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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #10,781
  • Mar 19, 2012 5:58am Mar 19, 2012 5:58am
Good Morning Traders
I bet there are many gap-lovers on this thread.
I’ve seen many discussions here about 1M and 5M gaps, weekend gaps, daily gaps etc, etc, however a big gap on 4H chart has been totally overlooked.

I am still targeting 1.29800 in my trades, though Friday wasn’t my lucky day.
I’ve been closed on SL, having first 50+pips profit in the morning.
Nevertheless, I still believe this big 4H gap MUST be closed first before any further northbound strong movement appears.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The big battle between bears and bulls probably will take place near 1.3100-1.3080 zone, (marked as decision zone on charts)
If BULLs hold this level and price bounce above 1.3170 we could possibly see 1.32400 pretty soon (see BULLISH chart) and my GAP theory rejected.
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On the other had if 1.30800 area breaks, I’d expect further depreciation and hopefully 1.29800 will close this gap for good. (see BEARISH chart)
Good Luck everybody.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,782
  • Mar 19, 2012 6:12am Mar 19, 2012 6:12am
Quoting halkins
Good Morning Traders
I bet there are many gap-lovers on this thread.
I’ve seen many discussions here about 1M and 5M gaps, weekend gaps, daily gaps etc, etc, however a big gap on 4H chart has been totally overlooked.

I am still targeting 1.29800 in my trades, though Friday wasn’t my lucky day.
[color=black][font=Verdana]I’ve been closed on SL, having first 50+pips profit in the...
Hi, Halkins. Interesting how you target that gap. I would have thought that gap was closed by the spike down a few weeks ago and last week's low closed the gap of that spike. And on a different timezone chart, say, 5pm EDT chart there was no gap at all. I have last week's low as gap closing plus a fib target for a 4H 50% retracement to 13003. That's where I closed short and went long.
  • #10,783
  • Mar 19, 2012 6:19am Mar 19, 2012 6:19am
Quoting Oshawa
Hi, Halkins. Interesting how you target that gap. I would have thought that gap was closed by the spike down a few weeks ago and last week's low closed the gap of that spike. And on a different timezone chart, say, 5pm EDT chart there was no gap at all. I have last week's low as gap closing plus a fib target for a 4H 50% retracement to 13003. That's where I closed short and went long.
As you can see on my charts last time we saw 1.29750 was Feb16th.
Since then we haven't touched neither break this level.
The lowest low was probably 1.30030.
I think it's still heading south to reTEST this area...
Thanks for comment
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  • #10,784
  • Mar 19, 2012 3:44pm Mar 19, 2012 3:44pm
my thoughts on EU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu20312.gif Size: 23 KB
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  • #10,785
  • Mar 19, 2012 5:13pm Mar 19, 2012 5:13pm
Quoting tradoholic
my thoughts on EU
Looks promising.
Would that be a foundation of new head & shoulders on Daily?
I'll wait to see a sound price action on those Fibo levels, as price has made tricky movements recently...
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  • #10,786
  • Mar 19, 2012 6:12pm Mar 19, 2012 6:12pm
Quoting halkins
Looks promising.
Would that be a foundation of new head & shoulders on Daily?
...
Hi,
That is right. Also if you have a look at 1Hr chart you will see a completion of a Cup and Handle, reversal would normally be quite expected. On a larger
picture you will also see a Christmas tree that base the points to 1.28xx. Nowadays I dont follow chart shapes as the market does what it likes and is very unpredictable. Still Fibo levels play out pretty well. I have just added 88.2 level to my fan levels. GU is also showing similar opportunities in shorting. Waiting to see what PA does there as well.

Good Luck.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu20312.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu20312.gif Size: 24 KB
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  • #10,787
  • Mar 19, 2012 6:25pm Mar 19, 2012 6:25pm
I didn't wait.. Look for some retrace and maybe more with all lock in with a few, but thats a big bull bar there..

AU may be better short play for Asia with possibile evening star pattern on 4hr and 0600 for R..GL!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,788
  • Mar 19, 2012 6:39pm Mar 19, 2012 6:39pm
Quoting Chillypiper
AU may be better short play for Asia with possibile evening star pattern on 4hr and 0600 for R..GL!
Agreed. I closed my long on AU after the close of that doji and will await the policy meeting minutes before re-entering either long or short. If I had to make a guess I would say that there will be a drop in price to 1.0535 before heading north yet again. Will have to wait and play the game as it occurs! GL
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #10,789
  • Mar 20, 2012 12:38am Mar 20, 2012 12:38am
Quoting MarcVUM
Agreed. I closed my long on AU after the close of that doji and will await the policy meeting minutes before re-entering either long or short. If I had to make a guess I would say that there will be a drop in price to 1.0535 before heading north yet again. Will have to wait and play the game as it occurs! GL
Just a note, the last time the S&P touched the mid line fork, it dropped almost 30% the next month. It is there again. Lets see what it does this time in April. Interesting!.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,790
  • Mar 20, 2012 1:00am Mar 20, 2012 1:00am
Quoting tradoholic
Just a note, the last time the S&P touched the mid line fork, it dropped almost 30% the next month. It is there again. Lets see what it does this time in April. Interesting!.
Hi Tradoholic

My charts say 1450 before the drop, I think Q3/Q4 it will move down. It should be .382 of the move from March 09 so about 300 points.
I see au moving from 1.12ish to 91ish over the same period.
  • #10,791
  • Mar 20, 2012 1:43am Mar 20, 2012 1:43am
Hope you got in Marc. I was able to add on the news spike and closed about 1/2 @ tp 1.. with tp 2 @ 0535 ish tp 3 @ 0490.. need 0580 R to hold the bulls as lower tf shows possible rev. I hate this part, so I'll take a nap.GL!

Quoting MarcVUM
Agreed. I closed my long on AU after the close of that doji and will await the policy meeting minutes before re-entering either long or short. If I had to make a guess I would say that there will be a drop in price to 1.0535 before heading north yet again. Will have to wait and play the game as it occurs! GL
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,792
  • Mar 20, 2012 2:02am Mar 20, 2012 2:02am
Hi Guys

I miss when we were all a group on ff, i miss having a smart group of people to exchange views with. What is everyone up to these days?
  • #10,793
  • Mar 20, 2012 6:43am Mar 20, 2012 6:43am
Quoting amyc
Hi Tradoholic

My charts say 1450 before the drop, I think Q3/Q4 it will move down. It should be .382 of the move from March 09 so about 300 points.
I see au moving from 1.12ish to 91ish over the same period.
Hi Amy,
Nice to see and read your posts again. I have 1456 as my next level reversal point, which also falls on the Fibo expansion level as well. I get a date of around mid to end May for the initial drop if I work on my fibo time Zones. 1100 is what I expect to see, but if this scenario materialises I dont think it will stop there.
Lets hope for the best and good luck.
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  • #10,794
  • Mar 20, 2012 11:37am Mar 20, 2012 11:37am
Wow! I made all tp with just a little bit still running..Looking to flip north here with a re-test of the rejection of supply, or I'll go to 5m and try and work in a possison..GL!

Hey Amy, I'm not much of conversationalist, but.um kinda know what you mean. Let's learn, share, have fun.. Lets make some pips!

Quoting Chillypiper
Hope you got in Marc. I was able to add on the news spike and closed about 1/2 @ tp 1.. with tp 2 @ 0535 ish tp 3 @ 0490.. need 0580 R to hold the bulls as lower tf shows possible rev. I hate this part, so I'll take a nap.GL!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 4h.gif Size: 52 KB
  • #10,795
  • Mar 20, 2012 3:31pm Mar 20, 2012 3:31pm
Quoting Chillypiper
Wow! I made all tp with just a little bit still running..Looking to flip north here with a re-test of the rejection of supply, or I'll go to 5m and try and work in a possison..GL!
Well done.... BTW thanks for your post earlier, I got in AU and GU, missed my entry in EU by 25 pips.
1.0482 is very important for AU. I moved my SL to 1.053 and staying short for the Asian session to follow suite. Aussie 200 is set to start the day on the weaker note which should also put pressure on the currency.
Fundamentally, yesterdays drop came straight after the comments made by BHP that demand from China for their products have slowed down, I expect the down trend to last for a while. here is the link for it/
http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/au...-demand-117557 good luck
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  • #10,796
  • Mar 20, 2012 4:54pm Mar 20, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting tradoholic
Hi Amy,
Nice to see and read your posts again. I have 1456 as my next level reversal point, which also falls on the Fibo expansion level as well. I get a date of around mid to end May for the initial drop if I work on my fibo time Zones. 1100 is what I expect to see, but if this scenario materialises I dont think it will stop there.
Lets hope for the best and good luck.
I have different thoughts to that, I think any drop later this year is a major buying opportunity for much much higher prices before it drops massively into the end of the decade. I wouldn't be at all suprised to see the dow at 16-20,000 by 2015ish and then drop 60-80% from there.
That is what I see at the moment but that could change, I will just play the charts month by month.
  • #10,797
  • Mar 20, 2012 5:26pm Mar 20, 2012 5:26pm
Quoting amyc
I have different thoughts to that, I think any drop later this year is a major buying opportunity for much much higher prices before it drops massively into the end of the decade. I wouldn't be at all suprised to see the dow at 16-20,000 by 2015ish and then drop 60-80% from there.
That is what I see at the moment but that could change, I will just play the charts month by month.
I see what you mean, I have the same levels on my charts as well. As you correctly said, its best to keep playing the charts month by month. Good luck and all the best.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: s&p 2132012.gif Size: 23 KB
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  • #10,798
  • Mar 20, 2012 6:19pm Mar 20, 2012 6:19pm
Thank you for the heads/up and link ! I'm not a big fundie guy when it comes to long term. Swing trader/Scalper, I am. I try to let the market decide..Indices are huge though. Let's see how the Asia session treats NY/London H or Low on AU EU is one thing I'm looking for right now. And UJ looks ready to drop!

Glad you were able to grab some there too.I enjoy your post sir your good chartist Cheers mate and GL!

NZD data in 10m..fyi

Quoting tradoholic
Well done.... BTW thanks for your post earlier, I got in AU and GU, missed my entry in EU by 25 pips.
1.0482 is very important for AU. I moved my SL to 1.053 and staying short for the Asian session to follow suite. Aussie 200 is set to start the day on the weaker note which should also put pressure on the currency.
Fundamentally, yesterdays drop came straight after the comments made by BHP that demand from China for their products have slowed down, I expect the down trend to last for a while. here is the link for it/
http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/au...-demand-117557...
  • #10,799
  • Mar 20, 2012 7:17pm Mar 20, 2012 7:17pm
Quoting Chillypiper
Hope you got in Marc. I was able to add on the news spike and closed about 1/2 @ tp 1.. with tp 2 @ 0535 ish tp 3 @ 0490.. need 0580 R to hold the bulls as lower tf shows possible rev. I hate this part, so I'll take a nap.GL!
Ya, I got some but closed it late last night before hitting my head on the pillow. I bet there where a few angry people with that northbound knee jerk reaction to the news. I'm neutral right now looking for an opportunity to get back in but I see 1.0371 as an area that may create one heck of a bounce.

Amy, I too miss our group on FF. I am slowly getting more time on my charts as my daughter gets older. Today (the first day of Spring) is her 1st birthday!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: evelyn.jpg Size: 159 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #10,800
  • Mar 20, 2012 7:34pm Mar 20, 2012 7:34pm
Quoting MarcVUM


Amy, I too miss our group on FF. I am slowly getting more time on my charts as my daughter gets older. Today (the first day of Spring) is her 1st birthday!
Hey Marc, she is super cute!
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