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AUD/USD

  • #42,221
  • Mar 22, 2012 1:20am Mar 22, 2012 1:20am
if it doesnt clear the 420 area im going to sleep, watching the aud go up is like nails on a chawk board, not going to see a change of trends till mid april, if that...
  • #42,222
  • Mar 22, 2012 1:25am Mar 22, 2012 1:25am
Quoting Leunammj
hmm i think its binary options? like optionfair and etoro? not so good. i started with binary too. and i can't see anything, just numbers up and down, don't make sense. at least charts on mt4 show u proper time to enter.
hey whats binary, yeah i asked my broker an co. about the lagging chart price, an they told me it was a 'mid-price' or something if thats what you mean? I do have mt4 charts, but just getting familiar with my current 1, look back a page, thats the chart im useing at the moment. Will have a look around tommorrow
  • #42,223
  • Mar 22, 2012 2:11am Mar 22, 2012 2:11am
Quoting Forexia
Piece of crap of this currency just wouldn't go up!! I suspect the Australian Central Bank is intervening in the background. They don't put in large sell of AUD to cause any attention but they put in small orders just enough to slow down the up movement.
"THE dollar is fairly valued and the country's economic health means that it's difficult for the Reserve Bank to justify intervention under current conditions, said the deputy governor."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busi...-1226291549489
  • #42,224
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:57am Mar 22, 2012 3:57am
Still holding my shorts @850 and 660, will add to them once closed and retest 200 moving avarage.. tp open so far, but will be close to parity
  • #42,225
  • Mar 22, 2012 4:00am Mar 22, 2012 4:00am
and i think that rba will have to cut rates sooner or later after pmi data from china, maybe not as soon as april, but within the 2nd quarter
  • #42,226
  • Mar 22, 2012 7:00am Mar 22, 2012 7:00am
Good morning everyone (it's morning here in California). It is hard for a dog to get up early in the morning and run with the bulls when the bears have been out trashing the campground all night long. Good thing I don't use stops or my longs would have been stopped out for sure. There should be some nice buying opportunities when this break down reverses. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif
  • #42,227
  • Mar 22, 2012 7:00am Mar 22, 2012 7:00am
Long Entries
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  • #42,228
  • Mar 22, 2012 7:45am Mar 22, 2012 7:45am
Quoting jerrycollie
Good morning everyone (it's morning here in California). It is hard for a dog to get up early in the morning and run with the bulls when the bears have been out trashing the campground all night long. Good thing I don't use stops or my longs would have been stopped out for sure. There should be some nice buying opportunities when this break down reverses. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif
My sentiments exactly. My longs got stopped out thou. Small loss. No biggie.

We will wait. The bulls shall rise again!!! And we shall do battles at another time!!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #42,229
  • Mar 22, 2012 9:37am Mar 22, 2012 9:37am
Stop fighting in the threads, it's just disruptive, opinions and analysis are appreciated.

I mentioned before the aud is gonna tank from 1.07ish level, yet there were those in the thread who was saying aud was gonna go to 1.13, I never flamed anyone.

For you guys who stick to technicals too much , I have one thing to say, if there's an imbalance in fundamentals, there will be a reversal..... eventually, and that's how we ( the fundamentalists) make money.

China figures were bad for a while, but the AUD remained stubbornly high at 1.07-1.08 ,- even after China has confirmed slower growth , it still remained stubbornly high.
Then finally, BHP's statement and china's recent figures confirmed this fact. And guess what guys, there are more bad news to come, in fact there is a crisis in china now, a debt crisis, but on the private level. Many banks there are holding toxic loans, that are being forced to roll over to avoid massive chaos.

While on the US side, the economy is improving, it might take a while (6 months - 1 year period) before they start raising interest rates. BUT there is no more news of QE3 that can push AUD to 1.08 level.

my play : this is not a buyer's market until at least 1.01
  • #42,230
  • Mar 22, 2012 1:20pm Mar 22, 2012 1:20pm
Quoting rnegoro

China figures were bad for a while, but the AUD remained stubbornly high at 1.07-1.08 ,- even after China has confirmed slower growth , it still remained stubbornly high.
This is why I stick with the technicals. I do, however, make myself aware of the fundamentals. My problem with trading on fundamentals is that you never know when and how a fundamental event is going to be reflected in prices. And worse, sometimes an event will produce the opposite effect than expected on the price. You could be losing tons of pips while waiting for a fundamental event to materialize in prices or when the event produces the opposite effect.

While you trade with technicals and PA's, at least you already see the confirmed impact and there is no waiting or guessworks.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #42,231
  • Mar 22, 2012 1:48pm Mar 22, 2012 1:48pm
Hey guys just placed a long tf 15 at 1.0395 tp 1.0410 sl 1.0380. Think its going to move that way soon?
  • #42,232
  • Mar 22, 2012 3:58pm Mar 22, 2012 3:58pm
Quoting Forexia
They don't put in large sell of AUD to cause any attention but they put in small orders just enough to slow down the up movement.
I'd really like to know how you know this.
  • #42,233
  • Mar 22, 2012 4:46pm Mar 22, 2012 4:46pm
Oh forex gods, why hast thou forsaken thy faithful bulls? We dreamed of green pastures full of dollar bills. Now we are told to eat swap while the bears dine on milk and honey, and drink fine wines. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif
  • #42,234
  • Mar 22, 2012 5:01pm Mar 22, 2012 5:01pm
I think forexia is right. There is a world-wide currency war going on with each country trying to lower the value of its currency in order to increase exports. Up until last week or so, I thought the United States with its high-speed printing presses was winning this war. Maybe the Chinese cut off Bernanke's supply of green ink? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif
  • #42,235
  • Mar 22, 2012 5:15pm Mar 22, 2012 5:15pm
theres a nice candle on a few time frames supporting a bullish rebound + a 300 pipesh move downwards (not seen since the 1st reversal that brought us to this trend) would suggest half of that for a rally upwards...long at 420esh, Tp 500 then next week itll probly get hammered again... but given these past few asia sessions, i wouldnt count on a bull in this pair
  • #42,236
  • Mar 22, 2012 9:45pm Mar 22, 2012 9:45pm
No one talking about AUD? everyone missing its bullishness lately. AUD set for a LONG. 1.0395, SL 1.0375. TP: 1.0500 ?
  • #42,237
  • Mar 22, 2012 10:13pm Mar 22, 2012 10:13pm
I think everybody is fed up with the non-existent movement in AU. Much more profitable to trade other currencies.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #42,238
  • Mar 22, 2012 10:43pm Mar 22, 2012 10:43pm
Quoting Forexia
I think everybody is fed up with the non-existent movement in AU. Much more profitable to trade other currencies.

Well AUDUSD dropped 260 pips or so in 3 days...Why is that not profitable? 260 pips is non-existent movement?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #42,239
  • Mar 22, 2012 10:52pm Mar 22, 2012 10:52pm
I am still SHORT till news
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  • #42,240
  • Mar 22, 2012 11:01pm Mar 22, 2012 11:01pm
look at nzd/usd, hit a bottom, maybe on wave 2 for a nicey bully, as aud an nzd move relativly the same, aud should have not as much of a rally as nzd but, a pip is a pip at the end of the day
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