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  • #6,081
  • Edited 3:51pm Mar 19, 2012 3:38pm | Edited 3:51pm
Quoting rtrs111
I've been checking: pinbars, momos (high thrust) candles that run the BB rail and "L" wedges, with breakout price from middle BB (18 MA), with mixed results so far. And also your strategy long time ago..., LOL!
Edit: not on 5 sec charts though, just looked for H1 candles with no or very small wick. Maybe Tony's entry method, using the very first momo breakout candle on 5 second charts will work great if applied on higher time frames patterns.
1.3178 today on EURUSD was a breakout example, I looked on the m1 since I wasn't there to watch it live and it looked like a broke quick but hard to say if it didn't drop 1.2 pips in the m1 at 14:44 when it breached that line for SL or went 2 pips profit before running to B/E. The break gave about 80 potential pips.

When you say you tested this already I assume you backtested with 99% modeling quality or a good amount of forward testing live.
  • #6,082
  • Mar 19, 2012 5:00pm Mar 19, 2012 5:00pm
Quoting 3clipz3
1.3178 today on EURUSD was a breakout example, I looked on the m1 since I wasn't there to watch it live and it looked like a broke quick but hard to say if it didn't drop 1.2 pips in the m1 at 14:44 when it breached that line for SL or went 2 pips profit before running to B/E. The break gave about 80 potential pips.

When you say you tested this already I assume you backtested with 99% modeling quality or a good amount of forward testing live.
I wish I had that kind of data or to test this live, but instead I just checked by "eyeballing" the charts (whatever MT4 demo data) and searched for potentially profitable breakout patterns, picked out different timeframes and randomly tested different TPs.
For example, I looked for any breakouts after a pinbar, when BO candle had a wick less than 1 pip. Backtesting was not bad, but when I tried to test it with the strategy tester, not so anymore.
Did you run any tests yourself?
r u ready?
  • #6,083
  • Mar 19, 2012 7:11pm Mar 19, 2012 7:11pm
Does someone have a 5 sec chart of what happened today at 10:30? i wanna take a look
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #6,084
  • Mar 19, 2012 7:18pm Mar 19, 2012 7:18pm
Quoting erkro
Hi Tony!

I saw that you have already summertime in Kanada, but we in europe (CET) change to summertime on 25. march.
When you trade your LO trade this week, you really trade the Frankfurt Open, and there is no or very low volatility.
The NO is ok, because they have already summertime. How do you handle it?

Erkro
I trade the LO 1 hour later, it's at 4am here now
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #6,085
  • Mar 19, 2012 7:21pm Mar 19, 2012 7:21pm
Quoting 3clipz3
Thanks for sharing your system Tony. I've looked through a bunch of the latest pages to get an idea of what this strategy is and I like the concept of tiny SL, large TP and quick B/E, so much I decided to join this forum just to post and ask you this:

Have you guys considered trying these same rules on breakouts? I've spent alot of hours watching breakouts and I've noticed that they either bounce completely, bounce slowly to the cliff then break, or just break completely as the stops are triggered and run violently one direction.

I'm looking...
Hi, welcome here... I still trade breakouts on the 5 sec chart. That's how I snowballed the account originally. I look for the first 5-7 pip candle in the beginning of the NY and LO opens. You must turn into a hawk. p.s. do not robot trade these breakouts
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #6,086
  • Edited 10:21pm Mar 19, 2012 9:41pm | Edited 10:21pm
Quoting rtrs111
I wish I had that kind of data or to test this live, but instead I just checked by "eyeballing" the charts (whatever MT4 demo data) and searched for potentially profitable breakout patterns, picked out different timeframes and randomly tested different TPs.
For example, I looked for any breakouts after a pinbar, when BO candle had a wick less than 1 pip. Backtesting was not bad, but when I tried to test it with the strategy tester, not so anymore.
Did you run any tests yourself?
The only tests I use are backtesting in my head what I've witnessed live watching breakouts on Oanda 5sec candle charts. I've also spent most of my time and method designing trades breakout-based using the m1 chart. That's why I can say with certainty that there are a good number of times I see price rapidly break one direction and would like to investigate it's potential. The only way I can think to test this is to demo and see how that goes since even m1 charts will not be able to detect the chronological order of it's pip movement since it's such a tight SL and B/E set.
  • #6,087
  • Mar 20, 2012 1:06am Mar 20, 2012 1:06am
stopped out of a long on london open with -2.3pips

A short trade would be flying off right now
  • #6,088
  • Mar 20, 2012 4:47am Mar 20, 2012 4:47am
Quoting 3clipz3
The only tests I use are backtesting in my head what I've witnessed live watching breakouts on Oanda 5sec candle charts. I've also spent most of my time and method designing trades breakout-based using the m1 chart. That's why I can say with certainty that there are a good number of times I see price rapidly break one direction and would like to investigate it's potential. The only way I can think to test this is to demo and see how that goes since even m1 charts will not be able to detect the chronological order of it's pip movement since it's...
True, it's hard to backtest this (there were some attempts to manipulate the tick data earlier in this thread), the best would be to test it in real time. But like I said, checking candles with no wick at the BO of any TLs, other patterns could still give you some estimation. With this risk:reward ratio, you would need a small winning rate to make money (add to this that you'll move to BE asap, therefore reducing the risk even further). I guess almost any patterns would work. Tony is the expert in trading 5 sec charts (also pls see his other 'Virus' thread).
r u ready?
  • #6,089
  • Edited 2:19pm Mar 21, 2012 4:03am | Edited 2:19pm
Even though this is a small amount of data in a short period of time, I believe a method you rely on to trade for a living or client money should show initial profit in the first week with 10+ trades. Looking back on m1 charts on SpartanFX MT4 from March 14 to now live, testing 22 sample breakouts on H1 major S/R 3 hours+ wide on EURUSD If you want to look at my spreadsheet that might not all make sense to you here it is:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...I&pli=1#gid=53

-Trade loses (1.2spread+1.2SL=2.4)
-Trade reaches +2 profit (1.2spread+2profit=3.2) B/E
-No TP or TS chosen yet

Here are the results:

Max SL before win: 7
Max SL streak: 4
13 SL = (-2.4 x 13 = -31.2 pips)
6 B/E
3 Wins (13.6% success rate)

 

  1. 186 max (friday breakout, hasn't returned yet)
  2. 87 max before returning to B/E
  3. 79 max before returning to B/E (was same minute on the last win)

Using a 60 TP for a total of 180 pips = 149.8 pips net. With a 7 SL max DD wanting a 2% max DD, we can use 0.25% risk per trade, giving us:

(149.8 pips / 2.4 SL = 62.41 / 0.25% = 15.6% return in a week giving a buffer of making up 62 future losses.

Conclusions:

-I find as my thoughts were initially that since I've been looking at my breakouts since 2009, they haven't changed; eventually they break violently without any DD. When a break is strong enough it will bust through several major S/R (sometimes even in the same minute), getting on just one of these with multiple positions could be very profitable.
-The best trade was on a friday, my friends and I refer Friday as Super Breakout Day from our experience, this method might work best on fridays. Testing 6 Fridays (Feb 3 to March 9) -14.2 pips (6SL, 3SL streak), +120 pips (2TP) net 11% or +200 (3TP closing end day) net 20.8%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...I&pli=1#gid=54
-Despite the fact I read somewhere that bounce traders outperform breakout traders because price bounces more often than breaks, because of very high RR it doesn't have to have great success rates.
-It has many ideal qualities we all hear a method should have like: Cut losses quick, let profits run, positive R:R, add to winners not losers. This new concept of super tight SL has opened my mind to a new way to look at trading, I am grateful for this thread.
-Alerts would have to be set as price approaches a trade area as you will have to move B/E once trade quickly hits a +2 profit. If this was a more set and forget method with a 5 pip TS the results would be 33.6 net pips profit 7 wins for 31.8% success, 3 max SL streak. Without a B/E set and 60 TP results would be max SL streak of 10 and net pips of 134.4 (would have to lower risk if want to stay below -2% max DD)

  • #6,090
  • Mar 21, 2012 9:10pm Mar 21, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting 3clipz3
Even though this is a small amount of data in a short period of time, I believe a method you rely on to trade for a living or client money should show initial profit in the first week with 10+ trades...
Actually it would've been 16.1% return, due to compounding (23,501 ROI/yr). If traded with 0.37% risk/pip, would've produced a "healthy" 62.6%/wk (0.9T ROI/yr).
r u ready?
  • #6,091
  • Mar 22, 2012 2:35pm Mar 22, 2012 2:35pm
dear treaders , hello.
first of all , thanks a lot Tony112 , for the topic..
i have just noticed the topic actually and i did find it very interesting.. as further as i can see , this is usefull , profitable and also familiar with my trading style and concept , in some aspects..

i do like to try and observe it myself.. i have only "Oanda 5 sec charts" actually.. any other suggestions for 5 sec charts , please ?
thanks and regards.
  • #6,092
  • Mar 23, 2012 4:42am Mar 23, 2012 4:42am
Price was less than 10 pips to hit my TP this morning, now still floating at about 30 pips profit, let's see...
r u ready?
  • #6,093
  • Mar 26, 2012 11:49am Mar 26, 2012 11:49am
NY is hot today, you're welcome
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #6,094
  • Mar 26, 2012 2:02pm Mar 26, 2012 2:02pm
Hello!

I've been using this system a few months and all is well, however I have moved home and now I am in Madrid in Spain, Europe. Assuming now 23:00, what time would open the markets of New York And London?
  • #6,095
  • Mar 27, 2012 6:21am Mar 27, 2012 6:21am
Still a little unclear about entry ,are you saying that at the open you wait for a spiked candle then wait till it flatlines and place your entry in trend direction with tight stop?also if you get stopped out do you keep putting order on till it goes in your direction.Thanks
  • #6,096
  • Mar 27, 2012 8:01am Mar 27, 2012 8:01am
can you tell me where the current rules for this system are thanks
  • #6,097
  • Mar 27, 2012 11:57pm Mar 27, 2012 11:57pm
Quoting Tony112
NY is hot today, you're welcome
Hi Tony!

I am in this trade, waiting for an epic win of 400 pips!
Are you also in this trade?

Erkro
  • #6,098
  • Mar 28, 2012 6:43am Mar 28, 2012 6:43am
Quoting bodine
can you tell me where the current rules for this system are thanks
Yes please we looking for the final rules and the best broker.
Thanks
  • #6,099
  • Mar 28, 2012 7:21am Mar 28, 2012 7:21am
I was floating too but stopped at BE. No winner for me yet since Feb 1st.
r u ready?
  • #6,100
  • Mar 29, 2012 2:37pm Mar 29, 2012 2:37pm
So if a trade goes +50 pips you are willing to walk away with break-even for a bigger win? Dont' you secure a few pips? Maybe a 1:1 or 2:1 with a SL of 1.2 for EU for example. Hard to believe with such high RR one would be willing to go B/E or TP without securing profit.
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