Quoting nonfiction
Ahh excellent thanks liberum!
Ah, buddies, let's be serious!
Are we supposed to trade upon "unconfirmed rumors"?
Trade what you see on your chart!
  • #6,752
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:41am Mar 23, 2012 4:41am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
Ah, buddies, let's be serious!
Are we supposed to trade upon "unconfirmed rumors"?
Trade what you see on your chart!
Never said I am trading rumors or even news, only gave the link where the reason of the dollar sell-off was stated. Ofcourse you can't trade rumors, mainly because they are on no agenda to see upfront. Therefore a lot of people were caught of guard this morning.

I always trade what the chart says.
  • #6,753
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:47am Mar 23, 2012 4:47am
Quoting Liberum
Never said I am trading rumors or even news, only gave the link where the reason of the dollar sell-off was stated. Ofcourse you can't trade rumors, mainly because they are on no agenda to see upfront. Therefore a lot of people were caught of guard this morning.

I always trade what the chart says.
Yes.
I meant that searching for a reason in a move with hindsight is nonsense. Especially when the supposed reason is "unconfirmed rumors".
We can never act on this stuff. We couldn't today and we couldn't in the future.
So it's a mere waste of time IMHO.
  • #6,754
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:58am Mar 23, 2012 4:58am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
Yes.
I meant that searching for a reason in a move with hindsight is nonsense. Especially when the supposed reason is "unconfirmed rumors".
We can never act on this stuff. We couldn't today and we couldn't in the future.
So it's a mere waste of time IMHO.
ok.................
  • #6,755
  • Mar 23, 2012 5:34am Mar 23, 2012 5:34am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

Just close my intraday trade EU. It was quick trade seeing bullish momentum when FFM open and price broke TL.
you are good trader emmanuel.you are not surprised to see that movement and still enter on the next trade. personally i think it is too late to enter after that big movement before, but then again it prove me wrong.
  • #6,756
  • Mar 23, 2012 6:53am Mar 23, 2012 6:53am
Quoting Kanderpro
Hello Emmanuel7788,
Thanks for being so open about your strategy / method in all your posts.
Someone mentioned yesterday that X-Man's system wasn't working well for them this month and you have said that the market is cautious. So far, I only trade the H1 and I've noticed that there are fewer recognisable H1 signals recently, which I think fits with your "cautious" comment. I'd be grateful to hear any thoughts you have on this "quiet" period e.g. why it's happening, if it's happened much in the past, if you are getting the usual amount of signals...

Hi Kan,

Sorry for this delayed reply. I had to look back to some posts to see if there were trades posted by those who said that they were not doing well trading S3. Unfortunately I don't see them posting their trades so I cannot comment.

I said market is cautious in general referring to both the stock and forex market as I see ranging conditions for many weeks.
Market condition is dynamic and as traders we must keep following the market movement and develop a relatiuonship with it.
It is not easy for inexperienced traders to simply turn on the charts and want to start trading and look for setups. Traders must do their big picture planning every week and look at their charts every frequently even when they are not trading.

I think some common problem with new traders trading S3 is they are too focus on certain type of setups using the APB and ignore the price action using candlesticks patterns and also fail to see higher timeframe price action. Also too much focus wanting to see TDI cross, TDI slope/angle, etc. and also tend to look for trade setups specifically when LO. Often times the setups are before LO, and can occur at mid-Tokyo session around GMT0600.

Jan and Feb months are no different, and there were on an average 3 good trades per week for EU looking at both the Euro and US sessions.
But most of the trade opportunities I see did not have the classic S3 H1 type setups and this makes it difficult for inexperienced traders to spot them.

The other common problem I see is traders do not understand market volatility and do not know how to determine the initial stop loss of their trades/ Also do not have a tested method in managing trade exits. Many try to emulate traders like phx62 who already has lot of experience trading TMS. phx62 through his long trading experience has got many things wired in his brain and he can make trade decisions very quickly. He has posted a lot of trades and also shared his thoughts behind those trades and he had answerd many questions. I seriously doubt anyone can trade they same way he does. I tried and I know myself I cannot trade like him and I don't even think of wanting to emulate his trading style.

S3 H1 is an intraday trading method and from my 5 years of trading, this method is simple but not easy. Besides technical analysis skills, traders must also need more indepth knowlegde in money management, managing trading psychology and must have s certain set of discipline in trading.

Sorry for my rant in trying to answer your question.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,757
  • Mar 23, 2012 7:08am Mar 23, 2012 7:08am
Quoting ljin
you are good trader emmanuel.you are not surprised to see that movement and still enter on the next trade. personally i think it is too late to enter after that big movement before, but then again it prove me wrong.
Hi ljin,

Trading has becomes intuitive after many many many hours of practice. Keep practicing and learn from every trade you did. Do your journal and write down your thoughts for each of your trades with a chart. It will help you in developing to be a better trader.
When you clock your 10,000 trading hours you will be as good as I am.

Keep at it!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,758
  • Mar 23, 2012 7:19am Mar 23, 2012 7:19am
Hello Emmanuel
Thanks for your comprehensive reply. As usual, lots to think about.
Kan
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
  • #6,759
  • Mar 23, 2012 8:45am Mar 23, 2012 8:45am
Lots of ranging between pairs this week. 30 pips up in an hour and 30 pips down in the nxt hour will kill many with just pure TDI reliance. This is what is happening these week.

When ranging happpens, just purely relying on the TDI indicator hurts.

Add in price action (trendlines or whatever ur good at) to have a higher success in trading.

Thus, many successful traders actually always tell ppl to focus on price action more than anything else. indicators for confirmation only.

As highlighted, S3 trading method is really not that simple. If it was simple, there wouldnt be so many questions and so many people unable to trade with consistent results.
  • #6,760
  • Mar 23, 2012 10:53am Mar 23, 2012 10:53am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

Just close my intraday trade EU. It was quick trade seeing bullish momentum when FFM open and price broke TL.
Hey Emmanuel,

Could you please tell me which indicators you use for your pivots and ADR. Also, what period do you use for your ADR? I see some people use 10 days, 14 days. I started this method on TMS and it seemed easy but I've realized I'm going to have to get more insight into price action if I'm going to become consistent. Basically I've been up 2% then down 2% and wind up pretty much at break even everytime... Thanks in advance for your help!
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