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Extreme TMA System

  • #6,481
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:50am Mar 21, 2012 11:50am
Quoting Alorente
Closed EU +5 pips.
So now I just open a beer and relax, because with no selling ant the Coral and 3 support levels under price real close, I think there will be consolidation at this time.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,482
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:51am Mar 21, 2012 11:51am
Quoting Alorente
Closed EU +5 pips.
same here. from now on is quite time, Close of business.
Follow me to the Promised Land
  • #6,483
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:55am Mar 21, 2012 11:55am
Quoting FXDawg
Yes I've been struggling with how to use my stop loss. I've always been a proponent of tight stop losses but I've never traded a system like this. I've always traded more trend following systems.

I'm going to go with much wider stops from now on, and adjust my position size accordingly of course.

I was able to catch the EURJPY and EURUSD fall to make up some of my losses. I'm using smaller position size now so it didn't make it all up but close.

Thanks Al. I've learned a ton these past few weeks and continue to learn every day.

Rick
Stop losses only make the market makers and brokers rich. If you know what you are doing at every moment and donīt hesitate, you donīt need a SL. You exit when you feel you have to. The key to not hesitate is to have the picture of what you want the trade to do, BEFORE you are in it. When you are in the trade, you have already seen the movie so you know what to do, period. No hesitation.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,484
  • Mar 21, 2012 11:59am Mar 21, 2012 11:59am
I am trying to understand the flow of the prince which bounces inside the 15 M TMA which bounces inside the 1H TMA which bounces inside the 4H TMA. Right now, the rules are met for a buy in Eur Jpy. Yet, because the 1H TMA is crossing over the 4H upper TMA band, something is telling me it would not be the best buy, because the 1H TMA will sool change direction resulting in a price drop... Please help me understand this better or correct me if I am wrong
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  • #6,485
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:00pm Mar 21, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting bluewatercat
FXDawg,

Sorry to hear about that. I am not a big fan of recovery either, but I am just now using it for the first time. Some time ago I widened my stops and that has worked well for me. Al has talked about this a lot and his words about giving the price action room to breathe is very important in this strategy and has resonated with me. In my opinion this also plays right into having the right psychology to be confident and know what your plan is and what you can expect from it. I think the expected results for tight stops vs. room to breathe...
Thanks Greg. I'm strongly considering using recovery myself. I did do two successful recovery trades recently. It certainly goes well with this system.

I was able to re-enter EURJPY and EURUSD and catch the fall. Made up for most of my losses. Just another great leaning experience!

Rick
  • #6,486
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:00pm Mar 21, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting Alorente
Stop losses only make the market makers and brokers rich. If you know what you are doing at every moment and donīt hesitate, you donīt need a SL. You exit when you feel you have to. The key to not hesitate is to have the picture of what you want the trade to do, BEFORE you are in it. When you are in the trade, you have already seen the movie so you know what to do, period. No hesitation.
So, now this is no manīs land. I canīt read it. It is all inconclusive so no matter where it goes, I wonīt enter at this time unless ve are against a resistance level like the Open above for GU or FPV for EU.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,487
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:03pm Mar 21, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting Alorente
Stop losses only make the market makers and brokers rich. If you know what you are doing at every moment and donīt hesitate, you donīt need a SL. You exit when you feel you have to. The key to not hesitate is to have the picture of what you want the trade to do, BEFORE you are in it. When you are in the trade, you have already seen the movie so you know what to do, period. No hesitation.
I agree!!!!!!!

I start to make money when I quit to use SLs!

L.
  • #6,488
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:04pm Mar 21, 2012 12:04pm
I hope you guys are getting the feel for how this works. Remember. Picture everything in your mind the way you want it to go. If the script diverges from your picture, just exit and wait for the next clear picture to develop.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,489
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:07pm Mar 21, 2012 12:07pm
Big Al,

Do you have some good rsi + stoch indicator (in the same indicator)??

I need to maximize my screen view!

L.
  • #6,490
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:09pm Mar 21, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting jaau
Big Al,

Do you have some good rsi + stoch indicator (in the same indicator)??

I need to maximize my screen view!

L.
No. I love RSI but I think Stochastic is useless unless you are in a ranging market, but then TMA is much better so why use it?
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,491
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:12pm Mar 21, 2012 12:12pm
Quoting Alorente
No. I love RSI but I think Stochastic is useless unless you are in a ranging market, but then TMA is much better so why use it?
I use to estimate the TIME of the trend. I feel blind without it!

Habits....habits...

L.
  • #6,492
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:15pm Mar 21, 2012 12:15pm
Hi All, , i like your sistem look"s very nice. I begin trade now on real but with small size.
What is your view on S&P 500?
  • #6,493
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:15pm Mar 21, 2012 12:15pm
Quoting Alorente
I hope you guys are getting the feel for how this works. Remember. Picture everything in your mind the way you want it to go. If the script diverges from your picture, just exit and wait for the next clear picture to develop.

Yes Definitely... Thank you so much... Today was extremely helpful... Yes especially "Picture everything in your mind the way you want it to go" that is invaluable.

Thank you for all you do Al. Enjoy your well deserved beer... it's a little early for that here in Califonia
  • #6,494
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:16pm Mar 21, 2012 12:16pm
Quoting lucatony29
Hi All, , i like your sistem look"s very nice. I begin trade now on real but with small size.
What is your view on S&P 500?
i"m short already on SP500
  • #6,495
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:17pm Mar 21, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting lucatony29
Hi All, , i like your system look"s very nice. I begin trade now on real but with small size.
What is your view on S&P 500?
I think itīs going down about 5% to 7%. About 70 to 100 points.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,496
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:21pm Mar 21, 2012 12:21pm
Quoting Alorente
I think itīs going down about 5% to 7%. About 70 to 100 points.
I short him on 1400 with TP at 1390. Thanks All.
  • #6,497
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:25pm Mar 21, 2012 12:25pm
Anyway, I think the market is dead now, but the picture remains the same. Still turning the M15TMA down, followed by the H1 TMA turning down and price will pull both of them to the bottom H4 band. All we need is a test of a resistance area to get back in and continue the ride down.

Trading M5 if you are not used to it, can burn you out. This is what I did the other day when I went 33 and 0 for 12 straight hours. I can do it, but sporadically. I love trading too much to allow myself to burn out. I like H1 much better, trading inside of the trade like today, but overall it is a much more relaxed enterprise and a lot more fun. And much easier too...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,498
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:26pm Mar 21, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting Alorente
Closed EU +5 pips.
Nice Al.. I was out at 4.4 pips
Lets make some green pips
  • #6,499
  • Mar 21, 2012 12:29pm Mar 21, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting Alorente
I hope you guys are getting the feel for how this works. Remember. Picture everything in your mind the way you want it to go. If the script diverges from your picture, just exit and wait for the next clear picture to develop.

I am reading it all and taking as much in as possible.

Could you clarify how you correctly predicted selling the EurUsd and GbpUsd time and time again without waiting for price to hit the top TMA band of at least the M15 let alone the H1.

I think it is beacuse,

1) You would not sell the USD due to your technical analysis.

2) Because on GbpUsd and EurUsd price was at the top bands of M15 H1 and H4 this morning and you have decided that the H1 orange bands are going to the bottom H4 magenta band pulling price down with it.

Just trying to work out how you so confidently knew where price was going.
  • #6,500
  • Edited 1:11pm Mar 21, 2012 12:38pm | Edited 1:11pm
Quoting normtold
I am reading it all and taking as much in as possible.

Could you clarify how you correctly predicted selling the EurUsd and GbpUsd time and time again without waiting for price to hit the top TMA band of at least the M15 let alone the H1.

I think it is beacuse,

1) You would not sell the USD due to your technical analysis.

2) Because on GbpUsd and EurUsd price was at the top bands of M15 H1 and H4 this morning and you have decided that the H1 orange bands are going to the bottom H4 magenta band pulling price down with it.

Just trying to...
The main plan is that. Price revisiting the H4 lower band. Not because I want it to be so, but because that is the way price action moves. Once there is energy in a move, it is much easier to see where price is going. Just analyze where the s/r levels are and when price stalls, calculate where the 50% Fib number is for retracement before it turns around for a new leg down. Watch for stalling action around the S/R levels. Look at how long the first swing down was. The second swing down will likely be similar. 90% of the time, price swings fail at a s/r level, so if you know how long the legs are, look for an s/r level around that distance and expect the turn around there. Again, If you have done it over a million times like I have, it is not hard to do.

Another little secret. Moves with energy, almost all of the time are composed of three impulses and a test. Look at the move down we just had on the M15 chart. You will clearly see three impulses down and then the test. Practically always a 3 step move after the test is followed by horizontal consolidation. Thre is equilibrium in the market and it takes time for new traders to fill the sidelines again with potential orders. Thatīs why I donīt like Renko bars, because they eliminate time from the equation. If you take away time, you are taking away 2 of my 5 senses. Time is critical to feel the market.

Look at past moves and you will see the three impulses and the test over and over again, and in many cases, the impulses will have similar number of pips.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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