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  • #10,821
  • Mar 21, 2012 10:54pm Mar 21, 2012 10:54pm
Because the trend is bearish?


Quoting amyc
I pay no attention to fundamentals. I think this move down would have happened over the next 24hrs even if the news was good, bad news just gets it there a bit faster.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,822
  • Mar 21, 2012 10:57pm Mar 21, 2012 10:57pm
Quoting erikte279
Because the trend is bearish?
Trend has been bearish all month and I have been short all month, at some stage that trend will change back to bullish.
  • #10,823
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:01pm Mar 21, 2012 11:01pm
You got it then, what was your first indication of a short trade? I'm curious



Quoting amyc
Trend has been bearish all month and I have been short all month, at some stage that trend will change back to bullish.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,824
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:11pm Mar 21, 2012 11:11pm
Quoting erikte279
You got it then, what was your first indication of a short trade? I'm curious
Exactly the same reason why I am looking for longs soon, range bars and timing.

The chart shows 160 pip range bars. At 367 is the end of this bar and will bring up a blue support same as the one at 830 resistance. If price breaks out of that area then it should move toward parity but if price is capped in that area and then does a 160 pip reversal then that pretty much confirms a bottom for me and i will be longing till 1.11.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au160.GIF Size: 14 KB
  • #10,825
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:12pm Mar 21, 2012 11:12pm
Hi All,
Although I would have normally gone long on the Aussie on 61.8 (Fan) and the pivots in place now, I am a bit cautious to see what happens on the 1.04 level. This is the Neckline of the H&S last October that AU dropped another 700 pips ( Shown in the charts as blue rectangle). This level is very important and if it breaks, next level down is 1.0275, in which case I would doubt a break north of the same level will be coming soon. But for now I am just sitting on my short in GU, and looking for short entries in EU.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au22312a.gif Size: 29 KB
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,826
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:18pm Mar 21, 2012 11:18pm
Never understand a woman


Quoting amyc
Exactly the same reason why I am looking for longs soon, range bars and timing.

The chart shows 160 pip range bars. At 367 is the end of this bar and will bring up a blue support same as the one at 830 resistance. If price breaks out of that area then it should move toward parity but if price is capped in that area and then does a 160 pip reversal then that pretty much confirms a bottom for me and i will be longing till 1.11.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,827
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:20pm Mar 21, 2012 11:20pm
Decent rally out of asia, should be all shorts from here technically and fundamentally.


Quoting tradoholic
Hi All,
Although I would have normally gone long on the Aussie on 61.8 (Fan) and the pivots in place now, I am a bit cautious to see what happens on the 1.04 level. This is the Neckline of the H&S last October that AU dropped another 700 pips ( Shown in the charts as blue rectangle). This level is very important and if it breaks, next level down is 1.0275, in which case I would doubt a break north of the same level will be coming soon. But for now I am just sitting on my short in GU, and looking for short entries in EU.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,828
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:27pm Mar 21, 2012 11:27pm
Amy I was in no way being funny about that. Your analysis dosent conform to my logic of understanding, that's why I dont understand it, it's complicated to me.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,829
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:28pm Mar 21, 2012 11:28pm
Quoting amyc
Exactly the same reason why I am looking for longs soon, range bars and timing.

The chart shows 160 pip range bars. At 367 is the end of this bar and will bring up a blue support same as the one at 830 resistance. If price breaks out of that area then it should move toward parity but if price is capped in that area and then does a 160 pip reversal then that pretty much confirms a bottom for me and i will be longing till 1.11.
Excellent analysis as always. Love your work.
I am of the opinion that bears will take the trophy this time and as you mentioned, parity could well be in reach. But for now I am just on the side line watching the fight.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,830
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:31pm Mar 21, 2012 11:31pm
Quoting erikte279
Amy I was in no way being funny about that. Your analysis dosent conform to my logic of understanding, that's why I dont understand it, it's complicated to me.
That's ok, to me it's very simple.
  • #10,831
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:35pm Mar 21, 2012 11:35pm
Well your the expert here, so 1.11 it is!

Quoting amyc
That's ok, to me it's very simple.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,832
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:40pm Mar 21, 2012 11:40pm
Quoting tradoholic
Excellent analysis as always. Love your work.
I am of the opinion that bears will take the trophy this time and as you mentioned, parity could well be in reach. But for now I am just on the side line watching the fight.
You maybe right but i would rather take the trade and be wrong than decide not too and be wishing i did and then trying to get in at a price that leaves my risk much higher.
Strong day for Australian stock futures so far as well, the close of that should provide some more clues.
  • #10,833
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:48pm Mar 21, 2012 11:48pm
When your on top you've gotta be on the defense of your positions, if not your stops may well be taken.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,834
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:56pm Mar 21, 2012 11:56pm
The Euro rally look's just about capoot.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,835
  • Mar 22, 2012 12:00am Mar 22, 2012 12:00am
I"m short the Euro with a 30 pip stop 400 pip tp.
Annoying Precision
  • #10,836
  • Mar 22, 2012 12:00am Mar 22, 2012 12:00am
Chart Action
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hey2.gif Size: 18 KB
Annoying Precision
  • #10,837
  • Mar 22, 2012 12:05am Mar 22, 2012 12:05am
Good Music while we weight ;-)

Inserted Video
Annoying Precision
  • #10,838
  • Mar 22, 2012 12:46am Mar 22, 2012 12:46am
This will be the last time you here from me for a while. I appreciate all the conversations we've had, good times. But it's time for me to hang up the gloves and move on to greener pastures before I get too old! Think I'll head back to the Farm and start Organic Vegetable Farm, maybe meet a girl!

Good Luck Friends,

Erik
Annoying Precision
  • #10,839
  • Mar 22, 2012 12:56am Mar 22, 2012 12:56am
Quoting amyc
You maybe right but i would rather take the trade and be wrong than decide not too and be wishing i did and then trying to get in at a price that leaves my risk much higher.
Strong day for Australian stock futures so far as well, the close of that should provide some more clues.
Good strategy.
Regarding the ASx200 futures, I have noticed that in the last few days the the Australian market buys up and takes the prices up, but as soon as Europe opens they start selling and this continues into the US session, hence a lower start for the next day. Volumes are also reducing a touch on the actual stocks. This cannot continue on for too long so looking at the charts I am expecting a break out soon which would also show a bit more about the faith of the humble Aussie.
Good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: asx20022312.gif Size: 23 KB
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,840
  • Mar 22, 2012 1:53am Mar 22, 2012 1:53am
Quoting tradoholic
Good strategy.
Regarding the ASx200 futures, I have noticed that in the last few days the the Australian market buys up and takes the prices up, but as soon as Europe opens they start selling and this continues into the US session, hence a lower start for the next day. Volumes are also reducing a touch on the actual stocks. This cannot continue on for too long so looking at the charts I am expecting a break out soon which would also show a bit more about the faith of the humble Aussie.
Good luck.
What time does your asx200 shut? On the spi this week everyday has closed at 4.30pm Sydney time on the lows for the day. Today though complete opposite.
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