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Extreme TMA System

  • #6,321
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:22am Mar 21, 2012 4:22am
Agreed about holding the long term trades- the initial premise has hardly changed. On EUR/US for example, you probably wouldn't consider buying at 1.3300 where there's a 61.8 Fib retracement and a 161.8 extension so it certainly wouldn't make sense to liquidate your shorts there.
  • #6,322
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:23am Mar 21, 2012 4:23am
Quoting pierpaolo960
This is my chartm15 on eur-usd, is it correct? The price is quite out the bands so white short, but the slope norm indics a volue of 0.4, we can see that when price go down his value go down but only at the end of movement it was at a value of -0.5 or below!
Yes. I agree. EurUsd has tried to break R2 without success, 3 times. Soon, the shorts will see the opportunity and they should jump in. It may take a while longer, but time under R2 works in our favor at this moment.

Of course, anything can happen in Forex. The improbable can and will happen every once in a while. If the technicals deteriorate clearly, there will be time to take a loss, lick your wounds and move on to the next trade. But right now I stay the course.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,323
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:28am Mar 21, 2012 4:28am
Quoting FocusedonFX
Agreed about holding the long term trades- the initial premise has hardly changed. On EUR/US for example, you probably wouldn't consider buying at 1.3300 where there's a 61.8 Fib retracement and a 161.8 extension so it certainly wouldn't make sense to liquidate your shorts there.
Good point. You ask yourself: "Would I buy here with the H1 TMA above the H4 and turning sideways? Would I buy with all indicators showing me clear Bear divergences? The obvious answer is no.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,324
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:29am Mar 21, 2012 4:29am
im short again!



http://i40.tinypic.com/zmi908.jpg

moriremos con las botas puestas, verdad AL??
MY telegram channel: https://t.me/https://t.me/tnavieurusd
  • #6,325
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:31am Mar 21, 2012 4:31am
Quoting tnavi
im short again!



http://i40.tinypic.com/zmi908.jpg

moriremos con las botas puestas, verdad AL??
Así es.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,326
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:33am Mar 21, 2012 4:33am
As I said, in the end, The Technicals Rule...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,327
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:37am Mar 21, 2012 4:37am
The back of GbpUsd has now been broken...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 28 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,328
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:41am Mar 21, 2012 4:41am
Quoting Alorente
Yes. I agree. EurUsd has tried to break R2 without success, 3 times. Soon, the shorts will see the opportunity and they should jump in. It may take a while longer, but time under R2 works in our favor at this moment.

Of course, anything can happen in Forex. The improbable can and will happen every once in a while. If the technicals deteriorate clearly, there will be time to take a loss, lick your wounds and move on to the next trade. But right now I stay the course.
Yes, but i can see the fail breakout of R2 also without your system, but with price action. How your system help me in the trade?
This is only a fail breakout of R2, i can see nothing plus.
Maybe i'm in fail way but i wont to know how your system work.
Thanks AL!
  • #6,329
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:44am Mar 21, 2012 4:44am
short GU +42 so far. Opposite H4 band looks far. Maybe?? Will see.
Thanks AL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu3-21tma.jpg Size: 116 KB
  • #6,330
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:46am Mar 21, 2012 4:46am
Quoting DerBerliner
thanks flaw .... really I was already hungry waiting for the Vol 2 !
You're welcome but don't thank me, thank Al. I did nothing. flaw
Wishing my last name were LESS
  • #6,331
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:46am Mar 21, 2012 4:46am
some channels, trendlines and resistances...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #6,332
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:47am Mar 21, 2012 4:47am
Big Al.

Looks like a good short on eurjpy and usdjpy?

L.
  • #6,333
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:49am Mar 21, 2012 4:49am
Quoting jaau
Big Al.

Looks like a good short on eurjpy and usdjpy?

L.
The Yen is a weak currency because of money printing galore. I would rather stick with Usd pairs at this time and I would not go short Usd.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,334
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:50am Mar 21, 2012 4:50am
Quoting Alorente
The Yen is a weak currency because of money printing galore. I would rather stick with Usd pairs at this time and I would not go short Usd.
Very good advice.

L.
  • #6,335
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:50am Mar 21, 2012 4:50am
Quoting nanningbob
There isnt that much difference between the two. The key thought is if you get to the third level the 1.1.3.3 will recover quicker there (3 lot versus 2 third level however, 3 lot versus 5 lot on the 4th) and the 1.1.2.4 will recover more quickly on the 4th level (2 lot to 2 lot 3rd but also 4 lot to 4 lot at the 4th level). My experience has been that I rarely go past 4 levels and also 3rd levels are more common to hit. So you will recover faster 1.1.3.3 since the third level is hit more often than the 4th level. In my trading when ever I add the...
I'm not using MT4 to place live trades so I have to handle the positioning of recovery trades and their TPs manually. Does anyone have a spreadsheet to calculate the values? Something where you can enter the price of the original trade, the gap between trades and the recovery method (1.1.2.4 etc) and it spits out the TP for each level.

If not, I'll try and put one together and post it (but don't hold your breath, I'm rubbish with Excel).

PB
  • #6,336
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:54am Mar 21, 2012 4:54am
Quoting pixelboy
I'm not using MT4 to place live trades so I have to handle the positioning of recovery trades and their TPs manually. Does anyone have a spreadsheet to calculate the values? Something where you can enter the price of the original trade, the gap between trades and the recovery method (1.1.2.4 etc) and it spits out the TP for each level.

If not, I'll try and put one together and post it (but don't hold your breath, I'm rubbish with Excel).

PB
Good suggestion. I´m not much better than you with Excel. Maybe we can get a volunteer...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,337
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:55am Mar 21, 2012 4:55am
Quoting Alorente
Observe how similar A and B are in the GbpUsd chart below:

1- H1 TMA over H4 TMA and turning downwards.

2- Price executing almost identical formation in both cases.

3- Very similar divergences (White lines) in the Slope indicator.

I continue to expect a similar result in both cases.
I'm hoping so...still got my GBPUSD recovery trade running from last week. Still only at L2. Today's budget announcement should give it a good shove one way or another.

PB
  • #6,338
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:55am Mar 21, 2012 4:55am
tp=1h 200sma...

Al's classic chart pattern playing out now it appears.

thanks Al,

Steve
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #6,339
  • Mar 21, 2012 4:58am Mar 21, 2012 4:58am
Quoting stevewide
tp=1h 200sma...

Al's classic chart pattern playing out now it appears.

thanks Al,

Steve
GbpUsd first has to turn the M15 TMA channel downward, so it will be a while, but it looks like the path downward has begun.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #6,340
  • Mar 21, 2012 5:01am Mar 21, 2012 5:01am
Quoting Alorente
GbpUsd first has to turn the M15 TMA channel downward, so it will be a while, but it looks like the path downward has begun.
EurUsd also has to work on the M15 TMA channel to turn it down. After that, the H1 TMA channel should follow and finally we´ll head for the opposite band of H4 TMA. This will take time, probably till Friday to complete.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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