james16 Chart Thread

Hmmmmm

Come on baby!

I am playing this one at the moment... took some profit already, BE and looking for some retracement to add...

Hi Meshka,

No offence, but people come here to learn, no one cares if you're in a winning trade or not. I'd imagine people would like to know what your entry criteria was, and how you plan to manage your trade, neither of which you have mentioned.

What's the plan when/if price gets to the obvious pivot at 1.52?

SGRB1,

sorry for my laziness. so my entry criteria was inside bars break-up at BRN 1.5000 initial stp was below 1.4900, recently I closed half my position at the 1.5119 and moved stp to BE (breakeven). plan at the 1.5200 is to move my stp higher and maybe even close whole position - it depends how price will react to this zone. If it will shot through it I will just move my stop below it... if it will struggle there I will consider to close all and will look for reentry...
now i am looking to add - if price will drop below 1.5100 and will show some signs of rejection of 1.5000 place. otherwise will be satisfied with my halfpostion profit

Some thoughts on that

one more entry - sorry it is profitable too will post my losers too.. promise.

entry criteria - BEOB at the ceiling of box, , lower high than previuos high, USDJPY is itchy to correct

first target - bottom of the box, then stp to BE and will pray to move lower

Thanks for explaining. 1.5 looks like a good place for adding as you said, after all that previous resistance.

Keep us updated!

SG

Your charts always remind of the importance recognising the supply and demand areas, aswell as the pivots.

Cheers,
SG

You never know, this may be a spankin trade

Thanks SG. A trading toolbox isn't complete without SD

Just wanted to mention something I do on BE trades that seems to help me look at them in a positive light. I always take my BE trade to 1/2 a pip or so on the plus side so it is a slight winner. So on a $1,000 account my BE (breakeven) trade would end up at about a $1 or 2 winner. May be a bit silly but it adds up and helps stomach these BE trades which are well over 50% of my system.

yes my BE is always 2-5 pips in profit too ...

lol

Can you explain "price has compressed on the way up" please?

I understand it to mean we just rose with no correction? Is that right? What's behind that in terms of SD?

buy orders have been consumed.... so we might drop pretty fast since there are no buy orders ''left'' in this area

Wow. Let me just add to the..
OMGHOWMANYTHANKYOUPOSTSARETHERE!?
as this Thread and what I have managed to troll my way through the rest of the forum in the last month has been Much more than an education to me. I'm only on page25 of James16's thread but even that has been worth more than any paid course.
When I first started trading a month ago I started off going in blind and making trades on a whim and with no MM whatsoever (purely I didn't know it at first) sometimes risking half my account, now I trade 1-2% max per, but sometimes double-up to choose different exit points.. It's very likely that I still overanalyse, but that will take a long time to correct.

I reset my account and started fresh with 5K (a likely number for when I livetrade) after going to the Knowledge to Action course this weekend. I read all the crap online about them, but quite honestly after the end of the course I was actually more than happy with what I paid for in terms of an education, but maybe feeling a bit dismayed at the fact that the Real traders who taught me were down to earth people who told us that it would take 12months to achieve amazing profits unlike Greg who at the free seminar made it seem like we would 'live like kings' after two days training. The rest of the courses and their master trader sections are extremely expensive, but again I have no doubt that they are worth it. If I make that kind of money from trading their initial methods I will be more than glad to pay for the rest of the courses albeit that they total around 120K.

So I am reading various books and will be keeping in contact with the rest who attended the course to see how things go with them, but here is my first somewhat logical trade(s):



20/3/2012-8:21GMT-EUR/USD:

Please note I wrote all of my usual thoughts down live while watching the charts, so excuse if its a tad crazy. Didnt scratch out more than 7 words in total while writing this, so more current-sight than hindsight:

Long Trend by Daily Chart; Hourly chart (on left) shows very low test bar that ends higher (its first green after OHLC details) - another indication that day in general will be bullish. MACD histogram on hourly showing overbought and tendency towards change, MACD, MA and Histo on 1minute showed heavy indications of trend change plus several low test bars prior and 'Stretched-Limits Doji'(my own terminology, dont know common name sorry), so entered on confirmation of uptrend following stretchdoji. Entered at 1.3207 and 1.3208 four bars later as another Low Test occurs and [MACD and MA cross plus histo shows positive] confirms uptrend.
Stop Loss @ 1.3108, Take Profit @ 1.3274. 1Minute chart - Yes, I know, you all say I'm mad, but please realise I am also checking several other timeframes simultaneously.. also I'm trying to get used to the data feed at this speed so that when I do shift to 4Hr/Daily my brain will still operate at 1Min Speeds -> similar to how I learn piano pieces at great speed then slow them down later (which helped greatly on Beethoven's 21st Sonata), an unconscious practiced action is easier to repeat.
Several more Low Test bars follow and price breaks above established pivot point. Price tests below pivot point, rejected. Midtest/'Mid-Doji' as I like to call em. Then 4 Buyer Bars, one of which Doji, 1 encompassed, 1 sword signals end of uptrend phase. Testing lows and highs on 3 Seller Bars, rejected, then 2x Lower Seller Bars indicates uptrend and Buyer Bar confirms. Price rallies up a phase, stabilises for a bar then becomes dbl-bar same length, then Low Test, Mid-Sell-Drop, Low Test, Mid-Buy-Rise, Low+High Test, then Another big Low Test with MACD indicating huge 'current' rise.
(We at the end of 7seller bars just after I thought of backing out fyi)
Another 'Stretch-Doji' indicates both down and upward pressure, more down than up, thus next downtrend phase has arrived -> becomes slight downtrend with selling-low-test indicating want for change. Extreme Low-test-buyer-bar confirms and trend continues back up. MACD histo indicates trend will likely still rise after seller bar, confirmed by upwards buyer bar with Low-test. Bears try push price down but market rejects and opposing trend phase begins. Market rejects extreme lows creating low test sell bar. Downtrend continues but large amount of lower test bars indicates market not happy with lower prices. Market tries for uptrend, rejected. MACD and Histo show indication of trend change. Market tests past original low (back where I thought about entereing trade initially but waited for confirmation) and changes back to uptrend. Once rejected (Low Test) MACD indicates direction will likely change back upwards. Upward seller bars indicate confirmation of this, and MACD agrreing plus indicating imminent change at crossover point.

MACD crossover happens and price starts shooting back upward again - Decide around this point to invest another two 1% trades as feeling towards uptrend is very good based on historical data analysed so far for day. Went Long @ 1.3181 after MACD-histo bounced from peak after crossover and tested SL (RED LINE).

Three similar size Buyer Bars with higher opens and closes in each confirms uptrend phase, followed by slight downtrend that tests First Major low peak as a Sword/LowTest. Uptrend continues with two long buyer Doji's then back down to test 2nd Major Low Peak. (PPL on hourly charts at this point see end of HUGE seller bar and decide now is good time to buy as it is also touching 50EMA) but MACD on Hourly showing potential for rise. Price tests between angular trending support and resistance, then 4 concurrent Low-Test-Seller-Bars and trend looks set to head upward. Price starts heading north 10:30GMT, confirmed 10:45 with LowTest-Buy.

Market undecided, drifting between S&R points. 11:15 crossover MACD, trend upwards and RSI backs up strong Buy Move, which is then rejected at new peak below pivot, drops down until inside-bar-low-test, 3 buyer bars - two of which low test and similar size, MACD confirms uptrend phase and price continues to above Entry Point/Initial-Low. Several touches and dips below entry point. 11:45 Price breaks heavily South and dips just below Daily Trend Line, then recovers and tries for second dip below daily trendline but rejected.

Extreme Low Test Bar @12:10, trend reverts back up. Downtrend at 12:17, Uptrend starts 12:20. 12:47 - Uptrend tests WAY below established low for uptrend and breaks upward.

1Hour MACD showing signs at this point of imminent uptrend. 13:16 - Uptrend tests at 1.3189x3 towards 4th test @13:29, hits a volatile downtrend/uptrend area (another point I almost got out of the trade for fear of losing!) but for holding out the price burst northwards confirming indication of MACD.

Exited trades @ 1.3223(4) @ 13:56(7).
Total Profit: 2.6% of Account.

Anything I missed would be great, sorry again for the long-winded-ness!

Thanks Jonas

A bit about compression here

Supply and demand is really built into everything you do when you analyze a chart. It's about understanding a situation. Supply is sell demand is buy. That's all it means. Now its understanding that everything on our chart is just that. Previous buy and sell orders.

For example we look for the close of a pinbar to be within the prior bar. THere is a reason for this. It shows who is in control more. Now that doesn't mean any bar that closes within the other bar is a reversal. It's just another thing to gauge the strength or nature of the markets that have been executed(since that is what we see)

For example people often try to pick bottoms with super tiny pinbars. We explain it as super tiny pinbar vs the trend. And that is enough to get the basics, but you want to then begin to think about why that is the case.

When we see a "wick" on a bar don't think reversal, think consumption of orders. Then think what are the strengths of those orders. If you have a weak closing bar, then the path of least resistance becomes where those orders were used up.


The one thing is not to be confused, it's built into our chart through support/resistance and understanding PA. As you gain more exposure to charts you will see these "little things" which help pull the basics together better.

Here is a chart with just some of those basics. Again keep it simple you don't need to talk about it in a complicated way just think about things you do logically. This goes for any tool you use in trading. If it doesn't make sense in a simple logical way it's probably useless, or not being used right.

Here was a chart I had open, you can find this on any and old charts. It's simple, and its just another way to understand deeper things about our bars. And how our bars are part of a bigger story. This is when this stuff becomes fun because you really have a better idea of what you are looking at. That doesn't make things perfect, it helps give us a better edge.

Best
Mike

I'm just wondering what you guys think. We have soe divergence and a good bearish candle. I was just wondering what people look at when divergence is present. It would've been nice if it was a DHLC and the close below the 88 level.